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Economy, GeoPolitics, Resources May 22, 2013

Turkmenistan to start production at giant gas field

Turkmenistan plans to begin production at Galkynysh, the world’s second largest gas field, by June 30, which will allow it boost exports to Asia and help Europe lessen its dependence on Russian gas.

Turkmenistan, a post-Soviet Central Asian country of 5.5 million which borders Afghanistan and Iran, holds the world’s fourth-largest natural gas riches after Russia, Iran and Qatar. British auditor Gaffney, Cline & Associates has estimated the reserves of Galkynysh, named after the Turkmen word for “renaissance,” at 13.1 trillion to 21.2 trillion cubic metres.

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Military, Sci/Tech May 22, 2013

India to use geo-stationery satellites for missile defence

India has launched an ambitious programme to use its array of geo-stationary satellites (G-sats) to monitor missile activities in an area of 6,000 km. With this, the country’s constellation of G-sats will become the first line of defence in its anti-missile shield. This programme is independent of the observation grid installed by defence and intelligence agencies. The advantage of using geo-stationary satellites is their fixed position at a height of 36,000 km and synchronised with the earth’s movement.

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Flashpoints, Military Buildup May 20, 2013

China deploys Su-27 fighters in Tibet, can target key Indian air bases

China’s all-weather fighter base in Tibet is now widening its range of options in the event of a conflict with India. Intelligence intercepts and satellite monitoring has confirmed that China may have to some extent overcome Tibet’s extreme altitude and temperatures to operationalise an all-weather airfield near the Tibetan capital Lhasa. The airfield is Gonkar, where China has deployed Su-27 fighters. Sources told CNN-IBN that the Gonkar airfield will enable Chinese fighters to widen their selection of Indian targets from Ladakh to Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh

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Economy, GeoPolitics, Resources May 20, 2013

Strife hangs over China billions in Myanmar

China is spending billions to develop Kyaukpyu as its international gateway in Myanmar, but the development threatens to be derailed by communal violence. “Kyaukpyu is the new gateway to China and Asean. Kyaukpyu is the ocean exit for China. Kyaukpyu offers the shortest trade route from India to China. The port city in Rakhine state, on the northwest coast of Myanmar, saves ships 5,000 kilometres of sailing through the Straits of Malacca to China. Kyaukpyu lies next to the offshore Shwe gas fields in the Bay of Bengal, the Southeast Asian country’s biggest gas project.

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Crisis, Economy, Risks May 18, 2013

India at elevated risk of downgrade to junk status credit rating

India is still at significant risk of having its credit rating downgraded to junk status by Standard & Poor’s, despite the government’s efforts to secure an upgrade. S&P on Friday reiterated its negative outlook on India, with its rating sitting just one notch above “junk”.

“The negative outlook signals at least a one-in-three likelihood of a downgrade within the next 12 months,” S&P said. “High fiscal deficits and a heavy government debt burden remain the most significant constraints on our sovereign ratings on India.

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Military Buildup, News May 18, 2013

CIS & Russia plans to deploy troops along Tajik-Afghan border

Russia remains concerned about the volatile situation in Afghanistan, fearing the return of the Taliban and other terrorist groups to power once the US-led coalition troops leave Afghanistan by the end of next year. Predicting instability in the violence-wracked country, Russia plans to deploy troops on the Tajik-Afghan border to prevent the spillover of violence into Russia. Moscow’s envoy to Kabul, Andrey Avetisyan, told Reuters that if Russia didn’t guard its border with Afghanistan, it might face multiple challenges, ranging from the transport of narcotics to terrorism, and therefore the only solution was to guard the border.

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Analysis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military Buildup May 18, 2013

The BRIC countries are becoming the world’s new global navy

Offshore from Syria, Russia’s navy is conducting probably its largest naval deployment outside its own waters since the Soviet breakup. The Chinese navy is in another potential confrontation today with Japan in the East China Sea, and raising questions about where it is headed next.

But the BRIC nations as a whole—a force in the global economic conversation since the acronym was coined by Goldman Sachs to refer to the high-growth economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China—are becoming an increasing naval presence on the high seas.

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Diplomacy, GeoPolitics, Military Buildup, News May 16, 2013

Karzai to visit India; Afghans look for enhanced defence ties

Ahead of its President’s visit here from May 20, Afghanistan on Thursday said it was looking for enhanced defence cooperation with India, from where it was expecting supply of lethal and non-lethal military equipment.

The two sides will discuss a range of issues of mutual concern and interest and will discuss cooperation at a “critical time” for Afghanistan, which is witnessing the withdrawal of NATO combat troops, the envoy said.

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GeoPolitics, Military Buildup, Strategic Interests May 15, 2013

Intelligent hawk eyes to keep strict vigil over Indian Ocean region

India’s long-range maritime snooping and anti-submarine warfare capabilities will get a huge boost when the first of the eight contracted Poseidon-8I aircraft touches down at theArakkonam naval air station in Tamil Nadu on Wednesday.

Armed with deadly Harpoon Block-II missiles, MK-54 lightweight torpedoes, rockets and depth charges, these sensor and radar-packed aircraft will be the country’s “intelligent hawk eyes” over theIndian Ocean Region (IOR) that is increasingly getting militarized.

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Analysis, Flashpoints, Military, Risks May 14, 2013

‘India preparing for a possible two-front war with Pak, China’

India continues to view Pakistan as the “real threat” even though it is adjusting its military strategy to include the possibility of a limited two-front war with both Pakistan and China, the first Blue Book on India published by a Chinese think tank said.

Pakistan is India’s main “real threat” to maintain a high degree of vigilance and preparedness, the summary of the Blue Book released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, (CASS) said. The report says Indian military deployment on land is mainly fixated against Pakistan but in recent times, it is also being adjusted for both China and Pakistan.

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Analysis, Development, GeoPolitics, Military Buildup May 14, 2013

India To Add Navy Bases, Expand Coastline Security Sensors

Addressing the top commanders of the Indian Navy on Tuesday, Defence Minister A.K. Antony announced that additional naval bases and air stations are required to extend the Navy’s reach.

“Antony said the construction of additional bases and naval air stations in Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep & Minicoy Islands is necessary to further extend our operational reach,” said a Defence Ministry statement. India is concerned about the growing Chinese maritime presence in the Indian Ocean, said an Indian Navy official.

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GeoPolitics, Intelligentsia May 13, 2013

India-Pakistan spy games take deadly turn

For someone who spent a lonely life in a Pakistani jail for more than two decades of his life, the public farewell that Sarabjit Singh received on his death was rather remarkable.

After news broke that Singh – held by Pakistan since 1990 for allegedly being a spy and plotting two bomb attacks that killed 14 – had succumbed to his injuries after being beaten by fellow inmates, anger and outrage swept India. Stung by the mood on the street, the government organised a state funeral for him – televised live after a visibly embarrassed Pakistan sent back his body.

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GeoPolitics, Military Buildup, Stratagem May 13, 2013

China flexes muscle in Indian Ocean, Indian Navy concerned

Increasing presence of the Chinese maritime forces in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and disciplinary issues in the force are expected to be discussed by the top Navy brass in their commanders’ conference starting on Tuesday.

The Navy has been concerned over the increasing presence of Chinese navy’s submarines and other warships in the IOR. In a recent report submitted to the defence ministry, the Integrated Defence Staff headquarters had informed the government quoting the data by American agencies that 22 encounters of Chinese submarines have taken place outside its territorial waters in the IOR.

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Economy, GeoPolitics, Resources May 13, 2013

Myanmar Pipelines to Benefit China

Two pipelines in the highlands of northeast Myanmar will soon begin pumping oil and gas into China, representing a major step in Beijing’s quest for energy security. The $2.5 billion pipeline project, scheduled for completion this month, is part of China’s land-based network of import routes that includes completed pipelines from Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Russia. In a region increasingly defined by its quest for energy, the new pipelines could help China tip the geopolitical landscape in its favor.

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Resources May 11, 2013

Arctic rising as economic, security hot spot

The icy Arctic is emerging as a global economic hot spot — and one that is becoming a security concern for the United States as world powers jockey to tap its vast energy resources and stake out unclaimed territories.

Diplomats from eight Arctic nations, including U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, will meet this week over how to protect the thawing region as its waterways increasingly open to commercial shipping traffic. U.S. officials estimate the Arctic holds 13 percent of the world’s undiscovered oil reserves and 30 percent of undiscovered gas deposits.

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Analysis, Border Incursion, Strategic Interests May 6, 2013

India to give up Chumar post for Chinese withdrawal?

Although the government maintained on Monday that no concessions were offered to the Chinese to end the face off in east Ladakh, India forces appear to have agreed to the removal of bunkers built by the army in Chumar close to the line of actual control (LAC) to facilitate an agreement.

Sources in the security establishment familiar with the negotiations and the local topography told TOI that the 21-day confrontation on Ladakh’s desolate Depsang plains ended only after the Indian Army agreed to demolish bunkers it had built in the region of Chumar near the LAC.

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Analysis, Border Incursion, Conflict, GeoPolitics, Military May 6, 2013

India-China pullback: what happened behind the scenes

However, NDTV has learnt from sources that the stand-off was resolved partly due to the halting of construction of bunkers by Indian Army in the Chumar sector of southern Ladakh, which borders Himachal Pradesh.

The Indian Army was reportedly building seven bunkers in Chumar. The general area of Chumar is disputed and claimed by both sides. According to existing agreements, neither side is allowed to construct any permanent structure, more so if they are either offensive or defensive in nature. The assurance that has been reportedly given to China is that the constructions of the bunkers will be stopped for the time being.

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Intelligentsia, Sci/Tech, SiGiNT May 5, 2013

Pure Madness: U.S. Aims to Force Web Services to Compromise Message Encryption

The FBI is asking for is the ability to fine those companies that don’t comply with a wiretap order, even if they’re technically unable to do so within a time limit set by the FBI.

In other words, if you can’t provide the feds with a back door to your system, the government will keep piling on fines until you go out of business. The idea, of course, is to compel companies that provide secure communications to also build in a means for the feds carry out get their wiretaps.

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Development, Diplomacy, Economy, Strategic Interests May 5, 2013

In a $100 million move to counter China, India to upgrade Iran’s Chabahar port

In a strategically significant move to counter China’s presence in the region, India has announced that it will upgrade Iran’s crucial Chabahar port that gives a transit route to land-locked Afghanistan.

India’s decision was conveyed by Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid in Tehran today during his meeting with his counterpart. An expert team from India will visit Iran to assess investment needed for the upgradation of the port on the Iran-Pakistan border facing the Arabian Sea.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military Buildup May 2, 2013

Indian Army lists counters to Chinese incursion

The army on Wednesday briefed the UPA government on the standoff with China in eastern Ladakh, giving it a slew of options to deal with the Chinese incursion, including a proposal to increase troop levels on the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

Indian soldiers have been eyeball-to-eyeball with the Chinese in the Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO) sector since April 15, after Chinese soldiers pitched tents 19km inside the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control. Army sources have maintained that it is possible to cut off the supply lines of Chinese troops, but some in the military establishment believe it could escalate tensions along the disputed border.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military Buildup May 2, 2013

Chinese incursion may snowball into Kargil-like situation: BJP

BJP today cautioned that the Chinese incursions into Indian territory in Ladakh could snowball into a “Kargil-like” situation and urged the government to take the issue seriously instead of treating it as merely a local issue. “The Prime Minister has said the incursions in Ladakh are a localised issue. To say so is wrong. After all, what had happened in Kargil?” BJP Vice-President Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi told reporters. Incidentally, NDA was in power when the Kargil conflict took place in 1999. The then government was taken by surprise when the incursions from Pakistan were detected. Naqvi said India should give up its “confused and contradictory” policy towards China and take some serious measures.

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Analysis, Development, Economy, Flashpoints, Military, Powerplay April 29, 2013

China’s ruthless foreign policy is changing the world in dangerous ways

Analyzing Beijing’s foreign policy is a relatively simple exercise. That’s because, unlike the United States and other Western nations, China doesn’t even pretend to operate on any other principle except naked self-interest. On one hand, China has courted Israel as a partner in developing Mediterranean gas fields — but it also has been happy to do business with Israel’s arch-enemy, Iran, and has sold weapons that ended up in Hezbollah’s arsenal. In South Asia, meanwhile, China has cynically helped Pakistan check India’s regional role, even as China’s state-controlled press has warned Pakistan that Beijing may “intervene militarily” in South Asia if Pakistani-origin jihadis continue to infiltrate Muslim areas of Western China.

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Border Incursion, Crisis, Flashpoints, Powerplay April 29, 2013

PLA banner in Ladakh says ‘You are in China’ but Govt insists no intrusion

With the Sino-India standoff in Ladakh now in it’s third week, Chinese are showing no signs of withdrawing from the territory they occupied after their incursion in Ladakh two weeks ago. On Monday news reports said Chinese troops have erected an additional tent in the Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) sector raising to five the number of such structures in the area. The Chinese troops have also deployed Molosser dogs to keep a vigil, according to latest reports on Monday from the site of incursion, 70 km south of Burtse in Ladakh division. A banner hoisted outside the camp reads in English “you are in Chinese side” with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) personnel maintaining a round-the-clock vigil, official sources said.

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Border Incursion, Crisis, Flashpoints, Military Buildup, Stratagem April 29, 2013

Himalayan tensions serve US’ rebalancing strategy

The current tensions on the disputed India-China border – known delightfully for its vagueness as the ‘Line of Actual Control’ – in the western sector of the Ladakh region bordering China’s Xinjiang Autonomous Region hark back to the scenario five decades ago when little skirmishes snowballed into a major outbreak of hostility. Fortunately, however, this time around there is a fundamental difference, too, which obviates the danger of a catastrophic slide to armed conflict. On a systemic plane, there are disquieting signs that the Indian establishment has not been pulling together on the country’s China policy and this disconnect, which has been suspected through the recent past, threatens to introduce its own disharmony.

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Strategic Interests April 28, 2013

US seeks military presence in Maldives

The intriguing ‘leak’ of a draft Status of Forces Agreement [SOFA] between the United States and the Maldivian government has led to reluctant confirmation by both countries that they are indeed involved in discussion with each other to conclude such an agreement.

The draft agreement “incorporates the principal provisions and necessary authorisations for the temporary presence and activities of United States forces in the Republic of Maldives and, in the specific situations indicated herein, the presence and activities of United States contractors in the Republic of Maldives.”

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Analysis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military April 27, 2013

Energy Resources: China, India spar over Persian Gulf oil

China’s plan to build a second aircraft carrier and the Indian navy’s recent test-firing of a submarine-launched cruise missile should be ringing alarm bells in the Persian Gulf. Beijing and New Delhi are squaring off militarily in the Indian Ocean, the key energy artery from the Middle East and Africa to the Asian giants who need the oil and gas to fuel their expanding economies. At the same time, both states — but China in particular — have sharply boosted investment in Middle Eastern and African energy resources.

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Analysis, Diplomacy, Economy April 25, 2013

BRIC Is Out—MIST Is In

A panel of experts at the recent SISO CEO Summit did a great job describing where they’d put their money now—and in five years. Interestingly, they are looking at, and investing in, MIST: Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey. Some say the “S” should stand for South Africa.

In spite of the over-hyped press, Mexico is safe and on the rise. Between rising wages and transportation costs in Asia, the maquiladora business in Mexico is booming. Mexico has more free trade agreements in place than any other country in the world. There are good (privately owned) venues in the major cities and great suppliers, hotels and services.

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Analysis, Economy, GeoPolitics, Strategic Interests April 22, 2013

The Arctic Silk Road: As the U.S. Pivots East, Russia Pivots North

The Arctic Ocean is deceptively vast, spanning 5.4 million square miles. In comparison, Russia in its entirety spans 6.6 million square miles. While most of the Arctic Ocean remains inaccessible, the shrinking of permanent sea ice has roused global economic interest for two reasons. First, the Northern Sea Route runs from the Bering Strait to the Barents Sea, and condenses the traditional “Royal Road” route by about 2500 nautical miles (approximately 10 days’ travel). If viable, the opening of this route would radically alter the transport of goods from Asian industrial hubs to Western consumer markets.

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Border Incursion, Crisis, Military, News April 22, 2013

Indian Army matches China man-for-man on the border

As the Army’s Military Intelligence (MI) and Military Operations (MO) directorates study the Chinese troop incursion into Indian territory at Daulat Beg Oldi, below the towering Karakoram Pass in Ladakh, military analysts are also scanning a newly-released Chinese document for information that might be of help.

Indian military planners who prepare for eventualities like the current PLA incursion spiraling out of control, perhaps even into actual fighting, focus less on total numbers than on the units and formations that can quickly come into action. The White Paper fully corroborates the Army’s estimates of Chinese formations on the Sino-Indian border.

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Analysis, Development, GeoPolitics, Strategic Interests April 21, 2013

Geostrategic Developments: US preoccupation with Sri Lanka

US preoccupation with Sri Lanka’s internal affairs is a cause for concern. Every incident has prompted a comment from the US. If the office of a newspaper is attacked, it is an attack on the independence of the media despite the fact that any number of possibilities not connected with media freedom exists for such attacks.

The compelling reason for US preoccupation with Sri Lanka is attributed to Sri Lanka’s extended engagement with China. The need to counter or balance China’s engagement in Sri Lanka has been recognized by the US and India. While India’s concern has both national and geostrategic ramifications, to the US it is primarily geostrategic.

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Analysis, Crisis, Flashpoints, Military April 21, 2013

The Dragon Has Landed: What does the Chinese incursion into Kashmir mean?

On 15 April, 2013, several dozen soldiers of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) entered as deep as ten kilometers inside the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control in Daulat Beg in Ladakh (Jammu and Kashmir) and set up a camp there. The audacity of the Chinese operation is reflected from the fact that their ground troops were given cover and logistic help by two helicopters to enable them to set up a camp on the Indian territory. Why did the Chinese choose Daulat Beg? The Chinese have not forgotten that it was at this place where the Indians had set up its landing strip during the 1962 Sino-Indian War.

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Analysis, Conflict, Flashpoints, Risks April 18, 2013

Next Great War and the 24-year cycle

“The year 2014 can be expected to usher in another major war involving the U.S.” The threat of war against the United States is making headlines and roiling investors’ nerves. While full-scale war is likely not imminent, it’s something worth considering in light of where we stand in the long-term War Cycle.

To answer this question we need first to realize where we are in the context of the 24-year cycle. This particular cycle, a subset of the Kress 120-year cycle, has been identified as the long-term “war cycle” among industrialized countries. The most recent 24-year cycle bottom occurred in October 1990. This ended a vicious bear market for the stock market.

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Analysis, Economy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Strategic Interests April 18, 2013

Evolving strategic competition in the Indian Ocean

The Indian ocean once regarded as a ‘neglected ocean’ has, today, become the hub of political, strategic and economic activities because of the presence of conventional and nuclear vessels of the major powers in the area and because of its own economic and strategic significance. The ocean contains several important minerals: 80.7% of world extraction of gold, 56.6 % of Tin, 28.5 % of manganese, 25.2 % nickel and 77.3% natural rubber. Highest tonnage of the world goods, 65% of world oil, and 35% of the gas, located in the littoral states, passes through it. The region today is an arena of contemporary geopolitics.

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Analysis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Powerplay, Stratagem April 14, 2013

China’s new stealth wars

In the way China made land grabs across the Himalayas in the 1950s by launching furtive encroachments, it is now waging separate stealth wars—without firing a single shot—to change the status quo in the South and East China Seas, on the line of control with India, and on international river flows. Although China has risen from a backward, poor state to a global economic powerhouse, the key elements in its statecraft and strategic doctrine have not changed. Since the Mao Zedong era, China has adhered to ancient theorist Sun Tzu’s advice, “The ability to subdue the enemy without any battle is the ultimate reflection of the most supreme strategy.”

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Military, News April 12, 2013

Inside China: PLA strategist reflects military’s mainstream

One of China’s most influential military strategists has made headlines by saying that a new, lethal strain of bird flu is a “U.S. bio-psychological weapon” conspiracy designed to harm China.

Senior Col. Dai Xu, an air force officer in the People’s Liberation Army, has written several best-sellers, mostly on U.S. military strategy toward China, and enjoys a national following. He is a prominent voice inside China on military strategy and national security.Though many in the West view him as an aberration, Col. Dai is a core member of China’s strategic community and his views are backed by a huge following in Chinese military circles.

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Analysis, Conflict, Military Buildup, Strategic Interests April 10, 2013

Analysis – In bitter irony for China, North Korea helps further U.S. strategic goals

“We understand what kind of regime North Korea is, but we also understand that North Korea is playing games,” said Sun Zhe, director of the Center for U.S-China Relations at Beijing’s Tsinghua University.

“Most importantly, we are complaining that the United States is using military drills as an excuse to continue to do this (rebalancing), putting up B-2s and other advanced weapons systems,” he said. B-2 and B-52 bombers, radar-evading F-22s and anti-missile system vessels like the USS John S. McCain represented the initial U.S. response to North Korea

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Development, Military Buildup, News March 29, 2013

Pakistan Navy commissions 3rd Marine battalion at strategic Gwadar port

In order to further strengthen the defence of Gwadar Port and to enhance the security of vital PN assets and installations along the western coasts, Pakistan Navy has achieved a significant milestone by commissioning the 3rd Pak Marines Battalion. The commissioning ceremony was held today at Gwadar. Vice Chief of Naval Staff Vice Admiral Muhammad Shafiq was the chief guest on the occasion. Addressing the ceremony, the chief guest said that at present the country is faced with internal and external threats, which makes security today’s main concern.

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Analysis, Diplomacy, Economy, GeoPolitics, Resources March 27, 2013

Leviathan Realpolitik: Russia’s new Middle East energy game

Only too aware of the threat of east Mediterranean supply if Europe is able to diversify away from Russian gas dependency, Moscow has been steadily feting Israel to buy into a piece of the action.Moscow has already advanced a $3.5 billion loan and attempted to gain more leverage over Cyprus’ economic and energy assets during the recent bitter negotiations in the banking crisis.

The Kremlin is playing a much bigger game. Gazprom is already eyeing a role in the development of Israel’s gigantic Leviathan gas field. With its estimated 25 tcf of gas Leviathan is due to come on-stream by 2016. And the eastern Mediterranean bonanza is potentially huge. The US Geological Survey estimates the eastern Mediterranean Levant Basin contains around 123 tcf of gas and 1.7 billion barrels of oil.

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Intelligentsia, ISR, Stratagem March 19, 2013

China’s satellite deals with neighbours jolt Indian security agencies into action

China has sparked off a fresh scare in India’s national security establishment, this time with its little-known collaboration with neighbouring countries’ space-related programmes, adding a new dimension to fears among intelligence agencies the eastern neighbour was encircling India strategically with large communication networks. A string of satellite deals China has struck with Sri Lanka, potential space-related partnerships in Maldives and Bangladesh and their security implications have raised concern in New Delhi.

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Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military Buildup March 18, 2013

China replaces Britain in world’s top five arms exporters: report

China has become the world’s fifth-largest arms exporter, a respected Sweden-based think tank said on Monday, its highest ranking since the Cold War, with Pakistan the main recipient.

China’s volume of weapons exports between 2008 and 2012 rose 162 percent compared to the previous five year period, with its share of the global arms trade rising from 2 percent to 5 percent, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said. China replaces Britain in the top five arms-dealing countries between 2008 and 2012, a group dominated by the United States and Russia, which accounted for 30 percent and 26 percent of weapons exports, SIPRI said.

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Analysis, Diplomacy, GeoPolitics, Military, Strategic Interests March 13, 2013

Japan, Sri Lanka to beef up maritime security alliance with eye on China

Japan plans to strengthen its maritime security alliance with Sri Lanka to curb China’s growing influence on countries with Indian Ocean coastlines. A joint statement on maritime security cooperation will be issued after a meeting between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa on March 14, sources said.

China, which replaced Japan as the largest aid provider to Sri Lanka in 2009, has been helping with construction of a number of port facilities in countries around India in a strategy known as the “String of Pearls.” A government source said tightening ties with Sri Lanka is “a step toward driving a wedge into the String of Pearls.”

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Analysis, Diplomacy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Stratagem March 13, 2013

India, China military build-up fuelling mutual suspicion

India and China are fuelling mutual suspicion by their ongoing military build-up, even though neither of them currently appear to seek to overturn the strategic balance on their borders, US spy chief said today.

“Neither India nor China currently seeks to overturn the strategic balance on the border or commit provocations that would destabilise the relationship. However, India and China are each increasing their military abilities to respond to a border crisis,” James R Clapper, Director of National Intelligence, said during a US Congressional hearing on global threats.

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Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military Buildup March 11, 2013

India plans ‘mountain strike’ to counter China

Wary of China’s defence modernisation and infrastructure building in the Tibet Autonomous region, India will be raising a new formidable corps-sized formation of 30,000 infantry in the 13th Five-year Plan period that ends in 2022. This new infantry force will be over and above the new Mountain Strike Corps with nearly 40,000 soldiers that India will raise, to act as a counter to China, in the northeastern region. Independent infantry brigades and armoured brigades that are being raised to plug the operational gaps along the 4,057-km-long Line of Actual Control (LAC) and for building offensive capabilities against the giant neighbouring nation’s powerful military.

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Intelligentsia, Stratagem, Strategic Interests March 11, 2013

Strategic dynamics of gwadar and shifting geopolitical alignments

The US and its allies must be viewing this convergence of Chinese, Pakistani and Iranian strategic and economic interests in Gwadar and Balochistan with extreme trepidation. In one fell swoop, the Straits of Hormuz and the Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) to and from the Persian Gulf have come under Chinese oversight.

Furthermore, regional economies are getting integrated “independent” of Western influence and domination. The prospects of a network of oil and gas pipelines (IP, even TAPI) flowing from the Middle East (ME) and CARs to Pakistan and China are that much brighter now.

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Analysis, Crisis, GeoPolitics, Risks March 8, 2013

Arc of Crisis 2.0?

The Indian Ocean remains a tumultuous zone, where a lack of governance along its shores has spawned a series of security chasms offshore. This spillover effect has been most apparent off the Horn of Africa and the Gulf of Aden, where rampant piracy has prompted a continuous rotation of multinational naval taskforces. Meanwhile, an upsurge in Islamic extremism in countries such as Pakistan and Somalia has heightened regional anxiety over maritime terrorism and seaborne infiltration.

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GeoPolitics, Intelligentsia March 7, 2013

Afghanistan wants ISI to be declared a terror outfit, renews demand for its ban

In a recent interview, Afghanistan’s Deputy National Security Adviser (DNSA) Rahmatullah Nabil accused the ISI of plotting terror attacks to destabilise the country. He reportedly said that Afghanistan would push the United States to put the ISI on its terror ban list and demand sanctions on it.

The strongly-worded official Afghan reaction would certainly affect outside efforts to stitch an agreement between Afghanistan and Pakistan on bringing the Taliban into government. However, India refused to back Nabil’s latest call for a ban on the ISI.

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Analysis, Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints, Risks March 5, 2013

Will China’s Consumer Boom Spark U.S. Shortages?

Chinese and Indian consumers are living well and eating well. And that could spark a global crisis. The consumer boom in China and India will touch off global inflation and could lead to food and water riots if investment, policy, and technology don’t keep pace.

Without smart, quick action by the private sector and government alike, surging Chinese and Indian demand for premium foods will lead to commodity volatility, runaway food prices, and worldwide water shortages as the “boomerang effect” brings the unexpected impact of Asian growth to U.S. shores. That’s the conclusion of research by The Boston Consulting Group (BCG). The main findings are presented in “The Boomerang Effect,” a Perspective that is being released today

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Economy, Stratagem March 5, 2013

Sri Lanka takes next step to opening strategic China-built port

Sri Lanka will start storing bunker fuel at the $1.5-billion (U.S.) Hambantota port in June, a senior official said, after years of delays to the Chinese-built installation that sits on strategic shipping lanes, and a key step to making it commercially viable.

The $130-million storage project contains eight tanks of bunker oil for ships and six tanks of aviation fuel and LPG. The port is envisioned as a refuelling and service point for cargo ships which pass a few kilometres away off the southern tip of the Indian Ocean island nation, on one of the world’s busiest east-west shipping lanes.

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Analysis, Military, Stratagem March 4, 2013

The art of war, Chinese style

Here are six of the 1962 principles China replicated in its subsequent aggressions: (1) take the adversary by surprise to maximize political and psychological shock; (2) strike only when the international and regional timing is opportune; (3) hit as fast and as hard as possible by unleashing “human wave” assaults; (4) be willing to take military gambles; (5) mask offense as defense; and (6) wage war with the political objective to “teach a lesson” — an aim publicly acknowledged by Beijing in the 1962 and 1979 attacks.

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Analysis, Crisis, Flashpoints February 26, 2013

How will India respond to civil war in Pakistan?

In 1971, India intervened militarily on behalf of Bengalis in the civil war in East Pakistan, dividing the country in two and helping to create Bangladesh. In 2013, prospects of another civil war in Pakistan — this time one that pits radical Islamists against the secular but authoritarian military — have led once again to questions about what India would do. What would trigger Indian intervention, and who would India support?

In the context of a civil war between Islamists and the army in Pakistan, it is hard to imagine Pakistani refugees streaming into India and triggering intervention as the Bengalis did in 1971.

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Human Rights, Policy, Territorial Dispute February 26, 2013

Indian land grabs in Ethiopia show dark side of south-south co-operation

The idea of south-south co-operation evokes a positive image of solidarity between developing countries through the exchange of resources, technology, and knowledge. It’s an attractive proposition, intended to shift the international balance of power and help developing nations break away from aid dependence and achieve true emancipation from former colonial powers. However, the discourse of south-south co-operation has become a cover for human rights violations involving southern governments and companies.

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Analysis, Flashpoints, Military Buildup February 24, 2013

7 Countries Beefing Up Their Militaries in Today’s More Dangerous World

The balance of power in the world is changing, with many new power players emerging — in some cases re-emerging — with growing militaries that challenges U.S. interests in the world and highlight the increasing security challenges of the 21st century.

While the U.S. ponders cutting its military spending, her competitors and allies are ramping up their military strength to advance their interests in their part of the world and beyond. In Asia, China, Japan, and India stand as the leaders in military spending with an emphasis in quantity for the purpose of improving their standing and to uphold their national pride.

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GeoPolitics, Intelligentsia, ISR, SiGiNT February 24, 2013

India’s Spies Want Data on Every BlackBerry Customer Worldwide

There are about 79 million BlackBerry subscribers worldwide—and India’s government wants to hand its spy agency data on every one of them. In late 2012, back when it was still officially known as Research in Motion, the company behind BlackBerry handsets worked with the Indian government to enable surveillance of Blackberry Messenger and Blackberry Internet Service emails. But now India’s authorities are complaining that they can only spy on communications sent between the estimated 1 million BlackBerry users in India—and they want a list of all BlackBerry handsets across the globe.

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Powerplay February 21, 2013

India – an aspiring hegemon

“India’s grand strategy divides the world into three concentric circles. In the first, which encompasses the immediate neighbourhood, India has sought primacy and a veto over actions of outside powers.” – C. Raja Mohan

India with a population of 1.24 billion and GDP of $2.19 trillion in nominal terms looms large on the South Asian subcontinent. None of the other South Asian countries comes even close to the size of India’s population and economy. In fact, its population and GDP are more than the combined population and GDP of all the other South Asian countries.

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Analysis, Conflict, Flashpoints, Resources, Risks February 19, 2013

Water Wars – Nine Thirsty Regions where H20 Conflict is Threatening

Will armies battle each other, as the cry for “blue gold” gets furious? Will “water wars” be as prevalent as conflict for the “black gold” of oil? Two documentary films have wetted public interest – Blue Gold: World Water Wars, and Last Call at the Oasis, and a dystopia novel – The Water Wars – warns of its imminence.

In actuality, history’s pages are already splashed with dozens of conflicts. In 2,450 B.C. the Sumerian cities of Lagash and Umma warred over Tigris-Euphrates water. More recently, Senegal and Mauritaniabattled in 1989 over grazing rights in the Senegal River Valley – hundreds were killed, 250,000 fled their homes. The Pacific Institute provides an excellent map and timeline of 225 water skirmishes.

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News, Resources February 19, 2013

‘Land Grabbing’: Foreign Investors Buy Up Third World Farmland

A number of developing nations have sold or leased much of their farmland to foreign investors. The list is led by Liberia, whose arable land is 100 percent under foreign ownership.

The process is known as “land grabbing,” and it is affecting countries in Africa, South America, Asia and Eastern Europe. Around half of the farmland of the Philippines is owned by foreign investors. In Ukraine, American companies have secured over one-third of the country’s farmland. Population growth in countries like India and Brazil is driving up demand for cereal crops, and investments in farmlands offer the chance of solid returns.

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Conflict, Crisis, GeoPolitics, History, Strategic Interests February 18, 2013

Kashmir: The Geopolitical Hotspot That Could Lead To A Thermonuclear War

High in the Karakoram, the stubborn armies of India and Pakistan have faced off for 19 years on the Siachen Glacier, the world’s highest battleground and a flash point in the deadly dispute over Kashmir. In this exclusive report, an American writer and photographer spend two months inside the ultimate no-man’s-land, witnessing the human and environmental devastation of a conflict without end. Ten years ago, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency concluded that Kashmir was emerging as the most likely place on earth for a nuclear war to break out.

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Bioethics, Human Rights February 11, 2013

Indian Women Dumped In Field After Mass Sterilisation Campaign

The women had all undergone surgical procedures at a hospital in the Malda district of West Bengal, around 360 kilometres (220 miles) north of Kolkata, which officials admitted was not equipped to accommodate such a large number of patients. The scandal came to light after news channel NDTV aired amateur footage of unconscious women being carried out of the hospital by men and then placed on open land.“This is inhuman and we have ordered a probe into the incident,” he added.

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Human Rights, News, Sci/Tech February 8, 2013

Philadelphia Courts Begin Using Computer Forecasts to Predict Future Criminal Behavior, Determine Jail Time

Judges in the Philadelphia court system are now taking advantage of powerful new computer models to help determine how much jail time an offender should get. Computers have been forecasting weather and economic trends for years, but applying algorithms to human behavior is relatively new. University of Pennsylvania professor Richard Berk, a pioneer in the field, his forecasts, which use an algorithm to predict whether someone will offend again, have been used by city probation and parole officers for about three years, to decide how much supervision a defendant needs.

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GeoPolitics, Strategic Interests February 6, 2013

China’s Return to Port Near Persian Gulf Sets Off Regional Alarm Bells

In a decision raising fresh concern about China’s ambitions in South Asia and the Indian Ocean, Pakistan has agreed to hand over to Chinese control a deep-water port, strategically located near the mouth of the Persian Gulf.

The Pakistani cabinet decision to transfer management of Gwadar to a Chinese government-owned company closes a circle for Beijing, which put up most of the funding a decade ago to build the facility in the first place.

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Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints, Risks February 4, 2013

Rise of China and India could spark UK ‘unrest’

A report published by the Ministry of Defence (mod) said many western economies could stall and decline in the face of the growing economic strength of countries like China and India. Such a situation may spark long periods of recession and growing disaffection within the UK, according to the report looking at trends in south Asia until 2040. It added: “This could subsequently lead to increased incidents of internal unrest, a rise of nationalistic groups and a demand for protectionist economic and defence policies.

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Policy, Strategic Interests February 4, 2013

India irked as China gets Pakistan’s strategic Gwadar port

Pakistan’s cabinet formally agreed to hand over the operation of its strategically located Gwadar port to China on Wednesday. This puts in place China’s famed “string of pearls” strategy which may have significant implications for India.

On Wednesday, the Pakistan cabinet, in one of its last decisions, transferred the operations responsibility of the Gwadar port from Singapore’s PSA (Port of Singapore Authority) International to China’s Overseas Port Holdings. This had been agreed some time ago as PSA International and Pakistani navy fell out over land transfers, security issues and lack of infrastructure. PSA had asked to withdraw from the contract and Pakistan had agreed.

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Diplomacy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Stratagem January 21, 2013

Diplomatic Offensive?!: Abe advocates ‘security diamond’ against China

Since assuming office at the end of 2012, Japan’s new prime minister has started conducting a diplomatic offensive to counteract China’s influence in the Asia-Pacific Region. This diplomatic offensive is an indication of the new Japanese administration’s growing economic and strategic interests in Southeast Asia. Abe wants to curb China’s growing military and commercial clout in the region. He wants to expand Japan’s maritime competence and combine it with the country’s economic strengths. Japan’s new administration wants to strengthen ties with ASEAN

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Crisis, GeoPolitics, Regime Change January 17, 2013

Pakistan’s crisis could end in a military coup as arrest warrant issued for Prime Minister

Experts are not ruling out the possibility of a military takeover in Pakistan after the country’s top court ordered the arrest of the PM. Anti-government protesters continue with their sit-in outside parliament.

An anti-government protest in Islamabad enters its third day as tens of thousands of people demand the resignation of the Pakistan People’s Party’s (PPP) government and that an “impartial,” interim government backed by Pakistan’s powerful army and newly-independent judiciary be formed.

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Border Incursion, Conflict, GeoPolitics, Military January 15, 2013

High alert as Pakistan mobilises troops along Rajasthan, Gujarat borders

Pakistan has deployed more troops across the international borders with Rajasthan and Gujarat in the wake rising tension between the two countries after the killing of Indian soldiers on LoC in Jaamu and Kashmir on January 8.

“A lot of military movement is being noticed in Barmer, Jaisalmer and Jodhpur districts and Gujarat along the international border for the last few days, which is not normal,” BSF sources said. The BSF has launched an ‘operation alert’ along the border. “Patrolling across the border has intesified while defence personnel are constantly on vigil from watch towers,” they said.

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Flashpoints, Military Buildup January 15, 2013

Pak aims to develop smaller lighter nuclear warheads: Report

Expanding its nuclear arsenal at a rapid pace, Pakistan is now aiming to develop smaller and lighter atomic warheads more suitable for use on missiles, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist has said. Pakistan is expected to surpass Britain’s nuclear stockpiles in a decade, the journal said, referring to the rapid development of nuclear warheads by Islamabad.

“Pakistan has shown clear signs of its intention to grow its nuclear arsenal. Most recently, the country has begun to increase its plutonium production capabilities, with two new plutonium production reactors under construction, as well as a new chemical reprocessing facility,” the journal said.

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GeoPolitics, Strategic Interests January 13, 2013

China’s Quietly Sinks New Delhi’s Influence in the Indian Ocean

A quiet Chinese challenge to India’s pre-eminence in South Asia through diplomatic and aid effort has now been extended to small island nations dotting the Indian Ocean. While China, Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asian nations fight over specks of islands and reefs in East and South China Sea, mainly because of undersea resources, islands in the Indian Ocean are emerging as a new focus for struggle. The latest hotly contested arena: Maldives, a chain of 26 islands about 1,000 kilometers due south of India.

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Analysis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military January 13, 2013

China takes on the world; is the army’s influence growing?

Will the confrontation developing in the waters off China engulf us all? There is an explosive situation between China and Japan, an adversarial situation between China and Vietnam, but Vietnam is no such push-over as China knows only too well. February 1979, China invades Vietnam across its 1,000-km border. Vietnam drives back the 600,000-strong Chinese army. (A lesson for India?) This background of hostilities gives a sharp edge to China’s dispute with Vietnam over the Spratly islands.

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Military, Policy January 8, 2013

Pakistan’s new military doctrine under Indian threats

The new military doctrine has been declared by incorporating a new chapter titled ‘sub-conventional warfare’ in the Pakistani army’s ‘Green Book’ which spells out operational preparedness, capacities and objectives of the armed forces. According to the new doctrine, the guerrilla actions from the tribal areas along Afghan border and bomb attacks on armed forces and civilians by certain groups have been identified as the “biggest threat” to national security.

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Development, Military, Policy January 7, 2013

Preparing Indian Soldiers for a 7-Dimensional war

What should be an Indian military doctrine for 21st Century? Further how do we create defence professionals who will fulfill the emerging needs which are increasingly complex in multiple dimensions including potential 360 degree threat spectrum that India face. Today we are facing 7-dimensional wars. Soldiers, who will fight these wars, need to be multi-dimensional. Further, given the education scenario in India the key challenges that India will face to create the 7-D Soldiers of the future, need an open discussion and focus.

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Military, Sci/Tech January 7, 2013

‘China’s anti-satellite weapon a ‘trump card’ against US’

Amid reports that China is gearing up to conduct one more anti-satellite weapons test (ASAT) putting US Global Positioning System (GPS) at risk, Chinese state media today asserted that Beijing had the right to carry out the test as it is a “trump card” against Washington.

China may be gearing up to perform a controversial ASAT test this month, perhaps in the next week or two, US media report said. “In 2007 and 2010, China conducted anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons tests, both on January 11. Rumours circulating for the past few months suggest that some within the US defence and intelligence community believe China is preparing to conduct another ASAT test,”

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Border Incursion, Military January 7, 2013

Pakistan, India clash at disputed border in Kashmir

Pakistani and Indian troops exchanged fire Sunday along their disputed border in divided Kashmir, with each side blaming the other for the flare-up and Pakistan saying one of its soldiers was killed.

Pakistan said Indian troops crossed the de facto border known as the Line of Control and stormed a military post, an accusation denied by the other side.

A Pakistani military statement said the Indian troops came across the frontier in the Haji Pir sector, 80 kilometers north of Islamabad, and “physically raided” a check post named Sawan Patra.

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Analysis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Risks January 2, 2013

Preventing World War III: NATO vs SCO, Avoiding Escalation Between Entrenched and Emerging Powers

The worst-case scenario is a world war between the West — NATO, U.S., EU with Japan-Taiwan-South Korea — and the East—the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) with Russia, China, Central Asia as members and India, Pakistan, Iran as observers. With four nuclear powers on each side, and West versus Islam as a major issue. In the centre is the explosive mix of a divided territory (Israel-Palestine) and Jerusalem, a capital divided by a wall.

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Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military Buildup January 1, 2013

Analysis: U.S. arms sales to Asia set to boom on Pacific “pivot”

U.S. sales of warplanes, anti-missile systems and other costly weapons to China’s and North Korea’s neighbors appear set for significant growth amid regional security jitters.

Strengthening treaty allies and other security partners is central to the White House’s “pivot” toward a Pacific region jolted by maritime territorial disputes in China’s case, and missile and nuclear programs, in North Korea’s.

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Strategic Interests December 29, 2012

China’s Take: Japan, US may lock horns in quest for influence in Myanmar

A series of changes that took place after the current government replaced the military government through the January 2011 elections has brought hope for stability and development in the country, as well as expanded its diplomatic room. This provides Myanmar with opportunities to improve relations with the US and Japan. Against the backdrop of the US “pivot to Asia,” the Obama administration has emphasized Southeast Asia as a strategic focus, and seeks to forge comprehensive strengthened US-ASEAN cooperation.

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Analysis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Strategic Interests December 29, 2012

Sri Lanka Defends China’s Naval Presence in the Indian Ocean

It only takes a quick glance at a world map to see that the Indian Ocean is a vitally strategic pathway for maritime trade. This massive body of water connects four of the great raw material producing regions of the world—East Africa, Australia, Southeast Asia and the Middle East—with the power blocs that are the hungriest for those resources—China, Japan and the European Union.

More than 80 percent of the world’s seaborne hydrocarbon trade transits through Indian Ocean choke points.

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Economy, GeoPolitics December 29, 2012

US renews business interest in brutal Uzbekistan dictatorship

It was reported that the American business delegation, headed by Carolyn Lamm, chairwoman of the American-Uzbekistan Chamber of Commerce (AUCC), and including representatives of over 30 US companies such as Boeing, Solar Turbines, General Motors, Merk, General Electric Energy, Anadarko, Zeppelin International, Case New Holland, Nukem and others, attended the business forum.

Senior Uzbek government officials in charge of the economic sector, including ministers of finance, the economy, foreign economic relations, investments and trade and other high level officials, were also in attendance to brief their guests on the state of Uzbek economy and to discuss possible investment and economic cooperation.

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GeoPolitics, Intelligentsia December 21, 2012

The inside story of the CIA-ISI immunity deal

The US State Department’s decision to extend immunity to two former ISI chiefs in the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks case is in accordance with a clandestine understanding reached between Admiral Mike Mullen and General Ashfaq Kayani during a day-long meeting held at a secluded resort in Oman on February 22, 2011.

The State Department informed a New York federal court on December 19 that the ISI and two of its former director generals enjoyed immunity and cannot be tried in the Mumbai terror attacks case.

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News, Resources December 18, 2012

‘India can expect rising civil unrest as result of massive land grab by investors for commercial projects’

A new research has blamed Indian government agencies and investors for a growing spate of violent clashes in the nation’s forest and tribal areas.

The research, released on the eve of an international conference on land and forest rights, claimed that a massive transfer of resources from the rural poor to investors is underway in India, inciting resistance and conflicts in virtually all states of the country.

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GeoPolitics, Military December 12, 2012

India Expresses Desire for Iron Dome System

India wants the Iron Dome defense system. Defense News reports that India and Israel are cooperating on the development of weapons systems and that India’s main wish is to acquire the Iron Dome on a “buy and build” basis. This means India wants to acquire it and obtain a license from Israel for its manufacture.

An Indian source told Defense News that Israel had agreed to sell the system to India, but was hesitant about selling the technology needed to manufacture it. The U.S., which helped fund the Iron Dome’s development, has not said publicly whether it backs the deal.

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Analysis, Conflict, Flashpoints, Military December 12, 2012

Afghan may be focus of future Indo-Pak rivalry: US

“India worries about a second Mumbai-style terrorist attack from militants backed by Pakistan. A major incident with many casualties and Pakistani fingerprints would put a weakened Indian Government under tremendous pressure to respond with force, with the attendant risk of nuclear miscalculation,” said the report.

Pakistan’s large and fast-growing nuclear arsenal in addition to its doctrine of “first use” is intended to deter and balance against India’s conventional military advantages, said the fifth installment of the ‘Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds,’ of National Intelligence Council (NIC).

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Development, Flashpoints, Military Buildup, Resources December 9, 2012

India’s Secret warship base commissioned to protect assets in South China Sea

The Indian Navy is set to partially commission a secretive new strategic base on its east coast next year that will be the home port for its warships that sail to South East Asia, the South China Sea and the Pacific.

Yesterday, navy chief Admiral Devendra Kumar Joshi had said his force was also practising to deploy in waters that China claims in the South China Sea to protect India’s oil interests off the coast of Vietnam.

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Analysis, Conflict, Flashpoints, Military Buildup December 9, 2012

China Inflicts An Arms Race On Japan – Analysis

China and Japan are both at political and strategic crossroads and their destinies seem to be heading towards an intense arms race if not a direct military clash. Richard Segal has wisely observed that historically we have never had a strong China and a strong Japan at the same time in this region.

Comparatively, it is China that has in the last five years or so that has unleashed a long string of provocative acts against Japan. These provocations have heightened Japanese threat perceptions on China. Heading the list is the recent spate of Chinese and Japanese threats and counter- threats hurled over the Senkaku Islands.

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Diplomacy, GeoPolitics, Military December 9, 2012

Pacific Command: ‘US to back India’s leadership role in Indian Ocean, South Asia’

Seeking a “long-term security relationship” with India, a top US military commander has said his country will support New Delhi’s “leadership role” in the Indian Ocean and South Asia.

The US Pacific Command (PACOM) “will increase its efforts to nurture the strategic partnership and expand engagement with India as well as support her leadership role in the Indian Ocean and South Asia,” PACOM Commander, Admiral Sameul J Locklear III, said in an address to the Asia Society here.

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Intelligentsia, News December 3, 2012

Oklahoma cyber spy school prepares next generation of 007s

Stalking is part of the curriculum in the Cyber Corps, an unusual two-year program at the University of Tulsa that teaches students how to spy in cyberspace, the latest frontier in espionage.

Students learn not only how to rifle through trash, sneak a tracking device onto a car and plant false information on Facebook, they also are taught to write computer viruses, hack digital networks, crack passwords, plant listening devices and mine data from broken cell phones and flash drives. The little-known program has funneled most of its graduates to the CIA and the Pentagon’s National Security Agency, which conducts America’s digital spying.

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Resources, Strategic Interests, Think Tanks December 1, 2012

The Sri Lankan Silk Road

Sri Lanka, the “pearl” of the Indian Ocean, is strategically located within the east-west international shipping passageway. Like the old Silk Road that stretched from the ancient Chinese capital of Xian all the way to ancient Rome, modern China’s strategic and commercial supply line extends over the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea to include the focal transit port of Sri Lanka at the southern tip of India. Today, over 85 percent of China’s energy imports from the Middle East and mineral resources from Africa transit through Sri Lanka and other so-called “string of pearls” ports.

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Analysis, Diplomacy, GeoPolitics, Policy, Stratagem November 28, 2012

Brazil, Turkey, India, Indonesia Key to US-Backed Global Order

The United States should focus increasingly on courting Brazil, India, Indonesia and Turkey, four “global swing states” critical to the preservation of the Western-dominated international order, according to a new report released here Tuesday by two major U.S. think tanks.

“These four nations each possess a large and growing economy, a strategic location in their region and a commitment to democratic institutions. And critically, each nation’s precise international role is now in flux,” they noted.

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Diplomacy, GeoPolitics, Powerplay, Stratagem November 26, 2012

BRICS: The World’s New Banker?

The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) bloc has begun planning its own development bank and a new bailout fund which would be created by pooling together an estimated $240 billion in foreign exchange reserves, according to diplomatic sources. To get a sense of how significant the proposed fund would be, the fund would be larger than the combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of about 150 countries, according to Russia and India Report.

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Black Market, News November 20, 2012

Turkey Top Opium Producer

Nearly 70,000 Turkish farmers in 13 provinces are allowed to plant opium poppy and produce unscratched opium poppy capsules in a 700 million square meter area, a limit set by the United Nations.

The global consumption of opiate, which is a chemical found naturally in the opium poppy plant and has uses for medical and scientific purposes, is nearly 350 tons per year. The largest importer of this substance, the United States, supplies 80 percent of its imports from Turkey and India.

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Diplomacy, GeoPolitics, Strategic Interests November 20, 2012

US−India military ties can alter world power dynamics, says think tank

Suggesting that the US relationship with India has the potential to alter the power dynamics in Asia and the world, a leading US think tank has proposed a deeper military engagement between two countries.

This “can have a range of strategic benefits, including the enhancement of military capabilities, building long−term professional relationships, as well as strategic signalling to allies, partners, and potential adversaries,” says a new report by the Wadhwani Chair in US−India Policy Studies at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

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Analysis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Stratagem, Strategic Interests November 19, 2012

With eye on Beijing, US signals full embrace of Delhi

President Obama’s top national security adviser said on Thursday that the United States has “given a full embrace of India’s rise,” leaving little doubt that Washington sees New Delhi as a strategic counterweight to Beijing regardless of what China, India itself, and the rest of the world thinks of the idea and their response to it.

“It’s a full embrace of India’s rise as a partner,” he repeated. “And again, as two of the most important democracies in the world, it’s an important strategic thrust for us as well.”

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GeoPolitics, Powerplay, Resources, Strategic Interests November 11, 2012

Resource Rapture: Cannonball Run For Untapped Arctic Reserves

The race for a share of the enormous reservoirs of fossil fuel — an estimated 90 billion barrels of undiscovered oil alone — beneath Greenland’s ice sheet in the Arctic Circle is heating up. Some four years after the US Geological Survey came out with its estimates of huge oil and gas reserves in the region, periodically, in ways big and small, the stakes are being raised by the “Arctic Five”.

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Analysis, Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints November 8, 2012

Watch out for instability in West Asia

India’s oil-rich Western neighbourhood, extending from the Arabian Sea to the Bosphorus, is engulfed in conflict arising from sectarian and civilisational rivalries, aggravated by the meddling of external powers. With an arsenal of over 100 nuclear weapons, Pakistan is witnessing a period of internal strife, largely arising from the pernicious role of its military establishment and tensions across its disputed borders with Afghanistan. This conflict, involving radical groups such as the Taliban, Al Qaeda and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, is engulfing Central Asia.

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Conflict, Flashpoints, Military Buildup, Protest November 5, 2012

Is Britain arming oppressive regimes in the Middle East?

Source: CH4 The prime minister is touring Gulf states, including Oman, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), in a bid to sell British-made Typhoon fighter jets and promote the defence industry, which creates over 300,000 jobs. The trip comes just a month after Saudi Arabia was “insulted” by a parliamentary inquiry into the [...]

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Drill, Military, Stratagem November 5, 2012

Washington’s War on Wargaming

The only thing that’s cheap about war is the gaming. The U.S. military services and their assorted war colleges, the Department of Defense, and various think tanks do quite a bit of wargaming of potential conflicts such as Iran. Now, to the military, wargaming doesn’t mean games. It’s actually an analytical technique in the Military Decision Making Process, which essentially means analyzing the likely outcomes of various choices and then making the best one

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Economy, Flashpoints, Resources, Strategic Interests October 25, 2012

The Sino-Indian-Vietnamese Energy Triangle Part 1

According to the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), Vietnam now ranks third in terms of proven oil reserves for the Asia-Pacific region. Vietnam held 4.4 billion barrels (bbl) of proven oil reserves as of January 2012, a marked increase over its 0.6 bbl in 2011. The increase is in part a result of Vietnam’s exploration and development efforts of its offshore fields. Experts claim that as Vietnam intensifies its exploration activities the figure will increase since Vietnam’s waters remain largely under explored.

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Economy, GeoPolitics, Strategic Interests October 24, 2012

Grand Chessboard Pivot: US wants to join Indian Ocean group

The US has shown interest in becoming a dialogue partner in the Indian Ocean grouping, the Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation (IOR-ARC). The US request is being considered by the members of the forum.

India has been chairing the forum for the past two years, and its term will come to an end next year, when Australia will take over from India. There are 19 member nations, from across three continents, and five dialogue partners.

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Analysis, Diplomacy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics October 22, 2012

‘US sowing discord between strategic partners India, China’

“In the face of major global political and economic changes taking place in the world, India is attaching even greater attention to its relations with China. India now considers its relationship with China as an important part of its overall modernisation strategy, and one that is of great significance to global peace and stability,” it said apparently addressing the hardliners in Chinese defence establishment.

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Analysis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics October 15, 2012

Asian powers double defense spending in a decade

Asia’s top powers have doubled defense spending in the past decade, spurred by the explosion in military expenditure by China, new research shows. While troop numbers have remained constant, overall annual spending has grown to $224 billion in 2011, according to a report released Monday by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. Spending particularly accelerated in the second half of the decade. The research covers China, Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan, which account for some 87 percent of Asia’s defense spending.

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Economy, Resources October 9, 2012

China and India – Rivals in Africa

For a while now, China and India have been at the center of growing criticism for going on reckless shopping sprees in Africa in order to feed their growing economies back home. That includes, according to accusations, not shirking away from doing business with countries that have been shunned internationally, like Sudan and Zimbabwe. The citizens of Africa were supposed to have received little benefit these investments. With their resources now robbed, critics say it will be hardly possible for African countries to do business on equal terms.

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