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Tag Archives: diplomatic
GeoPolitics, Military Buildup May 21, 2013

Philippines boosts military to resist ‘bullies’

Philippine President Benigno Aquino on Tuesday announced a US$1.8-billion (S$2.26b) military upgrade to help defend his country’s maritime territory against “bullies”, amid an ever-worsening dispute with China.

The announcement came on the same day that the Philippines filed a protest with China over the “illegal and provocative” presence of a Chinese warship and two other vessels at a Filipino-claimed shoal in the disputed South China Sea. In thinly veiled comments referring to China, Aquino vowed during a speech to mark the navy’s 115th anniversary that the armed forces would be given the resources necessary to protect Philippine sovereignty.

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Diplomacy, Economy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics May 21, 2013

Entangling the dragon in Middle-Eastern quicksands

The quicksands of the Arabian Desert are notorious for swallowing up anyone trying to control the area. Historically, that’s what happened to Turkey, Britain, France, Russia and the US. Sooner or later, all discovered that instead of dominating the Middle East, they ended up being dominated by the region’s never-ending problems. And that may also be the fate of China, the latest power to be lured by the idea that it has to engage in Middle-Eastern diplomacy.

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Flashpoints, Military Buildup May 20, 2013

China deploys Su-27 fighters in Tibet, can target key Indian air bases

China’s all-weather fighter base in Tibet is now widening its range of options in the event of a conflict with India. Intelligence intercepts and satellite monitoring has confirmed that China may have to some extent overcome Tibet’s extreme altitude and temperatures to operationalise an all-weather airfield near the Tibetan capital Lhasa. The airfield is Gonkar, where China has deployed Su-27 fighters. Sources told CNN-IBN that the Gonkar airfield will enable Chinese fighters to widen their selection of Indian targets from Ladakh to Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh

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Analysis, Conflict, GeoPolitics, Powerplay May 17, 2013

Qatar Spends Billions in Syria for Influence, Pays $50,000 per Dissident

“Qatar has spent about three billion dollars in the past two years to support the opposition in Syria, which far exceeds what provided by any other government. However, the Saudi Arabia competes now in leading the bodies providing Syrian opposition with weapons,” the paper said. “The cost of the Qatari intervention in Syria, which is the latest effort of the oil-rich emirate to support an “Arab revolution,” only represents a very small part of the international investment of Qatar,” it added. “Qatar’s support for Islamist groups in the Arab countries puts it in confrontation with the other Gulf States and provokes competition with the Saudi Arabia,”

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GeoPolitics, Military, Policy May 16, 2013

EU to step up security involvement in Somalia

The European Union is to move military training of Somali soldiers from Uganda to Mogadishu in a show of confidence in Somalia’s growing stability after two decades of turmoil, the EU special envoy to Somalia said on Wednesday.

The success of Amisom, made up mostly of Ugandan, Burundian and Kenyan soldiers, has encouraged Western countries to look beyond the scars left by the deaths of U.S. and U.N. soldiers during Somalia’s violent disintegration into civil war in the early 1990s, and increase their engagement. The EU’s training mission, separate from Amisom, has trained some 3,000 Somali soldiers and officers in Uganda since 2010.

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Economy, GeoPolitics, Resources May 11, 2013

Turkish mediterranean energy hub plan faces hurdles

Israel’s rapprochement with onetime strategic ally Turkey is a vital element in Ankara’s drive to become the intercontinental east-west energy hub in the Mediterranean and many expect it to produce an energy alliance that will transform the region.

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Recep Erdogan has transformed his country’s economic prospects through a wide-ranging diplomatic drive aimed at restoring Turkish leadership in the region. He has long sought to transform Turkey, which has no energy resources of its own, into the unassailable central hub for transporting oil and gas from the eastern Mediterranean, the new hot zone, to Europe and maybe to Asia as well.

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GeoPolitics, Integration May 6, 2013

Turkey Sees Future in Asia With Joining SCO

Frustrated in its attempt to join the European Union, NATO-member Turkey last week signed up as a partner with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu described the signing of the SCO cooperation agreement as an historic day for his country, saying Turkey is the first NATO state to establish such a relationship with the SCO. “If we look from a Cold War perspective,” he said, “these may seem like mutually exclusive institutions. However, the Cold War has ended. Turkey won’t be a slave of the Cold War logic.”

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Analysis, Border Incursion, Conflict, GeoPolitics, Military May 6, 2013

India-China pullback: what happened behind the scenes

However, NDTV has learnt from sources that the stand-off was resolved partly due to the halting of construction of bunkers by Indian Army in the Chumar sector of southern Ladakh, which borders Himachal Pradesh.

The Indian Army was reportedly building seven bunkers in Chumar. The general area of Chumar is disputed and claimed by both sides. According to existing agreements, neither side is allowed to construct any permanent structure, more so if they are either offensive or defensive in nature. The assurance that has been reportedly given to China is that the constructions of the bunkers will be stopped for the time being.

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Development, Economy, GeoPolitics, Resources May 6, 2013

In America’s Backyard: China’s Rising Influence In Latin America

Over the past five years, Chinese businesses have been expanding their footprint in Latin America in a number of ways, beginning with enhanced trade to ensure a steady supply of bulk commodities such as oil, copper and soybeans. At this year’s Boao Forum for Asia, for the first time a Latin American sub-forum was created that included the participation of several heads of state from the region.

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Conflict, Flashpoints, Military, Strategic Interests May 2, 2013

Myanmar morphs to US-China proxy battlefield

A new reality is emerging amid all the hype about Myanmar’s democratization process and moves to liberalize its political landscape. Myanmar’s drift away from a tight relationship with China towards closer links with the West is signaling the emergence of a new focal point of confrontation in Asia, one where the interests of Washington and Beijing are beginning to collide.

Rather than being on a path to democracy, Myanmar may find itself instead in the middle of a dangerous and potentially volatile superpower rivalry. That means the traditionally powerful military may not be in the mood to give up its dominant role in politics and society any time soon.

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Border Incursion, Crisis, Flashpoints, Military Buildup, Stratagem April 29, 2013

Himalayan tensions serve US’ rebalancing strategy

The current tensions on the disputed India-China border – known delightfully for its vagueness as the ‘Line of Actual Control’ – in the western sector of the Ladakh region bordering China’s Xinjiang Autonomous Region hark back to the scenario five decades ago when little skirmishes snowballed into a major outbreak of hostility. Fortunately, however, this time around there is a fundamental difference, too, which obviates the danger of a catastrophic slide to armed conflict. On a systemic plane, there are disquieting signs that the Indian establishment has not been pulling together on the country’s China policy and this disconnect, which has been suspected through the recent past, threatens to introduce its own disharmony.

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Analysis, Development, Flashpoints, Military April 26, 2013

North Africa Is Becoming The New Afghanistan

The cost of ignoring Africa is immense—and may be ultimately measured in American lives lost. Left unchecked, Al Qaeda affiliates in North Africa will soon be able to strike at Americans overseas and at home. Ignoring North Africa today is like ignoring Afghanistan in 1998, as Bin Laden’s minions began to plan the September 11 attacks. North Africa is becoming the “new Afghanistan”—a string of toterring and largely ungoverned nations running from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea.

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Analysis, Conflict, Flashpoints, Military, News April 25, 2013

U.S. Marine rapid response force deploying to Spain base

The first of 500 Marines have begun deploying to Spain as part of a new rapid reaction force to respond to threats against U.S. citizens, government personnel or installations in Africa. The new task force is based at Moron Air Base in southern Spain, which provides quick access especially to northern Africa, where security concerns have grown since the September 2012 attack on a U.S. government facility in Benghazi, Libya, a Pentagon official told CNN. When fully operational, the unit will be required to be airborne within six hours of receiving orders, providing the type of rapid response that the Pentagon says was not possible during the Benghazi attack. Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans died during the assault at the U.S. mission and CIA annex.

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Drill, Flashpoints, Military, Strategic Interests April 22, 2013

Taiwan stages live-fire drill in contested Spratlys

Taiwan’s coastguards said Monday that Taipei had staged a live-fire drill within a hotly-contested island chain in the South China Sea, in a move that risks stoking regional tensions.

More than 2,000 rounds of ammunition were fired by garrison forces on Taiwan-administered Taiping, the largest of the Spratly Islands, Wang Chin-wang, chief of the Coast Guard Administration, told parliament. It was Taipei’s first live-fire drill in the Spratlys — claimed in whole or part by Taiwan, China, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Brunei — since long-range mortars and artillery were shifted to Taiping Island in August last year.

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Economy, GeoPolitics, Resources April 16, 2013

Turkey Floats Gas Pipeline Plan With Israel

The Turkish energy minister, Taner Yildiz, says his country would be open to the construction of a pipeline to distribute Israel’s newly discovered gas.

“The issue may become an important topic that the two can cooperate on,” said Ozel. “The Israelis have already made a suggestion to send some of their gas by pipelines to Turkey. And this fits well with Turkey’s grand desire to be the grill full of pipelines from north to south, from east to west, and therefore become on energy matters, if not a hub, certainly an indispensable transition place.”

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Intelligentsia, Strategic Interests April 12, 2013

The Estonia-Russia Border Treaty: Which Scenario Will Prevail?

After years of animosity between Tallinn and Moscow about such delicate issues as the position of the Russian-speaking minority, Estonia’s NATO ambitions and the dramatic course of 20th century history, some sunshine is coming through in Estonian-Russian relations – the countries’ prime ministers met in St. Petersburg late last week and border treaty negotiations are now taking place this week. Historian Jeroen Bult has been following the weather patterns.

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GeoPolitics, Policy, Territorial Dispute April 12, 2013

Iran Considers “Annexing” Azerbaijan

A group of Iranian lawmakers has begun drafting a bill on reattaching Azerbaijan to Iran by updating the terms and conditions of a 19th century treaty that ceded part of modern-day Azerbaijan and most of Armenia to Russian control.

The 1828 Turkmenchay Treaty ended the last war between Russia and Persia and paved the way for St. Petersburg to establish suzerainty over the South Caucasus. (Tehran already had given up its claims on Georgia in the 1813 Treaty of Gulistan.) But the Iranians now argue that there was a critical detail in the fine print.

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NGO, Powerplay April 10, 2013

Vladimir Putin’s hunt targets NGO and election watchdog

THE leading independent election monitoring group in Russia yesterday became the first non-governmental organisation to be prosecuted in President Putin’s nationwide hunt for “foreign agents”.

Golos (Voice) has reported widespread irregularities in recent Russian polls and said in March last year that the presidential election, in which Mr Putin was re-elected for a third term, was not “fair, just and open according to the Russian constitution and international standards”. The Justice Ministry said in a statement on Tuesday that Golos “receives foreign funding and carries out political activities in Russia, thus it fulfils the functions of a foreign agent”. It will present its case in court today.

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Drill, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military April 2, 2013

Georgia says it will further monitor Russian naval exercises

The Georgian Foreign Ministry has announced that Tbilisi expresses deep concern about the unplanned and sudden exercises of the Russian military which go beyond the territory defined by the Vienna Agreement.

Speaking at a briefing on Monday, Deputy Foreign Minister David Zalkaliani said that Georgia will continue to inform the international community on Russian military exercises being held near the maritime borders of the country. The Georgian side is distressed with the fact that near its borders large-scale exercises are conducted, with the date of completion and objectives not reported.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics April 2, 2013

North Korea To Restart Nuclear Reactor, China On High Alert

North Korea’s latest provocative declaration has led China to place its military forces at “Level One” readiness – its highest threat level — and increased its military presence on the border with North Korea in response to the country’s declaration of a “state of war” and threats to conduct missile attacks against the U.S. and South Korea. Tensions have risen on the peninsula since North Korea conducted its third nuclear test last month, sparking a new round of UN-led sanctions.

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Conflict, Flashpoints, Paramilitary March 25, 2013

Central African Republic Rebels in Capital, France Sends Troops

Central African Republic rebels clashed with government forces inside the capital on Saturday as they sought to topple President Francois Bozize, prompting France to send in more troops to secure the international airport.

The Seleka rebel coalition resumed hostilities this week in the mineral-rich former French colony, vowing to oust Bozize whom it accuses of breaking a January peace agreement to integrate its fighters into the army. A Reuters reporter in the northern suburbs of the riverside capital said the rebels had taken control of the neighborhood around Bozize’s private residence, known as PK12. Rebels in civilian clothes had infiltrated other areas, residents said.

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Analysis, CyberOps, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics March 19, 2013

New Cold War: China-USA Economic Espionage War Escalates

Less than six months ago, U.S. Under Secretary of State Robert D. Hormats gave an exclusive interview to Caixin, in which he said that one of the most important tasks in US-China relations was to define differences on intellectual property rights protection and find common solutions within the next six months.

On Feb. 20, the White House released a strategy paper outlining an approach for protecting the trade secrets of U.S. companies. “Emerging trends indicate that the pace of economic espionage and trade secret theft against U.S. corporations is accelerating,”

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Intelligentsia, ISR, Stratagem March 19, 2013

China’s satellite deals with neighbours jolt Indian security agencies into action

China has sparked off a fresh scare in India’s national security establishment, this time with its little-known collaboration with neighbouring countries’ space-related programmes, adding a new dimension to fears among intelligence agencies the eastern neighbour was encircling India strategically with large communication networks. A string of satellite deals China has struck with Sri Lanka, potential space-related partnerships in Maldives and Bangladesh and their security implications have raised concern in New Delhi.

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Conflict, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics March 13, 2013

North Korea threatens to attack South island

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has threatened to “wipe out” a South Korean island as Pyongyang came under new economic and diplomatic fire from US sanctions and UN charges of gross rights abuses.

On a visit to frontline military units on Monday, Kim briefed officers on their mission “to strike” Baengnyeong and turn the island into a “sea of fire”. “Once an order is issued, you should break the waists of the crazy enemies, totally cut their windpipes and thus clearly show them what a real war is like,” Kim was quoted as saying by the Korean Central News Agency.

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Intelligentsia, Stratagem, Strategic Interests March 11, 2013

Strategic dynamics of gwadar and shifting geopolitical alignments

The US and its allies must be viewing this convergence of Chinese, Pakistani and Iranian strategic and economic interests in Gwadar and Balochistan with extreme trepidation. In one fell swoop, the Straits of Hormuz and the Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) to and from the Persian Gulf have come under Chinese oversight.

Furthermore, regional economies are getting integrated “independent” of Western influence and domination. The prospects of a network of oil and gas pipelines (IP, even TAPI) flowing from the Middle East (ME) and CARs to Pakistan and China are that much brighter now.

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Analysis, Conflict, GeoPolitics, Risks March 8, 2013

Why the invasion of Iraq was the single worst foreign policy decision in American history

Inside Iraq, the forces of Sunni-Shia sectarian conflict had been unleashed by the U.S. invasion. That, in turn, was creating the conditions for a proxy war between the U.S. and Iran, similar to the growing proxy war between Israel and Iran inside Lebanon (where another destabilizing event, the U.S.-sanctioned Israeli invasion of 2006, followed in hand). None of this has ever ended. Today, in fact, that proxy war has simply found a fresh host, Syria, with multiple powers using “humanitarian aid” to push and shove their Sunni and Shia avatars around.

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Analysis, Crisis, Diplomacy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics March 7, 2013

Taiwan’s Regional Security Profile Grows

Taipei was slowly realizing — too slowly, perhaps — that President Ma’s “goodwill” notwithstanding, Beijing has continued to threaten the island with more than 1,600 short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, and refuses to take the military option off the table as a means of bringing about “reunification.” Despite the diplomatic truce, Beijing has relentlessly prevented Taiwan from playing the role that a modern, democratic country of 23 million people should be entitled to play within the international community.

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ISR, Military, Stratagem March 4, 2013

Global Information Grid: DARPA’s new TERN program aims for ISR from the sea

Effective 21st-century warfare requires the ability to conduct airborne intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and strike mobile targets anywhere, around the clock. Current technologies, however, have their limitations. Helicopters are relatively limited in the distance and flight time. Fixed-wing manned and unmanned aircraft can fly farther and longer but require either aircraft carriers or large, fixed land bases with runways often longer than a mile. Moreover, establishing these bases or deploying carriers requires substantial financial, diplomatic and security commitments that are incompatible with rapid response.

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Analysis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Stratagem February 25, 2013

Israel playing dirty game in troubled Africa

Israel has long been keen to establish a foothold in parts of Africa, for strategic as well as economic reasons. The vast continent offers relatively accessible (and increasingly fought-over) sources of energy and water, as well as emerging markets. While Israel has been able to establish diplomatic relationships with most non-Muslim African countries, nations such as Mali and Niger have so far refused to formally recognise it. Clearly, Israel would like to convert these nations of the Sahel into friends and a potential rear guard against hostile Arab nations in the north.

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Analysis, Development, Diplomacy, GeoPolitics, Policy, Powerplay February 13, 2013

Qatar seeks a bigger role in Middle East

In Egypt, Libya and Syria, where Qatar tried to play a role post-Arab Spring, it finds itself blamed for much that has gone wrong on a local level. Close ties to Egypt’s new leaders, the Muslim Brotherhood, have alarmed countries like the United Arab Emirates, where the group is banned and which in January said it had foiled a Brotherhood-linked coup plot. Senior officials in the UAE have long believed Qatar has long-term strategy to use the Brotherhood to redraw the region. “There is both greater apprehension and appreciation for Qatar two years after the Arab awakening in the region,”

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Conflict, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics January 22, 2013

PLA Colonel Shuns US Attempts To Build Mini-NATO in Asia-Pacific

A Chinese military officer has warned Australia not to side with the United States and Japan if war breaks out in the East China Sea. America is the global tiger and Japan is Asia’s wolf, and both are now madly biting China.

Colonel Liu’s warning raises the nightmare possibility of Australia having to choose between its dominant economic and security partners as a territorial contest between Japan and China over the Senkaku Islands, also known as the Diaoyu Islands, continues to escalate. China, Japan and Japan’s defence ally, the United States, have trading military and diplomatic warnings over the disputed islands, while China has placed the People’s Liberation Army on combat alert.

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Diplomacy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Stratagem January 21, 2013

Diplomatic Offensive?!: Abe advocates ‘security diamond’ against China

Since assuming office at the end of 2012, Japan’s new prime minister has started conducting a diplomatic offensive to counteract China’s influence in the Asia-Pacific Region. This diplomatic offensive is an indication of the new Japanese administration’s growing economic and strategic interests in Southeast Asia. Abe wants to curb China’s growing military and commercial clout in the region. He wants to expand Japan’s maritime competence and combine it with the country’s economic strengths. Japan’s new administration wants to strengthen ties with ASEAN

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News, Sci/Tech January 2, 2013

Google’s Eric Schmidt ‘to visit North Korea’?!

Mr Schmidt will be travelling to North Korea on a private trip led by former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson that could take place as early as this month, sources told The Associated Press news agency. The sources, two people familiar with the group’s plans, asked not to be named because the visit had not been made public.

The trip would be the first by a top executive from US-based Google, the world’s largest internet search provider, to a country considered to have the most restrictive internet policies on the planet.

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Strategic Interests December 29, 2012

China’s Take: Japan, US may lock horns in quest for influence in Myanmar

A series of changes that took place after the current government replaced the military government through the January 2011 elections has brought hope for stability and development in the country, as well as expanded its diplomatic room. This provides Myanmar with opportunities to improve relations with the US and Japan. Against the backdrop of the US “pivot to Asia,” the Obama administration has emphasized Southeast Asia as a strategic focus, and seeks to forge comprehensive strengthened US-ASEAN cooperation.

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Intelligentsia, Military December 27, 2012

CIA’s Global Response Staff emerging from shadows

The rapid collapse of a U.S. diplomatic compound in Libya exposed the vulnerabilities of State Department facilities overseas. Two of the Americans killed in Benghazi were members of the CIA’s Global Response Staff, an innocuously named organization that has recruited hundreds of former U.S. Special Forces operatives to serve as armed guards for the agency’s spies.

The GRS, as it is known, is designed to stay in the shadows, training teams to work undercover and provide an unobtrusive layer of security for CIA officers in high-risk outposts.

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Strategic Interests December 27, 2012

The Rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran in the Middle East

The Middle East is a region where any political movement appears as rivalry, a place where no one is without a rival, and where there are those who cannot be without a rival. There are two forms of competition: competition against one or more people, like chess, or competition with one or more people over something, like the 100 meters hurdle race. Competition in the Middle East is generally of the second form, and the two states which the struggle for influence in the Middle East has had them confront each other are the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran.

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GeoPolitics, Intelligentsia December 21, 2012

The inside story of the CIA-ISI immunity deal

The US State Department’s decision to extend immunity to two former ISI chiefs in the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks case is in accordance with a clandestine understanding reached between Admiral Mike Mullen and General Ashfaq Kayani during a day-long meeting held at a secluded resort in Oman on February 22, 2011.

The State Department informed a New York federal court on December 19 that the ISI and two of its former director generals enjoyed immunity and cannot be tried in the Mumbai terror attacks case.

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Resources, Territorial Dispute December 21, 2012

Resource Rapture: Malawi, Tanzania In The Midst of a Border Dispute

Tanzania and Malawi plan to seek mediation from former heads of state in Southern Africa to help resolve a long-running border dispute over Lake Malawi. The lake is believed to have rich oil and gas reserves.

Foreign ministers of the two countries are scheduled to meet former Mozambican President Joaquim Chissano, chairman of the forum, on Friday as part of a regional effort to resolve the border impasse.

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Military, News December 19, 2012

US to open military ties soon with Myanmar

The United States is poised to take “nascent steps” to open up military ties with Myanmar as a way of bolstering political reforms undertaken by the former state, a senior US defence official said on Wednesday.

The Pentagon said the cooperation likely would take the form of “non-lethal” training for Myanmar officers focusing on humanitarian assistance, military medicine and defence “reform,” the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told reporters.

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Bioethics, Human Rights, Sci/Tech December 18, 2012

Surveillance State: Ecuador Implements “World’s First” Countrywide Facial- and Voice-Recognition System

Ecuador has installed a nationwide system that lets government officials ID “several million” people by their voices and faces, Slate reported. If an Ecuadorian agency taps a phone line, for example, it is now able to match the voices in a call with a database of “voiceprints” of known criminals, suspects and persons of interest. The voice system is 97 percent accurate, says the system’s maker, SpeechPro

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Military, Policy December 13, 2012

Israel maintains military assets in Eritrea to spy on Iran: report

Israel has set up military bases in Eritrea to monitor Iran and other hostile activities in the Red Sea, Stratfor Global Intelligence reported Wednesday.

The U.S.-based strategy consultancy firm quoted “diplomatic sources” as saying that the Israeli military presence is comprised of docks and small naval units in the Dahlak Archipelago and Massawa, and a listening post on Mt. Amba Sawara.

“Israel’s presence in Eritrea is very focused and precise, involving intelligence gathering in the Red Sea and monitoring Iran’s activities,” Stratfor said.

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Integration December 12, 2012

Russia Is Building Diplomatic and Military Tools to Prevent Western Resistance to its Eurasian Union

With so much economic and political influence, Russia will then be able to promote its preferred candidates in national elections along its periphery—and will basically own the national governments. Such an outcome would also trigger a diffusion into neighboring countries of Russia’s political system, which is a form of “smart authoritarianism” mimicking democratic institutions and processes. This type of governance forces its citizens to trade between some minimal level of social welfare assured by the government in exchange for giving up many individual freedoms.

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Crisis, GeoPolitics December 3, 2012

Russia Prepared to Evacuate Nationals from Syria

According to the Kremlin’s Middle East envoy Mikhail Bogdanov, Russian emergency services have reserved several planes to evacuate Russian nationals from Syria. These people are officials, engineers and Russian wives. Mr Bogdanov advised Russians to postpone travel to Syria.

According to the Kremlin’s Middle East envoy Mikhail Bogdanov, in the period to the New Year Moscow will host several rounds of talks between Russian officials and foreign representatives of the internal Syria opposition.

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Flashpoints, Intelligentsia, Military, News December 3, 2012

Pentagon builds military intelligence network to rival the CIA

The Pentagon is planning a major expansion of America’s international spy network, creating a new generation of undercover agents to get a better handle on critical issues such as China’s growing military might and the rising influence of fundamentalist militants in Africa.

The enlarged military spy ring will rival the civilian Central Intelligence Agency in size, marking a major expansion in America’s espionage network – something that reflects the Obama administration’s preference for undercover operations over conventional force.

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Resources, Strategic Interests, Think Tanks December 1, 2012

The Sri Lankan Silk Road

Sri Lanka, the “pearl” of the Indian Ocean, is strategically located within the east-west international shipping passageway. Like the old Silk Road that stretched from the ancient Chinese capital of Xian all the way to ancient Rome, modern China’s strategic and commercial supply line extends over the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea to include the focal transit port of Sri Lanka at the southern tip of India. Today, over 85 percent of China’s energy imports from the Middle East and mineral resources from Africa transit through Sri Lanka and other so-called “string of pearls” ports.

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Analysis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Powerplay November 29, 2012

Tiny Oil Fiefdom Qatar Pushes For Hegemony On Global Stage

For years, the tiny oil sheikdom of Qatar has been a reliable US partner in the Middle East — as a host to the largest American military base in the region and as a diplomatic bulwark against Iran. It has backed the fall of autocratic rulers in Libya and Syria.

Two years after the start of the Arab Spring, however, Qatar’s carefully cultivated reputation as a U.S. partner — and as a neutral broker in the region — is increasingly muddled. With billions of dollars in natural gas and oil revenue, it is bankrolling a new generation of Islamists across the Middle East, raising questions about its vision for the region and whether some of its policies are in direct conflict with U.S. interests.

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Diplomacy, GeoPolitics, Powerplay, Stratagem November 26, 2012

BRICS: The World’s New Banker?

The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) bloc has begun planning its own development bank and a new bailout fund which would be created by pooling together an estimated $240 billion in foreign exchange reserves, according to diplomatic sources. To get a sense of how significant the proposed fund would be, the fund would be larger than the combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of about 150 countries, according to Russia and India Report.

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Analysis, Conflict, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Intelligentsia, Policy November 26, 2012

Contra Style Death Squads Set Groundwork For Future Syrian Colonized Govt

11 November representatives of disparate Syrian groups were combined to form the national coalition of revolutionary and oppositional forces “(NKROS), all the seats and positions in which the head of the American delegation had distributed at the Conference in Doha, United States Ambassador to Syria, Robert S. Ford.

In 2004-2006/07 he worked as Assistant to John Negroponte, the head of a diplomatic mission in Iraq and the United States engaged in war, the methods used there in Honduras: using” death squads “and” Nicaraguan Contras. “the same model that Ford used for destabilization of the situation in Syria.

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Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military November 26, 2012

Iran warships returning to Sudan: military

Iranian warships will return to Sudan on Friday, the armed forces said, one month after a similar port call followed Khartoum’s accusation that Israel bombed a military factory.

Sudan’s links to Iran have come under scrutiny after Khartoum accused Israel of the October 23 strike against the Yarmouk compound, which led to speculation that Iranian weapons were stored or manufactured at the factory in Khartoum.

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Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military, Policy November 26, 2012

The World through the Eyes of the Dragon

In today’s world order, economic interests, political motives and security agendas of major powers are usually intertwined, although zero-sum rivalries are still valid on many occasions of political friction. In addition, China’s administrative tradition has brought its own fears, dreams and specific definitions of interest from centuries back to this date and synthesized these elements into what we refer to as its contemporary foreign policy perspective.

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GeoPolitics, Resources, Strategic Interests November 9, 2012

Caspian Sea’s Part in the ‘Great Game’

The Caspian Sea region is an often-overlooked one, compared to the Middle East, when assessing the antagonisms of world powers. However, this hinterland of Eurasia is of great importance for a whole range of issues.

The Caspian Sea dominates on a geo-economic level Central Asia, Caucasus, Southern Russia and the upper part of the Middle East. More than 10 billion tons of oil reserves are to be found there along with trillions of cubic meters of natural gas, most of them still unexplored or underdeveloped.

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Flashpoints, Military, News November 8, 2012

Iran fired at unarmed US drone, Pentagon says

Iran fired on an unarmed U.S. drone last week as it was hovering in international airspace, the Pentagon announced Thursday.

Spokesman George Little said the incident occurred Nov. 1 at 4:50 a.m. ET. He said the unarmed, unmanned drone was conducting “routine surveillance” over the Persian Gulf when it was “intercepted” by Iran. He said the MQ1 Predator drone, which was not hit, was not in Iranian airspace.

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Conflict, Military Buildup November 1, 2012

Turkey to request Patriot deployment from NATO

Ankara plans to request NATO deploy a Patriot missile defense system in its territories in case of escalation of the scale of attacks against Turkey by the al-Assad regime. A senior Turkish diplomat says Turkey and NATO have been working on contingency plans

Patriot missiles were deployed twice in the past in Turkey, both in the context of the Iraqi war in the early 1990s and 2000s. Turkey plans to officially request NATO deploy a Patriot missile defense system in its territories as a security precaution against a potential large-scale military offensive from Syria as Syrian shelling on the border raises tensions.

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Military, News October 24, 2012

Commander Eyes Army Troop Rotations in Asia-Pacific

Speaking during a “DOD Live” bloggers roundtable yesterday, Wiercinski underscored the importance of expanded Army engagement as the United States implements new strategic guidance focused on the Asia-Pacific region. But acknowledging that neither the United States nor its allies and partners in the region have an interest in establishing new U.S. bases there, he said he favors troop rotations to support more exercises and other military-to-military engagements.

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GeoPolitics, Military Buildup October 7, 2012

South Korea eschews enrichment of uranium, but chafes at U.S. effort to restrict its options

South Korean officials have recently realized that the United States is likely to try to forbid them from enriching uranium and expanding their country’s missile range, rather than leave these issues on the diplomatic back burner.

Indeed, recent discreet talks, in which the U.S. has disregarded South Korean efforts to supplement the controversial U.S.-South Korea Nuclear Cooperation Agreement, which expires in March 2014, suggest that there are reasons to be deeply worried about the alliance’s future.

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GeoPolitics, Policy, Territorial Dispute October 3, 2012

U.S. “preparing to change Bosnian constitution, repartition nation”

The U.S. launched “a serious and wide-reaching diplomatic initiative for a constitutional reconstruction of the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina”, said reports.

According to the newspaper, the initiative covers all options: decreasing the number of cantons, changing cantonal borders, transferring certain competencies, abolishing offices and other changes aimed at making the structure of the Federation more efficient

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GeoPolitics, Military September 28, 2012

How realistic is Arab military intervention in Syria

Qatar’s call for Arab military intervention in Syria would be difficult to achieve practically and politically, and would risk dragging the region into an all-out conflict, analysts say.

Qatar’s emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani on Tuesday urged Arab action over war-torn Syria because of the failure of the UN Security Council and other international efforts to end the conflict.

Because of this failure, “it is better for Arab countries to intervene themselves out of their humanitarian, political and military duties and do what is necessary to stop the bloodshed,” Sheikh Hamad told the General Assembly.

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Diplomacy, Strategic Interests, Think Tanks September 26, 2012

US is trying to make Armenia its ally in the region: Truman National Security Project

Few countries are in better position to shape US foreign policy than Armenia.Armenia borders Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Iran. As a part of the former Soviet Union, it relies on nearby Russia extensively for trade and military backing. The US has a significant stake in all five countries, and Armenia is now coming into view as a potentially potent lever to advance American aims.That is, if the Armenians can be won over.As the US tries to woo Armenia to become a stronger ally in the region, the term “geostrategic” has never been more apt.

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Conflict, Flashpoints, Intelligentsia September 26, 2012

Intervention in Mali: France launches ‘Opération Sabre’ in West Africa

France has announced the deployment of a military mission dubbed Opération Sabre to rescue its nationals held hostage and flush out Islamist terror groups in the West Africa region.

French officials said 80 military vehicles, helicopter pilot trainers as well as commandos from contingents in Afghanistan and the Horn of Africa were expected to join Operation Sabre or sword.

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Flashpoints, Intelligentsia, Protest September 24, 2012

Deadly Attack in Libya Was Major Blow to C.I.A. Efforts

The attack in Benghazi, Libya, that killed Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens and three other Americans has dealt the Central Intelligence Agency a major setback in its intelligence-gathering efforts at a time of increasing instability in the North African nation.

Among the more than two dozen American personnel evacuated from the city after the assault on the American mission and a nearby annex were about a dozen C.I.A. operatives and contractors, who played a crucial role in conducting surveillance and collecting information on an array of armed militant groups in and around the city.

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Diplomacy, Flashpoints, Military September 13, 2012

Benghazi, Cairo, and the “New” Force Protection Reality

This is the new reality: in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia, the United States must expect that its diplomats will not enjoy protection in societies wracked by political instability and the birth pangs of transition into new forms of government. This problem is by no means exclusive to these areas of conflict. Even Mexican drug cartels have no fear of shooting at diplomatic cars. As Trombly pointed out, the ability of the State Department to advocate for US interests will be compromised if effective measures are not taken.

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Development, Military, News September 13, 2012

Benghazi attack: US Marines deployed to Libya

The US ambassador to Libya, Christopher Stevens,along with three other embassy staff, were killed Tuesday night following an attack on the US consulate in Benghazi, US President Barack Obama confirmed Wednesday afternoon.

At least five Americans and 10 members of the Libyan security forces were wounded as mobs, allegedly protesting against an anti-Islam film, stormed the US mission armed with rocket propelled-grenades.

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GeoPolitics, Military, News September 11, 2012

Secret British Envoy Warns Israel Against Iran Strike

A special envoy from the British government came to Israel about two weeks ago on a secret visit for talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak.

According to an Israeli source who asked to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the matter, the high-ranking visitor delivered a stern message from British Prime Minister David Cameron against an uncoordinated Israeli strike on Iran at this time.

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Diplomacy, GeoPolitics, Resources September 10, 2012

Iran in talks to sell oil to Egypt – agency

Iran is in talks to sell crude oil to Egypt, Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi was quoted as saying by the Iranian Students’ News Agency (ISNA) on Monday.

Iran has been looking for new buyers for its oil as western sanctions over its disputed nuclear program squeeze sales to long-time customers, Reuters reported.

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Conflict, Strategic Interests, Territorial Dispute August 30, 2012

Chinese army capable of safeguarding maritime rights: military spokesperson

China’s armed forces are capable of safeguarding the country’s maritime rights and interests, a spokesman with the Ministry of Defense said Thursday, referring to the Diaoyu Islands.

“It is undisputed that the Diaoyu Islands are an indispensable part of China’s territory,” spokesman Geng Yansheng said at a regular press conference, adding that any unilateral action taken by Japan cannot change this fact.

“In the meantime, China’s armed forces are capable of safeguarding the country’s territory as well as its maritime rights and interests,” said Geng.

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Analysis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics August 19, 2012

Iran, Saudi Arabia fight proxy conflict in Syria

Saudi Arabia doesn’t see Ahmadinejad as the one in charge –
The old rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia as to who is leading the Islamic world is also fought on Syrian soil. The Saudi king described himself as “the servant of the holy shrines in Mecca and Medina” while Khamenei claims to be “the leader of the Islamic revolution.”

The two countries also stand for the schism of the Islamic world: Saudi Arabia sees itself at the helm of the Sunnis, while Iran is leading the Shias. The conflict in Syria is increasingly fought along that sectarian divide with the Assad clan being Alawi, a denomination close to the Shias and therefore a natural ally to Tehran.

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Analysis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics August 12, 2012

Sri Lanka Plays Geopolitical Games with China, India, and the United States

“Sri Lanka has never been an island,” the American diplomat told the audience of over 300 military cadets; “it has always had trade and diplomatic relations that went back to ancient kingdoms in Asia and ruling empires in Europe.” Its strategic location in the passageway through the Indian Ocean has become increasing interest to China, India, and the United States throughout navigational and trade history, Mendis added.

By quoting U.S. strategist Admiral Alfred Mahan, Professor Mendis said, “Whoever controls the Indian Ocean dominates Asia.” The Sri Lankan born American strategist also pointed out that Chinese (Muslim) Admiral Zheng He visited Sri Lanka several times since 1405. It was almost 100 years before Christopher Columbus discovered America, Mendis explained.

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Development, Flashpoints, Military Buildup July 29, 2012

China Sea Cold War: Japan ‘could deploy troops on islands’

Japanese soldiers take part in a military parade at the Ground Self Defence Force’s training ground in Asaka. Japan’s defence minister has warned Tokyo could send troops to a chain of East China Sea islands at the centre of a territorial row with China if the simmering dispute escalated.

Satoshi Morimoto said Tokyo’s position had not changed, but confirmed that it would use force to defend the islands known as Senkaku in Japanese and Diaoyu in Chinese.

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Drill, Flashpoints, Military, News July 23, 2012

Israel: IDF Trains for ‘Arab Spring’ in Judea and Samaria

A large-scale IDF exercise in Judea and Samaria, the first in three years, is preparing soldiers in the Menashe Brigade for a possible “Arab Spring” rebellion. The brigade is based near Jenin, located in central Samaria between the Mediterranean Coast and the Jordan River.

“The drill tested main scenarios of a potential violent escalation in the region, including terrorist attacks on a local road, terrorists infiltrating a community and killing civilians, abduction of soldiers, numerous explosives set on a fence and more,” military spokesmen reported on the IDF Website.

Forces from the Israeli Security Agency (ISA), Israeli Police, Israeli emergency medical services Magen David Adom, regular and reserve units, and community security bodies participated in the drill.

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Conflict, Development, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military July 21, 2012

Hichem Karoui: Spies, murders and secret wars

Benjamin Netanyahu, commenting on the Burgas bombing, admitted that a secret war was going on between Israel and Iran. He particularly mentioned “a number of attacks and attempted attacks against Israeli targets, in Thailand, Georgia, India, Greece, Cyprus, and other countries.” The Israeli newspapers that reported the PM’s comment also reported a US anonymous official cited by The New York Times saying: “This was tit for tat.”

That was equal to saying: “We were expecting it, since we know what we’ve done to them!” The French dictum says: C’est de bonne guerre! (It is just fair war).

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Border Incursion, Conflict, Crisis, Development, Flashpoints July 16, 2012

Abkhazia leaves open the possibility of border strife with Georgia

In the last few weeks, the issue of Georgian-Abkhazian relations has shifted from a purely diplomatic field to some other one once again. The subject of security on the border of Abkhazia with Georgia in the Gali district became the first priority. On 22 June, Stanislav Lakoba, the head of the Security Council of Abkhazia, made a statement which was pompous enough. We are talking about a new round of tensions that could lead to new instability on the Georgian-Abkhaz border, i. e. about destabilization, from which the people of Abkhazia became estranged in recent years.

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Development, Drill, Flashpoints, Military Buildup July 16, 2012

Taiwan tests new weapons in China war simulation

Taiwan for the first time tested how a fleet of advanced submarine hunting aircraft and attack helicopters would be utilized in the event of an attack by rival China, officials and media said today.

The weapons were included at the beginning of the five-day “Han Kuang No 28″ computer-aided wargame – the biggest of the military’s series of annual drills.

The defense ministry confirmed the drill started today but refused to provide further details.

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Intelligentsia, Military, News July 15, 2012

IDF intelligence units growing to cope with Mideast upheaval

On Thursday, Military Intelligence marked the graduation of another course of new intelligence officers. A senior officer said that the course was the largest in the directorate’s history and saw a 25 percent increase in the number of participants.

“MI is growing due to the changes in Israel’s strategic and operational positions, the need for more technology and the increase in the areas of interest that we follow,” the officer said. According to the officer, among the new areas of interest that Military Intelligence has added to its list are Sudan, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Jordan.

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Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military, News July 9, 2012

Asia Pivot Point: Philippine president orders to keep government plans secret

Philippine President Benigno Aquino III ordered the government’s plans and decisions involving the Philippines’ territorial dispute with China to be kept secret before they are implemented.

Toward that end, Aquino, according to presidential spokesperson Edwin Lacierda, gave instructions that the four hourlong Cabinet meeting on Thursday—the second in a week—be held behind closed doors.

The staff of the 35 Cabinet members present were asked to leave before the meeting began, Lacierda said.

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Diplomacy, GeoPolitics, Military, Stratagem, Systemic Abuse July 5, 2012

Uniting Feral Dictatorships: Uzbekistan turns into U.S major ally in Central Asia

Iran’s issues, the operation in Afghanistan, the establishment of military bases in Uzbekistan will be discussed at the upcoming meeting with U.S military and diplomatic leadership in Tashkent.

The U.S. has sought military cooperation for a long time with Uzbekistan because of the strategic and geopolitical positions of the country. Uzbekistan’s obligations as a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) were one of the main factors that can prevent it and the creation of U.S bases in the Republic.

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Analysis, Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Regime Change, Risks July 1, 2012

Why Gulf States Want Regime Change in Syria

Ever since the protests started against Bashar al Assad’s regime, the Gulf countries have adopted a tough posture by criticizing and condemning the reactions of the Syrian government and squarely putting the blame upon it for the unfolding situation.

The Gulf monarchies, which suppressed protests in their own countries and were against any kind of regime change in their own region, have accused the Assad regime of killings and violating human rights and have been questioning the regime’s legitimacy to continue its rule. With the protests against the Assad regime turning increasingly violent and the Syrian regime’s strong military response, the political dynamics in the region have become more intricate.

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Conflict, Flashpoints, News, Paramilitary June 24, 2012

Saudi officials preparing to finance Free Syria Army

Saudi officials are preparing to pay the salaries of the Free Syria Army as a means of encouraging mass defections from the military and increasing pressure on the Assad regime, according The Guardian.

Officials in the Saudi capital embraced the idea when it was put to them by Arab officials in May, according to sources in three Arab states, around the same time that weapons started to flow across the southern Turkish border into the hands of Free Syria Army leaders.

Turkey has also allowed the establishment of a command centre in Istanbul which is co-ordinating supply lines in consultation with FSA leaders inside Syria.

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Border Incursion, Conflict, Development, Flashpoints June 22, 2012

AP sources: US mulls new covert raids in Pakistan

U.S. military and intelligence officials are so frustrated with Pakistan’s failure to stop local militant groups that attack U.S. troops in neighboring Afghanistan that they’ve considered launching secret joint U.S.-Afghan commando raids into Pakistan to hunt them down.

U.S. officials tell The Associated Press the idea comes up every time the deadly Taliban faction known as the Haqqani (hah-KAH’-nee) network launches a spectacular attack in Afghanistan. Its fighters arm, plan and train in neighboring Pakistan.

The officials say the White House has consistently rejected the idea, believing the raids would not be worth the diplomatic blowback from Pakistan.

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Analysis, Crisis, Flashpoints, Stratagem June 18, 2012

Intelligence experts: Nato has options on Assad

A former Israeli intelligence chief has said EU and Nato countries can do more on Syria than complaining about Russia or imposing sanctions.

Assad’s generals, secret police chiefs and his diplomatic corps are still loyal and important minorities – such as Alawite Muslims, Druze Muslims and Christians, as well as businessmen in Damascus and Aleppo – do not want Sunni rule.

Outside the country, Russia, Iran, Shia Muslims in Iraq and Shittes and Christians in Lebanon, also want him to stay.

“When you see a real general, preferably an Alawite general, defect, then you will know he is on his way out … Unless the Druze clearly change position, he is quite stable,” the contact noted.

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Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Military, News June 5, 2012

Azerbaijan troops killed in Armenia border clash during Clinton visit

Azerbaijan’s defense ministry said Tuesday that five of its soldiers were killed in clashes with Armenian troops alongside the border separating the two countries, deepening tensions between the two former Soviet nations.

The ministry said in a statement that exchanges of gunfire have been reported over the last two days at numerous points along Azerbaijan’s western border. Armenia had said earlier that three of its soldiers died in the clashes.

Azerbaijan and Armenia have for two decades been at odds over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory, which lies within Azerbaijan, but was taken over by Armenia during a six-year war that killed about 30,000 people and displaced 1 million.

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Border Incursion, Flashpoints, Military, Powerplay, Risks May 31, 2012

Syria: West may be forced to seize WMD, report

The West may be forced to seize Bashar al-Assad’s weapons of mass destruction including toxic gas stockpiles, according to the Daily Telegraph newspaper Thursday.
International troops could be forced to intervene in Syria if the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime were to leave the stockpiles of his chemical weapons vulnerable to terrorists, western diplomatic sources have told the paper.

Like Israel, Syria has not signed the Chemical Weapons Convention of 1997, nor is it a member of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, which verifies stockpiles of these weapons.

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GeoPolitics, Integration, News May 18, 2012

New School of the Americas For Dictators

A year ago this month, Bolivian President Evo Morales inaugurated the College for Defense of the Bolivarian Alternative of the Americas (ALBA) with a speech in which he called for the expulsion of U.S. intelligence agencies, a new military doctrine based on “asymmetrical war” against “imperialism” and the “abolition” of the U.N. Security Council. He also attacked the press, calling CNN a “tool of capitalism”,

ALBA is a Venezuelan-led association of anti-U.S. governments which also includes Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua and some Caribbean island states dependent on Venezuelan oil subsidies. The fledgling alliance has been given little importance by U.S. intelligence analysts, who tend to dismiss it as a purely ideological entity.

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Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Resources, Strategic Interests May 9, 2012

Winds of war between Beijing and Manila blowing across the South China Sea

In their public statements, Manila and Beijing are seemingly stoking the winds of war blowing across the South China Sea over disputed islands in which other Asia-Pacific nations, including the United States, have a stake.

Beijing warned yesterday that it was ready to respond to any escalation of a tense, month-long standoff with the Philippines at Scarborough Shoal, a reef between Luzon Island and Zhongsha Islands.

“The Chinese side has … made all preparations to respond to any escalation of the situation by the Philippine side,” Deputy Foreign Minister Fu Ying said after summoning Alex Chua, chargé d’affaires at the Philippines Embassy in Beijing on Monday, the Foreign Ministry said yesterday. Fu made a “serious representation” about the standoff.

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Conflict, Economy, Flashpoints, Resources, Stratagem, Strategic Interests May 8, 2012

Petrodollar Warfare: Iran Accepts Renminbi for Crude Oil

Iran is accepting renminbi for some of the crude oil it supplies to China, industry executives in Beijing and Kuwait and Dubai-based bankers said, partly as a consequence of U.S. sanctions aimed at limiting Tehran’s nuclear program.

Tehran is spending the currency, which is not freely convertible, on goods and services imported from China.

Most of the oil that goes from Iran to China is handled by the Unipec trading arm of Sinopec, China’s second-largest oil company, and through another trading company called Zhuhai Zhenrong, the oil industry executives said.

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Crisis, Development, Diplomacy, Flashpoints, Military Buildup May 3, 2012

Philippines seeks US help to build its military

The Philippines is asking for more U.S. military hardware and says it’s in Washington’s strategic interest to help.

Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario said Wednesday the Philippines is submitting a list requesting patrol vessels and aircraft, radar systems and coast watch stations.

His comments come after high-level talks in Washington this week, and amid a continuing standoff between the Philippines and China at a disputed shoal in the South China Sea.

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Crisis, Diplomacy, Flashpoints, Hard Power, Military April 27, 2012

Chinese Army vows to ‘safeguard’ territory in China Sea

The Chinese military has vowed to “fulfill their duty” to safeguard the South China Sea.
“China’s military forces will collaborate closely with related governing bodies, including fishery administration and maritime law enforcement, to jointly ensure the country’s maritime rights and interests,” the China Daily quoted Defense Ministry spokesman Geng Yansheng, as saying.

This was the first official remark from the armed forces of China following a standoff with a Philippine warship in waters off China’s Huangyan Island on April 10.

Analysts claimed that the comments were also in response to growing domestic demand to ensure sovereignty in the South China Sea.

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Development, Diplomacy, GeoPolitics, Integration, Policy April 27, 2012

Turkey and China host biggest EU outposts

Staff numbers at embassies highlight EU interest in Turkey, China, the Western Balkans and in multilateral bodies, as well as member states’ ongoing reliance on bilateral diplomacy.

The EU’s top 10 delegations in terms of staff numbers are: Ankara (137), Beijing/Hong Kong (116), Moscow (102), Belgrade (100), Tel Aviv/Ramallah (97), Kiev (93), Sarajevo (92), New Delhi (87), Washington (86) and Nairobi (85). The EU also has 187 people posted to various branches of the UN, the WTO, the African Union, the OECD economic club and democracy watchdogs the OSCE and the Council of Europe.

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Crisis, Resources, Risks April 22, 2012

Price of “Kurdistan’s” independence – oil agreement for 50 years?

During a visit of the head of the Kurdish regional government (KRG) in northern Iraq, Massoud Barzani, to Turkey the sides discussed a number of issues, including measures against terrorist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which turned into a headache for both sides.

Most of the Kurdish leader’s meetings with officials from Turkey and a meeting with former Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi were held behind closed doors.

On the second day of his visit to Ankara after talks with Turkish President Abdullah Gul Barzani made not new, but this time more important statement.

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Crisis, Economy, News April 18, 2012

Argentina’s Oil Takeover Ticks Off Spain and Mexico

Argentina’s takeover of its top energy company from Spain’s Repsol, in an effort to control its energy future, has provoked an avalanche of diplomatic protests and vows of retaliation from Spain and other affected parties like Mexico.

President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has made Spain furious by decreeing that her government will recover YPF SA, Repsol’s Argentine oil operations, by expropriating Repsol’s majority stake in the company.

President Fernández said the company hasn’t invested enough in the South American country and has rejected Repsol YPF’s demand for $10.5 billion in compensation. Argentina is still in the process of valuing its’ 51 percent of YPF’s shares and will not use estimates from Repsol, the Deputy Economy Minister Axel Kicillof said at a Senate hearing yesterday.

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Analysis, Public Relations, Risks April 11, 2012

In Syria, send in the mercenaries

he world community, including the United States, is at a crossroads about the right steps to forcefully prevent the further slaughter of civilians in Syria. There are many good reasons to intervene — to stop the death, detention and probable torture of any number of innocents; to support the democratic right of people to consent to rule by a freely elected government; and to avoid a repeat of the U.S. inaction that allowed Iran’s dictatorship to prevail in 2009.

There are just as many reasons not to intervene — the sovereignty of nations; the moral hazard of providing U.S. troops where our national interest does not dictate; and the uncertainty about those we would be helping take power. All the while, do-nothing diplomatic talks and easily ignored cease-fires continue to fail because the talking doesn’t change the facts on the ground.

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Economy, Resources March 26, 2012

Tug of War: Strain in the EU-Ukraine-Russia Energy Triangle

Ukraine’s current tug-of-war with Russia over the pricing of its Russian gas imports should be watched closely by the EU, which receives 20% of its gas supply via Ukraine and which suffered record supply disruptions in 2009, the last time a similar price dispute escalated. After having accepted Ukraine into its Energy Community in 2011, the EU is rightly making further financial and diplomatic support conditional on Ukraine liberalising its domestic gas market. Those reforms, however, run counter the interests of well-connected local business magnates. Coupled, with EU concerns over the jailing of Ukrainian opposition leader Yuliya Timoshenko, Ukraine’s resistance to reforms is cornering it into a difficult negotiating position with Russian Gazprom, which may well gain a stake in Ukraine’s gas transportation system (GTS) in exchange for a discount.

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, History, Military, Powerplay March 25, 2012

How India created Bangladesh & lessons for Sri Lanka

With a population of 1.2billion living across a landmass of 2973190 square kilometers, there is no denying India’s power. Yet, if not for its inferiority we cannot comprehend why India would desire to adopt a consistent policy and go to great lengths to destabilize each of its neighbors whilst pretending to be their friend.

The example of Bangladesh is perfect to describe the birth of Indian intelligence agency RAW tasked to partition Pakistan and create Bangladesh in 1971. It was in 1947 that 2 different countries were created – Pakistan and India. Muslims were divided into 2 countries bearing 2 different nationalities. West Pakistan was dominated by Punjabi’s while East Pakistan was the home to Sindhis, Pathans, Balochis and Mohajirs.

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Analysis, Conflict, Military, News, Think Tanks March 19, 2012

Think tank: US intervention in Syria could require 300K troops, cost $300 billion

A think tank report says that U.S. intervention in Syria involving on-the-ground forces could require between 200,000 and 300,000 troops and cost up to $300 billion per year to be executed properly.

While no one is advocating a strategy involving an invasion, the report from the Brookings Institution’s Saban Center for Middle East Policy highlights the difficulties of accomplishing the Obama administration’s goal of removing Syrian President Bashar Assad from power.

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Diplomacy, GeoPolitics, Resources, Soft Power, Stratagem March 18, 2012

Chinese foreign minister on Beijing’s firm foothold in Africa

China’s burgeoning influence around the world has reshaped global affairs, not least, the economic and political issues. In a recent interview with more than 500 journalists at the Great Hall of the People, China’s Foreign Affairs minister Yang Jiechi spoke on a wide range of issues and underlined his country’s foreign policy and external relations.

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GeoPolitics, Integration, Military, News March 11, 2012

Armenia’s Realistic Cooperation with NATO

You were the representative of the RA Armed Forces to NATO for many years. Now Armenia merely implements different programs with NATO, without being a member of this alliance. In your opinion, is the membership of Armenia to NATO expedient for Armenia?

Before dwelling on the main question, I would like to note that Armenia is not merely implementing different programs with NATO as you say but participates in the International Security Assistance led by NATO, sometimes outnumbering the troops of some NATO member states, provides structured advice on political, security and defense issues, organizes military exercise, and recently the first North-Atlantic Council + Armenia meeting has been held in which the president of Armenia participated. We have high-level relations with NATO, and the implemented programs are systemic and are related to the defense reforms in Armenia.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Risks, Sectarian Violence March 6, 2012

Pakistan is facing covert war

Militancy, suicidal attacks, bomb blasts, target killings, sectarian strife, ethnic violence and, most recently, the cold blooded murder of people belonging to the shia community, after being hauled off from buses in Kohistan area and almost similar mass murders of Hazaras – shia community – in Balochistan earlier, are not some disjointed or random instances of militancy or sectarianism, but very much part of a systematic and well organised operation. In fact, Pakistan is being subjected to a methodically planned and professionally executed covert (hidden) war.

This covert war has both internal and external dimensions. It cannot be denied that a lot of what is happening is because of our own misdeeds over the years, resulting in the radicalisation of the society. Yet, external interference has played the proverbial role of “adding fuel to the fire”. Let there be no doubt that external manipulation exploiting and aggravating skilfuly internal dissensions has pushed Pakistan to the brink.

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Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics March 5, 2012

Former CIA Officials Say Iran’s Clerics Want to Goad Israel Into an Attack

Marty Martin, a former senior officer in the CIA, ran the unit that hunted Al Qaeda terrorists from 2002 to 2004. Iran’s most militant leaders “are goading the Israelis,” he tells The Daily Beast, “because a bombing will help them put their internal problems aside.”

Martin, who spent most of his 25-year career at the CIA in the Middle East, argues that some clerics and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders, confronted with a discontented and restless population, are looking for ways to solidify public support. “The way they see it, if Israel bombs them it relieves the internal pressure,” says Martin. “Amid this turmoil, its always good to have an outside enemy.”

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Conflict, Flashpoints, Military Buildup, News February 26, 2012

Israel inks $1.6 billion arms deal with Azerbaijan

JERUSALEM – (AP) — Israeli defense officials on Sunday confirmed $1.6 billion in deals to sell drones as well as anti-aircraft and missile defense systems to Azerbaijan, bringing sophisticated Israeli technology to the doorstep of archenemyIran.

The sales by state-run Israel Aerospace Industries come at a delicate time. Israel has been laboring hard to form diplomatic alliances in a region that seems to be growing increasingly hostile to the Jewish state.

Its most pressing concern is Iran’s nuclear program, and Israeli leaders have hinted broadly that they would be prepared to attack Iranian nuclear facilities if they see no other way to keep Tehran from building bombs.

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Intelligentsia, SiGiNT February 26, 2012

US ‘using UK spy base to subvert democracy’

The US government was accused of using a controversial spy station in Yorkshire to “subvert and destroy democracy” in a new report funded by the Joseph Rowntree foundation.

The report, based on an investigation led by Dr Steve Schofield into the Menwith Hill base near Harrogate, revealed for the first time the station’s integral role in military offensives – potentially including drone strikes – and corporate snooping.

The investigation found that the cost to the British taxpayer of hosting the base has been grossly downplayed while the alleged benefits to the local and national economies have been hugely exaggerated.

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GeoPolitics, Military, News February 24, 2012

In secret deal, ISI allows U.S. drone war to resume

New waves of strikes target jihadists in Pakistan’s north-west, after CIA and ISI chiefs met to hammer out agreement

Pakistan’s military has agreed to the resumption of the United States’ drone strikes against terrorist groups operating on its soil, highly-placed diplomatic sources told The Hindu.

The agreement, the sources said, was hammered out by Inter-Services Intelligence chief Lieutenant-General Shuja Ahmad Pasha and Central Intelligence Agency director David Petraeus at a secret meeting in Doha last month.

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