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Greek eurozone exit ‘could spark coup’

Greek eurozone exit ‘could spark coup’

As markets prepare for the prospect of a Greek exit from the euro, one prominent British economist says Greece could face a military coup if it abandons the single currency.

Financial markets have been sold down amid speculation Greece will have to leave the eurozone and abandon its debts.

But Sav Savouri, chief economist at London based hedge fund Tosca Fund, says the country has little option but to remain in the 17-member currency bloc because the situation will be very bleak if it leaves.

Mr Savouri had a grim view of the outlook for the country if Greece returned to the drachma.

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Plans to strike Iran “ready”, says U.S. Israel envoy

Plans to strike Iran “ready”, says U.S. Israel envoy

U.S. plans for a possible military strike on Iran are ready and the option is “fully available”, the U.S. ambassador to Israel said, days before Tehran resumes talks with world powers which suspect it of seeking to develop nuclear arms.

Like Israel, the United States has said it considers military force a last resort to prevent Iran using its uranium enrichment to make a bomb. Iran insists its nuclear program is for purely civilian purposes.

“It would be preferable to resolve this diplomatically and through the use of pressure than to use military force,” Ambassador Dan Shapiro said in remarks about Iran aired by Israel’s Army Radio on Thursday.

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‘Accidental war’ waiting to happen on EU periphery

‘Accidental war’ waiting to happen on EU periphery

If or when a full-blown conflict erupts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, it will probably begin like this.

According to a senior source in the Armenian defence ministry, on 27 April Azerbaijani troops sneaked over the Armenian border in the north-east province of Tavush and took up positions on either side of a road connecting the villages of Movses and Aygepar.

At around 2am local time – the source said – they opened fire from close range at the windscreen of an approaching car carrying out-of-uniform Armenian soldiers. The ambush killed 28-year-old David Abgaryan, 21-year-old Arshak Nersisyan and 26-year-old father-of-one Aram Yesayan.

The killing is a “clear provocation,” the source told EUobserver in Yerevan on 5 May. He added: “We have not reacted yet. I underline ‘yet’.”

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Moody’s downgrades 26 Italian banks; ratings now among the lowest in Western Europe

Moody’s downgrades 26 Italian banks; ratings now among the lowest in Western Europe

Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the debt ratings of 26 Italian banks Monday as they struggled with the effect of the weak economy and government austerity measures.

The move means Moody’s now ranks Italy’s banks lower than most of their Western European peers.

The ratings agency said the banks are suffering because Italy is back in recession and government measures are cutting demand for loans. Banks are facing more loan losses, limited access to funding and weaker profits.

Moody’s noted, however, that support from the European Central Bank lowered the default risk of many of the banks.

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South Korea cautions against deployment of US tactical nukes

South Korea cautions against deployment of US tactical nukes

Seoul officials and experts cautioned against the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula proposed by some in the United States, which they fear could refuel an atomic arms race in Northeast Asia.

The US House Armed Services Committee on Thursday approved an amendment to the fiscal 2013 national defense authorisation bill that calls for the re-introduction of the sensitive weapons to South Korea, according to the diplomacy publication Foreign Policy.

While the South Korean government is not openly criticising the idea, concerned ministries say that Seoul remains fundamentally in favour of denuclearisation of the peninsula and that such developments will bring little security benefits for Seoul.

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AllAfrica: Former U.S. official calls for arming South Sudan army

AllAfrica: Former U.S. official calls for arming South Sudan army

The United States should move in to provide anti-aircraft defense systems to South Sudan in order to discourage Khartoum from launching aerial attacks and persuade it into returning to negotiations, former special envoy to Sudan said.

Since South Sudan gained its independence from the north in July 2011, it has accused its northern neighbor of bombarding inside its territories and particularly near the border regions. Some of the bombings were confirmed by UN officials and journalists.

The alleged bombing campaigns intensified particularly after the outbreak of rebellions last year in the border states of Blue Nile and South Kordofan by the Sudan People Liberation Movement North (SPLM-N).

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Awaiting the Next Revolution

Awaiting the Next Revolution

The violence that accompanied the inauguration of Vladimir Putin as Russian president this week is an ominous sign that Putin’s apparent desire to rule for life is leading his country toward a dangerous political confrontation.

Initial demonstrations following last December’s fraudulent Russian parliamentary elections were cheerful. Crowds of more than 100,000 kept to agreed meeting places and routes and even thanked the police for showing restraint.

On the eve of this Monday’s inauguration, however, police made 450 arrests and attacked demonstrators with batons, sending at least 17 people to the hospital. More than 20 police were injured by debris and beer bottles thrown by protesters.

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Pentagon sending military trainers to Yemen

Pentagon sending military trainers to Yemen

The Pentagon said Tuesday it is sending military trainers back to Yemen for “routine” counterterrorism cooperation with Yemeni security forces amid an intensified battle against an offshoot of the al-Qaida terror network.

“We have begun to reintroduce small numbers of trainers into Yemen,” a Pentagon spokesman, Navy Capt. John Kirby, told reporters.

Another American official said the arriving troops are special operations forces, who work under more secretive arrangements than conventional U.S. troops and whose expertise includes training indigenous forces. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the subject publicly.

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CIA: Following Trends and Triggers: Estimating State Instability

CIA: Following Trends and Triggers: Estimating State Instability

Estimating state instability is more than warning. It is a structured analysis of instability types, their likelihood and potential impact on US national interests, and their most likely and most dangerous manifestations. This kind of analysis goes beyond determining probabilities. It also structures scenarios and evaluates the potential impact of events.

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Greeks punish main parties, risk euro exit

Greeks punish main parties, risk euro exit

Greeks angry at years of austerity shrugged off the risk of a euro zone exit and punished their ruling parties, which failed to win enough votes to form a ruling coalition in Sunday’s election.

With about 95 percent of the vote counted, conservative New Democracy and Socialist PASOK, who have dominated Greece for decades and are the only two major parties supporting an EU/IMF bailout program that keeps Greece afloat, won less than 33 percent of ballots and only 150 out of 300 parliament seats.

In order to renew their uneasy partnership, they would have to woo other reluctant parties.

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Euro punished after France, Greece elections

Euro punished after France, Greece elections

The euro sank in value on Monday as the electoral defeat of ruling parties in France and Greece stoked anxiety in Asia about the fate of austerity policies designed to end the eurozone’s debt crisis.

Among creditor nations in Asia, concern emerged in Japan andChina about the zone’s policy direction after Socialist Francois Hollande beat President Nicolas Sarkozy in France and Greek voters punished pro-austerity parties.

Sarkozy’s defeat on Sunday was not necessarily a surprise, National Australia Bank said in a research note.

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Taiwan’s China ‘Carrier killer’ program goes ahead

Taiwan’s China ‘Carrier killer’ program goes ahead

A stealth 500-tonne fast attack “carrier killer” missile boat under development is pictured in this computer-generated rendition released in December 2010.

Despite hitting a snag in a recent bidding process, the navy is proceeding with the development of a stealth 500-tonne fast attack missile boat that is already being hailed as Taiwan’s “carrier killer.”

Plans for the indigenous development of the 500-tonne corvette were first made public in 2009. In April the following year, Deputy Minister of National Defense Lin Yu-pao (林於豹) told the legislature that design work as part of the Hsun Hai (迅海, “Swift Sea”) program was completed and that bidding would be held this year.

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Microsoft tests “smart home” waters with HomeOS

Microsoft tests “smart home” waters with HomeOS

Microsoft is looking to unify electrical appliances within the home and establish itself in the burgeoning “smart home” market with the development of HomeOS. Essentially a lightweight “smart home” operating system that aims to make it easy for users to manage their home networks and ease the creation of applications by third party developers, HomeOS is designed to provide a central hub through which various household devices can be controlled.

Like a personal computer that instantly recognizes attached devices such as a USB mouse, Microsoft is seeking to overcome the problem of getting various, currently incompatible devices to communicate with each other.

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Rendon Group: Overnight News Summaries: 01 May 2012

Rendon Group: Overnight News Summaries: 01 May 2012

KEY STORYLINES

AFRICA: The military junta in Mali said it remained in control of key sites around the capital after an attempted counter-coup.
AMERICAS: President Chavez returned to Cuba for additional cancer treatment.
ASIA: Afghan protesters accused NATO soldiers of killing four children during clashes with insurgents yesterday.
EUROPE: The British Defense Ministry is considering placing surface to air missiles on civilian rooftops during the Olympics
MIDDLE EAST: Israeli Defense Minister Barak was skeptical that international sanctions would succeed in curbing Iran’s nuclear goals
TECHNOLOGY: Freedom House indicated press freedom globally held steady after eight years of decline.

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Spain confirmed in recession as austerity bites

Spain confirmed in recession as austerity bites

Spain sank into recession in the first quarter and economists said spending cuts aimed at meeting strict EU deficit limits, together with a reeling bank sector, would delay any return to growth until late this year or beyond.

It is the second recession in just over two years for the euro zone’s fourth largest economy and comes as the government tries to convince investors it will not need outside aid to put its house in order.

The country is caught between pressure from its European peers to fix public finances and growing domestic resistance to austerity measures that have helped push unemployment to more than double the EU average.

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EU Readying ‘Marshall Plan For Europe’: Report

EU Readying ‘Marshall Plan For Europe’: Report

The European Commission is preparing a €200 billion “pact for growth” to be presented at the next EU summit in June.

According to leading Spanish newspaper, El País, the plan aims to raise funds valued at €200 billion for investments in infrastructure, renewable energies and advanced technologies with the involvement of the private sector, in a bid to kick-start economic growth without raising public debt in the 27 member states.

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New armed group takes control of Timbuktu

New armed group takes control of Timbuktu

A new armed group on Friday tightened its grip on the Malian city of Timbuktu as the Tuareg rebels reached the center.

Members of the National Liberation Front of Azawad (FLNA), which was set up this month, on Thursday arrived in vehicles and seized control of entries to the east and south of the ancient city.

On Friday the group, which says it has neither a secessionist nor Islamist agenda, moved into Timbuktu’s central area.

“Around 100 vehicles full of armed FLNA fighters came today to the (central) Sans Fil area of Timbuktu. They are armed to the teeth,” said a Malian security source in the town.

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Romanian government toppled, Czechs face test too

Romanian government toppled, Czechs face test too

Romania’s opposition torpedoed the center-right cabinet in a confidence vote on Friday, raising the prospect of months of political turmoil and questions over a belt-tightening campaign that has caused a wave of protests against IMF-backed reforms.

Prime Minister Mihai Razvan Ungureanu’s two-month-old government is the latest in a string of austerity-minded ruling coalitions that have fallen across the European Union in disputes over spending cuts and tax hikes.

The defeat came ahead of another confidence vote, in the Czech Republic, whose budget-cutting cabinet is expected to survive but may find itself hamstrung by infighting among its scandal-plagued parties and widespread public anger over its policies.

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Civil Unrest Leads Aon to Downgrade 37 Countries on Political Risk Map

Civil Unrest Leads Aon to Downgrade 37 Countries on Political Risk Map

Aon Risk Solutions, the global risk management business of Aon plc, has just issued its latest political risk map, which gauges the level of risk for international business in more than 200 countries. Aon said “37 countries were downgraded in the Aon 2012 Terrorism & Political Violence Map, largely due to civil unrest.”

The principle reason for the downgrades is linked to the “continued effects of the global economic crisis,” Aon said, “as austerity measures and spending cuts took hold, civil unrest, riots, strikes and student protests were witnessed across large parts of Europe.”

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China newspaper warns of ‘small-scale war’ with Philippines

China newspaper warns of ‘small-scale war’ with Philippines

One of China’s most popular newspapers has warned of a potential “small-scale war” between Beijing and Manila as a result of their standoff at Panatag Shoal, or Scarborough Shoal as the area is known internationally.

The Global Times, in an editorial published in its Chinese and English editions, said over the weekend that “China should be prepared to engage in a small-scale war at sea with the Philippines”.

“Once the war erupts, China must take resolute action to deliver a clear message to the outside world that it does not want a war, but definitely has no fear of it,” the tabloid said.

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Azerbaijan & Armenia Locked in Conflict After Breach of Ceasefire

Azerbaijan & Armenia Locked in Conflict After Breach of Ceasefire

On April 25, Azeri troops shelled the village of Doveg, Armenia’s Tavush province.

As a village administration representative Manya Sarukhanyan, told PanARMENIAN.Net Azeri troops have been shelling the village from 11 am to 12 pm local time.

Local school and kindergarten students were immediately evacuated; the incident was reported to commanders of a regional regiment, who’ve already arrived at the site to take necessary measures.

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U.K. Succumbs to First Double-Dip Recession Since 1970s: Economy

U.K. Succumbs to First Double-Dip Recession Since 1970s: Economy

The U.K. economy shrank in the first quarter as Britain slid into its first double-dip recession since the 1970s, forcing Prime Minister David Cameron to defend his spending cuts in Parliament.

Gross domestic product fell 0.2 percent from the fourth quarter of 2011, when it declined 0.3 percent, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The median of 40 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was for an increase of 0.1 percent. A technical recession is defined as two straight quarters of contraction.

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Facing bankruptcy, Detroit to spend $330K on Washington lobbyists

Facing bankruptcy, Detroit to spend $330K on Washington lobbyists

The mayor of Detroit has signed a $330,000 contract with a team of Washington lobbyists as he tries to save the city from bankruptcy.

The office of Mayor Dave Bing has employed Clark Hill, a law and lobby firm, to work on “funding for municipal government activities, including workforce development, education, public safety, transportation and housing,” according to public documents filed last week.

The city will pay Clark Hill a set fee of $330,000 for the contract, which will run until the end of the year, Deputy Detroit Mayor Kirk Lewis told The Hill.

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Price of “Kurdistan’s” independence – oil agreement for 50 years?

Price of “Kurdistan’s” independence – oil agreement for 50 years?

During a visit of the head of the Kurdish regional government (KRG) in northern Iraq, Massoud Barzani, to Turkey the sides discussed a number of issues, including measures against terrorist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which turned into a headache for both sides.

Most of the Kurdish leader’s meetings with officials from Turkey and a meeting with former Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi were held behind closed doors.

On the second day of his visit to Ankara after talks with Turkish President Abdullah Gul Barzani made not new, but this time more important statement.

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The New Hungarian Secret Police

The New Hungarian Secret Police

TEK was created in September 2010 by a governmental decree, shortly after the Fidesz government took office. TEK exists outside the normal command structure of both the police and the security agencies. The Prime Minister directly names (and can fire) its head and only the interior minister stands between him and the direct command of the force. It is well known that the head of this force is a very close confidante of the Prime Minister.

TEK was set up as an anti-terror police unit within the interior ministry and given a budget of 10 billion forints (about $44 million) in a time of austerity. Since then, it has grown to nearly 900 employees in a country of 10.5 million people that is only as big as Indiana.

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New federal agency OFR stirs ‘Orwellian’ fears

New federal agency OFR stirs ‘Orwellian’ fears

It is the most powerful federal agency you’ve never heard of — and lawmakers from both parties on Thursday vowed to keep abreast of its astonishing growth and rein it in, if necessary.

The Office of Financial Research, or OFR, was created by the Dodd-Frank financial services overhaul that President Obama signed into law in July 2010. Technically housed under the Treasury Department, the agency has until now received its funding not from the Congress, but directly from the Federal Reserve.

Starting in July, the OFR Fiscal Year 2013 budget, estimated at $158 million, will be funded entirely through assessments — also known as taxes — on bank-holding firms with consolidated assets worth at least $50 billion.

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South Korea Deploys Hyunmu-3C Missile For Strikes Within NK Territory

South Korea Deploys Hyunmu-3C Missile For Strikes Within NK Territory

South Korea has deployed a new long-range cruise missile that puts nuclear and missile sites in the entire North Korean territory within striking distance, defense ministry officials said Thursday, amid growing security jitters sparked by the North’s botched rocket launch.

The new, home-grown cruise missile has a range of “more than 1,000 kilometers and can immediately strike anywhere in North Korea,” said Maj. Gen. Shin Won-sik, the senior official in charge of policy planning at the ministry.

“While maintaining unwavering readiness with this longer-range weaponry, our military will firmly and thoroughly retaliate if North Korea conducts a reckless provocation.”

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Euro on brink of collapse: IMF

Euro on brink of collapse: IMF

The crisis-hit euro is teetering on the brink of collapse, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.

In a significant vote of no-confidence, Tuesday’s report from the global financial organisation admitted the troubled European single currency had “flaws” and was at risk of a “disorderly default and exit by a euro area member”.

And it warned that a euro meltdown could be even more devastating for the world economy than the 2008 credit crunch, the express.co.uk reported.

The admission in the World Economic Outlook from the IMF came amid renewed fears that Spain could soon follow Greece, Portugal and Ireland in accepting a multi-billion pound international bail-out.

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More U.S. cities set to enter default danger zone

More U.S. cities set to enter default danger zone

America’s swelling ranks of fallen municipal borrowers have been blamed in the past year on ‘what-were-they-thinking’ causes, be it a Taj Mahal sewer system in Alabama or an overpriced trash incinerator in Pennsylvania’s capital city of Harrisburg.

But the next series of major cities and counties in danger of defaulting on their debt can hardly point to one single decision for their malaise. Whether it be Detroit, Miami or Providence, Rhode Island, their problems have a lot more to do with financial policies that put them on course to live well beyond their means.

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Taiwan stages anti-China military exercise

Taiwan stages anti-China military exercise

Taiwan has begun its annual military exercise to simulate fending off air attacks and troop landings by communist China.

The Defence Ministry said the five-day Han Kuang, or Chinese Glory, exercise began Monday at air bases and along the island’s coasts. It said thousands of troops will participate in the drills but there will be no live firing.

Instead, officials say, soldiers will use computers to simulate shooting down Chinese drones and aircraft targeting Taiwanese military bases. Chinese drone use is increasing as the country seeks to economize on troop use.

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Syrian strife hits Lebanese border villages

Syrian strife hits Lebanese border villages

A few kilometres separate the two Lebanese villages of Ersal and Qaa from the Syrian border, both of which have been unwillingly drawn into the violence of the Syrian uprising. Unrest has been brewing in the region for weeks and recently it was on the receiving end of intermittent gunfire from the Syrian army. The situation remains tense despite the fragile new ceasefire.

Official sources are now reporting Syrian army incursions into Masharii Qaa (the Qaa Projects), a border town consisting of Ersal, a Sunni village, and Qaa, which is predominately Christian. Ersal supports Syrian opposition fighters, whom Qaa residents view with great suspicion.

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Kosovo’s demographic time-bomb

Kosovo’s demographic time-bomb

Kosovo is, however, a country of young people. Its two million inhabitants make up the youngest population in Europe: every second person is under 25. More than half of the ministers in Kosovo’s government are under 40. The country’s president, a former police commander named Atifete Jahjaga, was just 36 when she was elected last year. And, as officials like to stress when discussing the challenges faced by Kosovo, the state, which celebrated its fourth birthday in February, is the second-youngest in the world after South Sudan.

“You cannot find a single case in history where, within three or four years of independence, the major issues of development in a country were addressed,” says Kosovo’s deputy prime minister, Edita Tahiri. “I would say to our young people, give us time.”

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Is Turkey preparing for an intervention in Syria?

Is Turkey preparing for an intervention in Syria?

The short answer is yes. Although it won’t happen tomorrow or without assistance especially from the United States, which is evidently first going to allow Kofi Annan to try his luck getting Iran to broker a peace deal. But Abdullah Bozkurt, a columnist at Turkey’s Today Zaman newspaper, outlines the legal case for intervention that wouldn’t require UN Security Council authorisation (read: the say-so of Russia and China). This strikes me as the most likely set of events to unfold:

What will happen if the UN cannot get its act together, and Russia and China end up using their veto powers for the third time? Ankara will probably invoke the 1998 Adana agreement with Syria to justify the military interference while calling on NATO members for the application of the Article 5 of the NATO Charter, which says that an attack on any member shall be considered to be an attack on all.

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In Syria, send in the mercenaries

In Syria, send in the mercenaries

he world community, including the United States, is at a crossroads about the right steps to forcefully prevent the further slaughter of civilians in Syria. There are many good reasons to intervene — to stop the death, detention and probable torture of any number of innocents; to support the democratic right of people to consent to rule by a freely elected government; and to avoid a repeat of the U.S. inaction that allowed Iran’s dictatorship to prevail in 2009.

There are just as many reasons not to intervene — the sovereignty of nations; the moral hazard of providing U.S. troops where our national interest does not dictate; and the uncertainty about those we would be helping take power. All the while, do-nothing diplomatic talks and easily ignored cease-fires continue to fail because the talking doesn’t change the facts on the ground.

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Uzbekistan Seems About Broke — A Continuing Series

Uzbekistan Seems About Broke — A Continuing Series

Since the government of Uzbekistan’s economic and budget reports are unreliable, making proxy indicators about the only things that allow for any kind of realistic assessment of the government and country’s financial health. The latest sign of the Uzbek government’s poor financial health is the news that teachers and doctors in Vobkent district of Bukhara province have beenpaid a portion of their salaries in the form of chickens.

Public sector workers get 10 chicks each under the initiative, launched after cabinet ministers in February urged regional governments to boost domestic production of poultry, eggs, meat, and vegetables.

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Russia installs S-400 on Polish Border in response to US missile defense system

Russia installs S-400 on Polish Border in response to US missile defense system

The purpose of the S-400 “Triumph” anti-aircraft rocket complex is to combat air attack weapons (tactical and ballistic missiles, aircraft, including those based on “Stealth” technology, and other air targets) in the defense of administrative and political centers, critical facilities and areas in heavy fire and electronic
counteraction. According to open data, the S-400 can detect airborne targets flying at speeds of up to 4.8 km/s at a distance of 600 km. The area of effect from antiaircraft missiles is 400 km at a height of 5 meters to 30 kilometers above the surface. The complex can shoot down ballistic missiles at an altitude of 60 km.

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Color Revolution Cliff Notes: What’s the Best Way To Foment Unrest in a Foreign Country?

Color Revolution Cliff Notes: What’s the Best Way To Foment Unrest in a Foreign Country?

Shortly after the burning of Qurans at Bagram Air Force Base in Afghanistan became public in February, Iranian agents attempted to “instigate violent protests” inside the country, according to a story published Wednesday by the New York Times. Iran is often accused of instigating,fomenting, or stirring up violence and anti-Americanism in other countries. How, exactly, does a government go about fomenting violence?

With a mixture of videotapes, audio cassettes, and explosives. When U.S. missiles kill Afghan civilians, or U.S. forces commit an affront to Islam, Iran seeks to broadcast the news among the local population. Agents quickly generate and disseminate pieces of audio and video propaganda decrying the indignity and urging civilians to rise up against American forces. Some of these go beyond mere exhortations to violence

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Motley Crew: Using Force to Maintain a Standing Army in Tajikistan

Motley Crew: Using Force to Maintain a Standing Army in Tajikistan

Hunger, unheated barracks, beatings and regular outbreaks of disease: it could be life in a penal colony. But in this case, it describes the existence of a fresh military conscript in Tajikistan.

The brutal conditions are the reason many young Tajik men go to great lengths to evade country’s biannual military drafts.

“Many draftees emigrate, while those that have the means enter university because students are exempt until the end of their studies,” said Khursheda Rahimova, a lawyer for Amparo, a legal- support non-governmental organisation based in Khujand that monitors the draft.

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S.Korea, U.S. Practice Invasion of North Korea During Civil War

S.Korea, U.S. Practice Invasion of North Korea During Civil War

The annual joint South Korean and U.S. exercises dubbed “Key Resolve” last month for the first time practiced deploying more than 100,000 South Korean troops in North Korea to stabilize the country in case of regime collapse.

The two countries “practiced deploying a large contingent of troops to bring stability in the North in case of civil war in the wake of sudden change there,” a government source said on Thursday. “Seoul and Washington practiced preparing for sudden change in the North for the first time during last year’s Key Resolve drill, but this was the first time we went on the assumption that South Korean troops would be deployed in the North.”

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The Russian Military Has an Action Plan Involving Georgia if Iran Is Attacked

The Russian Military Has an Action Plan Involving Georgia if Iran Is Attacked

Russian Defense Ministry sources told the semiofficial news agency Interfax that action plans are being finalized to react to an armed conflict involving Iran and its nuclear program. The General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces “calculates” that military action against Iran will commence “in the summer” of 2012. Since Israel does not have sufficient assets to defeat Iranian defenses, the Russian military considers US military involvement inevitable (Interfax, March 30). Bits of information have been appearing, indicating the essence of Russian military action. Last December it was disclosed that families of servicemen from the Russian base in Armenia have been evacuated to Russia, while the troops have been moved from the capital, Yerevan, north to Gumri – closer to the borders of Georgia and Turkey.

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Israelis arming South Sudan with missiles

Israelis arming South Sudan with missiles

Sudan’s al-Intiba newspaper reported Thursday that Israeli organizations have started transferring logistical and military equipment to South Sudan forces.

According to the report, jets have been landing at a Sudan airport at 3 am every day unloading missiles, military equipment and African mercenaries. The paper did not name the organizations behind the alleged deliveries, which, according to the report, began earlier this week.

Border tensions have mounted since South Sudan gained its independence from Sudan in July last year. The dispute has centered on three main issues: The demarcation of the border, oil revenue sharing and refugees.

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Belarus special forces officer: why I fled to the EU

Belarus special forces officer: why I fled to the EU

The Diamond – an elite special forces unit in Belarus – is the personal security detail of President Alexander Lukashenko.

In a secret location outside the country, a former Diamond officer, Igor Makar, spoke to EUobserver about his experiences and why he fled to seek refuge in the EU.

He said the Lukashenko system has turned rank-and-file police and the state security service, the KGB, into “criminals.”

“The state itself makes criminals out of the police because they are entirely dependent on the state and carry out any order [they are given]. If the order is not fulfilled, then you will be fired and you can no longer feed your family,” he explained.

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Mali Coup a New Step towards Global Resources Grab

Mali Coup a New Step towards Global Resources Grab

The media uniformly stress that Mali is among the world’s poorest countries, which is basically true considering that it ranks 127th in the global GDP listing and 168th (of 179) (6) in terms of the index of human development (7). The ratings, however, should not overshadow the strategic importance and the economic potential of the territory of Mali. It borders seven other countries – Algeria, Mauritania, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Senegal – and sits on considerable natural reserves of gold, uranium, bauxites, iron, manganese, tin, and copper. According to fresh reports, the northern part of Mali is found to be rich in oil and, importantly, contains a usable underground water ecosystem.

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Turkey edges nearer to buffer zone for Syrians

Turkey edges nearer to buffer zone for Syrians

Events are pushing Turkey ever closer to setting up a buffer zone in Syria to protect civilians.

Turkish officials have long been hesitant about the idea, even while the U.N. reported that thousands of Syrians were being killed as President Bashar Assad’s forces crush dissent.

But on Monday, a Turkish official indicated that a surge of refugees from Syria might compel Turkey, preferably with international backing, to establish a buffer zone on Syrian soil to guarantee the security of its own southern border as well as the welfare of civilians fleeing violence.

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India/Balkans Package?: Turkey prepares for partition of Iraq

India/Balkans Package?: Turkey prepares for partition of Iraq

According to a senior government official who I talked to last week, Turkey has set things in motion to beef up a contingency plan for the future of Iraq in the face of the increasing likelihood that the country may be divided along sectarian lines under the joint pressure of the militant Shiite regime in Tehran and its co-conspirators in Baghdad.

The fallback position for Turkey now or Plan B for the future of Iraq is to create a united front, consisting of Sunni Arabs and Kurds, against the Shiite majority. Because of the sensitivity of the partition issue, the official spoke under the condition of anonymity.

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U.S. intelligence sees global water conflict risks rising

U.S. intelligence sees global water conflict risks rising

Fresh water supplies are unlikely to keep up with global demand by 2040, increasing political instability, hobbling economic growth and endangering world food markets, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment released on Thursday.

The report by the office of the Director of National Intelligence said that areas including South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa will face major challenges in coping with water problems that could hinder the ability to produce food and generate energy.

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New Chinese central banker worth watching

New Chinese central banker worth watching

With China’s economy slowing, expect the PBoC to weigh in with rate cuts and further easing on the level of assets commercial banks need to deposit with it.

In the meantime, the central bank of the world’s second biggest economy has just appointed three new members to its monetary policy committee.

All three are highly regarded economic professors from China’s most prestigious universities. One of them is Professor Qian Yingyi, a Harvard educated economist who had a tenured professorship at UC Berkeley in the ‘States.

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China’s Force Multipliers?

China’s Force Multipliers?

China’s penchant for breaching technological barriers has been in the news and is frequently being discussed in many forums. It is obvious that China’s “Peaceful Development” has more to do with preparing for higher levels of war in many theatres while declaring to the world that it means peace. Unfortunately for China there are not many takers for this declaration amongst the comity of nations, where China seems to have more adversaries than friends.

There has been plenty of speculation about whether some of the critical technologies would indeed be game changers in any future conflict. This paper seeks to examine some of the critical technologies where there is demonstrated potential to be game changers. The hype and overestimation of how this would tilt the balance of power in favour of China is largely due to a lack of understanding of the present state of such developments, gestation period prior to operationalisation and the limitations thereof. Let us look at them one by one.

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How Iran Risks Another Chernobyl

How Iran Risks Another Chernobyl

Russia’s relations with the “near abroad” – those countries it considers directly under its sphere of influence and manipulation – is a relic of the country’s long history of buffering the heartland from external threats through conquered vassal states. The Russian Federation’s nuclear cooperation with Iran, epitomized by the construction of the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, is no different.

Scratch beneath the surface of the Bushehr project and you soon encounter dysfunctionality and safety concerns that echo back to Russia’s own nuclear facilities, which include 11 Chernobyl-type reactors operating to this day, 26 years after the accident. An even closer look lays bare a smoldering core of safety problems – problems that go largely unnoticed because international attention is so often focused on Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons development efforts.

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Inside China’s secret ‘black jails’

Inside China’s secret ‘black jails’

China is set to pass a landmark criminal procedure law to provide more rights to detainees, including rendering all evidence collected under torture unusable, granting suspects immediate access to a lawyer, and obliging authorities to tell families within 24 hours of a relative’s detention.

But for those held in China’s so-called ‘black jails’ – secret detention centres where people are kept without charge and without having been formally arrested – what is written in law can be very different to what happens on the ground.

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New police surveillance drones could be armed with nonlethal weapons

New police surveillance drones could be armed with nonlethal weapons

As a Texas sheriff prepares to use an unmanned drone as his force’s eye in the sky, and perhaps even arm it with nonlethal weapons like Tasers and rubber bullets, civil liberties groups are crying foul.

In the coming weeks, the Montgomery County Sheriff’s Office north of Houston says it will deploy a $300,000 ShadowHawk drone — bought with a federal homeland security grant — to spy on criminals, support SWAT operations and look for missing persons.

The unmanned helicopter is about the size of a large dog, has a range of 25 miles and can be operated for 11 percent of the cost of a manned helicopter, according to the ShadowHawk’s manufacturer, Vanguard Defense Industries.

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Eyes On China As US Pacific Command Changes Leadership

Eyes On China As US Pacific Command Changes Leadership

U.S. Pacific Command, which oversees more than half of the world’s surface and consists of 330,000 military and civilian personnel, has a new leader.

Adm. Sam Locklear took over command of PACOM for retiring Adm. Robert Willard during an elaborate ceremony Friday at Camp Smith on Oahu.

Most recently, Locklear served as commander of U.S. Naval forces in Europe, where he coordinated NATO airstrikes on the forces of former Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi.

“Because of Sam Locklear’s leadership, he brought NATO together into an operation that successfully took down Gadhafi and gave Libya back to the Libyan people,” said U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, who traveled to Hawaii for the change of command.

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Demand for ‘survival services’ rises in US cities

Demand for ‘survival services’ rises in US cities

Many cities across the United States are still scrambling to help their residents overcome the economic recession that officially ended more than two years ago, according to a survey released on Friday by the National League of Cities.

The league, which represents hundreds of civic officials, found that demand for “survival services,” such as food banks and housing shelters, had increased in 31 percent of cities over the last six months. It had fallen in only 8 percent of cities over that time.

Meanwhile, residential property values have declined in more than a third of cities, and commercial property values have dropped in 30 percent.

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‘HuT has formed shadow govt. for Pakistan’

‘HuT has formed shadow govt. for Pakistan’

Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HuT) chief for Palestine, Brigadier Amir Riaz, has claimed that the banned group has prepared a new constitution and a shadow government for Pakistan and that the group is ready to take over anytime.

Brigadier (retd) Ali Khan, who is accused of plotting to topple the democratic government and mount attacks on the army headquarters, had met Brigadier Riaz, head of 111 Brigade, while he was conspiring to overthrow the government and create Islamic caliphate, the BBC quoted a senior military officer, as saying.

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Pakistan is facing covert war

Pakistan is facing covert war

Militancy, suicidal attacks, bomb blasts, target killings, sectarian strife, ethnic violence and, most recently, the cold blooded murder of people belonging to the shia community, after being hauled off from buses in Kohistan area and almost similar mass murders of Hazaras – shia community – in Balochistan earlier, are not some disjointed or random instances of militancy or sectarianism, but very much part of a systematic and well organised operation. In fact, Pakistan is being subjected to a methodically planned and professionally executed covert (hidden) war.

This covert war has both internal and external dimensions. It cannot be denied that a lot of what is happening is because of our own misdeeds over the years, resulting in the radicalisation of the society. Yet, external interference has played the proverbial role of “adding fuel to the fire”. Let there be no doubt that external manipulation exploiting and aggravating skilfuly internal dissensions has pushed Pakistan to the brink.

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Syria Key To Iranian Defenses Against West

Syria Key To Iranian Defenses Against West

If Iran’s nuclear development facilities were bombed by the U.S. or Israel, the planning of both attackers and defenders would have to take into account the newly improved, long-range surveillance and intelligence-gathering facilities in Syria and Lebanon.

Russian radar and communications specialists have just completed improvements to Syria’s early warning capabilities that double radar ranges and establish a surveillance network covering all of the eastern Mediterranean, Israel, Jordan and northern Saudi Arabia.

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Illinois state ‘on brink of collapse’

Illinois state ‘on brink of collapse’

Illinois’ financial problems are forcing it to choose between its pensions and its teeth.

Governor Pat Quinn says the state needs to face its “rendezvous with reality” and tackle its dysfunctional budget habits. Top of the list, Mr Quinn says, is to slash spending on Medicaid, a federal programme that provides healthcare to poor Americans.

To save a system he says is “on the brink of collapse”, Mr Quinn proposes cutting $2.7bn from Illinois’ $11.5bn Medicaid bill. Few would dispute that the state needs to change its behaviour.

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China-Taiwan tensions could loom over U.S. ‘pivot’ to Asia

China-Taiwan tensions could loom over U.S. ‘pivot’ to Asia

Should the U.S. be willing to sacrifice Los Angeles for Taipei? It’s horrendous to contemplate, but it’s the kind of question that underlies a simmering debate over U.S. policy toward Taiwan.

As China’s economic and military power grows, and Taiwan’s long-term future remains unclear, that debate deserves a wider airing. The tension, and the stakes, will only increase as the Obama administration undertakes its much-trumpeted “pivot” to Asia.

Taiwan didn’t surface as a big issue in Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Washington. The reelection of Taiwan’s President Ma Ying-jeou, who has downplayed talk of independence and promoted ties with China, has also reduced cross-strait tensions.

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Egypt, Mexico, Pakistan most brutal police forces globally

Egypt, Mexico, Pakistan most brutal police forces globally

Mexico, Pakistan and Egypt topped a recent list of the world’s most brutal police forces. The blog Top Criminal Justice Schools, which details criminal justice programs across the world, listed Egypt ahead of Russia, North Korea and Iran as being more brutal.

“People on the right side of the legal system aren’t safe either: even human rights lawyers have reportedly been attacked and beaten up while attempting to visit their clients. The causes of such brutality are deeply rooted: before the Arab Spring the police were an instrument of repression for the old regime, and many officers have evidently found it difficult to shake off old habits,” wrote the site on Egypt’s police violence.

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Caucasus Cataclysm: World War 3 Begins in Spring Says Russian Presidential Candidate

Caucasus Cataclysm: World War 3 Begins in Spring Says Russian Presidential Candidate

The Russian presidential candidate, the LDPR leader Vladimir Zhirinovski stated that in summer World War III will start. “As soon as they crush Syria, Iran will be the next. Azerbaijan will take advantage and try to recapture Karabakh. Armenia will counteract. Turkey will support Azerbaijan. Here’s how our country can be drawn into a war in the summer of 2012,” he said.

Besides, there are already opinions of experts, mainly from Armenia and Russia, stating that the U.S. “agreed” with Azerbaijan to “give” it Karabakh in return for support to action on Iraq.

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Middle East risks becoming a ‘giant failed state’

Middle East risks becoming a ‘giant failed state’

With EU countries crafting plans on how to shape events in Syria, David Hirst, a noted British writer on the Middle East, has warned that the Arab uprisings are a kind of “constructive chaos” completely out of Western control.

“What we’re now witnessing is the greatest transformation of the region since the end of the first world war,” he told EUobserver in an interview in his home in Beirut on Saturday (18 February).

“The order which the world powers imposed on the region after 1918 was an unnatural one. These uprisings have set in motion separatist forces which no one can really foresee. But it is not far-fetched to see it leading to the disappearance of whole states and the creation of new ones … The Lebanisation of the whole region is not within the bounds of impossibility,” he said.

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Clinton warns Somali ‘peace spoilers’

Clinton warns Somali ‘peace spoilers’

American Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Thursday threatened sanctions on anyone blocking reforms intended to end Somalia’s “hopeless, bloody conflict” and counter militant and pirate groups seen as a growing menace to world security.

Addressing a conference aimed at energising attempts to end more than 20 years of anarchy, Clinton also demanded greater efforts to cut funding for al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab militants fighting Somalia’s weak Transitional Federal Government (TFG).

Al-Shabaab is the most powerful of an array of militias spawned by the conflict in Somalia, where armed groups have a history of wrecking attempted political settlements and perpetuating war, instability and famine.

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Black Drone Down: Western Powers In Place To Secure Somalia’s Resources

Black Drone Down: Western Powers In Place To Secure Somalia’s Resources

All of these countries are on the Indian Ocean side of Africa, which is very likely the last great non-frozen, land-based pool of hydrocarbons on earth.

The global oil major ENI found $800 billion worth of natural gas off the coast of Mozambique last month.

BG Group (BG) found 4 trillion cubic feet of gas there as well. That’s more natural gas than is in Norway.

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Mali clashes force 120 000 from homes

Mali clashes force 120 000 from homes

Some 120 000 people have been forced from their homes in Mali since Tuareg-led rebels launched an independence bid last month in the country’s desert north, United Nations figures showed.

The conflict, which has seen rebels bolstered by fighters and weapons from Libya’s conflict launch a wave of attacks on military outposts, comes as the Sahel region grapples with a food crisis that aid agencies say will leave more than 10 million hungry this year.

Fighting in three of Mali’s eight provinces also threatens the holding of an election due in April.

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South Caucasus nations fear Iran-Israel war

South Caucasus nations fear Iran-Israel war

After two apparent assassination attempts against Israeli diplomats in the South Caucasus, many fear this fractured and strategically important region is being pulled into the rising tensions between the West and Iran.

All three countries that comprise the South Caucasus — Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia — maintain important relationships with both the West and Iran. Conflict between these two sides could destabilize the fragile, but strategically crucial peace in the region.

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Tibet officials ‘prepare for war’

Tibet officials ‘prepare for war’

Officials in the Tibet Autonomous Region have been ordered to recognize the “grave situation” in maintaining stability and to ready themselves for “a war against secessionist sabotage,” months before a major plenary session of the Communist Party of China.

The fight against the Dalai Lama clique is a “long-term, complicated and sometimes even acute” one, Chen Quanguo, regional Party chief of Tibet, was quoted by the Tibet Daily Thursday as saying.

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Is China Ripe for a Revolution?

Is China Ripe for a Revolution?

ONE HUNDRED years ago, on Feb. 12, 1912, the 6-year-old child emperor of the Qing Dynasty abdicated, ending more than 2,000 years of imperial rule in China. But this watershed moment for modern China will not be widely celebrated in the People’s Republic. The political climate in Beijing is tense as the ruling Communist Party prepares for a secretive transition to the next generation of leaders, with the untested vice president, Xi Jinping, expected to become president. Reminders of past regime change and the end of dynasties are not welcome.

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Interview with Thomas P.M. Barnett: Military Strategist and Best Selling Author

Interview with Thomas P.M. Barnett: Military Strategist and Best Selling Author

Thomas P.M. Barnett is a strategic planner who has worked in national security affairs since the end of the Cold War. In 2010, Tom became Chief Analyst for the New York/Tel Aviv/Sidney online consultancy, Wikistrat. He has also operated his own consulting practice (Barnett Consulting LLC) since 1998.

A New York Times-bestselling author and a nationally-known public speaker who’s been profiled on the front-page of the Wall Street Journal, Dr. Barnett is in high demand within government circles as a forecaster of global conflict and an expert of globalization, as well as within corporate circles as a management consultant and conference presenter.

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Is Jordan Next? MENA Civil Unrest

Is Jordan Next? MENA Civil Unrest

The Exclusive Analysis special report states that, “there is a low but increasing risk in the 6-12 month outlook, that in the face of unmanageable mass civil unrest, key elements of the security forces and the Hashemite family would be driven to depose King Abdullah II, in an attempt to appease protesters, while preserving the Hashemite monarchy. The Jordan civil unrest risk score has increased to 3.2 (severe risk) on Exclusive Analysis’s Foresight Country Risk online platform.

In October 2011, the Retired Military Veterans’ Movement, made up of East Bank tribes, criticised Prime Minister Khasawneh, appointed by King Abdullah, for not reforming electoral law and ‘not confronting threats to national identity’.

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Oil war in South Atlantic: Great Britain vs. Latin America

Oil war in South Atlantic: Great Britain vs. Latin America

At present a new escalation of tension between Argentina and Great Britain is being intensively discussed in the media. Does it mean that Las Malvinas (the Folkland Islands for Great Britain) may become the theater of war again? In the current situation a new war may become even fiercer – the reserves of the oil and gas fields which were discovered on the shelf of the archipelago are comparable with the reserves of the oil fields in the North Sea. The British experts, who estimate the reserves at 60 billion barrels, are probably lowering the real figure in order not to tease Argentine people.

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Maldives president quits after ‘coup’

Maldives president quits after ‘coup’

The Maldives’ first freely elected president has resigned after what his party called a “coup d’etat” orchestrated by opposition leaders with the backing of security forces.

Within hours of Mohamed Nasheed stepping down on Tuesday, his deputy – who is from a different party – was sworn in to replace him, promising to uphold the “rule of law”.

“It will be better for the country in the current situation if I resign,” Nasheed had told a televised news conference. “I don’t want to run the country with an iron fist. I am resigning.”

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Maldives soldiers fire rubber bullets at police protesting government’s ‘illegal orders’

Maldives soldiers fire rubber bullets at police protesting government’s ‘illegal orders’

Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed resigned Tuesday following weeks of public protests over his controversial order to arrest a senior judge, the military said.

Brig. Ahmed Shiyam told reporters that Nasheed has agreed to step down and hand over the presidency to his Vice President Mohammed Waheed Hassan. There was no immediate comment from Nasheed.

The resignation would come after weeks of protests in this Indian Ocean island nation known more for its lavish beach resorts than political turmoil.

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Kastelorizo: Mediterranean Flashpoint?

Kastelorizo: Mediterranean Flashpoint?

It is the far-flung, easternmost island of Greece, 80 miles from Rhodes, 170 miles west of Cyprus, but just one mile off the coast of Turkey. Kastelorizo (in Greek, Καστελόριζο; or officially Megisti, Μεγίστη) is tiny, comprising just five square miles, plus some yet smaller, uninhabited islands. Were Athens to claim its full EEZ, Kastelorizo’s presence would make its EEZ contiguous with the EEZ of Cyprus, a factor with great import now, at a moment of massive off-shore gas and oil discoveries. Kastelorizo with an EEZ benefits the emerging Greece-Cyprus-Israel alliance by making it possible to transport either Cypriot and Israeli natural gas (via pipeline) or electricity (via cable) to Western Europe without Turkish permission.

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Smaller ‘stans fret at Russia’s dominance

Smaller ‘stans fret at Russia’s dominance

Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia’s two smallest economies, are discovering that breaking free of Russian domination is a hard task, particularly when they lack their own hydrocarbon resources and struggle to forge good relations with other neighbors that might make up for that shortage.

Russian oil supplies meet more than 90% of Kyrgyzstan’s and Tajikistan’s oil needs, but Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are rich in hydrocarbon resources and could potentially overtake Russia as the two smaller countries’ main source of petroleum and other fossil-fuel supplies.

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UK riots: paratroopers are trained in riot control

UK riots: paratroopers are trained in riot control

Hundreds of soldiers from 3rd battalion The Parachute Regiment spent last week learning how to contain and arrest “rioters” in a series of exercises mirroring last summers violence.

Defence sources have confirmed that if violence were to return to British cities, especially during the Olympic Games, the Paras would be “ideally placed” to provide “short-term” support to police forces around the UK.

Such a request would have to be made by the Home Office and would have to have Prime Ministerial approval, according to the source.

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It looks like civil war: Syrian rebel forces are buying arms and fighting closer to the capital

It looks like civil war: Syrian rebel forces are buying arms and fighting closer to the capital

Sectarian rifts appear to be intensifying in these areas. The security forces are dominated by members of the Alawite sect. The battered Sunni majority has on occasion taken indiscriminate revenge, although many activists have shown remarkable patience and remained peaceful in the face of the regime’s onslaught. But a growing number are viewing an armed struggle as the only way out.

The majority fighting on the opposition side are defectors calling themselves the Free Syrian Army. Their leaders claim to command up to 15,000 men, though outsiders believe there may be no more than 7,000.

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SR FlashPoint Analysis 2012/1: History repeats itself, Dire straits in Hormuz

SR FlashPoint Analysis 2012/1: History repeats itself, Dire straits in Hormuz

Iran has set the stage for their own demise when they foolishly positioned themselves in the Straits of Hormuz. History has repeated itself once again and those who are students of history are patiently waiting for things to unfold as they should. From the Middle East to Middle America you can cut the tension with a knife. Iran has passed their Rubicon but no one is entirely sure how deep the ramifications will be felt and just how much they will reverberate and permeate autocratic leadership in the gulf.

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The Eurasian Triple Entente: Touch Iran in a War, You Will Hear Russia and China

The Eurasian Triple Entente: Touch Iran in a War, You Will Hear Russia and China

Despite the areas of difference and the rivalries between Moscow and Tehran, Russian and Iranian ties are increasing. Both Russia and Iran share many commonalities. They are both major energy exporters, have deeply seated interests in the South Caucasus, oppose NATO’s missile shield, and want to keep the U.S. and E.U. from controlling the energy corridors around the Caspian Sea Basin. Moscow and Tehran also share many of the same allies, from Armenia, Tajikistan, and Belarus to Syria and Venezuela. Yet, above all things, both republics are also two of Washington’s main geo-strategic targets.

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Arab Sheikhs fall in love with Renminbi

Arab Sheikhs fall in love with Renminbi

The short point is, the renminbi, the “people’s currency” also known as the yuan, is appearing in Doha. The China-United Arab Emirates (UAE) currency swap deal which was signed during Wen’s visit to Abu Dhabi last week already brings the yuan to the Emirates. The deal with the UAE is worth US$5.5 billion and the Chinese central bank statement said that it aims at “strengthening bilateral financial cooperation, promoting trade and investments and jointly safeguarding regional financial stability”.

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World Economic Forum: Global experts fear geopolitical disruption

World Economic Forum: Global experts fear geopolitical disruption

The bleak outlook at the start of this year is shared by a majority of 345 respondents from business, government, international organisations and academia.

“A major geopolitical disruption early in the new year would certainly tip the global economy in the wrong direction given current confidence levels,” said Lee Howell, the managing director at the WEF responsible for the Forum’s Global Risks Report 2012.

“The possibility of a geoeconomic disruption, such as sovereign default, is to some degree reflected in the market, but a major geopolitical disruption clearly is not,” added Howell.

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Maliki’s Failed Dictatorship: Iraq on the brink of civil war

Maliki’s Failed Dictatorship: Iraq on the brink of civil war

Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki’s security services have locked up more than 1,000 members of other political parties over the past several months, detaining many of them in secret locations with no access to legal counsel and using “brutal torture” to extract confessions, his chief political rival has charged.

Ayad Allawi, the secular Shiite Muslim leader of the mainly Sunni Muslim Iraqiya bloc in parliament, who served as prime minister of the first Iraqi government after the Americans toppled Saddam Hussein, has laid out his allegations in written submissions to Iraq’s supreme judicial council. Allawi, whose bloc is part of Maliki’s coalition government, demanded Wednesday that the prime minister grant the detainees legal counsel and due process.

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Militant Pakistan judges may trigger regime change

Militant Pakistan judges may trigger regime change

On Monday the Pakistani prime minister was threatened with jail for contempt by the supreme court and ordered to appear before judges, raising the possibility that he could be disqualified from office. His alleged offence is to refuse to reopen corruption investigation into the president, who is also chairman of the ruling Pakistan People’s Party. Zardari, who was dubbed “Mr Ten Percent” for his rumoured propensity for demanding kickbacks on government contracts, has presidential immunity. Gilani does not and may have to resign.

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Pakistan nuclear material among least secure in the world: Report

Pakistan nuclear material among least secure in the world: Report

A Nuclear Threat Initiative index ranks Pakistan second behind North Korea as having the least secure nuclear material, hence posing the most risk, experts said on Wednesday.

The index, which gave rankings on a scale of 100, listed Australia as having the tightest security controls among nations with nuclear material.

The Nuclear Threat Initiative, in a project led by former US senator Sam Nunn and the Economist Intelligence Unit, aims to draw attention to steps that nations can take to ensure the safety of the world’s most destructive weapons.

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Proxy Wars and the Middle East

Proxy Wars and the Middle East

One of the contention points that come to mind with the mention of the Middle East is the issue of proxy wars. Proxy wars have been used as one of the technologies of the struggle for survival—sometimes to keep expenditures down, and sometimes to escape accountability. The proxy wars are being carried out, sometimes through the states or insurgents, and sometimes through the sectarian and religious identities.

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Indian Army prepared for all eventualities in case of military coup in Pakistan

Indian Army prepared for all eventualities in case of military coup in Pakistan

Chief of Army Staff, General V. K. Singh, played down the rising tension in Pakistan, but declared that the army was prepared for all eventualities in case of a military coup in the neighbouring country.

“I assured you, your army is prepared for all eventualities. I would not like to comment on what is happening in Pakistan, our neighbouring country. That is not my domain to comment on it, but for various contingencies that may take place we are prepared,” General Singh told the media here on Thursday.

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Danger Waters: The Three Top Hot Spots of Potential Conflict in the Geo-Energy Era

Danger Waters: The Three Top Hot Spots of Potential Conflict in the Geo-Energy Era

In the years to come, the location of energy supplies and of energy supply routes — pipelines, oil ports, and tanker routes — will be pivotal landmarks on the global strategic map. Key producing areas, like the Persian Gulf, will remain critically important, but so will oil chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca (between the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea) and the “sea lines of communication,” or SLOCs (as naval strategists like to call them) connecting producing areas to overseas markets. More and more, the major powers led by the United States, Russia, and China will restructure their militaries to fight in such locales.

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Zbigniew Brzezinksi: 8 Geopolitically Endangered Species That Will Suffer From America’s Decline

Zbigniew Brzezinksi: 8 Geopolitically Endangered Species That Will Suffer From America’s Decline

With the decline of America’s global preeminence, weaker countries will be more susceptible to the assertive influence of major regional powers. India and China are rising, Russia is increasingly imperially minded, and the Middle East is growing ever more unstable. The potential for regional conflict in the absence of an internationally active America is real. Get ready for a global reality characterized by the survival of the strongest.

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Russian Warships Call at Syrian Port

Russian Warships Call at Syrian Port

Two Russian warships arrived in Syria on Sunday, news agencies reported, a visit that will likely be seen as a show of force and a display of support for President Bashar Assad’s government.

Five ships, including aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov and destroyer Admiral Chabanenko, put in at Russia’s naval maintenance and supply facility in the Syrian port of Tartus, Interfax said.

The ships were to be on their way on Monday, a Navy spokesman was cited by the news agency as saying. Earlier reports said the vessels, part of a group of Russian ships currently in the Mediterranean, were expected to spend several days at the Tartus facility, one of the Russian Navy’s few outposts abroad.

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U.S. debt is now equal to entire economy

U.S. debt is now equal to entire economy

The amount of money the federal government owes to its creditors, combined with IOUs to government retirement and other programs, now tops $15.23 trillion.

That’s roughly equal to the value of all goods and services the U.S. economy produces in one year: $15.17 trillion as of September, the latest estimate. Private projections show the economy likely grew to about $15.3 trillion by December — a level the debt is likely to surpass this month.

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China, Oil and Ethnic Cleansing in Horn of Africa

China, Oil and Ethnic Cleansing in Horn of Africa

In 2007 matters blew up, literally, when a Chinese oil exploration crew and their Ethiopian military bodyguards were attacked by fighters from the ONLF with a half a dozen Chinese nationals amongst the hundred or more Ethiopian soldiers killed in the attack.

Since then the Chinese have been much lower key about their plans to continue energy exploitation in the Ogaden.

2011 saw reports of Chinese oil company personnel in Ethiopian army uniforms doing exploration work back where all the trouble broke out in 2007 and once again in the midst of fighting with the ONLF.

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Eurasia Group’s Top Risks for 2012

Eurasia Group’s Top Risks for 2012

As we begin 2012, political risks dominate global headlines in a way we’ve not experienced in decades. Everywhere you look in today’s global economy, concerns over insular, gridlocked, or fractured politics affecting markets stare back at you. Continuation of the politically driven crisis in the eurozone appears virtually guaranteed. There is profound instability across the Middle East. Grassroots opposition to entrenched governments is spreading to countries such as Russia and Kazakhstan that were thought more insulated. Nuclear powers North Korea and Pakistan (and soon Iran?) face unprecedented internal political pressure.

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’N.K. power seen moving from military to party’

’N.K. power seen moving from military to party’

Cheon Seong-whun, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, noted that just because power is seen moving closer to the party does not mean the military’s significance will be reduced.

While the “military-first” policy is to control the armed forces directly, the more weight on the party means controlling the military through the party’s grip, he said.

“It can be interpreted as a change in how the regime manages the military but it does not mean that North Korea will be discarding the military-centered policy,” Cheon said.

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Zbigniew Brzezinksi: After America

Zbigniew Brzezinksi: After America

Not so long ago, a high-ranking Chinese official, who obviously had concluded that America’s decline and China’s rise were both inevitable, noted in a burst of candor to a senior U.S. official: “But, please, let America not decline too quickly.” Although the inevitability of the Chinese leader’s expectation is still far from certain, he was right to be cautious when looking forward to America’s demise.

For if America falters, the world is unlikely to be dominated by a single preeminent successor — not even China.

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Obama Makes Arms Sales A Key Tool Of U.S. Foreign Policy

Obama Makes Arms Sales A Key Tool Of U.S. Foreign Policy

In a striking departure from the ideological preferences of the post-Vietnam Democratic Party, President Barack Obama has made overseas arms sales a pillar of U.S. foreign policy. The President and his advisors apparently have decided that well-armed allies are the next best thing to U.S. “boots on the ground” when it comes to advancing America’s global security interests.

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Report: Iranian riyal hits record low as US sanctions batter currency

Report: Iranian riyal hits record low as US sanctions batter currency

Iran’s currency hit a new record low to the U.S. dollar on Monday, two days after President Barack Obama signed into law a bill targeting Iran’s central bank as part of the West’s efforts to pressure Tehran over its nuclear program.

State radio said the Iranian currency’s exchange rate hovered around 16,800 riyals to the dollar, marking a roughly 10 percent slide compared to Thursday’s rate of 15,200 riyals to the dollar. The riyal was trading at around 10,500 riyals to the U.S. dollar in late December 2010.

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Why Putin failed and the Russian democrats may too: The Sources and Risks of Russia’s White Revolution

Why Putin failed and the Russian democrats may too: The Sources and Risks of Russia’s White Revolution

It is yet unclear what the exact outcome of the current upheaval in Moscow will eventually be. Nonetheless, speaking of an – at least, attempted – Color Revolution is already justified. To be sure, neither will Russia’s possible White Revolution become a real revolution, nor were the other Color Revolutions fully fledged revolutionary upheavals. Yet, we have now, in Russia, the typical pattern of mass protests after a falsified election that partly delegitimizes the incumbent leadership – a sequence similar to, though not (yet) identical with, what we observed in Serbia in 2000, Georgia in 2003, Ukraine in 2004 and Kyrgysztan in 2005 – as well as, perhaps, the Arab world, more recently. Why is the Putin system which looked stable as recently as a year ago currently failing? And what are the risks for the re-emerging democratic movement in Russia?

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25,000 radioactive sites in Russia

25,000 radioactive sites in Russia

There are as many as 25,000 hazardous underwater objects containing radioactive waste in Russia, emergency ministry officials said Monday.

The ministry compiled a list of sea hazards, including objects in the Baltic, Barents, White, Kara, and Black Seas as well as the Sea of Okhotsk and the Sea of Japan, RIA Novosti reported.

The hazardous objects include sunken nuclear submarines and ships carrying aluminum and oil products, chemicals and radioactive waste.

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Minerals: The Blood Diamond of Afghanistan

Minerals: The Blood Diamond of Afghanistan

Last year in June, the United States discovered nearly $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan, far beyond what was previously estimated. The mineral wealth of Afghanistan was no secret for Afghans. They knew Afghanistan was an intact mineral reservoir, and for centuries they used crude tactics to extract accessible resources. This recent discovery indicates that Afghanistan has a rich prospect ahead, and the country could be raised by its own bootstraps with the revenue from the mining industry. However, the real question is if the Afghan government is ready – and has the tools – to responsibly develop these deposits.

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US Cities Going Bankrupt In Economic Crisis

US Cities Going Bankrupt In Economic Crisis

With less than a year to go until America elects its next president, the country has been warned of a looming new economic crisis.

Major cities across the United States are declaring themselves bankrupt in the face of huge debts and declining revenues.

Birmingham, in Alabama, and Harrisburg, the state capital of Pennsylvania, are the latest high-profile cities to file for bankruptcy. Analysts warn as many as 100 American cities are at risk.

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Fallout is just beginning in North Korea

Fallout is just beginning in North Korea

There are many surprising things about Kim Jong-il’s sudden death, not the least of which is that it took two days for the rest of the world to hear about it. Yet most surprising is the sanguine reaction of the global and especially the Asian markets. On Monday, or actually Sunday as we now know, the world woke up to its first leaderless nuclear power. Coming as close as anyone could to filling his seat was his youngest son, who is in his late twenties. There’s no way these facts were accurately priced into markets that took just a relatively minor dip as a first response. The news from North Korea appears to have been taken far too lightly, and just a few days out, it’s disappearing from the front pages.

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