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Crisis, Flashpoints, Protest, Regime Change May 14, 2012

The Kremlin’s Cognitive Dissonance

It seems that for the past five months the authorities have been suffering from cognitive dissonance in their relations with Muscovites.

This is a disorder in which someone’s beliefs do not match objective reality. Unable to change his convictions, the person instead rejects reality and enters an imaginary world. That explains why Russian leaders behave as if they enjoy the support of the majority of Muscovites, despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

There have been more street protests in Moscow in the past five months than in the previous 15 years combined. Of course, the demonstrators account for only about 1 percent of Moscow’s population, but that means that there are several angry, opposition-minded people in practically every apartment building in the city. A Ph.D. in sociology isn’t necessary to understand that Muscovites are unhappy with the ruling regime.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Protest, Regime Change, Rigging, Risks May 13, 2012

Awaiting the Next Revolution

The violence that accompanied the inauguration of Vladimir Putin as Russian president this week is an ominous sign that Putin’s apparent desire to rule for life is leading his country toward a dangerous political confrontation.

Initial demonstrations following last December’s fraudulent Russian parliamentary elections were cheerful. Crowds of more than 100,000 kept to agreed meeting places and routes and even thanked the police for showing restraint.

On the eve of this Monday’s inauguration, however, police made 450 arrests and attacked demonstrators with batons, sending at least 17 people to the hospital. More than 20 police were injured by debris and beer bottles thrown by protesters.

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GeoPolitics, Public Relations, Regime Change April 27, 2012

Color revolutions won’t succeed in Post Soviet regions – Nazarbaev

The economy of Ukraine lost its leading positions due to color revolutions. Georgia lives on credits. All these make successful future of these countries doubtful. Kyrgyzstan has ongoing permanent revolution and livelihoods of people do not improve from that, President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbaev said in an interview with the Russia-24 television channel.

When asked about risks of recurrence or continuation of color revolutions in the CIS region, Nursultan Nazarbaev said some attempt was observed after the presidential elections in Russia, but color revolutions, their first wave, lost their strength, since the population of the post-Soviet countries became cold eyed.

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Conflict, Flashpoints, Military, Regime Change April 23, 2012

ECOWAS moves against the endangered business of coup plotting

From a community once dominated by military heads of state, majority of whom came to power through the usurpation of constitutional order, the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS) is fast gaining a reputation of intolerance of undemocratic succession to power.

From mere rhetoric and handling of military and undemocratic usurpers with kid gloves, ECOWAS has indeed transformed into a community that is ready to go to war to restore constitutional order.

Barely weeks after sustained pressure, including threat of military intervention, caused a reversal of the forceful take over of government in Mali by elements of its military, the sub-regional body once again bared its fangs against the military junta in Guinea Bissau, which forced its way into power penultimate week.

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Conflict, Flashpoints, Military, Powerplay, Regime Change April 17, 2012

‘Attempted military coup against Qatari regime fails’

A military coup was staged against the regime of US-backed Qatari King Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani with no success, a Saudi TV channel reports.

According to Al Arabiya TV, a number of high-ranking military officers rose against the Qatari Emir, triggering fierce clashes between some 30 military officers and US-backed royal guards outside the Emir’s palace, the report said on Tuesday.

The coup was foiled following the arrest of the officers involved in the effort.

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Development, GeoPolitics, Policy, Regime Change, Stratagem April 11, 2012

Duma in Spin Over Anti-Color Revolution Council

Russia’s State Duma’s CIS Affairs Committee announced on Tuesday the creation of an “anti-color revolution” council, but then retracted its statement several hours later after what appeared to be reluctance to go ahead with the plan.

Duma’s CIS affairs committee Chairman Leonid Slutsky told Kommersant daily on Tuesday that the committee would establish an “anti-revolution council” to study threats to Russia and CIS-States’ security.

“An expert and consultancy council will be established within our committee,” Kommersant quoted Slutsky as saying.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Military, Regime Change April 9, 2012

Belgium Raises Possibility of ‘Military-Aid’ Move in Syria

Belgium said Sunday that humanitarian intervention in Syria under the protection of military forces would be needed if the regime of Bashar Assad pursues the “path of barbarism”.

“The regime has taken the path of barbarism and I trust President Bashar Assad less and less,” said Belgian Foreign Minister Didier Reynders on TV5 television.

“There is a plan on the table with a deadline, April 10,” he added, referring to a formal U.N. Security Council endorsement of April 10 as the deadline for the Syrian army to withdraw from cities, with a complete halt to violence by all sides 48 hours later.

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Development, Flashpoints, Hard Power, Policy, Powerplay, Regime Change April 9, 2012

The Dominoes Are Falling: Key Events That Could Lead to the CCP’s Disintegration

Beginning in February 2012, it became clear that top leaders in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are locked in a power struggle—a power struggle so intense that as it plays out in public, China watchers are able to analyze it with some accuracy.

The following is a timeline of events—with the most recent on top—that our analysts predict are part of a domino effect that will eventually lead to the disintegration of the CCP.

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Analysis, History, Paramilitary, Regime Change April 6, 2012

Our Men in Iran?

It was here that the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) conducted training, beginning in 2005, for members of the Mujahideen-e-Khalq, a dissident Iranian opposition group known in the West as the M.E.K. The M.E.K. had its beginnings as a Marxist-Islamist student-led group and, in the nineteen-seventies, it was linked to the assassination of six American citizens. It was initially part of the broad-based revolution that led to the 1979 overthrow of the Shah of Iran. But, within a few years, the group was waging a bloody internal war with the ruling clerics, and, in 1997, it was listed as a foreign terrorist organization by the State Department. In 2002, the M.E.K. earned some international credibility by publicly revealing—accurately—that Iran had begun enriching uranium at a secret underground location.

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Analysis, Crisis, Flashpoints, Regime Change, Think Tanks April 5, 2012

West’s intervention in Libya tipped Mali into chaos

When Western forces helped topple Libya’s Moamer Kadhafi they forced hundreds of well-armed Tuareg fighters to flee home to Mali, tipping another fragile African state into chaos, experts say.

And for some observers, the Western powers’ role in helping trigger the crisis now gives them a responsibility to help try to end it.

“It must be said and said again that the factor that unleashed all of this is the Western intervention in Libya,” said Eric Denece, director of the French Centre for Intelligence Research (CF2R), a think tank.

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Conflict, Flashpoints, Paramilitary, Regime Change April 1, 2012

Gulf States to Pay Salaries for Syrian Free Army

Representatives of 60 countries pledged financial assistance to the main Syrian opposition group on Sunday, in an effort to encourage further defections from President Bashar al-Assad’s forces.

International envoys gathered in Turkey for the “Friends of the Syrian People” conference.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the U.S. has agreed to pledge an additional $12 million for a total of $25 million and to provide communications equipment to help the Syrian Free Army organize.

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Conflict, Diplomacy, Flashpoints, Paramilitary, Regime Change March 30, 2012

Foreign Policy Junta: Trained in The U.S.A.

The United States has a long history of inadvertently (and sometimes not so inadvertently) training future coup plotters around the world.

AMADOU HAYA SANOGO

Country: Mali

Training: U.S. military officials have acknowledged that Sanogo “participated in several U.S.-funded International Military Education and Training (IMET) programs in the United States, including basic officer training,” though it’s not yet clear which courses he took. He has affirmed receiving U.S. training in several interviews, but has declined to elaborate. Until this month’s events, the United States allocated $600,000 per year for military training in Mali as part of an effort to combat Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.

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Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Paramilitary, Regime Change March 30, 2012

Western Powers And Their Mideast Partners Lay Their Syrian Cards On The Table

The Kofi Annan Syrian peace plan has made the gears of the war machine move faster than originally planned. Russia and China have become impatient and want to see this come to an peaceful end ostensibly but their interests are in Syrian and Iranian oil, infrastructure and military sales. U.N. envoy Kofi Annan has met with China’s senior officials and this had led to pressure being put on Assad to agree to the peace plan. Their hope is that their businesses in those respective countries remain the same and they don’t want to lose their investments like they did in Libya after the invasion.

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Diplomacy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Regime Change March 25, 2012

Syria intervention talk as diplomacy withers

A year of sanctions, diplomacy and harsh rhetoric failed to stop Syria’s bloody crackdown and oust President Bashar Assad. With frustration running high, Turkey and other countries that have staked moral credibility on ending the violence are increasingly looking at intervention on Syrian soil, a strategy they have so far avoided for lack of international consensus and fears it could widen the conflict.

Diplomacy has not yet run its course, but more treacherous options, including aid to Syrian rebels, are likely to come up at a meeting of dozens of countries that oppose Assad, including the United States and its European and Arab partners, in Istanbul on April 1.

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Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Paramilitary, Powerplay, Regime Change March 21, 2012

Thousands of Red Shirts take over ‘richest part’ of Bangkok

Thailand’s “Red Shirts” congregated in their tens of thousands at an up-market Bangkok shopping district on Wednesday, preparing a “final battleground” in their fight to oust army-backed Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.

About 40,000 had gathered by evening as the prospect of further impasse looked set to hit growth in Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy after clashes on Saturday killed at least 22 people, Thailand’s worst violence in 18 years.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Military, Regime Change March 21, 2012

Mali seals presidency as gunfire heard in capital

Mali surrounded its presidential palace with armoured vehicles on Wednesday as heavy gunfire rang out across the capital Bamako and in a nearby barracks, Reuters correspondents said.

Correspondents heard 10 minutes of automatic gunfire coming from close to the state broadcaster, whose programmes went off air. Soldiers blocked the path towards its premises.

The incidents came amid growing anger in the army at the government’s handling of a Tuareg-led rebellion in the north of the country that has claimed dozens of casualties and forced nearly 200,000 civilians to flee their homes.

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Analysis, Crisis, Flashpoints, Regime Change February 26, 2012

Beyond the Fall of the Syrian Regime

Syrians are approaching the one-year anniversary of what has become the most tragic, far-reaching and uncertain episode of the Arab uprisings. Since protesters first took to the streets in towns and villages across the country in March 2011, they have paid an exorbitant price in a domestic crisis that has become intertwined with a strategic struggle over the future of Syria.

The regime of Bashar al-Asad has fought its citizens in an unsuccessful attempt to put down any serious challenge to its four-decade rule, leaving several thousand dead. Many more languish in jail. The regime has polarized the population, rallying its supporters by decrying the protesters as saboteurs, Islamists and part of a foreign conspiracy.

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Analysis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Regime Change February 17, 2012

Analysis: The system will provoke a revolution in Russia

There is already a number of factors that work to decay and disintegration of the system. First – it is the volatility of oil prices, which could undermine our stability at any time, as soon as the price of oil close to $ 70 dollars per barrel. The second – starting collapse of the Soviet industrial structure. Third – the very fact that raskochegarennye hope people, pensioners and working to improve the material status is not justified. reserve fund will be depleted by the end of 2012.

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Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Regime Change February 17, 2012

U.S. intelligence chief sees limited benefit in an attack on Iran

An Israeli bombing attack might set back Iran’s nuclear development program by one to two years, America’s top intelligence official told a Senate committee Thursday, indicating that viable military options are far more limited than Israeli leaders have suggested.

James R. Clapper, director of National Intelligence, said he does not believe that Israel has decided to attack Iran’s uranium enrichment and other nuclear facilities. Clapper said the U.S. intelligence community believes that Iran’s leaders have not decided to build nuclear weapons but are pursuing technology that might allow them to do so.

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Analysis, Crisis, Regime Change, Risks February 12, 2012

Is China Ripe for a Revolution?

ONE HUNDRED years ago, on Feb. 12, 1912, the 6-year-old child emperor of the Qing Dynasty abdicated, ending more than 2,000 years of imperial rule in China. But this watershed moment for modern China will not be widely celebrated in the People’s Republic. The political climate in Beijing is tense as the ruling Communist Party prepares for a secretive transition to the next generation of leaders, with the untested vice president, Xi Jinping, expected to become president. Reminders of past regime change and the end of dynasties are not welcome.

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Analysis, Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, MockDrill, Regime Change February 8, 2012

Bold Alligator: Massive 11-Nation Military Drill Aimed At Fending Off Iran In The Straits of Hormuz

The scenario was part of Bold Alligator, an 11-nation training exercise involving upwards of 19,000 troops.

While the scenario may have been a fiction, the reality for all involved is a shifting military focus, as the US and other participating nations are increasingly watchful of coastal areas of the Middle East – in particular Iran – and countries like China and North Korea in the Pacific.

The Bold Alligator exercise involves scenarios of mine warfare, fighting in shallow water and fending off attacks from smaller boats; methods known to be familiar to the Iranian Navy.

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Military, News, Regime Change February 8, 2012

U.S. military beginning review of Syria options

Although the U.S. focus remains on exerting diplomatic and economic pressure on Syria, the Pentagon and the U.S. Central Command have begun a preliminary internal review of U.S. military capabilities, CNN has learned.

The options are being prepared in the event President Barack Obama were to call for them. Two senior administration officials who spoke about the review to CNN emphasized that U.S. policy for now remains the use of non-military options.

The focus on diplomatic options was underscored by the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations in an interview with CNN on Tuesday.

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Crisis, Protest, Regime Change, Risks February 8, 2012

Maldives president quits after ‘coup’

The Maldives’ first freely elected president has resigned after what his party called a “coup d’etat” orchestrated by opposition leaders with the backing of security forces.

Within hours of Mohamed Nasheed stepping down on Tuesday, his deputy – who is from a different party – was sworn in to replace him, promising to uphold the “rule of law”.

“It will be better for the country in the current situation if I resign,” Nasheed had told a televised news conference. “I don’t want to run the country with an iron fist. I am resigning.”

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Protest, Regime Change February 7, 2012

Jordan: Increased risk of coup d’etat envisioned

The special report states that, “there is a low but increasing risk in the 6-12 month outlook, that in the face of unmanageable mass civil unrest, key elements of the security forces and the Hashemite family would be driven to depose King Abdullah II, in an attempt to appease protesters, while preserving the Hashemite monarchy.

In October 2011, the Retired Military Veterans’ Movement, made up of East Bank tribes, criticized Prime Minister Khasawneh, appointed by King Abdullah, for not reforming electoral law and ‘not confronting threats to national identity’. Videos have also surfaced during the past six months of an influential East Bank tribal leader implicitly criticisingthe king as being out of touch with his country.

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Analysis, Commentary, Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Military Buildup, Regime Change, Risks January 27, 2012

SR FlashPoint Analysis 2012/1: History repeats itself, Dire straits in Hormuz

Iran has set the stage for their own demise when they foolishly positioned themselves in the Straits of Hormuz. History has repeated itself once again and those who are students of history are patiently waiting for things to unfold as they should. From the Middle East to Middle America you can cut the tension with a knife. Iran has passed their Rubicon but no one is entirely sure how deep the ramifications will be felt and just how much they will reverberate and permeate autocratic leadership in the gulf.

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GeoPolitics, Regime Change January 23, 2012

Saleh’s 33-year rule in Yemen set to end

Outgoing President Ali Abdullah Saleh apologized for “any shortcoming” in his 33-year rule before leaving Yemen for the United States on Sunday, paving the way for a transfer of power after a year of unrest.

“God willing, I will leave for (medical) treatment in the United States and I will return to Sanaa as head of the General People’s Congress party,” he told senior party and government officials in a televised speech.

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Flashpoints, Regime Change, Risks January 17, 2012

Militant Pakistan judges may trigger regime change

On Monday the Pakistani prime minister was threatened with jail for contempt by the supreme court and ordered to appear before judges, raising the possibility that he could be disqualified from office. His alleged offence is to refuse to reopen corruption investigation into the president, who is also chairman of the ruling Pakistan People’s Party. Zardari, who was dubbed “Mr Ten Percent” for his rumoured propensity for demanding kickbacks on government contracts, has presidential immunity. Gilani does not and may have to resign.

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Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Intelligensia, Regime Change January 13, 2012

False Flag: Mossad posed as US spies to recruit terrorists to fight covert Iran war

Buried deep in the archives of America’s intelligence services are a series of memos, written during the last years of President George W. Bush’s administration, that describe how Israeli Mossad officers recruited operatives belonging to the terrorist group Jundallah by passing themselves off as American agents. According to two U.S. intelligence officials, the Israelis, flush with American dollars and toting U.S. passports, posed as CIA officers in recruiting Jundallah operatives — what is commonly referred to as a “false flag” operation.

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Conflict, Crisis, Regime Change, Risks January 13, 2012

Proxy Wars and the Middle East

One of the contention points that come to mind with the mention of the Middle East is the issue of proxy wars. Proxy wars have been used as one of the technologies of the struggle for survival—sometimes to keep expenditures down, and sometimes to escape accountability. The proxy wars are being carried out, sometimes through the states or insurgents, and sometimes through the sectarian and religious identities.

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Crisis, Regime Change, Risks January 13, 2012

Indian Army prepared for all eventualities in case of military coup in Pakistan

Chief of Army Staff, General V. K. Singh, played down the rising tension in Pakistan, but declared that the army was prepared for all eventualities in case of a military coup in the neighbouring country.

“I assured you, your army is prepared for all eventualities. I would not like to comment on what is happening in Pakistan, our neighbouring country. That is not my domain to comment on it, but for various contingencies that may take place we are prepared,” General Singh told the media here on Thursday.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Intelligensia, Regime Change January 11, 2012

Israeli Mossad recruiting Iranian exiles in Iraq’s Kurdish region: report

The Israeli spy agency Mossad is using Iranian exiles living in the autonomous Iraqi region of Kurdistan to target Iranian nuclear experts and sabotage the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, says an Iraqi security official quoted by the French daily Le Figaro.

“The Mossad agents have increased their infiltration in the Kurdish regions of Iraq,” the unnamed security official was quoted as saying.

He said Iranian refugees in the Kurdish regions opposed to the current regime in Tehran are being recruited by the Israeli agents to target Iranian experts in nuclear technology.

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Military Buildup, News, Regime Change, Risks January 9, 2012

Russian Warships Call at Syrian Port

Two Russian warships arrived in Syria on Sunday, news agencies reported, a visit that will likely be seen as a show of force and a display of support for President Bashar Assad’s government.

Five ships, including aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov and destroyer Admiral Chabanenko, put in at Russia’s naval maintenance and supply facility in the Syrian port of Tartus, Interfax said.

The ships were to be on their way on Monday, a Navy spokesman was cited by the news agency as saying. Earlier reports said the vessels, part of a group of Russian ships currently in the Mediterranean, were expected to spend several days at the Tartus facility, one of the Russian Navy’s few outposts abroad.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Regime Change January 9, 2012

Syria opposition split raises calls for foreign intervention

The collapse of a deal between Syria’s two main opposition factions shows that voices calling for foreign intervention to topple President Bashar Assad have gained the upper hand over those opposing it.

But the quick unraveling of the pact, which ruled out such international action, ensures that achieving that goal will remain elusive since Western powers are loath to throw their weight behind a fractured Syrian opposition.

Wary of the risks of engendering chaos and wider Middle East conflict given Syria’s internal sectarian divisions and Assad’s alliance with Iran, NATO says it has no plans to intervene as it did to back Libyan rebels who toppled Muammar Gaddafi last year.

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Diplomacy, Flashpoints, Policy, Regime Change January 6, 2012

Russia’s ‘democracy package’ for Syria

The Russians have been talking a lot about a Yemeni solution for Syria, without going into too much detail. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov even said it publicly, twice, in less than a week, impressed by the win-win deal between Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh and his opponents.

Sources close to Moscow say that a “Russian Initiative” will be announced for Syria by late January, modeled after the Yemeni one.

The initiative, apparently, will be the brainchild of both the Americans and Russians, but it will be packaged and marketed as a Russian deal, from A to Z.

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Military, News, Regime Change January 2, 2012

US-Israeli missile exercise: prelude to Iran invasion

Israel, US to hold largest ever missile defense exercise this spring; thousands of US soldiers will be deployed in Israel.

Israel is moving forward with plans to hold the largest-ever missile defense exercise in its history this spring amid Iranian efforts to obtain nuclear weapons.

Last week, Lt.-Gen. Frank Gorenc, commander of the US’s Third Air Force based in Germany, visited Israel to finalize plans for the upcoming drill, expected to see the deployment of several thousand American soldiers in Israel.

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Analysis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Regime Change, Risks December 30, 2011

Why Putin failed and the Russian democrats may too: The Sources and Risks of Russia’s White Revolution

It is yet unclear what the exact outcome of the current upheaval in Moscow will eventually be. Nonetheless, speaking of an – at least, attempted – Color Revolution is already justified. To be sure, neither will Russia’s possible White Revolution become a real revolution, nor were the other Color Revolutions fully fledged revolutionary upheavals. Yet, we have now, in Russia, the typical pattern of mass protests after a falsified election that partly delegitimizes the incumbent leadership – a sequence similar to, though not (yet) identical with, what we observed in Serbia in 2000, Georgia in 2003, Ukraine in 2004 and Kyrgysztan in 2005 – as well as, perhaps, the Arab world, more recently. Why is the Putin system which looked stable as recently as a year ago currently failing? And what are the risks for the re-emerging democratic movement in Russia?

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Conflict, NGO, Paramilitary, Regime Change December 29, 2011

Influence And Guns For Hire: Engaging Non-State Armed Groups

Barrack Obama entered his term of the American presidency aiming to set a different tone for US foreign policy. One initiative which illustrates a change in attitude came in 2010 when the US State Department issued a Quadrennial Diplomatic and Development Review (QDDR). It was the first of its kind to be published, and emulated the long-standing Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR).

This first-ever QDDR, titled “Leading through Civilian Power,” set a course for US diplomacy of “engaging beyond the state.” Crisis and conflict resolution were to be regarded as a central national security objective, so the goal articulated in the QDDR was one of broadening US diplomatic efforts to include non-state actors.

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Analysis, Crisis, Flashpoints, Protest, Regime Change December 28, 2011

Is Russia on the verge of an ‘Egypt scenario’?

Some 80,000 Russians took to the streets of Moscow on December 24, calling for Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to step down and the December 4 parliamentary elections to be rerun fairly. There were a larger number of demonstrators than at a similar gathering on December 10 on Bolotnaya Square – but even more importantly, their demographic and political diversity indicated that the rally gathered support well beyond the ‘Facebook generation.’

The respected Levada Centre surveyed attendees and found that two-fifths were over 40 years old. The next-largest demographic was 23-39 year-olds (31.0%), followed by 18-24 year-olds (24.5%). Between two-thirds and four-fifths wanted Putin to leave office, the parliamentary elections to be cancelled, criminal charges to be brought against those who carried out election fraud and a new, liberal electoral law to be adopted.

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Crisis, Development, Flashpoints, Protest, Regime Change December 27, 2011

Street roars in Russia: “The Gulag Archipelago” shaken

Vladimir Putin has come to exasperate the people at the end of asphyxia. He has hands on everything, even the Russian president, Dmitri Medvedev, who he hopes to succeed in March, is in practice a puppet.

Russia saw a turning point in its history. For the first time, the power of the former member of the legendary and sinister KGB, Vladimir Putin, is also openly criticized.Not only the challenge and the wind of revolt that strikes the Arab world, seem inexorably reach this part of Eastern Europe which remained impervious to the ideals of freedom and democracy.

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Military, Paramilitary, Regime Change December 27, 2011

Coup attempt ‘fails’ in Guinea-Bissau

An army official in Guinea-Bissau has said there was a failed coup attempt, while the ill president of the West African country undergoes medical treatment abroad.

Fighting erupted between two factions of Guinea Bissau’s armed forces early on Monday, forcing the prime minister to seek refuge at a foreign embassy.

Residents said automatic weapons and rocket fire could be heard at the Santa Luzia army base in the capital Bissau but no casualties have been reported.

“Apparently, it is friction between the army chief and the head of the navy,” a Bissau-based diplomat said. “The prime minister has sought refuge in a foreign embassy.”

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News, Public Relations, Regime Change December 21, 2011

South Korean activists launch propaganda balloons over northern border

The leaflets sent by a small group of activists gathered at the border are sure to infuriate the North, which views such actions as propaganda warfare. The leaflets contained messages opposing another hereditary power transfer in North Korea, as well as portraits of Kim Jong-il and heir Kim Jong-un. It wasn’t immediately known if they mentioned Kim Jong-il’s death.

North Korea has previously warned that it would fire at South Korea in response to such actions, and Wednesday’s balloon launch comes at an extremely sensitive time for North Korea.

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Crisis, GeoPolitics, NGO, Regime Change, Risks December 20, 2011

Eurasian Spring: The Mink/Leopard Revolutions

At the 20-year mark of the Soviet Union’s collapse, protests have broken out now in two of its oil-soaked constituent states — Russia and neighboring Kazakhstan. In the latter, at least 15 oil workers and others died over the weekend. There is debate whether we are witnessing a spread of the Arab Spring, but I do not know why — clearly we are.

The key matter is context — Russians and Kazakhs are in the street of their own accord, but against the backdrop of wholly unpredicted upheaval in some of the world’s most compleat police states.

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Intelligensia, News, Regime Change December 19, 2011

South Korean Unification Ministry Staff Get CIA Training

Unification Ministry staff were given two intelligence analysis training sessions by the U.S.’ Central Intelligence Agency this year. According to the Unification Ministry, around a dozen members of its staff were trained by the CIA in April and November to learn to analyze intelligence from socialist countries.

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Crisis, Development, Flashpoints, Military, Regime Change December 19, 2011

Breakdown: Kim Jong-Il Dead, Brother-in-Law Cements Favored Position

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s brother-in-law Jang Song-taek was appointed vice chairman of the powerful National Defense Commission on Monday, rising to the effective No. 2 post in the Stalinist country.

Jang (64) is apparently a strong supporter of Kim’s son Jong-un for the succession. “The promotion of Jang Song-taek to vice chairman just a year and a half after his last appointment and the promotion of his aide Pak Myong-chol to minister of sports is clearly an effort to bolster Jang’s power to boost Jong-un,” said a North Korean source.

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Analysis, Border Incursion, Conflict, Military Buildup, Regime Change, Risks December 18, 2011

Russian Military Post in Armenia Cut, Russia Preparing for Iranian Invasion: Analysis

More than a year ago, Russia began to take steps to minimize losses from a possible military action against Tehran, and now preparations are nearly complete. The Russian military base in Armenia is fully optimized, military families have been evacuated from the country, the Russian garrison stationed near Yerevan has been cut, and military units have been moved to Gyumri, closer to the Turkish border. The US troops can hit targets in Iran from Turkey, writes Russian news source Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

In connection with the prospect of war against Iran, Russia’s Ministry of Defense is wary of Azerbaijan, which in the past three years has doubled its military budget, acquiring Israeli drones and other advanced means of intelligence. In addition, Baku has stepped up pressure on Moscow, demanding that it pay more in rent for the use of its Gabala radar station.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Regime Change December 18, 2011

Wrapped Up in Russia’s ‘Mink’ Revolution

Rigged elections sparked the so-called color revolutions in the post-Soviet states of Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan. But in Moscow, nostalgia for the old order and fear of change have been more entrenched. Mr. Putin often plays on those sentiments. State TV reminds Russians of the initial euphoria and crushing disappointments of perestroika, the Gorbachev-era thaw whose political debates and mass demonstrations were followed by the grinding poverty and humiliations of the Yeltsin years. “We’ve gotten up off our knees, now we want more,” says Tina Kandelaki, a 36-year-old talk-show host.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Regime Change December 15, 2011

Putin calls ‘color revolutions’ an instrument of destabilization

‘Color revolutions’ are a well-tested scheme of destabilizing society, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said.

“As far as ‘color revolutions’ are concerned, I think that everything is clear. It is a well-tested scheme for destabilizing society. I do not think it appeared by itself,” Putin said during his annual Q&A session broadcast live on Thursday.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Regime Change December 15, 2011

‘Pakistan spy chief had got nod to sack Asif Ali Zardari’

Omar Waraich in his blog on The Independent claimed that Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) chief Gen Shuja Pasha had sought and “received permission from senior Arab leaders to sack Z” (President Zardari), reported Geo News.

The blog said: “`I was just informed by senior US intel,’ Ijaz writes in a message on May 10, `that GD-SII Mr P asked for, and received permission, from senior Arab leaders a few days ago to sack Z. For what its worth’.” GD-SII was an anagram for DG-ISI.

Mansoor Ijaz, who had revealed the secret memo to Washington that said Zardari had feared a military coup after US commandos killed Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad May 2, told Geo News: “This information has been on the record now for the better part of six weeks.”

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Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, News, NGO, Regime Change December 15, 2011

U.S. to establish new fund supporting NGOs in Russia

The U.S. administration is in talks with Congress on the establishment of a new organization supporting NGOs in Russia, Philip Gordon, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, said on Wednesday, December 14.

“As part of our democracy strategy, the administration has been consulting with Congress on an initiative to create a new fund to support Russian non-governmental organizations that are committed to a more pluralistic and open society,” Gordon said.

“The fund would not require an additional appropriation, as necessary funding would be drawn from the liquidated proceeds of the U.S.-Russia Investment Fund – an example of successful U.S. foreign assistance to Russia,” he said at a meeting of a subcommittee in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

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Flashpoints, Intelligensia, Military, Regime Change December 13, 2011

Sources: Plan to kill Iran Supreme Leader thwarted

According to informed sources inside Iran, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has recently ordered the arrest of a number of prominent members of the Revolutionary Guards. He ordered to investigate them and others, who were not arrested, in a suspected plot to assassinate him.

The sources said that among those arrested and interrogated so far are some of Khamenei’s bodyguards. The sources conveyed that those arrested tried to convince Khamenei to visit Mlard missile base in western Tehran on November 12th. It should be mentioned that on that day a huge blast took place in this military base, which killed among others the head of ballistic missiles production and development unit.

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News, Population, Regime Change, Risks December 12, 2011

An ‘Arab Spring’ in Iran: A viable option?

As far as Iran concerned, the question of crucial importance should be whether such a strategy could indeed be applied to Iran, as some circles in the West, in Israel in particular, vividly claim it could. But before proceeding, let me underline boldly that Iran is undoubtedly not Yugoslavia and Middle Eastern dynamics dramatically differ from those of the Balkans, or any other region. Iran, at least, has been a power in its own right for nearly 2,500 years.

It is precisely for this reason that I keep repeating that Mahmoud Ahmedinejad’s candidature in the presidential elections was a carefully engineered “selection” of Iran’s centuries-long political culture. In that regard, the regime’s capacity to politically mobilize masses becomes critical.

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Border Incursion, Conflict, Crisis, Regime Change, Risks December 12, 2011

Syrian defectors regroup in Turkey, plot Assad’s end

Ayham Kurdi refused to open fire on unarmed protesters and is now an enemy of the Syrian state. A captain in President Bashar al-Assad’s army, Kurdi, 30, a soft-spoken man with a trimmed black moustache, deserted his post in June and fled to neighbouring Turkey with his family Today`s Zaman reported

He is now a member of the Free Syrian Army, a loose collection of deserters who are fighting to topple Assad.

Other Free Army officers have taken refuge in Turkey as well, including the group’s most senior commander, from where they communicate and coordinate operations with rebel units inside Syria.

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Flashpoints, Protest, Regime Change December 10, 2011

Russia protests: Moscow rocked by biggest since fall of USSR

If there was any doubt that significant numbers of Russians are ready to tear up the Putin-era social contract, which exchanges political freedom for relative prosperity, it was dramatically dispelled Saturday.

Ignoring ranks of riot police with unmuzzled dogs, gusting snow, and accusations by Vladimir Putin that protesters are dupes of the United States
tens of thousands of Muscovites poured into Bolotnaya Square, across the river from the Kremlin, to vent their anger at alleged fraud and vote-rigging on behalf of the ruling United Russia(UR) party in last weekend’s parliamentary elections

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Crisis, Development, News, Regime Change December 5, 2011

Syrian secret police defect

According to the activists based in Syria, at least a dozen Syrian secret police have defected from an intelligence compound, in what appeared to be the first major desertion from a service that has acted as a pillar of President Bashar al-Assad’s rule.

A gunfight broke out overnight on Saturday after the defectors fled the Airforce Intelligence complex in the centre of Idlib city, 280 km (175 miles) northwest of Damascus.

They estimate the number of defectors from the military so far at several thousand, mainly army recruits from Syria’s Sunni Muslim majority. Members of Assad’s minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shi’ite Islam, have a tight grip on the country’s military and security apparatus.

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Analysis, Crisis, Flashpoints, Regime Change, Strategic Interests November 28, 2011

Breakdown: Russia sends aircraft carrier to Lebanon, Syria

In December a vessel group led by the Northern Fleet’s aircraft carrier “Admiral Kuznetsov” will sail to the Mediterranean and the Russian naval base of Tartus in Syria.

The mission has nothing to do with the deadly violence in Syria between forces loyal to President Bashar Assad and the opposition, a naval spokesman told Izvestia.
- This was planned already in 2010 when there were no such events there. There has been active preparation and there is no need to cancel this, the spokesman said, adding that “Admiral Kuznetsov” will also visit Beirut, Genoa and Cyprus.

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Analysis, Crisis, Military, Regime Change November 28, 2011

On pins and needles and missiles in Tehran

On Nov. 12, two massive blasts at a nearby town rocked Tehran, the Iranian capital, and may have been an attempt to assassinate the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had been scheduled to be there at the time of the explosions. Now Israel and the West must be prepared for possible Iranian retaliation.

After the explosions, Iranians found themselves wondering whether Israel had attacked. The recent report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Iran’s nuclear weapons program and the warnings of military action by Israeli officials have alarmed Iranians about the threat of war.

The simultaneous explosions, which hit the Iranian Revolutionary Guards base 28 miles west of Tehran, not only shook the surrounding area but were heard and felt throughout Tehran, even breaking car and building windows.

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Analysis, Conflict, Crisis, GeoPolitics, Military, News, Regime Change November 28, 2011

Syria: Military Intervention A La Carte

After nine months of brutal repression that has killed over 3,500 people—the vast majority being nonviolent protestors—Syrian opposition groups are escalating the frequency and variety of their demands for international military support. What form that external intervention might take, what the intended military and political objectives would be, and what countries may contribute, remain altogether unclear.

On Thursday, Colonel Riyadh al-Assad, chief of the Free Syrian Army (FSA)—an armed opposition group of reportedly 15,000 Syrian soldiers who defected—explained:

“We are not in favor of the entry of foreign troops as was the case in Iraq but we want the international community to give us logistical support. We also want international protection, the establishment of a no-fly zone, a buffer zone and strikes on certain strategic targets considered as crucial by the regime.”

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Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Military, Regime Change November 23, 2011

France raises issue of Syrian intervention

Alain Juppé, France’s foreign minister, has raised the possibility that western powers could intervene directly intervene to protect civilians in Syria from the Assad regime.

He suggested that “humanitarian corridors or humanitarian zones” could be established to protect those under attack.

As the Assad regime presses ahead with its attacks on Syrian rebels, Mr Juppé has become the first senior western figure to raise the possibility of such an intervention. He said the issue would be discussed by European Union foreign ministers at a meeting next month.

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News, Policy, Powerplay, Regime Change November 22, 2011

Uzbekistan: Top Officials Jailed in Possible Purge

Uzbekistan-focused media have reported in recent days on what appears to be a wave of arrests among high-placed government officials.

Reporting on what might be the most high-profile casualty to date, the Tashkent-based Uzmetronom said on November 22 that President Islam Karimov’s law enforcement adviser, Ravshan Mukhiddinov, has been arrested as part of a corruption probe. At almost exactly the same time, deputy General Prosecutor Mukhiddin Kiyemov tendered his resignation, although nothing more of his fate is known, Uzmetronom said.

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Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Military Buildup, Regime Change November 11, 2011

Turkey deputy: weapons being smuggled to Syria

Mr Ediboglu, a member of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Turkey’s main opposition group, visited Syria in September with a delegation of his party. He said Syrian officials presented what they said was evidence of arms smuggling at the Cilvegozu border gate in Hatay. Trucks full of weapons had allegedly been unloaded in the no-man’s-land between the Turkish and the Syria control points, he said.

“The Syrians said the arms ended up with the Muslim Brotherhood,” an Islamic group opposing the regime of Bashar Al Assad, the Syrian president, Mr Ediboglu said.

The Syrian government has accused the US of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. Turkey has condemned the Syrian regime’s use of force against a seven-month-old uprising and has given political support to the Syrian opposition.

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Conflict, Military, Regime Change November 9, 2011

Russian hints that US might back Israeli attack on Iran

Maliki and the Shia political clans and militias are backed heavily by Iran, while the Sunni dissidents in the west of the country are backed by Saudi Arabia.

The Saudis and the Iranians seem now pitted in what has been called ‘the new great game’ across the Middle East – in Iraq, Bahrain, Yemen and Syria, where Tehran backs its old allies in the Alawite regime of Bashar al-Assad, while Saudi sends funds and materials to the insurgents.

Contrary to the expectations of the architects of ‘shock and awe’ interventionism of the George W Bush era, the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and its aftermath have led to a weakening of US influence in the region and unforeseen propaganda and political success for Iran.

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Intelligensia, Regime Change November 9, 2011

Mossad, CIA, MI6 Set up Spying Centers Near Iranian Borders

“Based on investigations, Mossad, CIA and MI6 spy agencies have set up spy bases on the borderlines of five neighboring countries (with Iran),” member of the parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission Zohreh Elahian told FNA.

“The bases are tasked with directing terrorist groups and even conducting sabotage and espionage operations against the Islamic Republic and its citizens,” she added.

Elahian named Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan as the five countries in which the US, Israeli and British spy agencies have established bases.

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Military Buildup, News, Regime Change November 9, 2011

Iran News Round Up

Mohammad Dehqan, who had earlier discussed the role of the Office of the Supreme Leader in revision of the Constitution in order to change the presidential system into a parliamentary one, has changed his mind: “It is possible that certain legal experts have certain viewpoints concerning the political structure of the regime, and some of these individuals may also be connected with the Office of the Supreme Leader, but it does not mean that the Office has directly investigated the political structure of the country and the Constitution.”

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Military, News, Regime Change November 1, 2011

Russia will not allow military intervention in Syria

ussian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday his country would oppose a Libya-style military intervention against the Syrian regime which is battling months-long democracy protests.

“We have many questions… after the UN Security Council adopted the Libyan resolution,” allowing military intervention to protect civilian lives, and “after the Libyan drama,” he said in Abu Dhabi, speaking in English.

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Military, Powerplay, Regime Change October 28, 2011

Preparing For Regime Change?: Turkey Shelters Anti-Assad Fighters

Once one of Syria’s closest allies, Turkey is hosting an armed opposition group waging an insurgency against the government of President Bashar al-Assad, providing shelter to the commander and dozens of members of the group, the Free Syrian Army, and allowing them to orchestrate attacks across the border from inside a camp guarded by the Turkish military.

The support for the insurgents comes amid a broader Turkish campaign to undermine Mr. Assad’s government. Turkey is expected to impose sanctions soon on Syria, and it has deepened its support for an umbrella political opposition group known as the Syrian National Council, which announced its formation in Istanbul. But its harboring of leaders in the Free Syrian Army, a militia composed of defectors from the Syrian armed forces, may be its most striking challenge so far to Damascus.

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Flashpoints, Military, Regime Change October 26, 2011

North Korean Regime Rattled By Libyan Regime Change

The North Korean regime is paying close attention to the latest developments in Libya because of the similarities between the Moammar Gadhafi and Kim Jong-il regimes. These include the psychopathic personalities of the dictators, their iron grip on power, and their hoarding of national assets to ensure their survival and buying of loyalty. It remained silent when Gadhafi was on the run after NATO forces intervened. Following the uprising in Libya, North Korea’s National Defense Commission, which protects the Km Jong-il regime, went into emergency mode, while all universities in Pyongyang were closed indefinitely in June.

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Development, Regime Change October 14, 2011

The Saudi-Iran Cold War: Will the Assassination Plot Heat It Up?

The supposed plot “is something new,” says Jane Kinninmont, a Middle East researcher at London think tank Chatham House who follows Bahrain and events in the Gulf. If true, “it will seriously raise Iranian-Saudi tensions.” It’s a deviation in a conflict that is generally relegated to rhetoric and diplomatic gestures, not concrete action. Says Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Doha Center: “There are long-simmering tensions between the Saudis and other Gulf states, and Iran. There’s a deep suspicion.”

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Flashpoints, Powerplay, Regime Change October 11, 2011

Breakdown: Time to impose a No Fly Zone over Syria?

When Syrian opposition members, exiled activists and U.S. Senators call for a no-fly-zone over Syria, what they are actually proposing is close air support. CAS is a different military mission from NFZs, and requires a different campaign plan, detailed mission plans, personnel, ordinance and surveillance and attack assets. Furthermore, CAS is a tactic that can be used to protect civilians, or to support regime change that requires an armed opposition on the ground. Neither the Syrian opposition, nor anybody else, has adequately explained how a CAS military mission will be integrated into a broader strategy of either civilian protection or toppling Assad.

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Crisis, Diplomacy, GeoPolitics, Regime Change October 11, 2011

Russia wants a share in post-Assad Syria

After months of “intense diplomacy”, the United Nations’ Security Council has failed to develop a position on the crisis in Syria. The failure came when Russia and China vetoed a resolution that urged Syrian despot Bashar al-Assad to end violence against the civilian population or face fresh sanctions.

Paradoxically, the double veto could facilitate stronger action by Western democracies against the Assad regime.

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Military, News, Regime Change October 6, 2011

Army defectors aim to overthrow Syrian regime

A group of military defectors known as the Free Syrian Army is emerging as the first armed challenge to President Bashar Assad’s authoritarian regime after seven months of largely nonviolent resistance.

Riad al-Asaad, the group’s leader and an air force colonel who recently fled to Turkey, boasted in an interview with The Associated Press on Wednesday that he now has more than 10,000 members and called on fellow soldiers to join him in overthrowing the “murderous” regime.

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GeoPolitics, Powerplay, Regime Change October 5, 2011

US behind ‘secession’ plot in Hong Kong?

Responding to WikiLeaks’ release of nearly 1,000 unedited US State Department cables about Hong Kong, an office spokesman accused American diplomats of contravening international law through their brazen interference in Hong Kong affairs.

“The conduct of the US has gone beyond the functions that are stated in the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations and other international laws,” the official China Daily quoted the unidentified spokesman as saying. “We have justification to be concerned and discontented. We demand that the US stop erring.”

A China Daily commentary, written by staff writer Bob Lee and published in the paper’s Hong Kong edition, added fuel to the fire.

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Policy, Protest, Public Relations, Regime Change September 20, 2011

Russia and Central Asia Fight the Arab Revolutions

In other examples, Uzbekistan took control over cellular phone companies, instructing them to report on any suspicious actions by customers and on any massive distributions of text messages through their cellular lines.

Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have also instituted news blackouts, while Azerbaijan too has targeted Facebook and Skype. In Russia, the FSB and Ministry of Interior reacted to the revolutions by proposing to amend the criminal code, making owners of social networks responsible for all content posted on their sites and forcing them to register with the state. The regime also has its own cadre of bloggers, like those who launched cyber-strikes against Estonia in 2007 and Georgia during the 2008 war, and is clearly prepared to use force if necessary.

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Conflict, Flashpoints, Hard Power, Military, Policy, Regime Change September 19, 2011

Tracking Barak Obama’s arc of instability

It’s a story that should take your breath away: the destabilization of what, in the Bush years, used to be called “the arc of instability.” It involves at least 97 countries, across the bulk of the global south, much of it coinciding with the oil heartlands of the planet. A startling number of these nations are now in turmoil, and in every single one of them — from Afghanistan and Algeria to Yemen and Zambia — Washington is militarily involved, overtly or covertly, in outright war or what passes for peace.

Garrisoning the planet is just part of it. The Pentagon and U.S. intelligence services are also running covert special forces and spy operations, launching drone attacks, building bases and secret prisons, training, arming, and funding local security forces, and engaging in a host of other militarized activities right up to full-scale war. But while you consider this, keep one fact in mind: the odds are that there is no longer a single nation in the arc of instability in which the United States is in no way militarily involved.

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Conflict, Diplomacy, Regime Change, Uprising September 19, 2011

Syrian opposition, in Turkey, moves to garner international backing

Unlike Libya, the opposition to Assad has failed to garner international intervention. Since March, the Syrian opposition has reported the deaths of more than 3,000 people and injury of another 20,000.

Still, at the council session in Istanbul, only the governments of Canada and Japan attended. Opposition sources said other countries had pledged to send observers.

Opposition sources said activists against Assad convened in Belgium, Britain, Egypt and Turkey to decide on the council membership. They said the majority of the representatives — 40 percent of whom come from Syria — consists of secular opposition members. Most of the names on the council were withheld to prevent reprisals by Assad.

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News, Powerplay, Regime Change September 12, 2011

Youth Propagandists To Prevent A Russian Kind of “Arab Spring”

On Friday, the head of the Federal Agency on Youth Affairs Vasily Yakimenko in semi-secret meeting of students put on a mission to prevent a recurrence of the Middle East scenario in Russia. Invited to the event who sent text messages to a short number, distributed in the capital’s cafes. Internet activity is in support of the current government promised to pay Yakemenko media popularity. From bloggers to work by psychologists, and seminars, such as Friday’s, will put on a regular basis.

Curiously, for a half hour of a concert hall agitvystupleniya “Mir” Yakemenko never uttered the name of the president, and power in his speech represented exclusively by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. To be fair – “United Russia” is also not mentioned.

Gathering at the meeting with the head Rosmolodezh conducted in secrecy, as it were. Or role-playing game. Young visitors to the capital’s cafes were given a week earlier with the bill for dinner white envelopes with the words: “If everything in life is happy, tell a neighbor envelope.”

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Military, News, Protest, Regime Change September 11, 2011

Egypt: Retry or Free 12,000 After Unfair Military Trials

Since it took over patrolling the streets from the police on January 28, 2011, Egypt’s military has arrested almost 12,000 civilians and brought them before military tribunals, Human Rights Watch said today. This is more than the total number of civilians who faced military trials during the 30-year rule of Hosni Mubarak and undermines Egypt’s move from dictatorship to democratic rule, Human Rights Watch said.

“Nearly 12,000 prosecutions since February is astounding and shows how Egypt’s military rulers are undermining the transition to democracy,” said Joe Stork, deputy Middle East and North Africa director at Human Rights Watch. “The military can end these trials today – all it takes is one order to end this travesty of justice.”

In a September 5 news conference Gen. Adel Morsy of the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) said that between January 28 and August 29, military tribunals tried 11,879 civilians. The tribunals convicted 8,071, including 1,836 suspended sentences; a further 1,225 convictions are awaiting ratification by the military.

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Diplomacy, Policy, Regime Change, Think Tanks September 10, 2011

Analysis: NATO needs to remove Assad rather than Gaddafi

“The West insists on the “brutal suppression of mass protests in Syria.” Why, then, it does not notice the harsh repression of Arab revolutions in Bahrain and Yemen? Isn’t this a case of double standards?”

“Neither the U.S. nor the EU want to strengthen Iran. After all, the fall of the existing regimes in these countries will be beneficial only for Tehran. All this, of course, raises certain questions. However, in contrast to Tunisia and Egypt, the regimes in Bahrain and Yemen in particular are surprisingly strong.”

“Does the West understand what kind of the opposition it is supporting and who is to replace Bashar Assad? Why do they not notice what the leaders of the Syrian “opposition” are like, for example, Sheikh Arura, whose motto is “Alawites to the grave, Christians to Beirut?”

“The problem is that not everyone in the West really understands the threat posed by these movements, and the degree of their extremism. Of course, the Islamists have not gone away, and they are preparing to use the fruits of the overthrow of the dictatorial regimes in their own way.

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Development, Diplomacy, Economy, Regime Change September 9, 2011

Funding Regime Change?: G8 Says Banks should help Arab Spring nations

The Group of Eight industrialised and developing nations is set to call on multilateral development banks and regional funds to broaden the scope of their cooperation to help Arab Spring countries make the transition to democracy and weather short-term economic instability, a draft statement of the G8 said.

G8 finance ministers, who are meeting in Marseilles in southern France today, will also review the $20bn support pledge made in May at a meeting in Deauville, a resort town in northern France, the draft statement, which was seen by Dow Jones Newswires, said.
At a meeting in Deauville at the end of May, the G8 pledged a $20bn package for Egypt and Tunisia to be channeled through funding from international financial institutions, and formed a partnership with North African states to help support democratic aspirations borne out of Arab Spring revolutions.

Since the Deauville gathering, the partnership has been extended to Jordan and Tunisia with Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the UAE joining the framework “in supporting the countries engaged in political and economic transformation,” according to the draft statement.

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Diplomacy, Flashpoints, Policy, Regime Change September 8, 2011

Tony Blair calls for regime change in Iran and Syria

Tony Blair calls for regime change in Iran and Syria as he blames Tehran for prolonging the conflict in Iraq after the 2003 invasion.

In an interview to mark the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, the former prime minister warns that the Middle East would be “very, very badly” destabilised if Iran acquired nuclear weapons.

Blair, who is the Middle East peace envoy, tells the Times: “Regime change in Tehran would immediately make me significantly more optimistic about the whole of the region. If Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons capability it would destabilise the region very, very badly.

“They continue to support groups that are engaged with terrorism and the forces of reaction. In Iraq one of the main problems has been the continued intervention of Iran and likewise in Afghanistan.”

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StratRisks: Global Insights, Global Intelligence, Strategic News and Risk Assessment "Praemonitus Praemunitus"

StratRisks:
Global Insights, Global Intelligence, Strategic News and Risk Assessment
"Praemonitus Praemunitus"