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Plans to strike Iran “ready”, says U.S. Israel envoy

Plans to strike Iran “ready”, says U.S. Israel envoy

U.S. plans for a possible military strike on Iran are ready and the option is “fully available”, the U.S. ambassador to Israel said, days before Tehran resumes talks with world powers which suspect it of seeking to develop nuclear arms.

Like Israel, the United States has said it considers military force a last resort to prevent Iran using its uranium enrichment to make a bomb. Iran insists its nuclear program is for purely civilian purposes.

“It would be preferable to resolve this diplomatically and through the use of pressure than to use military force,” Ambassador Dan Shapiro said in remarks about Iran aired by Israel’s Army Radio on Thursday.

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Party Intrigue: Will Political Scandal Delay China’s Once-a-Decade Leadership Transition?

Party Intrigue: Will Political Scandal Delay China’s Once-a-Decade Leadership Transition?

The rumors have floated around for a while now, as China’s leadership scrambles to contain political scandals and factional infighting that have inconveniently bubbled up just as the country is gearing up for its once-in-a-decade leadership transition. On May 9, Reuters reported its sources had confirmed that China was “seriously considering a delay in its upcoming five-yearly congress by a few months amid internal debate over the size and makeup of its top decision-making body.” Instead of occurring as expected this September or October, the 18th National Congress may take place between November and January 2013, according to Reuters.

The names of the bodies (or “central organs” as they are sometimes called) that rule China through the bureaucracy of the Chinese Communist Party are almost deliberately dull, as if their tedious designations can somehow obscure their tremendous power.

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Federal Reserve Approves Expansion Of Three Chinese Banks In US

Federal Reserve Approves Expansion Of Three Chinese Banks In US

The Federal Reserve said Wednesday it approved the expansion of the U.S. operations of three of China’s largest banks, including the first acquisition of a U.S. bank by a Chinese bank.

The Fed said it had approved applications from the Bank of China Ltd. and Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. to establish new branches. The central bank also approved an application by China’s largest bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd., to become a bank holding company through its acquisition of The Bank of East Asia.

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Sanctions if Nato supplies not restored: Defense Minister Mukhtar

Sanctions if Nato supplies not restored: Defense Minister Mukhtar

Federal Minister for Defence Chaudhry Ahmad Mukhtar said on Sunday that Pakistan might face sanctions if it did not allow Nato supplies as it would be a violation of international conventions.

Pakistan suspended Nato supplies after a US attack on its Salala post along the Afghan border in November killed at least 24 soldiers.

“Pakistan has signed international conventions under which it will not be easy for it to keep Nato supplies suspended as it may lead to sanctions,” the defence minister said while talking to reporters at a luncheon hosted by PPP leader Munir Ahmed Khan.

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China’s ‘princeling’ generals hit by Bo purge

China’s ‘princeling’ generals hit by Bo purge

The purge of Bo Xilai as Chongqing Communist party boss has thwarted the prospects for some “princeling” generals to join China’s top military body while giving President Hu Jintao a chance to boost his influence over the armed forces.

China is preparing for a generational leadership transition this year that will see most top political and military roles filled with new people. Two generals close to Mr Bo who are also princelings – descendants of senior Communist party figures – are now less likely to be appointed to the powerful 12-member Central Military Commission (CMC), according to two senior officers in the People’s Liberation Army.

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CIA: Following Trends and Triggers: Estimating State Instability

CIA: Following Trends and Triggers: Estimating State Instability

Estimating state instability is more than warning. It is a structured analysis of instability types, their likelihood and potential impact on US national interests, and their most likely and most dangerous manifestations. This kind of analysis goes beyond determining probabilities. It also structures scenarios and evaluates the potential impact of events.

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Turkey and China host biggest EU outposts

Turkey and China host biggest EU outposts

Staff numbers at embassies highlight EU interest in Turkey, China, the Western Balkans and in multilateral bodies, as well as member states’ ongoing reliance on bilateral diplomacy.

The EU’s top 10 delegations in terms of staff numbers are: Ankara (137), Beijing/Hong Kong (116), Moscow (102), Belgrade (100), Tel Aviv/Ramallah (97), Kiev (93), Sarajevo (92), New Delhi (87), Washington (86) and Nairobi (85). The EU also has 187 people posted to various branches of the UN, the WTO, the African Union, the OECD economic club and democracy watchdogs the OSCE and the Council of Europe.

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FOIA: FBI and police free to launch spies in sky over US cities

FOIA:  FBI and police free to launch spies in sky over US cities

The American skies may soon be full of drones after it was disclosed that domestic law enforcement agencies, from the FBI to local police, have been granted permission to deploy the unmanned aircraft.

Documents obtained under Freedom of Information laws show that more than 50 non-military organisations have asked to fly drone aircraft, many of which can carry cameras and surveillance equipment for spying, within the US.

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A Military and Intelligence Clash Over Spy Satellites

A Military and Intelligence Clash Over Spy Satellites

In recent years, advances in commercially available technology have allowed private companies to develop satellites carrying high-resolution sensors and perform many of the surveillance tasks that were once the sole preserve of classified satellites owned and operated by the intelligence community. Two private companies already provide some of America’s spy satellite imagery, at far lower costs than government-owned satellites, according to current and former government and industry officials and outside analysts.

But at the urging of senior intelligence officials, the Obama administration has proposed cutting the contracts for commercial satellite imagery in half next year — to about $250 million from $540 million — to help meet deficit reduction requirements, while bringing back more of the work inside the government, according to administration and Congressional officials and industry experts.

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The security situation in the SCO region is generally stable

The security situation in the SCO region is generally stable

On April 12, 2012, the Seventh Meeting of the Secretaries of the Security Councils of the SCO Member States was held in Beijing. Chinese State Councilor Meng Jianzhu chaired and spoke at the meeting.

Meng Jianzhu said that China is the rotating presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) this year. The 7th Meeting of the Secretaries of the Security Councils of the SCO Member States, which marks the prelude to a series of SCO summits, has laid a solid foundation for the successful holding of the SCO summits this year and for the Organization to better perform the functions of safeguarding regional peace, security and stability in the next 10 years.

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Is Turkey preparing for an intervention in Syria?

Is Turkey preparing for an intervention in Syria?

The short answer is yes. Although it won’t happen tomorrow or without assistance especially from the United States, which is evidently first going to allow Kofi Annan to try his luck getting Iran to broker a peace deal. But Abdullah Bozkurt, a columnist at Turkey’s Today Zaman newspaper, outlines the legal case for intervention that wouldn’t require UN Security Council authorisation (read: the say-so of Russia and China). This strikes me as the most likely set of events to unfold:

What will happen if the UN cannot get its act together, and Russia and China end up using their veto powers for the third time? Ankara will probably invoke the 1998 Adana agreement with Syria to justify the military interference while calling on NATO members for the application of the Article 5 of the NATO Charter, which says that an attack on any member shall be considered to be an attack on all.

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Duma in Spin Over Anti-Color Revolution Council

Duma in Spin Over Anti-Color Revolution Council

Russia’s State Duma’s CIS Affairs Committee announced on Tuesday the creation of an “anti-color revolution” council, but then retracted its statement several hours later after what appeared to be reluctance to go ahead with the plan.

Duma’s CIS affairs committee Chairman Leonid Slutsky told Kommersant daily on Tuesday that the committee would establish an “anti-revolution council” to study threats to Russia and CIS-States’ security.

“An expert and consultancy council will be established within our committee,” Kommersant quoted Slutsky as saying.

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Uzbekistan Seems About Broke — A Continuing Series

Uzbekistan Seems About Broke — A Continuing Series

Since the government of Uzbekistan’s economic and budget reports are unreliable, making proxy indicators about the only things that allow for any kind of realistic assessment of the government and country’s financial health. The latest sign of the Uzbek government’s poor financial health is the news that teachers and doctors in Vobkent district of Bukhara province have beenpaid a portion of their salaries in the form of chickens.

Public sector workers get 10 chicks each under the initiative, launched after cabinet ministers in February urged regional governments to boost domestic production of poultry, eggs, meat, and vegetables.

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Ex-Chongqing leader Bo stripped of party posts, wife detained

Ex-Chongqing leader Bo stripped of party posts, wife detained

Bo Xilai, the charismatic former Communist Party chief in the Chinese city of Chongqing, has been stripped of his remaining leadership roles for “violations of party discipline” and his wife has been detained on suspicion of murdering a British businessman, state-run media reported Tuesday.

Bo’s ouster last month as party secretary for Chongqing unleashed one of the most high-profile political shakeups in China since the crushing of pro-democracy demonstrations at Tiananmen Square in 1989.

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Iran To Shut Down Internet Permanently; ‘Clean’ National Intranet In Pipeline

Iran To Shut Down Internet Permanently; ‘Clean’ National Intranet In Pipeline

Millions of Internet users in Iran will be permanently denied access to the World Wide Web and cut off from popular social networking sites and email services, as the government has announced its plans to establish a national Intranet within five months.

In a statement released Thursday, Reza Taghipour, the Iranian minister for Information and Communications Technology, announced the setting up of a national Intranet and the effective blockage of services like Google, Gmail, Google Plus, Yahoo and Hotmail, in line with Iran’s plan for a “clean Internet.”

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The Dominoes Are Falling: Key Events That Could Lead to the CCP’s Disintegration

The Dominoes Are Falling: Key Events That Could Lead to the CCP’s Disintegration

Beginning in February 2012, it became clear that top leaders in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are locked in a power struggle—a power struggle so intense that as it plays out in public, China watchers are able to analyze it with some accuracy.

The following is a timeline of events—with the most recent on top—that our analysts predict are part of a domino effect that will eventually lead to the disintegration of the CCP.

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China Sees U.S. as Competitor and Declining Power, Insider Says

China Sees U.S. as Competitor and Declining Power, Insider Says

The senior leadership of the Chinese government increasingly views the competition between the United States and China as a zero-sum game, with China the likely long-range winner if the American economy and domestic political system continue to stumble, according to an influential Chinese policy analyst.

China views the United States as a declining power, but at the same time believes that Washington is trying to fight back to undermine, and even disrupt, the economic and military growth that point to China’s becoming the world’s most powerful country, according to the analyst

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LEND Network To Connect Leaders In Emerging Democracies

LEND Network To Connect Leaders In Emerging Democracies

The United States and Estonia will lead a groundbreaking new effort to support leaders in emerging democracies.

This was announced by the U.S. State Department after a meeting between Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and her visiting Estonian counterpart Urmas Paet in Washington, DC, on Tuesday.

The LEND Network (for Leaders Engaged in New Democracies) will leverage expertise from the Club de Madrid, the world’s largest forum of democratically elected former Presidents and Prime Ministers, and 21st century technologies developed by Google and OpenText to connect leaders who have successfully navigated the challenges of democratization with leaders in emerging democracies.

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The cracks in the BRICS

The cracks in the BRICS

As it prepares to hold its latest annual summit in New Delhi on March 28-29, the BRICS grouping — Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — remains a concept in search of a common identity and institutionalized cooperation.

That is hardly surprising, given that these countries have very different political systems, economies and national goals, and are located in very different parts of the world. Yet the five emerging economies pride themselves on forming the first important non-Western global initiative.

The lack of common ground among the BRICS has prompted cynics to call the grouping an acronym with no substance.

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India/Balkans Package?: Turkey prepares for partition of Iraq

India/Balkans Package?: Turkey prepares for partition of Iraq

According to a senior government official who I talked to last week, Turkey has set things in motion to beef up a contingency plan for the future of Iraq in the face of the increasing likelihood that the country may be divided along sectarian lines under the joint pressure of the militant Shiite regime in Tehran and its co-conspirators in Baghdad.

The fallback position for Turkey now or Plan B for the future of Iraq is to create a united front, consisting of Sunni Arabs and Kurds, against the Shiite majority. Because of the sensitivity of the partition issue, the official spoke under the condition of anonymity.

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Losing Geopolitical Battle in Syria

Losing Geopolitical Battle in Syria

The 3rd Millennium crusaders US, UK, France and other NATO members along with their ‘democracy lover’ Arab clients in Gulf Cooperation Council, Riyadh and Qatar with an Islamists ruled Ankara have been halted at Homs in Syria with stiff military ,political and strategic resistance internationally by Moscow and Beijing in UNSC and elsewhere. The delicate task of defusing the violent conflict situation and then working out some solution to save face has been entrusted to Kofi Annan; former secretary general of UNO, not Washington’s favorite .Kofi had described US led 2003 invasion of Iraq against the UN Charter and hence illegal .So an agreement on Annan is a significant trend in itself.

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Canada bails out of NATO airborne surveillance programs

Canada bails out of NATO airborne surveillance programs

The Canadian Forces hope to save $90 million a year by pulling out of NATO programs operating unmanned aerial vehicles as well as airborne early warning planes, according to documents obtained by the Citizen.

Defence Minister Peter MacKay gave U.S. officials a heads-up last year about the withdrawal, pointing out that it will free up 142 Canadians assigned to NATO for new jobs, the documents show.

The shutdown of Canada’s contribution to NATO’s airborne warning aircraft, known as AWACS, will save about $50 million a year, according to the records obtained under the Access to Information law.

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Illinois state ‘on brink of collapse’

Illinois state ‘on brink of collapse’

Illinois’ financial problems are forcing it to choose between its pensions and its teeth.

Governor Pat Quinn says the state needs to face its “rendezvous with reality” and tackle its dysfunctional budget habits. Top of the list, Mr Quinn says, is to slash spending on Medicaid, a federal programme that provides healthcare to poor Americans.

To save a system he says is “on the brink of collapse”, Mr Quinn proposes cutting $2.7bn from Illinois’ $11.5bn Medicaid bill. Few would dispute that the state needs to change its behaviour.

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US making ‘strategic bet’ on India in Asia, says scholar

US making ‘strategic bet’ on India in Asia, says scholar

India gets a key place in the US pivot toward the Asia-Pacific region because Washington is making “a strategic bet” that India will promote peace and security in the long term, according to a US scholar.

The unexpected attention given to India in Pentagon’s new strategic guidance “raises interesting questions about how India fits into the United States’ vision for security in the Asia-Pacific region,” said Amer Latif in a commentary.

Noting that Washington and New Delhi have been actively building their defence relations through defence sales, exercises, and high-level military engagements, he said: “Despite the impressive progress in recent years, questions still remain about India’s commitment and ability to be a security provider in Asia.”

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China’s War Chest: China sets up fund to bankroll takeovers

China’s War Chest: China sets up fund to bankroll takeovers

Boasting $3.2 trillion in foreign currency reserves, China has created a new fund aimed at financing takeover bids abroad. The fund also seeks to boost China’s currency in global financial markets.

In its drive to step up overseas investment, the Chinese government has set up a new fund worth 12 billion yuan ($1.9 billion), Shanghai International Group said in a statement Friday.

Shanghai International said it was responsible for running the fund, describing it as China’s “biggest ever fund of its kind.”

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Japan’s stealth forex interventions sold 1.02 tril. yen in Nov.

Japan’s stealth forex interventions sold 1.02 tril. yen in Nov.

Japan sold a total of 1.02 trillion yen ($13.3 billion) in unannounced market interventions in early November to stem the sharp rise of the Japanese currency against the U.S. dollar, Finance Ministry data showed Tuesday.

The stealth interventions followed the record 8.07 trillion yen intervention on Oct. 31 as the yen touched a postwar peak of 75.32 yen against the dollar. That action was immediately announced by the ministry and the Bank of Japan.

The series of moves reflect the intensity of Japanese monetary authorities’ efforts to shield the economy from the yen’s rise, which has significantly slowed the country’s exports and led to the first annual trade deficit in more than three decades last year.

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CSTO Agreement on Foreign Bases Frustrates Tajikistan’s Ambitions

CSTO Agreement on Foreign Bases Frustrates Tajikistan’s Ambitions

On December 20, 2011, members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) reached an agreement that makes it impossible for any individual country in the group to host a foreign military base on its territory without the full consent of all other members of the organization. The initiative empowers Russia to veto any foreign basing plans in Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Hence, the move serves as a continuation of Russia’s efforts to counteract the influence of the US military and reassert its own role in its immediate neighborhood (Interfax, December 21).

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Russia’s ‘democracy package’ for Syria

Russia’s ‘democracy package’ for Syria

The Russians have been talking a lot about a Yemeni solution for Syria, without going into too much detail. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov even said it publicly, twice, in less than a week, impressed by the win-win deal between Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh and his opponents.

Sources close to Moscow say that a “Russian Initiative” will be announced for Syria by late January, modeled after the Yemeni one.

The initiative, apparently, will be the brainchild of both the Americans and Russians, but it will be packaged and marketed as a Russian deal, from A to Z.

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Obama Makes Arms Sales A Key Tool Of U.S. Foreign Policy

Obama Makes Arms Sales A Key Tool Of U.S. Foreign Policy

In a striking departure from the ideological preferences of the post-Vietnam Democratic Party, President Barack Obama has made overseas arms sales a pillar of U.S. foreign policy. The President and his advisors apparently have decided that well-armed allies are the next best thing to U.S. “boots on the ground” when it comes to advancing America’s global security interests.

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Putin promises Russians psychotherapy, to build their ‘confidence’

Putin promises Russians psychotherapy, to build their ‘confidence’

The state should more extensively use modern means of communication with society. This was stated by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin at a meeting of the State Council, reports ITAR-TASS .
“The main goal – a national psychotherapy to inspire citizens confidence in the future” – curled Prime. Putin again compared himself to former U.S. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who during the Great Depression weekly appealed to citizens on the radio.

According to the head of government, the possibility of an American president were limited to radio, and now there is the television and the Internet.

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Central Asia Focus of Russia-China Rivalry

Central Asia Focus of Russia-China Rivalry

The years to come will see Central Asia at the centre of an economic competition as traditional ally Russia tries to regain ground from an increasingly powerful Chinese presence, a leading Italian expert on the region says.

IWPR asked Fabio Indeo, a research fellow at the University of Camerino who specialises in the geopolitics of Central Asia and the competition of external players for influence in the region, to comment on the growing role of China, and how Moscow is trying to counter it.

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CSTO slams door on US bases in Central Asia

CSTO slams door on US bases in Central Asia

he Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) today announced that no-one will be able to establish military bases on the territory of a CSTO member state without the express agreement of all other member states.

In practice, this is a setback for the United States, who will find it next to impossible to establish a new base in Central Asia once the lease on the Manas airbase in Kyrgyzstan expires in 2014, and a boost to Russia who, as a CSTO member state, has a veto on the construction of future bases.

The decision was taken at a meeting of all seven CSTO members – Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

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In Turkey, Biden Talks About Iran and Syria

In Turkey, Biden Talks About Iran and Syria

In his meeting with the Turkish president, the senior administration official said, Mr. Biden acknowledged that there were fears in the Middle East about what would happen if the uprising in Syria managed to topple President Bashar al-Assad. But he argued that Mr. Assad himself was the greatest cause of instability and sectarian strife. “The problem right now is Assad,” Mr. Biden said in the interview. “Could something emerge that is more disruptive regionally? I don’t think so, but it could.”

While Mr. Biden runs the administration’s policy on Iraq, he does not have as central a role on Iran. But Mr. Biden, officials said, has been an influential voice in dealing with the upheaval in the Arab world, because he has dealt with many of the players as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

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North Korea’s new class system

North Korea’s new class system

It is often overlooked how much North Korea has changed over the past 20 years. Its Stalinist and militaristic facade is carefully maintained by the state, but in the new circumstances it is increasingly misleading. Behind this official veneer of militant posters and goose-stepping soldiers, the society itself has changed much.

In a nutshell, the past two decades were the time when the state was steadily retreating from the private life, and also was losing its ability (perhaps also its will) to control the daily activities of its subjects as well as how they made a living. One of many significant changes has been the steady decline in the significance attached to family background (known as songbun in North Korean parlance) – once the single most important factor.

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Do Oligarchies Create Insurgencies?

Do Oligarchies Create Insurgencies?

One of the tenets of pop-centric COIN is that better governance will deliver the loyalty of the people who are the center of gravity over whom the insurgent and state contest. This usually means cajoling the state to reform and remove the worst abuses that serve to politically fuel the insurgency. Occasionally this is successful (El Salvador), frequently it is not (South Vietnam, Afghanistan) and in other cases it may be irrelevant as the method is eschewed in favor of indiscriminate brute force and punitive expeditions (Sri Lanka, Soviet COIN) but it begs the question of:

“What kind of governance is most likely to create insurgencies in the first place?”

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Medvedev: Russia may target US missile shield

Medvedev: Russia may target US missile shield

If Washington continues to ignore Russia’s demands about a proposed U.S. missile shield in Europe, Russia will deploy new missiles aimed at it and put arms control on hold, President Dmitry Medvedev said Wednesday.

The tough statement reflected a growing strain in U.S.-Russian ties, despite President Barack Obama’s campaign to “reset” American relations with the Kremlin, which were strained by years of tensions over U.S. foreign policy and the 2008 Russian-Georgian war.

Medvedev said he still hopes for a deal on the U.S. missile shield, but he strongly accused the U.S. and its NATO allies of ignoring Russia’s worries.

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Uzbekistan: Top Officials Jailed in Possible Purge

Uzbekistan: Top Officials Jailed in Possible Purge

Uzbekistan-focused media have reported in recent days on what appears to be a wave of arrests among high-placed government officials.

Reporting on what might be the most high-profile casualty to date, the Tashkent-based Uzmetronom said on November 22 that President Islam Karimov’s law enforcement adviser, Ravshan Mukhiddinov, has been arrested as part of a corruption probe. At almost exactly the same time, deputy General Prosecutor Mukhiddin Kiyemov tendered his resignation, although nothing more of his fate is known, Uzmetronom said.

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U.S. radars to take control over territory of Georgia

U.S. radars to take control over territory of Georgia

Vano Merabishvili, the Interior Minister of Georgia, and Ray Maybas, the US Secretary of the Navy, today examined coastguard cooperation issues. The meeting was held at the Office of the Interior Ministry behind the closed doors.

The question was about development of bilateral cooperation and security issues, Vano Merabishvili told journalists after the meeting.

“While different divisions of the Interior Ministry are financed from the state budget, the Georgia’s coastguard service is rendered substantial financial aid by the United States,” he said.

Merabishvili said Georgia will enjoy US assistance to install radar systems to control its space fully.

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Important Flashback: Spies Prep Reporters on Protecting Secrets

Important Flashback: Spies Prep Reporters on Protecting Secrets

Frustrated by press leaks about its most sensitive electronic surveillance work, the secretive National Security Agency convened an unprecedented series of off-the-record “seminars” in recent years to teach reporters about the damage caused by such leaks and to discourage reporting that could interfere with the agency’s mission to spy on America’s enemies.

The half-day classes featured high-ranking NSA officials highlighting objectionable passages in published stories and offering “an innocuous rewrite” that officials said maintained the “overall thrust” of the articles but omitted details that could disclose the agency’s techniques, according to course outlines obtained by The New York Sun.

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Obama to Aid Uzbek Dictatorship

Obama to Aid Uzbek Dictatorship

The U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee, in a move initiated by the Obama administration, has voted to waive Bush-era human rights restrictions on military aid to the Islam Karimov dictatorship in Uzbekistan, one of the most brutal and repressive regimes on the planet.

Torture is endemic in Karimov’s Uzbekistan, where his regime has banned all opposition political parties, severely restricted freedom of expression, forced international human rights and NGOs out of the country, suppressed religious freedom, and annually taken as many as two million children out of school to engage in forced labor for the cotton harvest. Thousands of dissidents have been jailed and many hundreds have been killed, some of them literally boiled alive.

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Britain has drawn up plans for collapse of the euro, admits Treasury minister

Britain has drawn up plans for collapse of the euro, admits Treasury minister

Pressed on the preparations, Mr Hoban added that the Treasury was “contingency planning for a whole range of outcomes”.

Asked if the Coalition would rule out ever joining the euro, Mr Hoban replied: “I don’t think there is any intention for us to join the euro at a time when it is breaking up.”

Treasury officials insisted that he had been speaking conditionally and had not meant that the euro was fragmenting.

However, eurozone leaders publicly admitted that the exit of some euro members was now possible.

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Military-doctrinal views of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Military-doctrinal views of the Islamic Republic of Iran

This year U.S International and Strategic Research Centre also studied military policy of Iran and came to the following results:

1. Non-central war strategy plays a crucial role in military doctrine of Iran.

2. IIR by implementing the idea of non-central war, compensates its underdevelopment in weapon and military technology and settles this problem.

3. The main goal in Iranian military doctrine is to prevent U.S. achievement its purposes in the region.

4. The main methods of non-central war, which Iran considered to implement against U.S.:

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Military Doctrine of the Republic of Turkey – Analyse

Military Doctrine of the Republic of Turkey – Analyse

The provisions of military doctrine of every state may alter depending on thorough change of military security environment, military-political situation, as well as on internal political development and radical changes regarding strategic choice. In this regard, revision and update of military doctrine from time to time is expectable. In order to evaluate influence of military doctrinal views on establishment of peace and stability, development of freedom and democracy, people welfare integration in South Caucasus, first of all military doctrines’ of the region countries (Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan), as well as military doctrines of Russia, Iran and Turkey, which have traditional interests in the region should be studies and evaluated in this regard.

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Kyrgyzstan to have pro-Russian president

Kyrgyzstan to have pro-Russian president

Now, that a Kyrgyz politician who is easy to negotiate with and familiar to Russian political circles is to come to power, projects may be unfrozen for providing financial assistance to Kyrgyzstan through the Eurasian Economic Community, the actual process of Kyrgyzstan’s accession to the Customs Union may be started and the implementation launched of the previously announced numerous joint projects in the energy sphere. Moreover, the analyst believes all this can be part of a strategy of creating a Eurasian Union.

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Bank for International Settlements: The bank risk Basel is missing

Bank for International Settlements: The bank risk Basel is missing

Inside the thought-process of global bank stabilizer, the Bank of International Settlements, many things change over the years. The consortium of central banks is charged with setting the standard that provides a measure of a financial institution’s core strength and tends to adopt new standards yearly. Mandates to maintain these traits are packed in the continually evolving Basel accords.

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America’s Foreign Policy and Foreign Media Battle

America’s Foreign Policy and Foreign Media Battle

In light of the failure of the direct approach, the Obama administration in 2010 announced that it was allocating $50m for a ‘comprehensive communications strategy’ in Pakistan. The funds were allocated to strengthen moderate Pakistani voices, counter extremist media and monitor local media for anti-American sentiment. The US State Department also aimed to improve the portrayal of American policy by independent outlets through increased engagement. Unsurprisingly, this allocation was termed a ‘bribe’ for the Pakistani media by the US government and was instantly viewed with suspicion and concern among the Pakistani public.

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Central Asia: Russia faces a dilemma in the field of security in connection with the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO troops from Afghanistan

Central Asia: Russia faces a dilemma in the field of security in connection with the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO troops from Afghanistan

Russia has recently taken steps aimed at strengthening the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), in the hope that he can thus overcome the growing risks to security, which may arise in connection with the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan. Completion of the withdrawal of foreign troops is scheduled for 2014 . At the moment, NATO is keeping the CSTO in the distance, rejecting requests from the last joint of the threats to regional security. Making the alliance to change his opinion was not an easy task for Russia, and the problem is definitely irritated the Kremlin.

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UK Kevorkian Politics: Elderly patients condemned to early death by secret use of do not resuscitate orders

UK Kevorkian Politics: Elderly patients condemned to early death by secret use of do not resuscitate orders

* Inspectors who visited Queen Elizabeth Hospital, run by University Hospitals Birmingham Foundation trust, found no evidence that any of the patients whose files were marked DNR had been informed about the decision, nor their relatives told. The hospital’s own audit showed that in one ward, 30 per cent of cases did not involve any such conversations.

* At University Hospitals Bristol Foundation trust, there was no evidence that a DNR order placed on a patient had been discussed with the person or next of kin. A junior doctor told inspectors that they did “not tend to discuss” such decisions with families.

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Iran could scrap directly elected president: leader

Iran could scrap directly elected president: leader

Iran could do away with the post of a directly elected president, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Sunday, in what might be a warning to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and possible successors not to overstep the executive’s limited powers.

Khamenei’s comment came with Ahmadinejad battling constant criticism from hardline conservatives accusing him of being in the thrall of “deviant” advisers who want to undermine the role of the Islamic clergy, including the office of supreme leader.

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Rio’s Unprecedented New Surveillance System

Rio’s Unprecedented New Surveillance System

80 interchangeable digital panels project live video feeds from 450 cameras and three helicopters, plus a dizzying array of tricked-out Google Maps of schools and hospitals, car accidents with real-time traffic to the nearest hospital, and close to 10,000 GPS-tracked buses and ambulances. There are temperature, wind, humidity, and air quality maps. Heat maps of dengue fever outbreaks. Crisis-mode maps of high-risk landslide zones. On one map, graphic simulations predict tomorrow’s weather within a 150-mile radius.
Rio de Janeiro, the second largest city in one of the world’s fastest-emerging economies, has created a survellience system that makes Big Brother live up to its name.

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India’s Kerala State to Adopt Two-Child Policy to Curb Population

India’s Kerala State to Adopt Two-Child Policy to Curb Population

Women’s rights leaders as well as Christian and Muslim organizations have criticized a new Kerala state police that restricts couples from having more than two children.

The new stipulations were passed in the Kerala Women’s Code Bill 2011 and was prepared by the Indian state’s Commission for the Rights and Welfare of Children and Women.

The move comes as India continues to witness a population boom and state governments are looking at ways to curtail the explosion.

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Military to expand strategic footprint Rejig to guard India interests

Military to expand strategic footprint Rejig to guard India interests

“I expect that at least by 2022, we are capable of taking care of India’s interests not only at home, but also abroad,” Air Chief Marshal Norman Anil Kumar Browne said today, setting a 10-year time frame.

“So far, our interest was defined from the Gulf of Aden (in the west) to the Straits of Malacca (in the east) but, as experience in Libya and other countries have taught us, we have to be able to reach wherever we have our interests,” he said.

Reflecting the dichotomy in India’s economic growth story, the military is swinging between the aspirational and the actual: its strategic global “vision” contrasts sharply with its “tactical” domestic and frontier compulsions.

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Secret panel can put Americans on ‘kill list’

Secret panel can put Americans on ‘kill list’

American militants like Anwar al-Awlaki are placed on a kill or capture list by a secretive panel of senior government officials, which then informs the president of its decisions, according to officials.

There is no public record of the operations or decisions of the panel, which is a subset of the White House’s National Security Council, several current and former officials said. Neither is there any law establishing its existence or setting out the rules by which it is supposed to operate.

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India may pay heavily in future for supporting the Karzai regime

India may pay heavily in future for supporting the Karzai regime

India’s decision to underwrite and, in effect, guarantee Hamid Karzai’s feeble Afghan government is not wholly lacking in logic. In a strategic pact signed on Tuesday, the two countries pledged to co-operate on trade and counter-terrorism, and Delhi agreed to train and equip Afghan security forces. With US and Nato forces edging towards the exit in 2014, it follows that Delhi, the region’s military and economic heavyweight and an aspiring superpower, should take up the strategic slack. But that is not how Pakistan or the Taliban will see the newly announced bilateral security, political and commercial “partnership”. India may yet pay heavily for its presumption.

India’s role, or “meddling”, in Afghanistan is already viewed with enormous suspicion in Islamabad..

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Watch out for Putin, and Russia

Watch out for Putin, and Russia

The news itself was hardly startling. It has been increasingly clear during the last year that the Regent (Vladimir Putin) would recover the throne from the Dauphin (Dmitry Medvedev). But now that it seems a certainty that Russia is headed for (at least) 12 more years of Putinism, alarm bells ought to be sounding. Why? Because by every indicator — macroeconomic, political, social — the system that Putin forged in the early 2000s is all but exhausted and is driving the country toward a dead end. It must be radically reformed, or better yet, discarded. But how can it be gotten rid of with its creator back in control?

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EU should prepare for default, Soros warns

EU should prepare for default, Soros warns

GREECE may be unable to avoid defaulting on its sovereign debts and Europe should prepare for that event to ease reaction in financial markets, billionaire investor George Soros said.

“Greece needs to do everything it can to avoid default, but it may not be able to,” Soros said on a panel at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington.

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R2P is the New COIN: Slaughter on Authority and International Law

R2P is the New COIN: Slaughter on Authority and International Law

This is the second part of a series analyzing Anne-Marie Slaughter’s ideas about ”Responsibility to Protect” doctrine, based on her Stanford Journal of International Law article, “Sovereignty and Power in a Networked World Order“, to better understand and critique the assumptions on which R2P rests. The topic will be Dr. Slaughter’s uses and conceptualization of “Authority” as it relates to international law and state sovereignty.

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CIA enjoying relations with many terrorist groups: Hina

CIA enjoying relations with many terrorist groups: Hina

Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar has said that Haqqani network was established by United States, adding that CIA also has relations with many terrorist groups.

She said that the US should avoid testing temperament of Pakistan, adding that Pakistan has the right to use options if US would continue blaming Pakistan and the doors of dialogue would be closed due the controversial statements of US leaders.

In an interviews with an Arab and US TV channels , she said that US cannot provide any proofs, adding that US itself established Haqqani network and leveling allegations on Pakistan for ties with Haqqani network.

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Russia ratifies military bases on Georgia`s occupied territories

Russia ratifies military bases on Georgia`s occupied territories

Russia’s President Dmitri Medvedev submitted to the State Duma for ratification an agreement between Moscow and Tskhinvali “on cooperation and mutual assistance in customs issues,” the Kremlin said on September 20.

The move coincided with 21st anniversary of so-called “Independence of the South Ossetian Republic,” marked in Tskhinvali on September 20 with a military parade.

In July, when President Medvedev submitted a similar treaty with breakaway Abkhazia to the State Duma for ratification, Tbilisi said the move demonstrated Moscow’s unwillingness “to constructively negotiate ” with Georgia.

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[Zbigniew Brzezinski] Toward universal political culture

[Zbigniew Brzezinski] Toward universal political culture

A common challenge to all of us is inherent in the ongoing transformation of global politics.

Let me begin with three broad assertions, then briefly elaborate on each of them, and conclude by making a modest proposal.

― First, global peace is threatened not by utopian fanaticism, as was the case during the 20th century, but by the turbulent complexity inherent in the volatile phenomenon of global political awakening;

― Second, comprehensive and enduring social progress is more attainable by democratic participation than by authoritarian mobilization;

― Third, in our time global stability can be promoted only by larger-scale cooperation, and not through imperial domination.

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Russia and Central Asia Fight the Arab Revolutions

Russia and Central Asia Fight the Arab Revolutions

In other examples, Uzbekistan took control over cellular phone companies, instructing them to report on any suspicious actions by customers and on any massive distributions of text messages through their cellular lines.

Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have also instituted news blackouts, while Azerbaijan too has targeted Facebook and Skype. In Russia, the FSB and Ministry of Interior reacted to the revolutions by proposing to amend the criminal code, making owners of social networks responsible for all content posted on their sites and forcing them to register with the state. The regime also has its own cadre of bloggers, like those who launched cyber-strikes against Estonia in 2007 and Georgia during the 2008 war, and is clearly prepared to use force if necessary.

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A future for drones: Automated killing

A future for drones: Automated killing

This successful exercise in autonomous robotics could presage the future of the American way of war: a day when drones hunt, identify and kill the enemy based on calculations made by software, not decisions made by humans. Imagine aerial “Terminators,” minus beefcake and time travel.

The Fort Benning tarp “is a rather simple target, but think of it as a surrogate,” said Charles E. Pippin, a scientist at the Georgia Tech Research Institute, which developed the software to run the demonstration. “You can imagine real-time scenarios where you have 10 of these things up in the air and something is happening on the ground and you don’t have time for a human to say, ‘I need you to do these tasks.’ It needs to happen faster than that.”

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R2P is the New COIN

R2P is the New COIN

The weirdly astrategic NATO campaign in Libya intervening on the side of ill-defined rebels against the tyrannical rule of Libyan strongman Colonel Moammar Gaddafi brought to general public attention the idea of “Responsibility to Protect” as a putative doctrine for US foreign policy and an alleged aspect of international law. The most vocal public face of R2P, an idea that has floated among liberal internationalist IL academics and NGO activists since the 90’s, was Anne-Marie Slaughter, former Policy Planning Director of the US State Department and an advisor to the Obama administration. Slaughter, writing in The Atlantic, was a passionate advocate of R2P as a “redefinition of sovereignty“ and debated her position and underlying IR theory assumptions with critics such as Dan Drezner, Joshua Foust, and Dan Trombly.

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Tracking Barak Obama’s arc of instability

Tracking Barak Obama’s arc of instability

It’s a story that should take your breath away: the destabilization of what, in the Bush years, used to be called “the arc of instability.” It involves at least 97 countries, across the bulk of the global south, much of it coinciding with the oil heartlands of the planet. A startling number of these nations are now in turmoil, and in every single one of them — from Afghanistan and Algeria to Yemen and Zambia — Washington is militarily involved, overtly or covertly, in outright war or what passes for peace.

Garrisoning the planet is just part of it. The Pentagon and U.S. intelligence services are also running covert special forces and spy operations, launching drone attacks, building bases and secret prisons, training, arming, and funding local security forces, and engaging in a host of other militarized activities right up to full-scale war. But while you consider this, keep one fact in mind: the odds are that there is no longer a single nation in the arc of instability in which the United States is in no way militarily involved.

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Tumult of Arab Spring Prompts Worries in Washington

Tumult of Arab Spring Prompts Worries in Washington

Crises like the expulsion of Israel’s ambassador in Turkey, the storming of the Israeli Embassy in Cairo and protests outside the one in Amman, Jordan, have compounded a sense of urgency and forced the Obama administration to reassess some of this country’s fundamental assumptions, and to do so on the fly.

“The region has come unglued,” said Robert Malley, a senior analyst in Washington for the International Crisis Group. “And all the tools the United States has marshaled in the past are no longer as effective.”

The United States, as a global power and permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, still has significant ability to shape events in the region.

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U.S. Keeping Mum On Military Aid To Uzbekistan

U.S. Keeping Mum On Military Aid To Uzbekistan

A week ago, after Human Rights Watch issued a statement criticizing the White House for seeking to ease restrictions on military aid to Uzbekistan, a State Department spokesperson promised to provide me with more information on what exactly sort of aid was being sought. After repeated inquiries, I still haven’t heard anything, so it’s safe to assume there will be no information for now. HRW suggested that the aid was to bribe Uzbekistan into greater cooperation with the Northern Distribution Network, the overland supply lines to Afghanistan that pass through Uzbekistan. The spokesperson told me that they had gotten several inquiries, but the only additional information (and it’s not much) has come from Steve LeVine, of Foreign Policy, who talked to an unnamed U.S. official:

The senior U.S. official, who asked not to be identified, argued that the U.S. is not bribing the Uzbeks, but “seeking congressional support so small amounts of non-lethal assistance can be provided so Uzbekistan can defend itself against possible retribution from militants who might attack them for supporting NDN.”

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Pak lobbying to block US military presence in Afghanistan beyond 2014

Pak lobbying to block US military presence in Afghanistan beyond 2014

Pakistan has begun secret diplomatic manoeuvres to forge a consensus among regional countries to thwart the United States’ plan to maintain a military presence in Afghanistan beyond the stipulated 2014 deadline, according to a news report.

Pakistan has stepped up efforts to take China, Iran, Russia and other neighbours of the war-torn country on board to “convince or force” the US to abandon the region by 2014, The Express Tribune reports.

Back-to-back trips by top Pakistani political and military leaders in recent months were all part of Islamabad’s diplomacy to seek support from countries bordering Afghanistan, the paper said, attributing to sources.

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The Berlinisation Of North Kosovo

The Berlinisation Of North Kosovo

In August 1961, the East German government began constructing the Berlin wall between East and West Germany; the stated aim of which was to provide an ‘Anti-Fascist Protection Rampart’. In reality, the wall’s main aim was to prevent freedom of movement between the two Germanys; as it did for almost thirty years, thereby becoming a symbol of the Cold War.

Kosovo – Serbia Relations

Fifty years on, the Kosovo government is now trying to build a new wall to divide Serbians on either side of the administrative line between Serbia and Kosovo. Under the declarative aim of preventing criminal activities in the north of Kosovo, Hashim Thaci – Kosovo’s prime minister, who stands accused by the Council of Europe’s special rapporteur, Dick Marty, of involvement in organized human organ trafficking – deployed ethnic Albanian Kosovo Special Forces to occupy administrative gates 1 and 31, and to impose the Kosovo government’s decision to establish an illegal embargo on products from Serbia.

The Kosovo government’s actions sparked a furious reaction from the local population, aggrieved at Pristina’s attempts to impose an artificial division between northern Kosovo and Serbia.

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What might a Greek default look like?

What might a Greek default look like?

If I borrow £1,000 from you and then, because of spectacular bad luck cannot pay it back, but I come to you and say, “here is £750, can we call it quits?” – that is a controlled default.

If I borrow £1,000 from you and you ring me up and you get directory inquiries in the Dominican Republic – that is an uncontrolled default.

Right now, Greece’s fate hangs in the balance somewhere between these two. It has already received what economists called a “haircut”. That is a voluntary agreement from its creditors to take 79 cents in the euro and extend the loans for up to 30 years. Ninety per cent have signed up to this.

Anything more than that should trigger a “credit event” allowing those who have insured themselves against losses on Greek debt to start calling in their money. That is what politicians fear will shoot the Greek debt issue like a sabot anti-tank round straight through the hull of the global economy.

The best example we have of an uncontrolled default is Argentina in 2001.

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‘Lehman’ Event: Expect Massive Policy Response In Europe, Bank Nationalizations And TARP In Drachma

‘Lehman’ Event: Expect Massive Policy Response In Europe, Bank Nationalizations And TARP In Drachma

The most scathing report describing in exquisite detail the coming financial apocalypse in Europe comes not from some fringe blogger or soundbite striving politician, but from perpetual bulge bracket wannabe, Jefferies and specifically its chief market strategist David Zervos.

“The bottom line is that it looks like a Lehman like event is about to be unleashed on Europe WITHOUT an effective TARP like structure fully in place. Now maybe, just maybe, they can do what the US did and build one on the fly – wiping out a few institutions and then using an expanded EFSF/Eurobond structure to prevent systemic collapse. But politically that is increasingly feeling like a long shot. Rather it looks like we will get 17 TARPs – one for each country. That is going to require a US style socialization of each banking system – with many WAMUs, Wachovias, AIGs and IndyMacs along the way.

“The road map for Europe is still 2008 in the US, with the end game a country by country socialization of their commercial banks.

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Sign of The Times: Banks Must Produce Living Wills To Tell Regulators How To Liquidate Them

Sign of The Times: Banks Must Produce Living Wills To Tell Regulators How To Liquidate Them

The financial crisis caught many regulators off-guard and unprepared for what would be years of clean-up. It’s a scenario they don’t want to find themselves in again.

That’s why the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp board voted today to approve rules that would force financial firms to write so-called “living wills” that map out how to liquidate them in the event of their failure. The rule stems from the chaos surrounding the Lehman Brothers failure which left its creditors scrambling to recover their money.

The FDIC rule covers 37 banks and thrifts with more than $50 billion in assets including Bank of America,Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo. The largest institutions with more than $250 billion in non-bank assets will have to submit their plans in July 2012. Those with assets between $100 billion and $250 billion would file by July 2013, and all other firms must submit plans by December 2013.

FDIC Acting Chairman Martin J. Gruenberg said, “The FDIC’s Interim Final Rule requiring insured depository institutions with assets over $50 billion to submit resolution plans is intended to serve as a complement to the joint rulemaking with the Federal Reserve under the Dodd-Frank Act that was also approved by the FDIC Board today.

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Why China wants a G3 world

Why China wants a G3 world

Of all the formulations deployed in recent years to describe the emerging world order, G2 is probably the worst and most dangerous.

Americans don’t like the idea of another rival so quickly achieving strategic parity and influence, and the Chinese are uncomfortable with such a high-level responsibility commensurate with their weight.

The US-China relationship can hardly be described as agreeable, progressive, or even productive. And yet people keep coming back to the idea of a G2 because the alternatives can seem so inefficient.

The G20 — with its unwieldy membership of irrelevant countries like Argentina and Italy — can barely tackle financial regulation, let alone climate change, failed states and nuclear proliferation. This explains the latest vogue phrasing from the commentator Ian Bremmer: the “G-Zero” world, in which there is no clear leader and no functioning system of global governance.

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French FM: No UN resolution on Syria a ‘scandal’

French FM: No UN resolution on Syria a ‘scandal’

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe on Sunday increased pressure on Russia to support a U.N. Security Council resolution against the Syrian regime, describing the lack of such a clear statement of condemnation as a “scandal.”

Juppe said during a visit to the Australian capital Canberra that Russia and France remained divided over Syria following talks between French and Russian foreign and defense ministers in Moscow last week.

Veto-wielding Russia wants Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government to halt its violence against protesters and to expedite reforms.

“We think the regime has lost its legitimacy, that it’s too late to implement a program of reform,” Juppe told reporters between meetings with Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard and Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd.

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Analysis: NATO needs to remove Assad rather than Gaddafi

Analysis: NATO needs to remove Assad rather than Gaddafi

“The West insists on the “brutal suppression of mass protests in Syria.” Why, then, it does not notice the harsh repression of Arab revolutions in Bahrain and Yemen? Isn’t this a case of double standards?”

“Neither the U.S. nor the EU want to strengthen Iran. After all, the fall of the existing regimes in these countries will be beneficial only for Tehran. All this, of course, raises certain questions. However, in contrast to Tunisia and Egypt, the regimes in Bahrain and Yemen in particular are surprisingly strong.”

“Does the West understand what kind of the opposition it is supporting and who is to replace Bashar Assad? Why do they not notice what the leaders of the Syrian “opposition” are like, for example, Sheikh Arura, whose motto is “Alawites to the grave, Christians to Beirut?”

“The problem is that not everyone in the West really understands the threat posed by these movements, and the degree of their extremism. Of course, the Islamists have not gone away, and they are preparing to use the fruits of the overthrow of the dictatorial regimes in their own way.

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Dutch PM Calls For EU Budget Tsar With Powers To Kick Countries Out Of Eurozone For Non-Compliance

Dutch PM Calls For EU Budget Tsar With Powers To Kick Countries Out Of Eurozone For Non-Compliance

The Dutch government wants to create an European institution that would have the powers to scrutinise as well as control budgets of eurozone countries, the centre –right Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and his Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager has argued in a joint article for the Financial Times.

The Dutch government has called for an “EU Budgetary Commissioner” who would have sweeping powers as part of closer cooperation among eurozone members on economic and fiscal policies. This new office would have the powers to impose penalties on those countries that flout EU rules and in extreme circumstances would have the authority to evict member states from the single currency.

Under proposals published by Mr. Rutte and his government, eurozone countries would be required to present their budgets to the “EU Budgetary Commissioner” before they are presented to the national Parliament. The Commissioner would have the right to veto measures that would lead to the country flouting EU deficit and other fiscal rules.

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Blowback in Somalia

Blowback in Somalia

The notorious Somali paramilitary warlord who goes by the nom de guerre Indha Adde, or White Eyes, walks alongside trenches on the outskirts of Mogadishu’s Bakara Market once occupied by fighters from the Shabab, the Islamic militant group that has pledged allegiance to Al Qaeda. In one of the trenches, the foot of a corpse pokes out from a makeshift grave consisting of some sand dumped loosely over the body. One of Indha Adde’s militiamen says the body is that of a foreigner who fought alongside the Shabab. “We bury their dead, and we also capture them alive,” says Indha Adde in a low, raspy voice. “We take care of them if they are Somali, but if we capture a foreigner we execute them so that others will see we have no mercy.”

Despite such thug talk, Indha Adde is not simply a warlord, at least not officially, anymore. Nowadays, he is addressed as Gen. Yusuf Mohamed Siad, and he wears a Somali military uniform, complete with red beret and three stars on his shoulder. His weapons and his newfound legitimacy were bestowed upon him by the US-sponsored African Union force, known as AMISOM, that currently occupies large swaths of Mogadishu.

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Tony Blair calls for regime change in Iran and Syria

Tony Blair calls for regime change in Iran and Syria

Tony Blair calls for regime change in Iran and Syria as he blames Tehran for prolonging the conflict in Iraq after the 2003 invasion.

In an interview to mark the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, the former prime minister warns that the Middle East would be “very, very badly” destabilised if Iran acquired nuclear weapons.

Blair, who is the Middle East peace envoy, tells the Times: “Regime change in Tehran would immediately make me significantly more optimistic about the whole of the region. If Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons capability it would destabilise the region very, very badly.

“They continue to support groups that are engaged with terrorism and the forces of reaction. In Iraq one of the main problems has been the continued intervention of Iran and likewise in Afghanistan.”

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An EU military HQ would undermine Nato

An EU military HQ would undermine Nato

As the euro crisis unfolds, those pushing for EU fiscal and economic government have now seen another opportunity to take forward the process of European integration using the Lisbon Treaty’s “permanent structured co-operation” to fast-track EU defence policy.

You cannot get closer to the bone of national sovereignty than our armed forces.

We have always said that any attempt to develop an autonomous EU defence policy would only be at the cost of the Nato alliance and the sovereign integrity of our nation.

Since the St Malo agreement of 1998 I have led the opposition to EU meddling in defence. This is a duplicative, divisive and dangerous distraction at a time when military resources are overstretched and we need to focus on meeting real security threats. EU defence policy is primarily an instrument of European political integration and brings no additional military capabilities to the table.

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The Patriot Act: The Very Definition of Mission Creep

The Patriot Act: The Very Definition of Mission Creep

The authors of the Patriot Act always intended that its provisions would be permanent. The politically expedient thing to do would have been to include a sunset provision, to acknowledge a temporary moment of crisis that required special measures for prosecutors to pursue terrorists. But the lawyers wanted no sunsets; some of them had been working Al Qaeda cases since the first World Trade Center bombing and imagined a long-term struggle that could last a generation. “I said, ‘Don’t think of this as an emergency measure,’ ” Viet Dinh [P1] recalled on July 20. At the time, Dinh was an assistant attorney general under John Ashcroft and was tasked on the morning of September 12 with writing a bill to fix whatever laws might impede investigation. The scholarship provided little guidance for how to make terror investigations easier, so Dinh sent an e-mail to the nation’s U.S. attorneys and FBI agents, asking for ideas. G-men are not constitutional lawyers, and excesses were rife: Someone wanted to send neighborhood watches in search of sordid types. The attorneys at Justice made piles, winnowing as they went: “Crazy Ideas,” “Quarter-Baked,” “Half-Baked.”

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Drones Evolve Into Weapon in Age of Terror

Drones Evolve Into Weapon in Age of Terror

“CIA has never looked more like its direct ancestor, the OSS, than it does right now,” said former CIA Director Michael Hayden. “It is as intensely operational as it’s ever been.”

The CIA, which doesn’t formally acknowledge the covert program, has killed about 2,000 militants with drones, U.S. officials say, most in the past two years as President Barack Obama’s national security team aggressively expanded the program.

In 2010, the number of drone strikes more than doubled, to 114, and this year, drone campaigns are expanding. The CIA now plans flights in Yemen, and the military is using drones to kill militants in Somalia.

“The United States has been fighting al Qaeda for more than a decade now, so it’s only logical that counterterrorism would be a top objective for the CIA,” said agency spokeswoman Marie Harf. “When the country goes to war, its intelligence agencies do, too. That’s always been true, from the days of the OSS in World War II until now.”

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Think Tank Diplomacy

Think Tank Diplomacy

A few weeks ago, I filed a story announcing the launch of the Pacific Partners Initiative (PPI) by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). PPI is the first Washington based policy and think thank forum dedicated to providing a sustained high-level policy focus on Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific Island Countries. It also incorporates trilateral ‘Track II’ dialogue as a mechanism for addressing regional security issues.

While meeting with US Ambassador (Ret.) John W. McDonald, chairman and CEO of the Institute for Multi-Track Diplomacy, to talk about his organization’s peace-building efforts in India-Pakistan, I also had an opportunity to briefly discuss PPI.

An expert on multi-track diplomacy, McDonald is one of the few diplomats in D.C. who can claim decades of expertise in Track II diplomacy and is therefore a key resource on such topics. According to him, Track II diplomacy initiatives such as PPI will be increasingly important to the maintenance of peace and stability in Asia-Pacific – despite the fact that ‘governments rarely recognize the value of non-governmental actors in diplomacy.’

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Azerbaijan may resume war without great powers’ consent – Armenian ex-president’s advisor

Azerbaijan may resume war without great powers’ consent – Armenian ex-president’s advisor

Azerbaijan may resume hostilities without the great powers’ consent, Zhirair Liparityan, the chief advisor to Armenia’s first president Levon Ter-Petrosyan, told Turan.

“For superpowers to exist, other states must exist. On the other hand, some states consider not only great states, but also small ones and are dependent on them.

“Very many historical events happened due to such small states,” Liparityan said. Azerbaijan, which is not a superpower, may be negotiating with the US and Russia to resume hostilities against Armenia.

“Given the stalemate, Azerbaijan may decide that war has no alternative,” Liparityan said. He noted that the superpowers will not object to its decision.

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Israel simulates rocket attack on nuke site

Israel simulates rocket attack on nuke site

Israel’s Home Front Command and the Israel Atomic Energy Commission(AEC) on Tuesday held a day- long drill simulating a missile attack by the country’s foes against the Dimonanuclear reactor in the eastern Negev desert.

Hundreds of Israel Defense Forces (IDF) personnel, firefighters, police, national emergency response first-responders, and Magen David Adom medical teams took part in the 14-hour exercise, the IDF Spokesman’sOffice told Xinhua.

“Fernando,” as the drill was dubbed, is the second time such measures have been taken since 2004. Theexercise was named for a nuclear meltdown in 1959 in the San Fernando Valley near Los Angeles, California.

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Former German leader calls for “United States of Europe”

Former German leader calls for “United States of Europe”

Former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder on Sunday called for the creation of a “United States of Europe,” saying the bloc needed a common government to avoid future economic crises.

Schroeder, a Social Democrat who ran the country from 1998 to 2005, said in an interview with Der Spiegel that European Union leaders were wrong to expect the euro to drive the bloc on its own.

“The current crisis makes it relentlessly clear that we cannot have a common currency zone without a common fiscal, economic and social policy,” Schroeder said.

He added: “We will have to give up national sovereignty.”

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China offered Gadhafi huge stockpiles of arms: Libyan memos

China offered Gadhafi huge stockpiles of arms: Libyan memos

The documents suggest that Beijing and other governments may have played a double game in the Libyan war, claiming neutrality but covertly helping the dictator. The papers do not confirm whether any military assistance was delivered, but senior leaders of the new transitional government in Tripoli say the documents reinforce their suspicions about the recent actions of China, Algeria and South Africa. Those countries may now suffer a disadvantage as Libya’s new rulers divide the spoils from their vast energy resources, and select foreign firms for the country’s reconstruction.

Omar Hariri, chief of the transitional council’s military committee, reviewed the documents and concluded that they explain the presence of brand-new weapons his men encountered on the battlefield. He expressed outrage that the Chinese were negotiating an arms deal even while his forces suffered heavy casualties in the slow grind toward Tripoli.

“I’m almost certain that these guns arrived and were used against our people,” Mr. Hariri said.

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Turkey Cuts Military Ties with Israel, Expels Ambassador

Turkey Cuts Military Ties with Israel, Expels Ambassador

Turkey moved Sept. 2 to cut all military ties with Israel and also announced it will expel the Israeli ambassador in Ankara next week after part of a United Nations report on last year’s deadly Israeli attack on a Turkish-led flotilla bound for Gaza was leaked to the press.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu also announced that diplomatic relations are being reduced to the level of second secretaries, and all higher-degree diplomats from both nations would return home next week.

Many of the aspects of the U.N. report, which was leaked to The New York Times, are unacceptable, he said.
The leaked copy of the report says Israeli forces did use excessive force when they intercepted the Turkish-led flotilla trying to break Israel’s blockade of Gaza. But the report also concludes that Israel’s naval blockade of Gaza is legal – a move that has angered Turkey.

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CIA shifts focus to killing targets

CIA shifts focus to killing targets

Critics, including some in the U.S. intelligence community, contend that the CIA’s embrace of “kinetic” operations, as they are known, has diverted the agency from its traditional espionage mission and undermined its ability to make sense of global developments such as the Arab Spring.

Human rights groups go further, saying the CIA now functions as a military force beyond the accountability that the United States has historically demanded of its armed services. The CIA doesn’t officially acknowledge the drone program, let alone provide public explanation about who shoots and who dies, and by what rules.

“We’re seeing the CIA turn into more of a paramilitary organization without the oversight and accountability that we traditionally expect of the military,” said Hina Shamsi, the director of the National Security Project of the American Civil Liberties Union.

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Russia and China Recognise Libyan Rebels Ahead of International Summit

Russia and China Recognise Libyan Rebels Ahead of International Summit

While China was initially hesitant to celebrate the apparent defeat of Gaddafi’s regime in Libya, the government is now officially recognizing the rebel forces as the future leaders of the country by attending an international summit aimed at preparing Libya for life after Gaddafi. From the Australian:

French President Nicolas Sarkozy invited China to send a delegate to the Paris meeting when he made a stopover in Beijing a week ago.

China has been reluctant to join the Western nations in Libya, but Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu said Vice-Foreign Minister Zhai Jun would attend.

“China supports efforts by relevant parties in restoring stability and promoting the smooth transition of power in Libya, and is willing to join the international community and play an active role in rebuilding Libya in the future,” Mr Ma said.

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Water Is the New Weapon in Beijing’s Armoury

Water Is the New Weapon in Beijing’s Armoury

While China’s fondness for epic hydro-engineering projects has enormous repercussions within its own borders, the consequences are further complicated when dams are built upstream of other countries.Hundreds of millions of people from Afghanistan to Vietnam depend on rivers originating within the PRC, a reality to which Chinese policy makes little concession, and one which raises the possibility of aggressive interference in river flows in the future. From Brahma Chellaney in the Financial Times:

Getting this pre-eminent riparian power to accept water-sharing arrangements or other co-operative institutional mechanisms has proved unsuccessful so far in any basin. Instead, the construction of upstream dams on international rivers such as the Mekong, Brahmaputra or Amur shows China is increasingly bent on unilateral actions, impervious to the concerns of downstream nations ….

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CIA recruits 1,500 from Mazar-e-Sharif to fight in Libya

CIA recruits 1,500 from Mazar-e-Sharif to fight in Libya

The Central Intelligence Agency of the United States recruited over 1,500 men from Mazar-e-Sharif for fighting against the Qaddafi forces in Libya.

Sources told TheNation: “Most of the men have been recruited from Afghanistan. They are Uzbeks, Persians and Hazaras. According to the footage, these men attired in Uzbek-style of shalwar and Hazara-Uzbek Kurta were found fighting in Libyan cities.”

When Al-Jazeera reporter pointed it he was disallowed by the ‘rebels ‘to capture images.

Sources in Quetta said: “Some Uzbeks and Hazaras from Afghanistan were arrested in Balochistan for illegally traveling into Pakistan en route to Libya through Iran. Aljazeera’s report gave credence to this story. More than 60 Afghans, mainly children and teenagers, have been found dead after suffocating inside a shipping container in southwestern Pakistan in an apparent human smuggling attempt.

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Gaza: Israeli Military Arming, Training Vigilantes

Gaza: Israeli Military Arming, Training Vigilantes

In what can be interpreted as a clear admission that Israeli state institutions are not up to the task, the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) has admitted it is training settlers in occupied Palestinian territory, and arming them with stun grenades, tear gas, and other weaponry “to handle any unrest which breaks out during the UN campaign.” (1)

Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported the information is contained in a military document in their possession. (2)

The training of civilian vigilantes by the Israeli state to deal with proposed peaceful Palestinian protests within their own territory is not only an excess of florid paranoia, but an unmistakable sign to the international community that the Israeli government has no faith in the state’s organs’ ability to maintain the peace – either within its own territory, or that which it illegally occupies.

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Medvedev Names Ex-KGB Officer as St. Petersburg Governor

Medvedev Names Ex-KGB Officer as St. Petersburg Governor

President Dmitry Medvedev named former KGB officer Georgy Poltavchenko as governor of St. Petersburg on Tuesday.

“This is a major responsibility that you should carry out with honor,” Medvedev told Poltavchenko at his residence in Sochi.

The new governor’s candidacy must be approved by the St. Petersburg parliament, which is dominated by the ruling United Russia party.

Poltavchenko, 58, replaces Valentina Matviyenko, the outgoing governor, who will lead the Federation Council. A St. Petersburg native and presidential envoy for the Central Federal District that includes Moscow, Poltavchenko worked for the KGB and Federal Security Service between 1979 and 1992. He was appointed acting governor on Aug. 22.

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Kremlin’s Fear of China Drives Its Foreign Policy

Kremlin’s Fear of China Drives Its Foreign Policy

Russia perceives China as being highly unpredictable and worries about Beijing’s technological dominance, growing military strength and demographic and economic expansion into Siberia, which is sparsely populated but resource-rich.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin’s saber-rattling in the Far East, while purportedly aimed at protecting the Kuril Islands from a weak Japan, is Moscow’s subtle signal to Beijing.

The real threat for Russia is China’s capabilities. Beijing’s ability to expand its nuclear arsenal is worrisome because at parity levels, Russia’s nuclear deterrent loses credibility in relation to China’s greater counterstrike potential. Thus, fear, which is the dominant factor behind the Kremlin’s policy of maintaining nuclear superiority over China, hinders global efforts to decrease Russia’s nuclear arsenal — in particular, its tactical weapons.

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Is China’s nuclear power risky?

Is China’s nuclear power risky?

By settling for cheap technology, China has “vastly increased” the risk of a nuclear accident, claim diplomatic cables from the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, The Guardian newspaper reports.

The U.S. Embassy cables from August 2008, released by WikiLeaks, warned that China’s choice of technology would be a century old by the time dozens of China’s reactors come to the end of their lifespan.

In one of the August 2008 cables, the embassy suggested “continuous high-level advocacy” on behalf of Westinghouse to push its AP-1000 reactor, noting that China was in the process of building 50-60 new nuclear plants by 2020, the newspaper reports. At that time, China was keen on building its CPR-1000 reactors, based on old Westinghouse technology.

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Our World: The perils of a remilitarized Sinai

Our World: The perils of a remilitarized Sinai

Will the Egyptian military be permitted to remilitarize the Sinai? Since Palestinian and Egyptian terrorists crossed into Israel from Sinai on August 18 and murdered eight Israelis this has been a central issue under discussion at senior echelons of the government and the IDF.

Under the terms of the Egypt-Israel peace treaty, Egypt is prohibited from deploying military forces in the Sinai. Israel must approve any Egyptian military mobilization in the area. Today, Egypt is asking to permanently deploy its forces in the Sinai. Such a move requires an amendment to the treaty.

Supported by the Obama administration, the Egyptians say they need to deploy forces in the Sinai in order to rein in and defeat the jihadist forces now running rampant throughout the peninsula. Aside from attacking Israel, these jihadists have openly challenged Egyptian governmental control over the territory.

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Libyan rebels accused of targeting and killing innocent black workers

Libyan rebels accused of targeting and killing innocent black workers

”The NTC [National Transitional Council] seems to confuse black people with mercenaries,” the African Union chairman, Jean Ping, said.

He said this could be a reason the African Union has not recognised opposition forces as Libya’s interim government. One third of the population is black, he said. ”They are killing people, normal workers, mistreating them.”

Mr Ping speculated that the killings could be the work of ”looters or uncontrolled forces”.

”But then the [new] government should say something, condemn this,” he said.

”We want to see a signal that the African workers … [will] be evacuated.”

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‘Smart’ CCTV could track rioters

‘Smart’ CCTV could track rioters

CCTV that can automatically monitor criminal behaviour and track suspects is being developed by UK scientists.

Researchers at Kingston University have created a system that uses artificial intelligence to recognise specific types of behaviour, such as someone holding a gun.

The technology is capable of following a person across multiple cameras.

Privacy campaigners warned that it might be used to target groups such as political protesters.

However, the developers insisted that their invention would allow police to focus on law breakers and erase images of innocent civilians.

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CIA’s Bay of Pigs foreign policy laid bare

CIA’s Bay of Pigs foreign policy laid bare

A once-secret CIA history of the Bay of Pigs invasion lays out in unvarnished detail how the American spy agency came to the rescue of and cut deals with authoritarian governments in Central America, largely to hide the U.S. role in organizing and controlling the hapless Cuban exile invasion force.

CIA pilots and Cuban foot soldiers then help suppress a Guatemalan Army coup attempt that threatened their foothold in the country. Gen. Anastasio Somoza hits up the CIA for a $10 million payoff, development loans, as the price of letting the Americans launch the Cuban exile invasion from Nicaragua.

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China’s plan for secret detentions alarms rights activists

China’s plan for secret detentions alarms rights activists

A proposed change in the Chinese criminal code that would allow authorities to detain suspects for up to six months in a secret location is a dangerous step backward for the country, activists charged Saturday.

The change would essentially enshrine what has become a common practice for silencing dissidents, many of whom have disappeared for months without formal charges being filed. Under the change, the suspects could be held without their family members or lawyers being notified.

The proposed change in the law was disclosed last week in the respected Legal Daily.

“This new amendment will legalize ‘forced disappearance,’” Beijing attorney Liu Xiaoyuan wrote on Twitter on Saturday. Liu was briefly detained around the same time as his friend and client Ai Weiwei, the dissident artist whose arrest this spring made international headlines.

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Ankara at a point of no return on Syria?

Ankara at a point of no return on Syria?

This week, among all the other developments going on around the world, Ben Rhodes, the deputy national security adviser at the White House, gave an important interview in which he laid down two “core principals” for the United States in terms of the preferred model for any future military interventions. While talking to Foreign Policy Magazine, Rhodes said that in order for the U.S. to intervene militarily, the drive first had to come from an indigenous political movement as it is “far more legitimate and effective [in allowing] regime change to be pursued.”

“Secondly,” he said, “we put an emphasis on burden sharing, so that the U.S. won’t be bearing the brunt of the burden” and so that there won’t just be international support for the effort, but also meaningful international contribution.

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