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Economy, GeoPolitics May 20, 2013

Rumors Spark Bank Run, Break-Ins in Brazil

Rumors that Brazil’s social security fund called Bolsa Familia was to be cancelled led thousands of people to rush to withdraw money from a Brazilian bank over the weekend.

Customers lined up at ATMs at dozens of bank branches of Caixa Economica Federal, a government-owned bank, which pays the social security subsidy on Saturday and Sunday. “The bank branches themselves aren’t open on Saturdays. What happened is that once the rumor gained momentum, people flocked down to their local branches to try to withdraw money from the ATMs,” Rafael Carregal, a journalist at Brazil’s main TV network Globo told CNBC.

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Policy, Regime Change May 20, 2013

NATO Expansion And Russia: You’re Not Paranoid If They Really Are Out To Get You

One of the things that I find most mystifying about Western coverage of Russia is the tendency to treat obvious facts as wild-eyed conspiracy theories. So you have people saying “Putin and his lot are crazy, they think we’re trying to start a color revolution! Where on earth did they get that idea?” Meanwhile, in the plain light of day, the Obama administration makes a push to use tens of millions of taxpayer dollars to support various anti-regime civil society groups. The, unstated, but nonetheless obvious, goal of using that money is to change Russia’s government.

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Economy, GeoPolitics, Resources May 20, 2013

Strife hangs over China billions in Myanmar

China is spending billions to develop Kyaukpyu as its international gateway in Myanmar, but the development threatens to be derailed by communal violence. “Kyaukpyu is the new gateway to China and Asean. Kyaukpyu is the ocean exit for China. Kyaukpyu offers the shortest trade route from India to China. The port city in Rakhine state, on the northwest coast of Myanmar, saves ships 5,000 kilometres of sailing through the Straits of Malacca to China. Kyaukpyu lies next to the offshore Shwe gas fields in the Bay of Bengal, the Southeast Asian country’s biggest gas project.

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Development, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Intelligentsia, Military Buildup May 20, 2013

Iran fears growing Israel-Azerbaijan cooperation

Israel’s activity and presence in Azerbaijan on the northern border of Iran is aimed at exerting pressure on Iran and conducting security and intelligence activity against it and at getting prepared for the delusion of bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities….Because of its strategic location, Azerbaijan offers Israel a springboard for espionage, military activity, and assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists. The paper also refers to the military contracts signed between the two states, amounting to “$1.6 billion in defensive missiles and UAVs.”

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Uprising May 20, 2013

Algeria: Middle East’s Next Revolt If Soccer Is A Barometer – Analysis

Algeria is competing to be the next Arab nation to witness a popular revolt. That is assuming soccer is a barometer of rising discontent in a region experiencing a wave of mass protests that have already toppled the leaders of Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen and sparked civil war in Syria.

In fact, there is increasingly little doubt that soccer, a historic nucleus of protest in Algeria, is signaling that popular discontent could again spill into the streets of Algiers and other major cities.

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Analysis, Economy, GeoPolitics May 18, 2013

Strategic Goals: Russian plans for the BRICS to dismantle the dollar system

Objectives are clear. In the section entitled “Strategic Goals”, the first item on the agenda of the BRICS should reform the global financial system, so as to make it “fairer, more stable, and more efficient.” In subsequent chapters, clearly states that this “reform” is actually dismantling the dollar system.

It is worth noting that the space allotted to this task in the list of priorities of the BRICS, clearly indicates its importance. According to the order of priority, the deprivation of the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency is more important than the “prevention of violation of sovereignty” (ie “the Syrian problem”) or “enhanced economic cooperation.”

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GeoPolitics, Policy, Risks May 18, 2013

Okinawans form group to study independence from Japan

Could Okinawa become an independent state? Five Okinawans formed a group to study the possibility on May 15, the 41st anniversary of the island prefecture’s reversion to Japanese sovereignty.

While only a minority of Okinawans are calling for independence, a growing distrust among islanders toward those on the mainland, who have left the southern prefecture burdened with U.S military bases, could lead to more empathy for the idea. Okinawa Prefecture accounts for only 0.6 percent of Japan’s landmass, but it hosts 74 percent of all U.S. military bases in the country.

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Conflict, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military May 18, 2013

Benghazi Gate Fallout: US preparing for a ground assault on Libya

“CNN” quoted security sources that said the US developed several plans, including military action against the attackers on the U.S. consulate in the Libyan city of Benghazi in September last year.

The sources, who asked not to be identified, said U.S. forces made ​​plans aimed at the arrest of the attackers on the U.S. consulate, through a variety of actions, including the transfer of U.S. ground forces into Libya to perform the operation.

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Analysis, Economy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics May 18, 2013

S&P says Cypriot deposit grab may set eurozone precedent

THE GRAB on bank deposits that accompanied Cyprus’ bailout could be repeated elsewhere in the eurozone, and the bloc’s banking union may not be strong enough when it is introduced, Standard & Poor’s said yesterday.

“We believe that the events in Cyprus highlight the increased reluctance of financially stronger eurozone countries to make their taxpayers’ funds available to recapitalise banks outside their home jurisdictions,” the credit ratings agency said in a report. “For this reason, although the key features of the Cypriot banking system are not shared by other eurozone countries, we consider that the bail-in may indeed create a precedent.”

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Analysis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military Buildup May 18, 2013

The BRIC countries are becoming the world’s new global navy

Offshore from Syria, Russia’s navy is conducting probably its largest naval deployment outside its own waters since the Soviet breakup. The Chinese navy is in another potential confrontation today with Japan in the East China Sea, and raising questions about where it is headed next.

But the BRIC nations as a whole—a force in the global economic conversation since the acronym was coined by Goldman Sachs to refer to the high-growth economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China—are becoming an increasing naval presence on the high seas.

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Economy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Resources May 18, 2013

Cold War politics hang over EU shale gas revolution

The shale gas revolution has taken its time to arrive in Europe. But after years of watching the US plunge head-first into natural gas exploration and of reaping the rewards, Europe’s politicians are now deciding whether to join in.

The first major battleground for European natural gas exploration is likely to be in eastern Europe, where the prospect of greater energy security from Russia is a big issue. It is also possible to detect Cold War overtones to the approach taken by the US oil and gas industry and its government.

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Analysis, Conflict, GeoPolitics, Powerplay May 17, 2013

Qatar Spends Billions in Syria for Influence, Pays $50,000 per Dissident

“Qatar has spent about three billion dollars in the past two years to support the opposition in Syria, which far exceeds what provided by any other government. However, the Saudi Arabia competes now in leading the bodies providing Syrian opposition with weapons,” the paper said. “The cost of the Qatari intervention in Syria, which is the latest effort of the oil-rich emirate to support an “Arab revolution,” only represents a very small part of the international investment of Qatar,” it added. “Qatar’s support for Islamist groups in the Arab countries puts it in confrontation with the other Gulf States and provokes competition with the Saudi Arabia,”

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Economy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Resources May 17, 2013

Oil & gas reserves add to existing tensions between Israel & Lebanon

The recent discovery of oil and gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean off the Israeli, Cypriot and Lebanese coasts is a great boost to the independence and self-sufficiency of these countries.

But the discoveries also add to existing tensions between Israel and Lebanon as both are claiming the oil and gas reserves as their own. In April, natural gas from the Israeli Tamar reserve began to flow from an offshore rig in the Mediterranean Sea into Israel, giving the country the chance to hone its energy security and freedom.

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GeoPolitics, Military Buildup, Powerplay May 17, 2013

Putin’s power play: Russia builds up missile systems, seeks to limit U.S. defenses

Russia is engaged in a major buildup of both nuclear and conventional missile defense systems at the same time Moscow is seeking legal limits on U.S. missile defenses, according to U.S. officials.

The Russian military is developing and deploying an array of new and modernized anti-missile interceptors that are part of a strategic doctrine that calls for defending against what Moscow believes to be an increasing threat posed by offensive ballistic missiles, said U.S. officials with access to intelligence reports.

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Economy, GeoPolitics, Resources May 16, 2013

Rare Earths, Oil, Gas, Other Commodities Up For Grabs As Arctic States Grants China, India, Japan, Other Select Nations ‘Observer Status’

It won’t be long before the essential raw minerals and commodities of the planet’s Far North such as rare earths, oil and gas get gobbled up by the industrialists.

On Wednesday, the Arctic Council granted China, India, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea and Singapore new Observer States status. Essentially, the six nations gained rightful entry to listen in on meetings of the council, as well as propose and finance policies. Observers, however, do not have powers related to decision making within the council.

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GeoPolitics, Military, Policy May 16, 2013

EU to step up security involvement in Somalia

The European Union is to move military training of Somali soldiers from Uganda to Mogadishu in a show of confidence in Somalia’s growing stability after two decades of turmoil, the EU special envoy to Somalia said on Wednesday.

The success of Amisom, made up mostly of Ugandan, Burundian and Kenyan soldiers, has encouraged Western countries to look beyond the scars left by the deaths of U.S. and U.N. soldiers during Somalia’s violent disintegration into civil war in the early 1990s, and increase their engagement. The EU’s training mission, separate from Amisom, has trained some 3,000 Somali soldiers and officers in Uganda since 2010.

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Diplomacy, GeoPolitics, Military Buildup, News May 16, 2013

Karzai to visit India; Afghans look for enhanced defence ties

Ahead of its President’s visit here from May 20, Afghanistan on Thursday said it was looking for enhanced defence cooperation with India, from where it was expecting supply of lethal and non-lethal military equipment.

The two sides will discuss a range of issues of mutual concern and interest and will discuss cooperation at a “critical time” for Afghanistan, which is witnessing the withdrawal of NATO combat troops, the envoy said.

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Conflict, GeoPolitics, Intelligentsia, Paramilitary May 15, 2013

CIS Security Services to track Syria mercenaries – FSB

The security services of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) member states will be closely monitoring the movement of mercenaries from CIS nations fighting in Syria, Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) head Alexander Bortnikov said on Wednesday.

According to the FSB, some 200 mercenaries from Russia, as well as from CIS member states and Europe, are fighting in Syria’s civil war. “They [mercenaries] pose a severe danger. It is highly important to track their movements following the end of hostilities,” the FSB chief said. The future fate of mercenaries active in Syria is of concern not only to the CIS special services, but European secret services as well, Bortnikov added.

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Resources, Territorial Dispute May 15, 2013

Yemen and Saudi Arabia Land Dispute: Sovereignty, Resources and Politics

While Yemen is undergoing drastic social, political and economic changes, Saudi Arabia, the region’ super-power is ever increasingly looking nervously as its southern border, fearing that its unruly neighbor’s crises might spill over onto its territories and thus undermine the security of the kingdom.

Saudi Arabia has now announced it will resume the construction of its border-fence barrier, which will run across the entire 1,800 Km of the Yemen-Saudi border demarkation line. This titan project aims essentially to cage out Yemen, preventing not only groups from infiltrating Saudi Arabia but also foiling any factions’ hopes to reignite a decades’ old border dispute with al-Saud.

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GeoPolitics, Military Buildup, Strategic Interests May 15, 2013

Intelligent hawk eyes to keep strict vigil over Indian Ocean region

India’s long-range maritime snooping and anti-submarine warfare capabilities will get a huge boost when the first of the eight contracted Poseidon-8I aircraft touches down at theArakkonam naval air station in Tamil Nadu on Wednesday.

Armed with deadly Harpoon Block-II missiles, MK-54 lightweight torpedoes, rockets and depth charges, these sensor and radar-packed aircraft will be the country’s “intelligent hawk eyes” over theIndian Ocean Region (IOR) that is increasingly getting militarized.

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GeoPolitics, Human Rights, Intelligentsia May 15, 2013

Call to rein in Australia’s natl. security powers in bid to soften terror tactics

THE federal government has unveiled plans to wind back the nation’s counter-terror laws and strip ASIO of its power to detain terror suspects without charge.

If implemented, the sweeping changes would abolish some offences, impose expanded judicial oversight on ASIO and repeal the criminal penalties for praising acts of terrorism. Those who are subject to control orders would be given access to mobile phones and the internet, could not be ordered to relocate and any curfew would be limited to 10 hours a day.

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Analysis, Development, GeoPolitics, Military Buildup May 14, 2013

India To Add Navy Bases, Expand Coastline Security Sensors

Addressing the top commanders of the Indian Navy on Tuesday, Defence Minister A.K. Antony announced that additional naval bases and air stations are required to extend the Navy’s reach.

“Antony said the construction of additional bases and naval air stations in Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep & Minicoy Islands is necessary to further extend our operational reach,” said a Defence Ministry statement. India is concerned about the growing Chinese maritime presence in the Indian Ocean, said an Indian Navy official.

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GeoPolitics, Rigging May 14, 2013

Irregularities in Pakistan elections: Over 100 % voting witnessed in 49 polling stations

Believe it or not but it is a fact that according to data from an independent elections observer group Free and Fair Election Network (FAFEN), over 100 per cent voting was witnessed in 49 polling stations in Pakistan in May 11 general elections, which were won by PML-N of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif.

“In 49 polling stations in the country, number of votes polled far exceeds the registered voters,” revealed the date released by FAFEN.

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Analysis, Conflict, GeoPolitics, Paramilitary May 14, 2013

Report: Hizbullah Fighters Advance to Syria-Jordan Border

Hizbullah fighters have been advancing swiftly into southern Syria and have reached the flashpoint southern town of Daraa near the border with Jordan, media reports said on Tuesday.

The source pointed out that Hizbullah fighters are not just groups backing the army regime but comprehensive fighting units that includes a full logistic team. It said that Hizbullah’s military leadership is organizing the transfer of the units and providing them with weapons.

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CyberOps, Economy, GeoPolitics, Intelligentsia, Policy May 13, 2013

Taxmen, police and spies look at bitcoin ‘threat’

Bitcoin has come onto the radar of the UK government, with officials gathering in London on Monday to discuss the security threats and tax concerns posed by the digital currency.

About 50 civil servants from HM Revenue and Customs, the Serious Organised Crime Agency, Home Office and GCHQ – the intelligence listening service – held a one-day conference which examined how bitcoin works and how criminals might seek to exploit the electronic cash system, which is currently unregulated by any financial authority.

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GeoPolitics, Intelligentsia May 13, 2013

India-Pakistan spy games take deadly turn

For someone who spent a lonely life in a Pakistani jail for more than two decades of his life, the public farewell that Sarabjit Singh received on his death was rather remarkable.

After news broke that Singh – held by Pakistan since 1990 for allegedly being a spy and plotting two bomb attacks that killed 14 – had succumbed to his injuries after being beaten by fellow inmates, anger and outrage swept India. Stung by the mood on the street, the government organised a state funeral for him – televised live after a visibly embarrassed Pakistan sent back his body.

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GeoPolitics, Military Buildup, Stratagem May 13, 2013

China flexes muscle in Indian Ocean, Indian Navy concerned

Increasing presence of the Chinese maritime forces in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and disciplinary issues in the force are expected to be discussed by the top Navy brass in their commanders’ conference starting on Tuesday.

The Navy has been concerned over the increasing presence of Chinese navy’s submarines and other warships in the IOR. In a recent report submitted to the defence ministry, the Integrated Defence Staff headquarters had informed the government quoting the data by American agencies that 22 encounters of Chinese submarines have taken place outside its territorial waters in the IOR.

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Economy, GeoPolitics, Resources May 13, 2013

Myanmar Pipelines to Benefit China

Two pipelines in the highlands of northeast Myanmar will soon begin pumping oil and gas into China, representing a major step in Beijing’s quest for energy security. The $2.5 billion pipeline project, scheduled for completion this month, is part of China’s land-based network of import routes that includes completed pipelines from Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Russia. In a region increasingly defined by its quest for energy, the new pipelines could help China tip the geopolitical landscape in its favor.

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Economy, GeoPolitics, Resources May 11, 2013

Turkish mediterranean energy hub plan faces hurdles

Israel’s rapprochement with onetime strategic ally Turkey is a vital element in Ankara’s drive to become the intercontinental east-west energy hub in the Mediterranean and many expect it to produce an energy alliance that will transform the region.

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Recep Erdogan has transformed his country’s economic prospects through a wide-ranging diplomatic drive aimed at restoring Turkish leadership in the region. He has long sought to transform Turkey, which has no energy resources of its own, into the unassailable central hub for transporting oil and gas from the eastern Mediterranean, the new hot zone, to Europe and maybe to Asia as well.

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Resources May 11, 2013

Arctic rising as economic, security hot spot

The icy Arctic is emerging as a global economic hot spot — and one that is becoming a security concern for the United States as world powers jockey to tap its vast energy resources and stake out unclaimed territories.

Diplomats from eight Arctic nations, including U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, will meet this week over how to protect the thawing region as its waterways increasingly open to commercial shipping traffic. U.S. officials estimate the Arctic holds 13 percent of the world’s undiscovered oil reserves and 30 percent of undiscovered gas deposits.

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GeoPolitics, Military, Resources May 11, 2013

Pushing Turkey Out of Med Energy: Cyprus-Greece agree to act in concert on defence matters

The Cyprus issue, energy security and the exploitation of hydrocarbon reserves in Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone were examined during a meeting in Athens between the Defence Ministers of Cyprus and Greece, Fotis Fotiou and Panos Panagiotopoulos, respectively.

Fotiou also discussed with Panagiotopoulos the situation in the wider south-eastern Mediterranean region and Turkish threats against Cyprus with regard to oil exploration.

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Economy, GeoPolitics, Rigging May 9, 2013

Euro Rises as Sweden Threatens to Join Currency Wars

The so-called currency wars progressed further in today’s session, as two new countries jumped on the bandwagon of selling or threatening to sell its own currency to unwind recent strength.

The comments from Sweden brought the Euro above 1.3100 against the US Dollar for the first time today, on speculation that another one of the Euro-zone’s neighbors may take up the Swiss model of buying the Euro with its own currency. EUR/USD may continue to see support near 1.3100 from a rising trend line from March.

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GeoPolitics, Intelligentsia, MISO/PSYOP May 9, 2013

US Eagle Eye: Deep Psychological Profile Established On Chinese Leaders

The CIA evaluates its Chinese counterparts by browsing through their works to gauge whether or not the Chinese military official displays any potential for insightful independent thought. In addition, software exists to distinguish the characters and ambitions of Chinese political figures.

The CIA and US Defense Department have compiled various psychological analyses on eminent political figures, including the late Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez and late North Korean president Kim Jong-il.

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Drill, GeoPolitics, Policy May 9, 2013

North Korea loses war of words as Bank of China halts funds

China is allowing anti-North Korean posts on its Internet sites. More importantly, the Bank of China is cutting ties with its key counterpart in Pyongyang, the North Korean capital. The apparent back-down can be papered over by propaganda in North Korea but not in the rest of the world, said Denny Roy, a Korean expert at the East West Center in Hawaii. “The sharpest signal may be from the Bank of China,” Roy said. China’s action was “a huge signal to North Korea,” said Scott Snyder, Korean expert with the Council on Foreign Relations.

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GeoPolitics, News, Territorial Dispute May 8, 2013

Chinese official mouthpiece claims rights to Okinawa

China’s top newspaper on Wednesday published a call for a “reconsideration” of Japan’s sovereignty over the island of Okinawa — home to major US bases — with the Asian powers already embroiled in a territorial row.

Major protest and outrage is likely from Japan for even a suggestion that China has any claim on Okinawa, the southernmost major island in the Japanese chain. “Unresolved problems relating to the Ryukyu Islands have reached the time for reconsideration,” wrote Zhang Haipeng and Li Guoqiang, citing post World War II declarations which require Japan to return Chinese territory.

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GeoPolitics, Intelligentsia May 7, 2013

Exposed: Shin Bet’s Secret Tactics

The “Jewish Department” of the Shin Bet, Israel’s internal security service, is known to recruit members of communities where covert illegal activity is suspected, to spy against their friends and neighbors. On Monday, an expose aired by the television show Uvda showed what the Shin Bet does when it cannot find people willing to cooperate with it.

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Conflict, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics May 7, 2013

U.S. democrat offers bill to arm Syrian opposition

A top U.S. Senate Democrat introduced a bill Monday that authorizes arming rebels in Syria, a step Washington has been weighing after President Barack Obama said the Damascus regime may have used chemical weapons.

Senator Robert Menendez, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, introduced the Syria Stabilization Act of 2013 that would give “increased authorization to provide lethal and non-lethal assistance to Syrian armed opposition.”

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GeoPolitics, Integration May 6, 2013

Turkey Sees Future in Asia With Joining SCO

Frustrated in its attempt to join the European Union, NATO-member Turkey last week signed up as a partner with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu described the signing of the SCO cooperation agreement as an historic day for his country, saying Turkey is the first NATO state to establish such a relationship with the SCO. “If we look from a Cold War perspective,” he said, “these may seem like mutually exclusive institutions. However, the Cold War has ended. Turkey won’t be a slave of the Cold War logic.”

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Analysis, Border Incursion, Conflict, GeoPolitics, Military May 6, 2013

India-China pullback: what happened behind the scenes

However, NDTV has learnt from sources that the stand-off was resolved partly due to the halting of construction of bunkers by Indian Army in the Chumar sector of southern Ladakh, which borders Himachal Pradesh.

The Indian Army was reportedly building seven bunkers in Chumar. The general area of Chumar is disputed and claimed by both sides. According to existing agreements, neither side is allowed to construct any permanent structure, more so if they are either offensive or defensive in nature. The assurance that has been reportedly given to China is that the constructions of the bunkers will be stopped for the time being.

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Development, Economy, GeoPolitics, Resources May 6, 2013

In America’s Backyard: China’s Rising Influence In Latin America

Over the past five years, Chinese businesses have been expanding their footprint in Latin America in a number of ways, beginning with enhanced trade to ensure a steady supply of bulk commodities such as oil, copper and soybeans. At this year’s Boao Forum for Asia, for the first time a Latin American sub-forum was created that included the participation of several heads of state from the region.

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Development, GeoPolitics, Military Buildup May 6, 2013

French forces withdraw from Tajikistan while Russian troops get comfortable

As the United States is drawing up plans to reduce and revamp its military presence in Central Asia and while Russia answers increasingly desperate calls for help in the region on military matters, France announced that it is beginning to dismantle its 11 year old military air presence in Tajikistan.

The force of about 230 service members, which is assigned to operational transportation is now in the process of leaving the country, but a small force of specialists will remain in Dushanbe until some time next year when they finish upgrading the runway at the Dushanbe Airport.

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GeoPolitics, Military, Protest May 5, 2013

Venezuela to tap military to fight crime

Venezuela’s top security official announced Sunday the government of President Nicolas Maduro will use the military to fight rampant violent crime, raising concerns among activists who warned the initiative could lead to human rights violations.

Justice Minister Miguel Rodriguez said personnel from the army, navy and air force will join National Guard troops as part of a forthcoming anti-crime initiative. Rodriguez did not provide details of the plan during an interview broadcast on state television, but he said tapping the military would give the government “potential that we can use to quickly reduce the crime rate.”

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Intelligentsia, News May 5, 2013

Russia’s intelligence services treats Estonia as Russian territory

The annual public accounting of Estonia’s security and intelligence agency, Kapo, details numerous activities with which Russia’s clandestine services gathers information and aids the implementation of the Kremlin’s foreign policy.

The Kapo report states that in the last few years the Russian FSB’s attempts at recruitment in Estonia have substantially grown. One can then assume that the focus of the FSB toward Estonia has intensified.g

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Analysis, Crisis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military May 5, 2013

Fear of new uncertainty hangs over Pakistani elections as military plots

After five years of relatively stable civilian rule, Pakistan seems ready to move ahead with another democratically elected government. But how will that administration behave at home and abroad?

Many longtime observers of Pakistani politics think that the new administration is most likely to be a coalition government of conservative political parties that enjoy the full support of the country’s all-powerful military establishment.

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Military May 5, 2013

NATO, The Existential Question

It is a profound problem, which may evolve into a true existential crisis. It is prompted by a question that organizations must sometimes confront: “What purpose do we serve?”

This is the question that is starting to be asked at the headquarters of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Meetings in Brussels without any real agenda, that lead to summits without decisions, the organization gets by actively trying to “redefine” itself. In reality, the end of the organization’s mission in Afghanistan in 2014, and its economic uncertainty due to the crisis that its European members are facing, puts it in a very difficult situation.

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Diplomacy, GeoPolitics, Powerplay May 5, 2013

Canada accuses Qatar of trying to buy UN agency

A bid by Qatar to relocate the United Nations’ civil aviation agency from Montreal to the tiny emirate has angered Canada, where politicians from all sides vowed Friday to band together to fight the proposed move.

The International Civil Aviation Organization, which sets international civil aviation standards, has been in Montreal since its founding in 1946. Qatar presented ICAO with an unsolicited offer last month to serve as the new permanent seat of the organization beginning in 2016.

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GeoPolitics, Military May 2, 2013

Clinton: NATO risks sliding into “military irrelevance”

A NATO alliance where member nations are hamstrung by political and economic difficulties may be a militarily weakened one, former Secy. of State Hillary Clinton warned Wednesday night.

“NATO is turning into a two-tiered alliance with shrinking percentage of members willing – and able – to pay the price and bear the burdens of common defense,” Clinton said. “Even in these difficult economic times, we cannot afford to let the greatest alliance in history slide into military irrelevance.” Clinton was speaking at an annual Atlantic Council awards dinner in Washington where both she and NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen were honored with Distinguished Leadership awards.

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GeoPolitics, Military, Public Relations May 2, 2013

Mission impossible? Africom goes on a media charm offensive

Africom has a presence in strategic points on the continent – Somalia, Djibouti, Liberia, Guinea, Uganda and Kenya – with the aim of building and sustaining democracy on the continent, the commanders assure us.

Back home, though, nobody seems to be buying what Africom is selling. If the South African government had a choice, US troops would not be camping anywhere in Africa. “We are opposed to militarisation of African politics through the establishment of military bases in Africa as part of the US’s Africom initiative,” reads an ANC paper presented by its international relations subcommittee at last December’s Mangaung congress.

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Military, News May 2, 2013

Japan PM’s ‘stealth’ constitution plan raises civil rights fears

Shinzo Abe makes no secret of wanting to revise Japan’s constitution, he is seeking to lower the hurdle for revising the constitution as a prelude to an historic change to its pacifist Article 9 – which, if strictly read, bans any military. That would be a symbolic shift, loosening restrictions on the military’s overseas activities, but would have limited impact on defence as the clause has already been stretched to allow Tokyo to build up armed forces that are now bigger than Britain’s. However, sweeping changes proposed by Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in a draft constitution would strike at the heart of the charter with an assault on basic civil rights.

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Analysis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military, Stratagem May 2, 2013

Syria, North Korea, China & Beyond: Does Army’s Future Lie In ‘Messy Middle’?

The future of ground forces, the study argues, lies somewhere in the “messy middle,” between long-range, high-tech air- and cyber-strikes against a hostile nation-state — the “AirSea Battle” vision of the Navy and Air Force — and low-profile, low-cost Special Operations and drone raids against scattered terrorists. The study, entitled Beyond the Last War, lays out a score of scenarios, half in the Pacific and half in the Middle East, where the problem will be too big for Special Ops alone but too deeply dug in to excise surgically from afar.

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Development, GeoPolitics, Military Buildup, News May 2, 2013

Interesting: 3AF 9th Annual International Conference on Missile Defense

Thank you so much for inviting me to join you today. At the State Department, I am responsible for overseeing a wide range of defense policy issues, including missile defense policy. In this capacity, it was my responsibility and privilege to negotiate the details of the Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) agreements with Poland, Romania, and Turkey that will enable the United States to implement the European Phased Adaptive Approach (or EPAA), the U.S. contribution to NATO missile defense.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military Buildup May 2, 2013

Indian Army lists counters to Chinese incursion

The army on Wednesday briefed the UPA government on the standoff with China in eastern Ladakh, giving it a slew of options to deal with the Chinese incursion, including a proposal to increase troop levels on the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

Indian soldiers have been eyeball-to-eyeball with the Chinese in the Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO) sector since April 15, after Chinese soldiers pitched tents 19km inside the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control. Army sources have maintained that it is possible to cut off the supply lines of Chinese troops, but some in the military establishment believe it could escalate tensions along the disputed border.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military Buildup May 2, 2013

Chinese incursion may snowball into Kargil-like situation: BJP

BJP today cautioned that the Chinese incursions into Indian territory in Ladakh could snowball into a “Kargil-like” situation and urged the government to take the issue seriously instead of treating it as merely a local issue. “The Prime Minister has said the incursions in Ladakh are a localised issue. To say so is wrong. After all, what had happened in Kargil?” BJP Vice-President Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi told reporters. Incidentally, NDA was in power when the Kargil conflict took place in 1999. The then government was taken by surprise when the incursions from Pakistan were detected. Naqvi said India should give up its “confused and contradictory” policy towards China and take some serious measures.

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Bioethics, GeoPolitics, Policy May 1, 2013

Burma proposes family planning regime to control Muslims

Phil Robertson, deputy Asia director of Human Rights Watch, said the recommendation that the population Muslims should be controlled in the long term was outrageous. “It’s quite chilling to start talking about limiting births of one particular group,” he said. “Will coercive measures get taken on the ground even if the union government says people can take this voluntarily?”

The report said concerns expressed by Buddhists in Rakhine state over the rising population of Muslims they see as illegal immigrants from Bangladesh had “undermined peaceful coexistence” between the two groups. It said the introduction of family planning education “would go some way to mitigating” the crisis.

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GeoPolitics, Strategic Interests April 30, 2013

Fiji choose Sri Lanka’s Aitken Spence to overhaul its port operations

Sri Lanka’s Aitken Spence PLC has been chosen by the Fijian government to overhaul the operation of the country’s two biggest ports, namely Suva and Lautoka, a media report said. Accordingly, the Aitken Spence has formed a Private Public Partnership agreement with Fiji Ports Corporation, where both parties will operate under the newly established joint venture Fiji Ports Terminal Limited. Aitken Spence is delighted to have forged this agreement with FPCL and the Government of the Republic of Fiji. We see immense opportunities for the private sector to spearhead Fiji’s vision to exploit its strategic geographic location and skilled human resources to become the premier regional maritime hub,

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Analysis, Crisis, Development, GeoPolitics April 30, 2013

Saxo Bank’s Lars Christensen: Political discontent will soon force the Eurozone’s inevitable break-up

A political rebellion is brewing, and many countries are close to breaking point. Beppe Grillo’s success in Italy was just the start – it could have been anyone standing with an anti-euro message. There’s a new anti-euro party in Germany gathering interest. And the anti-bailout True Finns in Finland are now the country’s third largest party. This will happen in every European country, and it’s all down to economic conditions. As long as you’re in the euro, you’ll be less and less competitive, and will get weaker and weaker against Germany.

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Analysis, Diplomacy, Economy, GeoPolitics, Stratagem April 29, 2013

Is China pivoting to the Middle East?

It is not a secret that in recent years, Beijing increased its political activities across several hot spots in the region. China is now one of the largest GCC countries trade partner, the largest exporter to the Middle East, the biggest importer of Iranian oil, and the largest player in the Iraqi oil game. Meanwhile, the GCC countries are eager to diversify their economy and foreign policy; subsequently they welcome the Chinese involvement and investments, but also view such presence as vital toward the creation of balance in international relations and energy markets. From the Arab perspective, there is little concern that China’s increasing status as a world power will constitute a security threat.

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GeoPolitics, Military Buildup, Strategic Interests April 29, 2013

Are UK forces reestablishing a strategic military presence in the Middle East?

Is Britain quietly re-establishing a permanent, strategic military presence in the Middle East, reversing a 1960s decision to withdraw UK forces from “east of Suez”? It is a question posed and addressed in a detailed report published on Monday by Whitehall think tank the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi).
“It may not yet be declared government policy,” says Rusi director Prof Michael Clarke, in the foreword. “But the UK appears to be approaching a decision point where a significant strategic reorientation of its defence and security towards the Gulf is both plausible and logical.” In practice this has already begun.

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Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military Buildup April 29, 2013

Balochistan to deploy Army during elections

The Balochistan government has decided to deploy army in all districts of the province during upcoming general elections. In a media interview Sunday, Secretary Interior Balochistan Akbar Hussain Durrani said army would be deployed in all 30 districts and 92 tehsils of the province to cope up with any untoward situation. He said a total of 70 thousand security personnel would be deployed, including 6000 from Army, 17000 from FC, 20,000 from Police, 17,000 from Levies, and 10,000 from Balochistan Constabulary.

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Economy, GeoPolitics, Integration April 28, 2013

Syria wants to join SCO and BRICS

The Syrian Information Minister Omran Ahed al-Zouabi said in a new statement at his meeting with the Deputy Speaker of the Federation Council, Ilyas Umakhanov, that Syria wants to become a member of BRICS (Brazil, India, China, Russia and South Africa) and of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in future.

Thus, Syria seeks to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as well as the membership in the emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, in short BRICS.

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Strategic Interests April 28, 2013

US seeks military presence in Maldives

The intriguing ‘leak’ of a draft Status of Forces Agreement [SOFA] between the United States and the Maldivian government has led to reluctant confirmation by both countries that they are indeed involved in discussion with each other to conclude such an agreement.

The draft agreement “incorporates the principal provisions and necessary authorisations for the temporary presence and activities of United States forces in the Republic of Maldives and, in the specific situations indicated herein, the presence and activities of United States contractors in the Republic of Maldives.”

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Analysis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military April 27, 2013

Energy Resources: China, India spar over Persian Gulf oil

China’s plan to build a second aircraft carrier and the Indian navy’s recent test-firing of a submarine-launched cruise missile should be ringing alarm bells in the Persian Gulf. Beijing and New Delhi are squaring off militarily in the Indian Ocean, the key energy artery from the Middle East and Africa to the Asian giants who need the oil and gas to fuel their expanding economies. At the same time, both states — but China in particular — have sharply boosted investment in Middle Eastern and African energy resources.

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GeoPolitics, Integration, News April 26, 2013

Turkey and Shanghai Cooperation Organization to be dialogue partners

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu Friday said that the memorandum of understanding signed with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) was a declaration of “common destiny” as well as the beginning of a long journey that the organization and Turkey would walk hand in hand. Turkey and SCO signed a memorandum of understanding in the Kazakh city of Almaty. Davutoglu, who was on a formal visit to Kazakhstan met with Secretary General of the SCO Dmitri Mezentsev, and signed the MoU in regards to the cooperation to be carried out between Turkey and the organization as “dialogue partners.”

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Analysis, Economy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics April 25, 2013

Europe Is Warming to Depositor Theft aka ‘Bail-In’

Depositor-preference rules exist in various forms in some EU states. The principle has also been enshrined in the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s rules since 1993. The value of EU-level depositor preference would partly be political. One lesson of the Cyprus affair was that policy makers and the public view depositors as a protected class of creditors, even if deposits are in fact risk-taking investments just like bonds and shares. Arguably, the current regime, which treats depositors as pari passu with senior bank bondholders, better reflects this economic reality.

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Military, News April 25, 2013

NATO looks for allies to station military contingent in Central Asia

Not much time is left until 2014, when the withdrawal of NATO anti-terrorism coalition troops from Afghanistan is expected to take place; however, it still remains unknown what type of military contingent will remain in Afghanistan and Central Asia thereafter and which countries of the region will be selected by the West for this purpose.

The fact that military contingents will remain not only in Afghanistan but also in the region is doubtless and is openly stated by officials. On Tuesday, the U.S. Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asia Robert Blake said the fact of the coalition’s presence in Central Asia is unequivocal, adding that it is still not decided on what other transit points and bases will be maintained in the region.

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GeoPolitics, Intelligentsia, News April 25, 2013

Zimbabwean Minister: CIA and BND trained our security services

STATE security minister Sydney Sekeramayi has said it was ironic that the West was leading calls for so-called security sector reforms having helped train the country’s defence and security establishment for more than 20 years. He said: “The British Military Advisory and Training Team left the country in 2001 after a 20-year stint with our army. They did not complain then, why now? “In the same vein, the President’s Department held various exchange programmes with other Western intelligence services among them CIA, BND (Germany intelligence) and M16.”

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GeoPolitics, Military, News April 25, 2013

Belarus may sell S-300 systems to Syria

Four S-300 systems, which will be shipped to Belarus by Russia, may be re-sold to pariah countries. This is how general Valer Fralou commented for the charter97.org web-site in the shipment of air-to-surface missile systems S-30 and the deployment of a Russian aviation base in Belarus. “Any military forces based in Belarus increase the potential of the Belarusian army. But this is only from the military point of view. One should not forget that Belarus is still a part of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and we have a union state with Russia”, – the general noted.

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Diplomacy, Economy, GeoPolitics, Strategic Interests April 24, 2013

Sri Lanka is emerging as South Asia’s Maritime Hub

A new shift in the maritime industry is taking place from north to south, with Sri Lanka emerging as the Indian Ocean’s new maritime hub, according to the organizer of the Sri Lanka Ports, Trade & Logistics Conference and Exhibition this year.

Seatrade Communications Ltd. announcing the event said the Government of Sri Lanka is rapidly positioning itself as a dynamic part of a ‘Southern Maritime zone’ following the rise of Singapore and Dubai.

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Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military Buildup April 23, 2013

Russia plans to deploy fighter jets, base in Belarus

Russia plans to deploy fighter jets in Belarus this year and eventually establish an air base in the former Soviet republic, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday. The moves would increase Russia’s military presence in Belarus, viewed by Moscow as a buffer between Russia and NATO, and could unnerve neighboring members of the Western alliance.”We have begun considering the plan to create a Russian air base with fighter jets here,” Shoigu said at a meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in the capital, Minsk.

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Analysis, Economy, GeoPolitics, Strategic Interests April 22, 2013

The Arctic Silk Road: As the U.S. Pivots East, Russia Pivots North

The Arctic Ocean is deceptively vast, spanning 5.4 million square miles. In comparison, Russia in its entirety spans 6.6 million square miles. While most of the Arctic Ocean remains inaccessible, the shrinking of permanent sea ice has roused global economic interest for two reasons. First, the Northern Sea Route runs from the Bering Strait to the Barents Sea, and condenses the traditional “Royal Road” route by about 2500 nautical miles (approximately 10 days’ travel). If viable, the opening of this route would radically alter the transport of goods from Asian industrial hubs to Western consumer markets.

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Economy, GeoPolitics, Policy, Stratagem April 22, 2013

Russia’s New Pivot: US foreign economic strategy to create new global order

Every American president since Harry Truman has announced a doctrine reflecting the priorities of each White House occupant. Globally, Obama intends to put the United States at the head of two giant economic blocks – the Transatlantic and Trans-Pacific Partnerships. This should ensure Washington’s leadership in a polycentric system of international relations.

If the TTP becomes a reality, the U.S. will account for three-fourths of the partnership’s combined GDP. This will ensure American dominance within the new economic alliance. At the same time, the TTP is an alternative to the ASEAN+3 arrangement promoted by Beijing .

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Analysis, Development, GeoPolitics, Strategic Interests April 21, 2013

Geostrategic Developments: US preoccupation with Sri Lanka

US preoccupation with Sri Lanka’s internal affairs is a cause for concern. Every incident has prompted a comment from the US. If the office of a newspaper is attacked, it is an attack on the independence of the media despite the fact that any number of possibilities not connected with media freedom exists for such attacks.

The compelling reason for US preoccupation with Sri Lanka is attributed to Sri Lanka’s extended engagement with China. The need to counter or balance China’s engagement in Sri Lanka has been recognized by the US and India. While India’s concern has both national and geostrategic ramifications, to the US it is primarily geostrategic.

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Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military Buildup April 21, 2013

Is China Changing Its Position on Nuclear Weapons?

INTERPRETING any country’s pronouncements about its nuclear weapons can be a study in fine distinctions, but occasionally a state says — or fails to say — something in a clear break from the past. A Chinese white paper on defense, released on Tuesday, falls into this category and now demands our attention, because it omits a promise that China will never use nuclear weapons first. That explicit pledge had been the cornerstone of Beijing’s stated nuclear policy for the last half-century. The white paper, however, introduces ambiguity. It endorses the use of nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack but does not rule out other uses.

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Analysis, Economy, GeoPolitics April 19, 2013

Zbigniew Brzezinski: EU-US trade pact can halt Western decline

US academic and former statesman, Zbigniew Brzezinski, has said Western democracies need to create a trans-Atlantic free trade area to remain relevant in world affairs. The 85-year-old, who was a US national security advisor at the height of the Cold War, spoke at the Globsec conference in Bratislava on Thursday (18 April) to an audience of central European VIPs. But he said Europe failed to fulfil its promise, while the US undid itself by invading Iraq. “Europe’s main problem is that today’s European Union is a Europe more of banks than of people, more of commercial convenience than an emotional commitment of the European peoples,” he said.

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Analysis, Conflict, Economy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Policy April 19, 2013

G20 Encourages an Intellectual Currency War

This has certainly not been a dull week in capital markets. The intraday investor has been exposed to just about everything. As of Friday, we have a commodity market that is telling the investor that global growth is slowing. A U.S. equity market, financed by cheap money, continues to signal that the American consumer is somewhat in the driving seat when it comes to stock prices. And finally, the European sovereign market appears to be convinced that domestic Japan is about to embark on a global shopping spree.

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Analysis, Censorship, GeoPolitics April 19, 2013

EU Covertly Spending Millions to Censor Media

Angered by the British media’s coverage of Brussels, the European Commission says it wants to be a “moral compass” against press misconduct, seeking new national and Europe-wide regulatory powers over journalists.

The EU has spent £2.3 million on the previously unpublicised “Mediadem” project to “reclaim a free and independent media”. In a “policy brief” co-authored by its lead British researcher, Rachael Craufurd Smith, Mediadem says it is “simplistic” to “see state influence [over the press] as inherently stifling”. Dr Craufurd Smith, an Edinburgh University academic, said that it was also “simplistic” to believe that “market-driven media” were now “free and independent”.

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Conflict, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military April 18, 2013

US warship in Singapore gives punch to Asian ‘pivot’

A United States warship designed to fight in coastal areas arrived on Thursday in Singapore for its Southeast Asian deployment, underlining President Barack Obama’s new strategic focus on Asia.

The deployment of the USS Freedom comes at a time of heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula and as China publicly flexes its naval muscle in the South China Sea, where it has competing territorial claims with some Southeast Asian states. US Navy officials said the Freedom, a littoral combat ship, sailed into Changi Naval Base at around 11 a.m. in Singapore, a long-standing US ally that assists in logistics and exercises for forces in Southeast Asia.

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Economy, GeoPolitics, Resources April 18, 2013

Turkey may have secretly sign oil deal with Iraqi Kurdistan, defying Baghdad

The Kurdish government will sell oil and gas directly to Turkey in a deal that so far has bypassed the Iraqi government in Baghdad, which has warned the Kurds not to sign separate energy accords. Turkey may also take the Kurdish government’s stake in concessions operated by Exxon Mobil Corp. on the enclave’s border with the rest of Iraq, one of the people said.

“Large-scale oil exports would change the economic position of Kurdistan,” said Robin Mills, head of consulting at Dubai-based Manaar Energy Consulting and Project Management. “If this deal goes through, it’s an aggressive move by Turkey that really means busting relations with Baghdad.”

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Analysis, Economy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Strategic Interests April 18, 2013

Evolving strategic competition in the Indian Ocean

The Indian ocean once regarded as a ‘neglected ocean’ has, today, become the hub of political, strategic and economic activities because of the presence of conventional and nuclear vessels of the major powers in the area and because of its own economic and strategic significance. The ocean contains several important minerals: 80.7% of world extraction of gold, 56.6 % of Tin, 28.5 % of manganese, 25.2 % nickel and 77.3% natural rubber. Highest tonnage of the world goods, 65% of world oil, and 35% of the gas, located in the littoral states, passes through it. The region today is an arena of contemporary geopolitics.

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Analysis, Crisis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, History, Risks April 17, 2013

De Borchgrave: Egypt Could Become the Next Iran

The only democracy Egypt has known in 5,000 years of recorded history lasted six years — from 1946, when the World War II British protectorate came to an end, until 1952 when Col. Gamal Abdel Nasser and his Free Officers movement dethroned and exiled King Farouk. Nasser’s coup was inspired by Egypt’s defeat in the first Arab-Israeli war of 1948. No more than 100 colonels, majors and captains were involved, including Anwar Sadat, who succeeded Nasser upon his death in 1970. Officially, Nasser and his Free Officers said they had taken over to wipe out corruption among their generals who, they charged, had led Egypt to its first defeat by Israel in 1948.

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Economy, GeoPolitics April 17, 2013

Hungary to pay EU fines via new tax on own citizens

Hungarian authorities will pass on the cost of EU fines through a tax on its own citizens whenever it breaches EU law. Giving details of the new Hungarian initiative, EU justice commissioner for justice Vivian Reding told euro-deputies at the Strasbourg plenary session on Wednesday (17 April) that: “in practice citizens would be penalised twice: once for not having had their rights under EU law upheld and a second time for having to pay for this.” The so-called ad hoc tax was introduced into Hungary’s latest constitutional reform in March, its fourth in the past 15 months.

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Policy, SuperClass April 17, 2013

Russia’s Civil Society Crackdown Should Raise Concerns

One week ago, Russian journalist Mikhail Beketov died from heart failure while choking on a piece of food during lunch. He was badly traumatized five years ago when assailants beat him so badly that several fingers and one of his legs had to be amputated. He was confined to a wheelchair. He could not speak.

Sadly, Beketov’s plight is not unusual. In Russia, violence against journalists is not directed by the state per se, but rather is enabled by the state. In her 2004 book Putin’s Russia, the journalist Anna Politkovskaya explained in detail how this system worked: when a journalist criticizes an official or rich person too strongly, they are first threatened, then hurt a little bit, and then, eventually, killed. The killers are never brought to justice.

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Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military April 17, 2013

China deploys navy ships to patrol islands disputed with Japan

A day after asking Japan to stop encroaching its territory, Chinese military on Wednesday for the first time deployed its naval ships to patrol the islands disputed with Tokyo in the East China Sea. This is the first time in recent months China deployed its naval vessels for patrols in the islands waters replacing the marine surveillance vessels, even though some naval ships were seen in the waters earlier. A two-vessel fleet of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy patrolled the territorial waters surrounding the Diaoyu islands this morning

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Economy, GeoPolitics, Stratagem April 17, 2013

Rise of the PetroYuan

History is being written in the East. As the U.S. stays distracted with stone age warriors in Central Asia and the Middle East, the last platform of the American economic foundation, the U.S. Dollar’s currency reserve status, is being underminded by their trade partners in Asia. Both Australia and Japan are set to start direct-trading in Chinese currency and they are not the only ones. There are almost 20 countries whom have currency swaps in place with China all in order to side-step the U.S. Dollar in global trade.

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Conflict, Drill, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military April 16, 2013

Moscow Fuming Over U.S.-Georgia Military Drill

More than 350 U.S. marines and several hundred Georgian Army troops angered Moscow by holding a month-long military drill in the former Soviet republic that ended on April 5. The U.S.-Georgia war exercise, code named “Agile Spirit 2013,” prompted the Russians to stage large-scale, unscheduled drills of their own.

In a snap response to the war drills, Russia held large-scale military exercises of its own in the Black Sea, causing great alarm in Georgia. “The current drills are unscheduled, unusual and go beyond the usual location of the armed forces in the spirit of the 2011 Vienna Document on Confidence and Security-Building Measures,”

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Policy, Stratagem April 16, 2013

Geopolitics makes a global comeback

For half a century, geopolitical theory was effectively banned. In the USSR, this branch of science was described as “bourgeois.” In the West, it was considered politically incorrect, and was largely the preserve of provincial professors with no hope of entering the establishment. The situation began to change with the advent of the new century, and now geopolitics is back in ordinary usage and quickly regaining its political correctness and legitimacy. There is no single definition of geopolitics. But in the most general terms, it can be described as the science of investigating the relationship between foreign policy, international relations, and geographical and natural surroundings.

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Analysis, Development, Economy, GeoPolitics, Resources April 16, 2013

Future trends for the European energy pipeline industry

Looking forward, more gas transport options in Europe are forecasted. The next five years will see the realisation of a considerable number of ambitious interregional projects, including new supply routes: West Nabucco, Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, TAPI and Russia-South Korea, which could be possible route alternatives for Gazprom’s South Stream. The trend towards greater European integration ramps up the enforcement to overcome national boundaries and focus to a greater extent on a Europe-wide network.

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Economy, GeoPolitics, Resources April 16, 2013

Turkey Floats Gas Pipeline Plan With Israel

The Turkish energy minister, Taner Yildiz, says his country would be open to the construction of a pipeline to distribute Israel’s newly discovered gas.

“The issue may become an important topic that the two can cooperate on,” said Ozel. “The Israelis have already made a suggestion to send some of their gas by pipelines to Turkey. And this fits well with Turkey’s grand desire to be the grill full of pipelines from north to south, from east to west, and therefore become on energy matters, if not a hub, certainly an indispensable transition place.”

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GeoPolitics, Intelligentsia, News April 15, 2013

Putin’s spies target German embassy staff

Over 25 years after his stint as a spy in Dresden for the Soviet KGB, Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasing surveillance of the German government as the Kremlin ratchets up its anti-German rhetoric, Der Spiegel magazine reported on Monday. After several years of relatively relaxed relations between Russia and Germany, cracks in their strategic friendship are appearing once again, wrote the magazine. In the latest incident, the Kremlin’s intelligence service, the FSB, began squeezing Russian employees of the German embassy in Moscow for information.

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Crisis, GeoPolitics April 15, 2013

Egypt in dangerous state of limbo

It was what secularists had feared would secure an Islamist state. After granting himself sweeping powers and pushing through a controversial new constitution, President Mohamed Morsi had been calling for parliamentary elections with haste. With the opposition set to boycott, Islamists were poised to dominate. But when a top court cancelled elections last month just weeks before elections were set, the president’s plans were quickly derailed and a more complex struggle reemerged.

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Economy, GeoPolitics, Resources April 14, 2013

Iran in search of foothold in energy-rich West Africa

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad left for Benin on Sunday for his first stop on a three-nation West African tour that will also take him to Ghana and Niger, the world’s fourth-largest uranium producer.

Energy will be high on Ahmadinejad’s agenda during the trip and Benin said talks with President Thomas Boni Yayi would also focus on education and agriculture. According to the World Nuclear Association industry group, uranium from landlocked Niger is trucked to ports in neighbouring Benin for export, with most of it sent to Areva subsidiary Comurhex in France.

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Economy, GeoPolitics, Integration, Military April 14, 2013

A Mediterranean League?

A union of this nature, reminiscent of the so-called “phantom” and comparatively short-lived Periphery Doctrine adopted by prime minister David Ben-Gurion in 1958 but collectively revived, strengthened, and upgraded in the present context, would pool the military resources of these countries under a joint leadership to be agreed upon, and would have the potential of impeding the Turkish hegemon from acting belligerently in the region. (One can see how this rejuvenated policy would work by studying Israel’s covert military agreement with a resurgent Ethiopia and in its leveraging of its knowledge-based industries with many other countries, such as Brazil, Nigeria, China, and India.)

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Analysis, Economy, GeoPolitics, Policy, Powerplay April 14, 2013

DCFTA : A European colonialism in Morocco?

Morocco could be the first victim among the emerging democracies of Southern Mediterranean, a European strategy for economic independence and political sovereignty. The World Social Forum held recently in Tunis, associative altermondialists Maghreb, South European and Scandinavian, had preached an alarming discourse: It would be according to what was discussed by them, a wide ranging a war that is about to pit the EU-27 countries against the democratic spring countries in the southern Mediterranean. Thus, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt and to a lesser extent Jordan, whether it decides its orientation towards democracy or not, will be kept on a leash by Europeans through Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas (DCFTAs)

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Conflict, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics April 14, 2013

China’s View: U.S., Western allies seem securing scenarios for intervention in Syria

Several new developments in Syria have deepened the conviction that Washington and its Western allies have prepared scenarios to justify their positions if they decide to intervene in Syria, even though official rhetoric refers otherwise.

Since last year, the Untied States and several European countries have floated fears of Syria’s chemical weapons “falling into the wrong hands” if the Syrian administration falls. Israel also said it had plans to intervene to secure those arsenals in case of a “regime collapse.”

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Analysis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Powerplay, Stratagem April 14, 2013

China’s new stealth wars

In the way China made land grabs across the Himalayas in the 1950s by launching furtive encroachments, it is now waging separate stealth wars—without firing a single shot—to change the status quo in the South and East China Seas, on the line of control with India, and on international river flows. Although China has risen from a backward, poor state to a global economic powerhouse, the key elements in its statecraft and strategic doctrine have not changed. Since the Mao Zedong era, China has adhered to ancient theorist Sun Tzu’s advice, “The ability to subdue the enemy without any battle is the ultimate reflection of the most supreme strategy.”

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CyberOps, GeoPolitics, Intelligentsia, ISR April 14, 2013

Russia’s facebook like service accused of collaborating with FSB to strangle anti-Putin user activity

Russia’s leading social network, Vkontakte.ru (also known as VK.com), has cooperated with the FSB – the post-Soviet successor to the KGB – in manipulating user trust and disregarding its own privacy rules, charged opposition-minded daily Novaya Gazeta.

In a denunciation that has galvanized opinions in Russia’s digital domain for the last ten days, Novaya accused the social network of behind-the-scenes political scheming back in late 2011 and early 2012. Amid the political turmoil that followed the controversial parliamentary and presidential elections, Vkontakte is reported to have given away users’ personal data to the FSB and also blocked some users who supported the political opposition.

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Economy, GeoPolitics, Policy April 14, 2013

France plans currency swap line with China: paper

France intends to set up a currency swap line with China to make Paris a major offshore yuan trading hub in Europe, competing against London, the China Daily on Saturday cited Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer as saying.

Yuan deposits in Paris amount to 10 billion yuan ($1.6 billion), making it the second largest pool for the Chinese currency in Europe after London. Almost 10 percent of Sino-French trade is settled in yuan, also called the renminbi or RMB, according to French data cited by the official newspaper. “The Bank of France has been working on ways to develop a RMB liquidity safety net in the euro area with due consideration of a supporting currency swap agreement with the People’s Bank of China,” Noyer told the English-language newspaper.

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Analysis, Conflict, Development, GeoPolitics April 12, 2013

Pentagon considers ECOWAS troops inept, will AFRICOM step in?

The Pentagon has thus indicate that, according to him, the troops of the economic community of West African States were “totally incapable” carry on fighting against terrorist groups from northern Mali. History of ‘impulsive actions’ in its own way create a future US intervention in the Malian territory.

More than 300 personnel of Africom should soon settle in the Sahel region, or more precisely in Niger, countries for the less strategic for the French nuclear group Areva, the latter operator an important site of uranium mining on its territory.

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Analysis, GeoPolitics, Intelligentsia, Strategic Interests April 12, 2013

The Estonia-Russia Border Treaty: Which Scenario Will Prevail?

After years of animosity between Tallinn and Moscow about such delicate issues as the position of the Russian-speaking minority, Estonia’s NATO ambitions and the dramatic course of 20th century history, some sunshine is coming through in Estonian-Russian relations – the countries’ prime ministers met in St. Petersburg late last week and border treaty negotiations are now taking place this week. Historian Jeroen Bult has been following the weather patterns.

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Analysis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military Buildup, Powerplay April 12, 2013

ICG: Russian Military Settling In For Long Haul In Abkhazia

The 2008 war with Georgia allowed Russia to greatly enhance its already considerable military presence. Russian officials say there are roughly 5,000 Russian personnel in Abkhazia: 3,500 military and 1,500 Federal Security Service (FSB) officers and “border guards”. Moscow allocated $465 million over four years to the rehabilitation and construction of military infrastructure. This included work on Bombora, the largest military airfield in the South Caucasus, in Gudauta. Though Russian media sources describe significant weapons at the base, Western military officials in late 2012 said intelligence indicated only four fighter craft there on a regular basis – two Sukhoi 27s and two MiG-29s.

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