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Border Incursion, Flashpoints, Military, Resources, Strategic Interests May 17, 2012

Energy Engagement: Turkish warplanes intercept Israeli jet violating Turkish Cyprus airspace

TURKEY accused Israel on Thursday of violating the airspace of Turkish-occupied northern Cyprus in a controversial oil and gas exploration area.

The Israeli aircraft “violated” the northern Cyprus’s airspace five times in Monday’s incident which saw Turkish fighter jets chase out the intruder, the army command said in a statement.

The airspace violations reportedly occured between 11:05 a.m. and 12:49 p. m., and lasted a total of eigth minutes.

It gave no other details about the incident nor the type of Israeli plane involved in the alleged incursion over the breakaway statelet, which is recognized only by Ankara.

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Flashpoints, Intelligensia, Resources, Strategic Interests May 17, 2012

PLA ships seen testing drones in Pacific Ocean

Japan says more Chinese naval ships have been seen near Okinawa, with some staging drills involving unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) able to carry missiles and conduct surveillance that analysts say is crucial for China to expand its maritime power.

The Joint Staff Office of the Japanese Defence Ministry said the country’s maritime defence force on Monday morning spotted three Chinese ships – two Type 054A multi-role warships and one Dongdiao 232 electronic surveillance ship – going through the Okinawa Miyako Strait on their way to the East China Sea.

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Economy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Risks May 17, 2012

Greek eurozone exit ‘could spark coup’

As markets prepare for the prospect of a Greek exit from the euro, one prominent British economist says Greece could face a military coup if it abandons the single currency.

Financial markets have been sold down amid speculation Greece will have to leave the eurozone and abandon its debts.

But Sav Savouri, chief economist at London based hedge fund Tosca Fund, says the country has little option but to remain in the 17-member currency bloc because the situation will be very bleak if it leaves.

Mr Savouri had a grim view of the outlook for the country if Greece returned to the drachma.

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Conflict, Development, Flashpoints, Military, Policy, Risks May 17, 2012

Plans to strike Iran “ready”, says U.S. Israel envoy

U.S. plans for a possible military strike on Iran are ready and the option is “fully available”, the U.S. ambassador to Israel said, days before Tehran resumes talks with world powers which suspect it of seeking to develop nuclear arms.

Like Israel, the United States has said it considers military force a last resort to prevent Iran using its uranium enrichment to make a bomb. Iran insists its nuclear program is for purely civilian purposes.

“It would be preferable to resolve this diplomatically and through the use of pressure than to use military force,” Ambassador Dan Shapiro said in remarks about Iran aired by Israel’s Army Radio on Thursday.

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Flashpoints, Intelligensia, Military Buildup, Stratagem, Strategic Interests May 16, 2012

US/Australia Cocos Islands spy plan

DEFENCE plans to develop the Cocos Islands in the Indian Ocean as a base for Australian and US spy drones and aircraft run counter to assurances Canberra has given the United Nations, one of Australia’s most senior foreign policy figures has warned.

Australia promised it would not ”militarise” the islands when persuading key nations at the world body not to oppose the transfer of the former British possession to Australian sovereignty, the former Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade secretary Richard Woolcott, said.

The recent Defence Force Posture Review suggested Defence consider upgrading the Cocos Islands airfield to support the new P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft likely to be acquired by the Royal Australian Air Force.

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Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Paramilitary, Powerplay May 16, 2012

US helps coordinates arms for Syria rebels: report

Syria’s rebels have seen an influx of arms including anti-tank weaponry for their fight against President Bashar al-Assad regime, in an effort coordinated with the help of the United States, a report said today.

Officials in President Barack Obama’s administration insist it is not directly supplying the weapons or providing funding, with Gulf states paying for the new arms, the Washington Post said, citing US and foreign officials.

But Washington has stepped up links with the rebels and regional militaries allying with them, playing a role in the rebel’s foreign support network, the report said.

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Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, News May 16, 2012

Euro fears rise as Greeks withdraw money from banks

Greeks have withdrawn billions of euros from their banks in recent days, with the country’s president warning of “panic” at the prospect of the country leaving the eurozone.

“My family already sent some €20,000 of our savings to my sister, who lives in Switzerland,” says M.S., a Greek citizen who lives in Brussels and works in the financial sector.

Like him, many Greeks are either transferring their savings abroad or taking them out of the banks, driven by fear that the country may have to leave the eurozone.

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Conflict, Development, Flashpoints, Risks May 16, 2012

‘Accidental war’ waiting to happen on EU periphery

If or when a full-blown conflict erupts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, it will probably begin like this.

According to a senior source in the Armenian defence ministry, on 27 April Azerbaijani troops sneaked over the Armenian border in the north-east province of Tavush and took up positions on either side of a road connecting the villages of Movses and Aygepar.

At around 2am local time – the source said – they opened fire from close range at the windscreen of an approaching car carrying out-of-uniform Armenian soldiers. The ambush killed 28-year-old David Abgaryan, 21-year-old Arshak Nersisyan and 26-year-old father-of-one Aram Yesayan.

The killing is a “clear provocation,” the source told EUobserver in Yerevan on 5 May. He added: “We have not reacted yet. I underline ‘yet’.”

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Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints May 16, 2012

Eurozone shocked by ‘O’ percent economic growth

The 17-nation eurozone grows 0 percent in quarter as Germany remains the only large economy to post expansion. Even the Netherlands’ economy shrinks 0.2 percent, signaling no quick recovery for the euro area
Two men are the only customers of an almost empty terrace in the Plaza Mayor, in Madrid. Spain has announced that its economy is back in recession. AP photo

The eurozone just avoided recession in early 2012 but the region’s debt crisis sapped the life out of the French and Italian economies and widened a split with paymaster Germany.

Eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) stagnated in the first quarter, the EU’s statistics office Eurostat said yesterday.

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Conflict, Flashpoints, Military, News May 16, 2012

Lebanese army deploys in Tripoli areas hit by fighting

The Lebanese army deployed Tuesday in sectors of Tripoli affected by clashes, calming the area after three days of sectarian fighting that killed nine people, an AFP correspondent said.

Troops entered Syria Street, the frontline of fighting between the districts of Bab el-Tebbaneh, and Jabal Mohsen, at around 6:00 am (0300 GMT).

Bab al-Tebbaneh sits opposite Jabal Mohsen, where the majority of residents are supporters of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

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Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Risks May 15, 2012

Moody’s downgrades 26 Italian banks; ratings now among the lowest in Western Europe

Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the debt ratings of 26 Italian banks Monday as they struggled with the effect of the weak economy and government austerity measures.

The move means Moody’s now ranks Italy’s banks lower than most of their Western European peers.

The ratings agency said the banks are suffering because Italy is back in recession and government measures are cutting demand for loans. Banks are facing more loan losses, limited access to funding and weaker profits.

Moody’s noted, however, that support from the European Central Bank lowered the default risk of many of the banks.

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Diplomacy, Flashpoints, Stratagem, Strategic Interests May 15, 2012

S. Korea, China to cooperate on Pyongyang GPS jamming

South President Lee Myung-bak and his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao agreed to cooperate on devising measures to address North Korea’s jamming of satellite traffic navigation signals during their talks here on Monday.

The leaders exchanged their views on the safety of passenger flight operations in South Korea, China and Japan, said Kim Tae-hyo, senior presidential secretary for national security.

In recent weeks, hundreds of aircraft and ships in South Korea have been affected by Global Position System disruptions, which Seoul authorities claim were caused by the North’s electric jamming waves.

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Development, Diplomacy, Flashpoints, Military Buildup, Risks May 15, 2012

South Korea cautions against deployment of US tactical nukes

Seoul officials and experts cautioned against the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula proposed by some in the United States, which they fear could refuel an atomic arms race in Northeast Asia.

The US House Armed Services Committee on Thursday approved an amendment to the fiscal 2013 national defense authorisation bill that calls for the re-introduction of the sensitive weapons to South Korea, according to the diplomacy publication Foreign Policy.

While the South Korean government is not openly criticising the idea, concerned ministries say that Seoul remains fundamentally in favour of denuclearisation of the peninsula and that such developments will bring little security benefits for Seoul.

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Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Military Buildup, Resources, Risks May 14, 2012

AllAfrica: Former U.S. official calls for arming South Sudan army

The United States should move in to provide anti-aircraft defense systems to South Sudan in order to discourage Khartoum from launching aerial attacks and persuade it into returning to negotiations, former special envoy to Sudan said.

Since South Sudan gained its independence from the north in July 2011, it has accused its northern neighbor of bombarding inside its territories and particularly near the border regions. Some of the bombings were confirmed by UN officials and journalists.

The alleged bombing campaigns intensified particularly after the outbreak of rebellions last year in the border states of Blue Nile and South Kordofan by the Sudan People Liberation Movement North (SPLM-N).

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Protest, Regime Change May 14, 2012

The Kremlin’s Cognitive Dissonance

It seems that for the past five months the authorities have been suffering from cognitive dissonance in their relations with Muscovites.

This is a disorder in which someone’s beliefs do not match objective reality. Unable to change his convictions, the person instead rejects reality and enters an imaginary world. That explains why Russian leaders behave as if they enjoy the support of the majority of Muscovites, despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

There have been more street protests in Moscow in the past five months than in the previous 15 years combined. Of course, the demonstrators account for only about 1 percent of Moscow’s population, but that means that there are several angry, opposition-minded people in practically every apartment building in the city. A Ph.D. in sociology isn’t necessary to understand that Muscovites are unhappy with the ruling regime.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Protest, Regime Change, Rigging, Risks May 13, 2012

Awaiting the Next Revolution

The violence that accompanied the inauguration of Vladimir Putin as Russian president this week is an ominous sign that Putin’s apparent desire to rule for life is leading his country toward a dangerous political confrontation.

Initial demonstrations following last December’s fraudulent Russian parliamentary elections were cheerful. Crowds of more than 100,000 kept to agreed meeting places and routes and even thanked the police for showing restraint.

On the eve of this Monday’s inauguration, however, police made 450 arrests and attacked demonstrators with batons, sending at least 17 people to the hospital. More than 20 police were injured by debris and beer bottles thrown by protesters.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Military Buildup, Stratagem, Strategic Interests May 12, 2012

“NATO plans to heighten tensions with Russia”

NATO plans to upgrade the U.S. estimated 180 tactical nuclear weapons in Western Europe will only heighten tensions with Russia.

This is according to European Leadership Network (ELN), a thinktank supported by former British defense ministers.
The ELN experts believe that the NATO plans are unnecessary, expensive and likely to exacerbate already difficult relations with Russia.

The Alliance is preparing to replace “dumb” free-fall nuclear bombs and ageing delivery aircraft with precision-guided weapons that would be carried by U.S. F35 strike aircraft.

The report was written by former arms control adviser to the U.S. mission at NATO headquarters in Brussels Ted Seay.

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Border Incursion, Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Intelligensia, Stratagem, War Crimes May 10, 2012

Turkish Daily: CIA and Mossad behind Syria Bombings

The Turkish daily Aydinlik said that suicide bombings represent a way of incitement carried out by the CIA and Mossad agents in Iraq, and are applied now in Syria, Lebanese daily Al-Benaa reported.

“CIA and Mossad agents have carried out – and still – various attacks in several countries including Iraq, Pakistan and Libya,” Aydinlik stated in a report published Monday.

The report made it clear that the agents have bombed mosques during the occupation of Iraq in order to incite Shiites against Sunnis and vice versa.

“Those agents have achieved their goal where most of their operations were targeting Shiite and Sunnite mosques. All bombings were declared suicide attacks, while the suicide bombers were announced killed, but the fact is contrary to what was claimed,” the daily added.

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Border Incursion, Drill, Flashpoints, Military May 9, 2012

Massive Show of Force: Over 15 nations to join US-led military drill near Syria border

12000 soldiers from 17 countries carry out a US-led joint military exercise in Jordan amid the ongoing the crisis in Syria. ‘It has nothing to do with Syria. [The timing] is just a coincidence,’ a top US official says
Wounded Syrian soldiers are taken to hospital after a bomb attack which targets their convoy as they escort UN peace observers, including the Norwegian general. AP photo

The United States military said yesterday that 12,000 soldiers from 17 countries would be taking part in this month’s military exercises in Jordan, designed to enhance their ability to meet “security challenges.”

Special action troops, naval and air force units from countries including Turkey, France and Saudi Arabia will carry out the joint training operations, according to the Voice of Russia.

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Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military, News May 9, 2012

Another Mutual Defense Treaty?: ‘What will America do if China attacks Filipino forces in Spratlys?’

The Philippines and the United States entered into a Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) on August 30, 1951, in Washington, D.C.

As stated in the MDT’s preamble, both the Philippines and the US desire to publicly declare, through the MDT, their sense of unity and common determination to defend themselves against external armed attack, so that no potential aggressor could be under the illusion that either of them stands alone in the Pacific Area. (Refer to the third paragraph of the MDT’s preamble.)

Article IV of the MDT states: “Each party recognizes that an armed attack in the Pacific area on either of the parties would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common dangers in accordance with its constitutional processes.”

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Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Resources, Strategic Interests May 9, 2012

Winds of war between Beijing and Manila blowing across the South China Sea

In their public statements, Manila and Beijing are seemingly stoking the winds of war blowing across the South China Sea over disputed islands in which other Asia-Pacific nations, including the United States, have a stake.

Beijing warned yesterday that it was ready to respond to any escalation of a tense, month-long standoff with the Philippines at Scarborough Shoal, a reef between Luzon Island and Zhongsha Islands.

“The Chinese side has … made all preparations to respond to any escalation of the situation by the Philippine side,” Deputy Foreign Minister Fu Ying said after summoning Alex Chua, chargé d’affaires at the Philippines Embassy in Beijing on Monday, the Foreign Ministry said yesterday. Fu made a “serious representation” about the standoff.

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Conflict, Development, Flashpoints, Military Buildup, Stratagem May 9, 2012

India to prepare for pincer strikes by Pakistan, China

On Monday, the Rajya Sabha members flagged China emerging as India’s new security threat overtaking Pakistan. Summing up, Leader of the Opposition Arun Jaitley said on Tuesday: “A new axis is emerging between China and Pakistan. We do not want repeat (of) the same mistake as in 1962. The armed forces should be prepared for 90 day full spectrum war.”

Responding to that Antony said India had a “volatile and dangerous neighbourhood,” and growing proximity between China and Pakistan was a cause of worry.

“Threat perceptions are changing so we are changing our strategy. New directions were given to the armed forces to meet the challenges for emerging security scenario,” he said, hinting at the possibility of a joint coordinated strike.

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Crisis, Development, Flashpoints, Military, Risks May 8, 2012

Pentagon sending military trainers to Yemen

The Pentagon said Tuesday it is sending military trainers back to Yemen for “routine” counterterrorism cooperation with Yemeni security forces amid an intensified battle against an offshoot of the al-Qaida terror network.

“We have begun to reintroduce small numbers of trainers into Yemen,” a Pentagon spokesman, Navy Capt. John Kirby, told reporters.

Another American official said the arriving troops are special operations forces, who work under more secretive arrangements than conventional U.S. troops and whose expertise includes training indigenous forces. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the subject publicly.

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Conflict, Economy, Flashpoints, Resources, Stratagem, Strategic Interests May 8, 2012

Petrodollar Warfare: Iran Accepts Renminbi for Crude Oil

Iran is accepting renminbi for some of the crude oil it supplies to China, industry executives in Beijing and Kuwait and Dubai-based bankers said, partly as a consequence of U.S. sanctions aimed at limiting Tehran’s nuclear program.

Tehran is spending the currency, which is not freely convertible, on goods and services imported from China.

Most of the oil that goes from Iran to China is handled by the Unipec trading arm of Sinopec, China’s second-largest oil company, and through another trading company called Zhuhai Zhenrong, the oil industry executives said.

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Analysis, Conflict, Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints, Resources, Strategic Interests May 8, 2012

Turkish Factor In Leviathan and Aphrodite ‘Energy Wars’

Leviathan gas field, which is located in the Mediterranean Sea in 135km from the Israeli Haifa, was discovered in 2010 by the American Noble Energy Company, which concluded contract with Israeli government back in 2008 on initiating joint gas and oil exploration in the Mediterranean. The gas reserves found in 2010 can be considered rather impressive as, according to Noble Energy the total natural gas reserves in this field are estimated up to 450 billion m3 which makes it one of the biggest gas fields in the world. The importance of Leviathan for Israel is conditioned by the fact that it will exempt the Jewish state from the energy dependence on Egypt, which imports exports gas to Israel. Taking into consideration that the political processes going on in Egypt since 2011 can bring to power “Muslim brothers”, who are of radical anti-Israeli orientation, discovering and processing of a gas field of its own has become for Israel an issue of paramount national importance.

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Analysis, Crisis, Flashpoints, Policy, Risks May 7, 2012

CIA: Following Trends and Triggers: Estimating State Instability

Estimating state instability is more than warning. It is a structured analysis of instability types, their likelihood and potential impact on US national interests, and their most likely and most dangerous manifestations. This kind of analysis goes beyond determining probabilities. It also structures scenarios and evaluates the potential impact of events.

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Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints, Risks May 7, 2012

Greeks punish main parties, risk euro exit

Greeks angry at years of austerity shrugged off the risk of a euro zone exit and punished their ruling parties, which failed to win enough votes to form a ruling coalition in Sunday’s election.

With about 95 percent of the vote counted, conservative New Democracy and Socialist PASOK, who have dominated Greece for decades and are the only two major parties supporting an EU/IMF bailout program that keeps Greece afloat, won less than 33 percent of ballots and only 150 out of 300 parliament seats.

In order to renew their uneasy partnership, they would have to woo other reluctant parties.

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Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints, Risks May 7, 2012

Euro punished after France, Greece elections

The euro sank in value on Monday as the electoral defeat of ruling parties in France and Greece stoked anxiety in Asia about the fate of austerity policies designed to end the eurozone’s debt crisis.

Among creditor nations in Asia, concern emerged in Japan andChina about the zone’s policy direction after Socialist Francois Hollande beat President Nicolas Sarkozy in France and Greek voters punished pro-austerity parties.

Sarkozy’s defeat on Sunday was not necessarily a surprise, National Australia Bank said in a research note.

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Conflict, Flashpoints, Military, News, Strategic Interests May 4, 2012

AMISOM: US steps up training for African force in Somalia

At a training camp in Uganda, a dozen soldiers crouch, weapons raised as they make their way down a dirt road between shipping containers set up to look like buildings in the Somali capital.

Standing by, observing the Ugandan troops at work, is a U.S. marine, Major Mark Haley.

“Here is where we are going to teach urban warfare, how to fight building to building,” Haley said as the Ugandans moved between containers scrawled with graffiti reading “City of Death” and “Hell Zone”.

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Flashpoints, Military Buildup, News, Risks May 4, 2012

Taiwan’s China ‘Carrier killer’ program goes ahead

A stealth 500-tonne fast attack “carrier killer” missile boat under development is pictured in this computer-generated rendition released in December 2010.

Despite hitting a snag in a recent bidding process, the navy is proceeding with the development of a stealth 500-tonne fast attack missile boat that is already being hailed as Taiwan’s “carrier killer.”

Plans for the indigenous development of the 500-tonne corvette were first made public in 2009. In April the following year, Deputy Minister of National Defense Lin Yu-pao (林於豹) told the legislature that design work as part of the Hsun Hai (迅海, “Swift Sea”) program was completed and that bidding would be held this year.

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Development, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Integration, Powerplay, SuperClass May 4, 2012

Eurocrats’ secret plan to abolish EU sovereignty

Senior Eurocrats are secretly plotting to create a super-powerful EU president to realise their dream of abolishing Britain and other nation states, UK media has revealed.

A covert group of EU foreign ministers has drawn up plans for merging the jobs currently done by Herman Van Rompuy, president of the European Council, and Jose Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission.

The new bureaucrat, who would not be directly elected by voters, is set to get sweeping control over the entire EU and force member countries into ever-greater political and economic union.

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Crisis, Diplomacy, Flashpoints, Military, Stratagem, Strategic Interests May 3, 2012

Russia’s military brass threatens preemptive strike if NATO goes ahead with missile plan

Russia’s top military officer has threatened to carry out a pre-emptive strike on U.S.-led NATO missile defense facilities in Eastern Europe if Washington goes ahead with its controversial plan to build a missile shield.

President Dmitry Medvedev said last year that Russia will retaliate militarily if it does not reach an agreement with the United States and NATO on the missile defense system.

Chief of General Staff Nikolai Makarov went even further Thursday. “A decision to use destructive force pre-emptively will be taken if the situation worsens,” he said at an international conference attended by senior U.S. and NATO officials.

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Crisis, Diplomacy, Flashpoints, Military Buildup May 3, 2012

US neutrality stance broken, triples military aid to Philippines in 2012

The United States will nearly triple its military funding for the Philippines this year, the Philippine foreign ministry said on Thursday, as tensions rise with China over disputed islands and Washington bolsters its alliance with Manila.

However, the Philippines expressed concern over what it said was a sharp decline in its share of U.S. foreign military financing (FMF) despite Manila’s central role in the U.S.’s military “pivot” back to Asia.

Foreign Minister Albert del Rosario said the Philippines accounted for over 70 percent of total FMF allocation for East Asia in 2006, compared to 35 percent this year.

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Crisis, Development, Diplomacy, Flashpoints, Military Buildup May 3, 2012

Philippines seeks US help to build its military

The Philippines is asking for more U.S. military hardware and says it’s in Washington’s strategic interest to help.

Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario said Wednesday the Philippines is submitting a list requesting patrol vessels and aircraft, radar systems and coast watch stations.

His comments come after high-level talks in Washington this week, and amid a continuing standoff between the Philippines and China at a disputed shoal in the South China Sea.

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Crisis, Development, Flashpoints, Military Buildup, News May 2, 2012

Israel Approves Call Up of 22 Additional Battalions to Secure Egypt, Syria Borders

Instability in Egypt and Syria has led the Israel Defense Forces to call up 6 additional battalions for emergency duty, with 16 others available if needed.

Israel’s Parliament, the Knesset, received a request from the IDF to call up the reservists and granted that request based on a 2008 law known as the Reserve Duty Law.

“IDF reserve forces are a key component in the IDF’s operation strength, during both routine and emergency situations. Following security assessments, a number of battalions were called up for military service for the second time in a three year period,” the IDF said in a statement to The Algemeiner.

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Border Incursion, Conflict, Development, Flashpoints, Military Buildup, Stratagem, Strategic Interests May 2, 2012

Map: US bases encircle Iran

US military bases continue to form a strategic envelope around Iran, although the American withdrawal from Iraq at the end of 2011 may have changed the regional balance somewhat towards Iran’s favour. While US forces are scaling back in many parts of the globe due to budget cuts – and have begun a gradual depature from Afghanistan to be completed by 2014 – their international presence remains vast.

From an active-duty force of 1.4 million soldiers, the US has deployed some 350,000 troops to at least 130 foreign countries around the world. Some are at Cold War-era installations, but many are in or near combat zones in the Middle East. At more than 750 bases internationally, private contractors and third-country nationals also form a large percentage of the staff, in addition to military reservists and civilian employees of the Pentagon.

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Border Incursion, Crisis, Flashpoints, Resources, Strategic Interests, Territorial Dispute May 2, 2012

Taiwan sets up airborne unit for contested Spratly Islands

Taiwan’s defence ministry said Wednesday that it has formed a special airborne unit capable of scrambling to the contested Spratly islands in just hours, as tensions in the South China Sea mounted.

The unit has been set up under a plan named “airborne fast response and maritime support” which was unveiled for the first time in a report by the ministry to parliament, officials said.

No details of the unit, such as its size, were released to the public, but local media said that if needed, it can arrive on Taiping Island, the biggest in the disputed waters, onboard C-130 transport planes within four hours.

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Border Incursion, Drill, Flashpoints, Military, News May 2, 2012

IDF Conducts ‘Lebanon Attack’ Drill

IDF forces carried out a series of contingency maneuvers along the Blue Line on Tuesday to prepare for a possible attack as it constructs a 6-meter high separation wall between Israel and Lebanon.

According to Lebanese sources, tens of Israeli soldiers were deployed in the defacto border region and were visible from the border town of Kfar Kila.

The troops – said to number in the “tens” – deployed using Hummers and asked the construction company to evacuate the area for practice.

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Flashpoints, Military Buildup, News, Strategic Interests April 30, 2012

Letter signals US may sell Taiwan new fighter jets

A lawmaker yesterday suggested the government look into reports that the United States is considering selling new fighter aircraft to Taiwan.

The military might as well explore the possibility of submitting a “letter of request” to Washington on the matter, said Lin Yu-fang (林郁方), convener of the Legislature’s National Defense and Foreign Affairs Committees.
In its reply to a letter to Senator John Cornyn, a Republican from Texas, the White House on Friday said it would seriously consider selling new U.S. fighter jets to Taiwan to close a gap in air power with China.

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Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Risks April 30, 2012

EU Readying ‘Marshall Plan For Europe’: Report

The European Commission is preparing a €200 billion “pact for growth” to be presented at the next EU summit in June.

According to leading Spanish newspaper, El País, the plan aims to raise funds valued at €200 billion for investments in infrastructure, renewable energies and advanced technologies with the involvement of the private sector, in a bid to kick-start economic growth without raising public debt in the 27 member states.

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Crisis, Diplomacy, Flashpoints, Military April 30, 2012

Increased U.S. military presence prompts unease in Philippines

The squad from the U.S. Army’s 196th Infantry Brigade was moving quietly through the hills of Luzon Island when the staccato bursts of machine gun fire sent them into action.

About a dozen soldiers fired into the surrounding mountains, while a small contingent broke away to make a direct assault on the hidden gunmen. After a brief, intense gun battle, the squad cleared the area.

The firefight was part of joint military exercises in which the message, at least in part, appeared to be clear despite proclamations to the contrary.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Military, News April 30, 2012

S. Korea, US to form nuke attack contingency plan

The South Korean and US militaries will develop operational scenarios for possible nuclear attacks by North Korea as part of their efforts to improve the ability to respond to weapons of mass destruction, the Ministry of National Defence said Friday.

The scenarios will be discussed at a bilateral table-top exercise later this year aimed at political and military preparations for the North’s nuclear attacks.

The two sides also agreed to cooperate in conducting research and to hold seminars for high-level decision makers in relation to the issue at the first Korea-US Integrated Defence Dialogue meeting that was concluded on Friday in Washington.

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Development, Flashpoints, Military, Stratagem April 27, 2012

New US Stealth Fighters Now at Iran’s Back Door

America’s most sophisticated stealth jet fighters have been quietly deployed to an allied base less than 200 miles from Iran’s mainland, according to an industry report, but the Air Force adamantly denied the jets’ presence is a threat to the Middle East nation.

Multiple stealth F-22 Raptors, which have never been combat-tested, are in hangars at the United Arab Emirates’ Al Dafra Air Base, just a short hop over the Persian Gulf from Iran’s southern border, the trade publication Aviation Week reported.

Air Force spokesperson Lt. Col. John Dorrian would not confirm the exact location of the F-22s, but told ABC News they had been deployed to a base in Southwest Asia — a region that includes the UAE. Dorrian also stressed that the F-22s were simply taking part in a scheduled deployment and are “not a threat to Iran.”

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Conflict, Diplomacy, Flashpoints, Paramilitary, Risks April 27, 2012

New armed group takes control of Timbuktu

A new armed group on Friday tightened its grip on the Malian city of Timbuktu as the Tuareg rebels reached the center.

Members of the National Liberation Front of Azawad (FLNA), which was set up this month, on Thursday arrived in vehicles and seized control of entries to the east and south of the ancient city.

On Friday the group, which says it has neither a secessionist nor Islamist agenda, moved into Timbuktu’s central area.

“Around 100 vehicles full of armed FLNA fighters came today to the (central) Sans Fil area of Timbuktu. They are armed to the teeth,” said a Malian security source in the town.

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Development, Flashpoints, Military, News, Powerplay April 27, 2012

China’s space know-how said threat to U.S., Taiwan

China’s growing capabilities in space could undercut any U.S. military response if Beijing resorted to force to bring self-ruled Taiwan into its fold, a study released Friday by a congressionally mandated U.S. commission said.

China’s military is rapidly boosting its space programs to advance Communist Party interests “and defend against perceived challenges to sovereignty and territorial integrity,” said the 84-page report by the Project 2049 Institute, a research group on Asia-Pacific security issues.

China has claimed Taiwan as its own since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949 and has vowed to bring the island under mainland rule, by force if necessary.

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Crisis, Diplomacy, Flashpoints, Hard Power, Military April 27, 2012

Chinese Army vows to ‘safeguard’ territory in China Sea

The Chinese military has vowed to “fulfill their duty” to safeguard the South China Sea.
“China’s military forces will collaborate closely with related governing bodies, including fishery administration and maritime law enforcement, to jointly ensure the country’s maritime rights and interests,” the China Daily quoted Defense Ministry spokesman Geng Yansheng, as saying.

This was the first official remark from the armed forces of China following a standoff with a Philippine warship in waters off China’s Huangyan Island on April 10.

Analysts claimed that the comments were also in response to growing domestic demand to ensure sovereignty in the South China Sea.

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Flashpoints, History, News April 27, 2012

The Balkanization of Pakistan: Is Baluchistan the next to cede?

Way back in 2006, the eminent US think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published a report titled, “Pakistan: The Resurgence of Baluch Nationalism”. The report highlights the rich natural resources of Baluchistan and then makes the case to use Baluchi rebels against Islamabad and Tehran. Furthermore, the US State Department-funded National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and the Voice of Baluchistan (VOB) have been instrumental in fomenting dissension and nationalistic feelings. NED has been funding the Baluchistan Institute for Development (BIFD) which claims to be the leading resource on democracy, development and human rights in Baluchistan, whereas the VOB on the other hand, has been active in carrying propaganda messages on behalf of the American government. Also, there is the Baluchi Society of North America’s, which openly carries messages of support from Rohrabacher. Over the past few years, the US has also been pressing Pakistan to allow it to open a consulate in Quetta the capital of Baluchistan.

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Analysis, Black Market, Conflict, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military, Military Buildup, Powerplay, Resources April 26, 2012

Sudan at the brink: Hidden hands behind the oil war

Sudan is caught in a multidimensional conflict involving weapons trade, internal instabilities, multiple civil wars and the reality of outside players with their own interests.

None of this is enough to excuse the readiness for war on behalf of Khartoum and Juba, but it certainly presents serious obstacles to any attempt aimed at rectifying the situation.

With a single act of aggression, a whole set of conflicts are prone to flaring up. It is the nature of proxy politics, as many armed groups seek opportunities for territorial advances and financial gains.

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Analysis, Development, Economy, Flashpoints April 26, 2012

Europe’s Collapse Is Becoming Inevitable

For the first time in the history of the European Union, the collapse of the EU has become a realistic scenario. This was stated by the Chairman of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz. Speaking before the board of commissioners, Schulz drew their attention to the fact that the leaders of EU member states are not satisfied with the method of communitarian decision-making in favor of their “re-nationalization”.

Schultz expressed concern over the calls in France and Germany to restore border controls in the Schengen area and the growth of xenophobia in the EU.

Financier George Soros also predicted the imminent end of the euro and the European Union in general. In an interview with the French Le Figaro, Soros has compared the crisis in the European Zone with the collapse of the Soviet Union.

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Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Military April 26, 2012

Syrian ‘transitional government’ set up in Paris: exile

Exiled Syrian businessman Nofal Dawalibi announced in Paris on Thursday the setting up of a “transitional government to answer the needs of the Syrian opposition”, AFP reported.

“The situation in Syria is getting worse every day. Chaos is rising,” said Dawalibi, whose father Maarrouf was Syrian prime minister before President Bashar al-Assad’s Baath party took power in 1963.

“We have decided to replace existing structures with a purely executive structure which coordinates the operations of the divisions fighting for freedom and follows the will of the sovereign Syrian people,” he told reporters.

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Analysis, Conflict, Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints, Risks April 25, 2012

Civil Unrest Leads Aon to Downgrade 37 Countries on Political Risk Map

Aon Risk Solutions, the global risk management business of Aon plc, has just issued its latest political risk map, which gauges the level of risk for international business in more than 200 countries. Aon said “37 countries were downgraded in the Aon 2012 Terrorism & Political Violence Map, largely due to civil unrest.”

The principle reason for the downgrades is linked to the “continued effects of the global economic crisis,” Aon said, “as austerity measures and spending cuts took hold, civil unrest, riots, strikes and student protests were witnessed across large parts of Europe.”

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Conflict, Crisis, Development, Flashpoints, Military, News, Risks, Stratagem, Strategic Interests April 25, 2012

China newspaper warns of ‘small-scale war’ with Philippines

One of China’s most popular newspapers has warned of a potential “small-scale war” between Beijing and Manila as a result of their standoff at Panatag Shoal, or Scarborough Shoal as the area is known internationally.

The Global Times, in an editorial published in its Chinese and English editions, said over the weekend that “China should be prepared to engage in a small-scale war at sea with the Philippines”.

“Once the war erupts, China must take resolute action to deliver a clear message to the outside world that it does not want a war, but definitely has no fear of it,” the tabloid said.

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Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Military, Risks April 25, 2012

Azerbaijan & Armenia Locked in Conflict After Breach of Ceasefire

On April 25, Azeri troops shelled the village of Doveg, Armenia’s Tavush province.

As a village administration representative Manya Sarukhanyan, told PanARMENIAN.Net Azeri troops have been shelling the village from 11 am to 12 pm local time.

Local school and kindergarten students were immediately evacuated; the incident was reported to commanders of a regional regiment, who’ve already arrived at the site to take necessary measures.

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Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints, FUBAR, Risks April 25, 2012

U.K. Succumbs to First Double-Dip Recession Since 1970s: Economy

The U.K. economy shrank in the first quarter as Britain slid into its first double-dip recession since the 1970s, forcing Prime Minister David Cameron to defend his spending cuts in Parliament.

Gross domestic product fell 0.2 percent from the fourth quarter of 2011, when it declined 0.3 percent, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The median of 40 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was for an increase of 0.1 percent. A technical recession is defined as two straight quarters of contraction.

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Conflict, Development, Flashpoints, Military, Sci/Tech, Stratagem April 24, 2012

Deniable War Crimes?: Robots fighting wars could be blamed for mistakes on the battlefield

As militaries develop autonomous robotic warriors to replace humans on the battlefield, new ethical questions emerge. If a robot in combat has a hardware malfunction or programming glitch that causes it to kill civilians, do we blame the robot, or the humans who created and deployed it?

Some argue that robots do not have free will and therefore cannot be held morally accountable for their actions. But psychologists at the University of Washington are finding that people don’t have such a clear-cut view of humanoid robots.

The researchers’ latest results show that humans apply a moderate amount of morality and other human characteristics to robots that are equipped with social capabilities and are capable of harming humans.

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Bioethics, Flashpoints, Protest, Sci/Tech April 24, 2012

Russian Defense ministry tests electromagnetic weapon, might use it to suppress mass protests

Experts from the science and research center of Russia’s Defense Ministry are testing a unique electromagnetic weapon with non-lethal effects, Interfax news agency reported Tuesday.

As the center’s director, Dmitry Soskov said, the weapon would be most effective in local conflicts, where there is no solid frontline. It would also be very useful while suppressing mass riots in cities.

“The new weapon is designed to have non-lethal effects on humans. It has a striking factor in the form of electromagnetic radiation of very high frequency. The directed ray causes intolerable pain,” Soskov said.

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Flashpoints, Military, News, Resources, Stratagem, Strategic Interests April 23, 2012

Russia creates special Arctic troops

The Russian authorities have announced the formation of two dozen special border guard units in the Arctic. The strengthening of the Arctic borders will be implemented in the next eight years. The Defense Ministry promised to patch all the holes in the Arctic border formed in the post-Soviet years. The military presence will be strengthened by the ground troops.

Meanwhile, as noted by the Ministry of Defense, the unprotected border areas in the Arctic are frequented by foreign submarines belonging to the U.S. and the UK not particularly friendly towards Russia. Now these foreign visitors will be required to meet the eight new nuclear attack submarines of class “Severodvinsk”. These submarines are the first to join the Northern Fleet.

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CyberOps, Flashpoints, Intelligensia, Resources, Stratagem, Strategic Interests April 23, 2012

Iranian oil ministry hit by cyber-attack

Iran’s oil ministry has called a crisis meeting after its main website and internal communications system were hit by an apparent cyber-attack that forced authorities to cut off the country’s oil export terminal from the internet.

Local news agencies reported on Monday that a virus had struck the computer and communication systems of Iran’s main oil export facilities on Kharg Island as well as the internal network and the websites of its oil ministry and subsidiary organisations.

The semi-official Mehr news agency quoted ministry officials as saying an investigation was under way. “We are making plans to neutralise this cyber-attack,” said the deputy oil minister in charge of civil defence, Hamdollah Mohammadnejad.

The Kharg Island oil terminal, which exports 80% of the country’s daily 2.2m barrels, was hit by the virus, along with terminals on the islands of Gheshm and Kish.

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Crisis, Development, Diplomacy, Flashpoints, Military April 23, 2012

Philippines Deploys 2 More Warships to Scarborough Shoal, Urges Other Countries Against China

The Chinese-Filipino dispute over the islands in the South China Sea known internationally as Scarborough Shoal is entering its third week, and tensions between the two countries show no signs of dissipating.

The Filipino government is raising the stakes by sending more ships and a plane to the area it refers to as Panatag Shoal and which China calls Huangyan Island.

In China, China Youth Daily and other news outlets reported on Monday that the commander of the Philippine navy, Rear Admiral Alexander Pama, told the Philippines’ ABS-CBN news that his country would dispatch two more warships and an anti-submarine airplane to Scarborough Shoal.

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Conflict, Flashpoints, Military, Regime Change April 23, 2012

ECOWAS moves against the endangered business of coup plotting

From a community once dominated by military heads of state, majority of whom came to power through the usurpation of constitutional order, the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS) is fast gaining a reputation of intolerance of undemocratic succession to power.

From mere rhetoric and handling of military and undemocratic usurpers with kid gloves, ECOWAS has indeed transformed into a community that is ready to go to war to restore constitutional order.

Barely weeks after sustained pressure, including threat of military intervention, caused a reversal of the forceful take over of government in Mali by elements of its military, the sub-regional body once again bared its fangs against the military junta in Guinea Bissau, which forced its way into power penultimate week.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Intelligensia, Military, News, Strategic Interests April 23, 2012

Pentagon creates new espionage unit

The Pentagon is planning to ramp up its spying operations against high-priority targets such as Iran under an intelligence reorganization approved last week by Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta, a senior defense official said Monday.

The newly created Defense Clandestine Service would work closely with the CIA to expand espionage operations overseas at a time when the missions of the agency and the military increasingly converge.

The defense official said the plan was developed in response to a classified study completed last year by the director of national intelligence that concluded that the military’s espionage efforts needed to be more focused on major targets outside war zones.

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Analysis, Drill, Flashpoints, Military April 23, 2012

Expert: Azerbaijan preparing for war against Iran

The exercises Azerbaijan conducted in the Caspian Sea in the period
from April 12 to 20 are preparations for a war against Iran, Nver
Davtyan, specialist in Iranian studies, told media on April 21.

The State Frontier Service of Armenia conducted tactical exercises
“Protection of the oil and gas recovery regions in the Azerbaijani
sector of the Caspian Sea, pipelines, organization of protection in
case of a threat to oil and gas platforms, rescue operations.”

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Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Military, News April 23, 2012

Over 400 killed in recent Sudan v Sudan oil battle

Sudanese forces killed hundreds of South Sudanese during a day-long battle for Sudan’s most important oil field Heglig, a senior official said on Sunday.

Nafie Ali Nafie, a top aide to President Omar al-Bashir, said the “death toll within the SPLA and mercenaries in [the] Heglig battle amounted to 400″, according to the Sudanese Media Centre which is close to the security apparatus.

It did not say how many Sudanese troops died and the army itself has released no casualty figures for either side.

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Flashpoints, Military, News April 22, 2012

NATO to deploy more troops to Kosovo amid tensions

Germany will deploy a quick reaction force of several hundred troops to Kosovo to strengthen the NATO mission there amid heightened tensions ahead of next month’s election in neighboring Serbia, an official said Saturday.

About 550 German soldiers and 130 Austrian troops will be deployed to the region by May 1 at NATO’s request in a bid to strengthen its KFOR peacekeepers mission, said German Central command spokesman Hauke Bunks.

Serbia will hold parliamentary and local elections May 6, which could re-ignite tensions between minority ethnic Albanians and majority Serbs in northern Kosovo.

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Flashpoints, Military Buildup, News April 22, 2012

Taiwan plans to buy four warships from US: report

Taiwan plans to purchase four warships from the United States as part of the island’s efforts to modernise its forces and offset the perceived military threat from China, local media reported on Sunday.

The defence ministry briefed President Ma Ying-jeou on the proposed arms deal during a meeting last month and is prepared to set aside the budget next year, the United Daily News said, without specifying the cost.

The ministry declined to comment on the report.

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Conflict, Crisis, Diplomacy, Flashpoints, Military, News April 20, 2012

South Sudan leader’s Beijing trip goes on amid tensions

The visit by South Sudan’s president to China was not rescheduled despite escalating tension between Sudan and South Sudan.

South Sudan broke away from Sudan in July after decades of civil war, but the two states never agreed on a border, how much the landlocked South should pay to transport its oil through Sudan and the division of national debt, among other issues.

Beijing will offer to mediate and ease the tension during Salva Kiir Mayardit’s April 23-28 visit and will try to ensure the safety and interests of Chinese people and assets in the two African countries, experts said.

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Flashpoints, Paramilitary, Powerplay, Risks April 20, 2012

The New Hungarian Secret Police

TEK was created in September 2010 by a governmental decree, shortly after the Fidesz government took office. TEK exists outside the normal command structure of both the police and the security agencies. The Prime Minister directly names (and can fire) its head and only the interior minister stands between him and the direct command of the force. It is well known that the head of this force is a very close confidante of the Prime Minister.

TEK was set up as an anti-terror police unit within the interior ministry and given a budget of 10 billion forints (about $44 million) in a time of austerity. Since then, it has grown to nearly 900 employees in a country of 10.5 million people that is only as big as Indiana.

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Economy, Flashpoints, FUBAR, Rigging, Risks April 20, 2012

New federal agency OFR stirs ‘Orwellian’ fears

It is the most powerful federal agency you’ve never heard of — and lawmakers from both parties on Thursday vowed to keep abreast of its astonishing growth and rein it in, if necessary.

The Office of Financial Research, or OFR, was created by the Dodd-Frank financial services overhaul that President Obama signed into law in July 2010. Technically housed under the Treasury Department, the agency has until now received its funding not from the Congress, but directly from the Federal Reserve.

Starting in July, the OFR Fiscal Year 2013 budget, estimated at $158 million, will be funded entirely through assessments — also known as taxes — on bank-holding firms with consolidated assets worth at least $50 billion.

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Drill, Flashpoints, Military, News, Stratagem, Strategic Interests April 20, 2012

Taiwan tests ‘China invasion’ scenario

Taiwan Thursday tested its ability to defend one of it largest air bases against Chinese invasion, a scenario experts insisted remained relevant in an age of missile and cyber attacks.

About 1,500 soldiers took part in the drill, part of the island’s biggest annual war game “Han Kuang (Han Glory) No 28″, at Hsinchu Air Base in the north of the island, home to dozens of French-made Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets.

“Radars have detected enemy aircraft approaching from across the Taiwan Strait,” an officer told foreign and local journalists invited to report on the event.

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Flashpoints, Military Buildup, News, Risks, Stratagem April 20, 2012

South Korea Deploys Hyunmu-3C Missile For Strikes Within NK Territory

South Korea has deployed a new long-range cruise missile that puts nuclear and missile sites in the entire North Korean territory within striking distance, defense ministry officials said Thursday, amid growing security jitters sparked by the North’s botched rocket launch.

The new, home-grown cruise missile has a range of “more than 1,000 kilometers and can immediately strike anywhere in North Korea,” said Maj. Gen. Shin Won-sik, the senior official in charge of policy planning at the ministry.

“While maintaining unwavering readiness with this longer-range weaponry, our military will firmly and thoroughly retaliate if North Korea conducts a reckless provocation.”

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Flashpoints, FUBAR, Military, Powerplay April 20, 2012

Bo Xilai Purge Gathers Momentum with Military-Led ‘Inquisition’

In what may be a crucial development in the Bo Xilai affair, the Chinese military is conducting internal investigations into the size and nature of Bo’s military influence.

Bo didn’t have any troops officially under his command. But he did have close relationships with the army, including in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces.

The South China Morning Post reports that on April 15, the Party’s Military Committee sent out five teams to investigate Bo’s influence in the Chengdu Military Region, in Sichuan. The military unit in Yunnan, once led by Bo’s father, has also reportedly been placed under investigation.

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Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Military, News April 20, 2012

Sarkozy calls for humanitarian corridors as Friends of Syria meet

Paris (dpa) – French President Nicolas Sarkozy on Thursday renewed his calls for the establishment of humanitarian corridors in Syria as Western and Arab foreign ministers met in Paris to discuss continuing violations of a UN-brokered ceasefire.

Speaking to Europe 1 radio Sarkozy compared the plight of the opposition stronghold of Homs with the Libyan city of Benghazi, which world powers intervened to protect last year from a threatened massacre by dictator Moamer Gaddafi‘s forces.

“He (Syrian President Bashar al-Assad) wants to wipe Homs off the map like Gaddafi wanted to wipe Benghazi off the map,” Sarkozy accused.

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Crisis, Diplomacy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military, Resources, Strategic Interests April 18, 2012

New Cold War for Resources Looms in Arctic

To the world’s military leaders, the debate over climate change is long over. They are preparing for a new kind of Cold War in the Arctic, anticipating that rising temperatures there will open up a treasure trove of resources, long-dreamed-of sea-lanes and a slew of potential conflicts.

By Arctic standards, the region is already buzzing with military activity, and experts believe that will increase significantly in the years ahead.

Last month, Norway wrapped up one of the largest Arctic maneuvers ever — Exercise Cold Response — with 16,300 troops from 14 countries training on the ice for everything from high intensity warfare to terror threats.

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Analysis, Crisis, Diplomacy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Resources April 17, 2012

Uzbekistan & Tajikistan on the brink of war?

Without a mediator, the Tajik-Uzbek conflict could lead to another civil war in Tajikistan and to a serious destabilization of the whole of Central Asia. For Russia, this means it has to urgently develop a new strategy.

The relations between Dushanbe and Tashkent have worsened considerably lately and both countries are on the brink of open conflict as a result of this. Uzbekistan, knowing that Tajikistan is completely dependent on it has completely cut off the country from gas and transport. Tashkent claims that the blockade is purely economic: the Tajiks do not pay for the transit of gas and it is therefore more profitable to sell gas to the Chinese.

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Conflict, Flashpoints, Military, Powerplay, Regime Change April 17, 2012

‘Attempted military coup against Qatari regime fails’

A military coup was staged against the regime of US-backed Qatari King Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani with no success, a Saudi TV channel reports.

According to Al Arabiya TV, a number of high-ranking military officers rose against the Qatari Emir, triggering fierce clashes between some 30 military officers and US-backed royal guards outside the Emir’s palace, the report said on Tuesday.

The coup was foiled following the arrest of the officers involved in the effort.

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Border Incursion, Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Paramilitary April 16, 2012

Balochistan being pushed to civil war: Raisani

Balochistan Chief Minister Sardar Aslam Raisani has said the province is being pushed to civil war through a plan.

While chairing a meeting to review law and order situation in the province, Aslam Raisani said that the government would launch a targeted operation in Quetta for the restoration of peace.

Provincial Home Minister Zafarullah Zahri, Ali Madad Jatak, religious leaders and representatives of law enforcement agencies were also present on the occasion.

Raisani urged the religious leaders to play their role to normalize the situation in the province.

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Drill, Flashpoints, Military April 16, 2012

Russian Bombers Exercise Near Japan Border

Russia on Monday began a five-day aerial exercise in the country’s maritime territory near the Japanese border in which some 40 strategic bombers are taking part, the Defense Ministry said.

The long-range aviation exercise includes aerial bombings and launching of airborne cruise missiles from the Litovka test range, Russian state media quoted Ministry spokesman Col. Vladimir Drik as saying.

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Drill, Flashpoints, Military, Risks April 16, 2012

Taiwan stages anti-China military exercise

Taiwan has begun its annual military exercise to simulate fending off air attacks and troop landings by communist China.

The Defence Ministry said the five-day Han Kuang, or Chinese Glory, exercise began Monday at air bases and along the island’s coasts. It said thousands of troops will participate in the drills but there will be no live firing.

Instead, officials say, soldiers will use computers to simulate shooting down Chinese drones and aircraft targeting Taiwanese military bases. Chinese drone use is increasing as the country seeks to economize on troop use.

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Flashpoints, Military Buildup, News, Powerplay April 14, 2012

Russian warships to patrol Syrian coast

Russian warships will be continuously deployed for patrol duty off the Syrian coast in the Mediterranean, a defence ministry official said on Friday.

“A decision has been made to deploy Russian warships near the Syrian shores on a permanent basis,” the official said.

Russia’s Kashin-class guided-missile destroyer Smetlivy is currently deployed near the Syrian coast.

“Another Black Sea Fleet ship will replace the Smetlivy in May,” the official said.

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Border Incursion, Crisis, Flashpoints, News, Risks April 14, 2012

Syrian strife hits Lebanese border villages

A few kilometres separate the two Lebanese villages of Ersal and Qaa from the Syrian border, both of which have been unwillingly drawn into the violence of the Syrian uprising. Unrest has been brewing in the region for weeks and recently it was on the receiving end of intermittent gunfire from the Syrian army. The situation remains tense despite the fragile new ceasefire.

Official sources are now reporting Syrian army incursions into Masharii Qaa (the Qaa Projects), a border town consisting of Ersal, a Sunni village, and Qaa, which is predominately Christian. Ersal supports Syrian opposition fighters, whom Qaa residents view with great suspicion.

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Flashpoints, Military, Powerplay April 12, 2012

China puts on show of might over Bo Xilai’s military allies

The People’s Liberation Army, which played a central role in helping the Communist Party win control of China in a long civil war before 1949, does not have a history of meddling in domestic politics.

But the fact that rumors of a military coup to rescue Bo circulated shortly after his downfall on March 15 was a reminder that the ambitious politician has long had good friends among the country’s top brass.

His father, Bo Yibo, was not only one of the “Eight Immortals,” the most senior first-generation Communist leaders, but also a veteran military leader in charge of military affairs in northern China as early as in the 1920s.

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Flashpoints, Military Buildup, News April 12, 2012

New U.S. ‘stealth’ warship could deploy in Asia, Navy says

An enormous, expensive and technology-laden warship that some Navy leaders once tried to kill because of its cost is now viewed as an important part of the Obama administration’s Asia-Pacific strategy, with advanced capabilities that the Navy’s top officer says represent the Navy’s future.

The stealthy, guided-missile Zumwalt that’s taking shape at Bath Iron Works is the biggest destroyer ever built for the U.S. Navy.

The low-to-the-water warship will feature a wave-piercing hull, composite deckhouse, electric drive propulsion, advanced sonar, missiles, and powerful guns that fire rocket-propelled warheads as far as 100 miles. It’s also longer and heavier than existing destroyers — but will have half the crew because of automated systems.

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Development, Flashpoints, Military Buildup, News April 12, 2012

Georgia redesigns reserve troops

Georgia will have approximately 70,000 trained volunteer reservists in summer of this year, while the number will reach 150,000 next year, according to Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. The goal, he said, is to make Georgia’s self-defense system stronger.

“[In] each of Georgia’s villages we will train locals, and this will represent one of the main “guarantees of peace,” Saakashvili said while visiting a state-run factory in Tbilisi named Delta, a part of the Defense Ministry’s research center on April 11.

“In 2008 we all saw clearly that we need [a strong] territorial defense; nobody will do our job for us,” Saakashvili said. The August war, he noted, provided a “good lesson” so Georgia rejected the pre-war system of reserve troops, which was based on size. The new system, he explained, prioritizes quality over quantity.

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Border Incursion, Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Military, Stratagem, Strategic Interests April 12, 2012

PM: Turkey may invoke NATO’s Article 5 over Syrian border fire

In a statement that may be interpreted as the harshest response yet to the escalating 13-month-old Syrian crisis, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for the first time on Wednesday raised the possibility of calling on the NATO military alliance to protect Turkey’s border against incursions by Syrian forces.
Speaking to reporters travelling with him during his official visit to China, Erdoğan said Turkey may consider invoking NATO’s fifth article to protect Turkish national security in the face of increasing tension along the Syrian border. His comments came after four Syrians who fled to Turkey from the violence in Syria were killed by Syrian forces targeting refugees on the Turkish side of the border on Monday.

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Conflict, Development, Flashpoints, Paramilitary April 12, 2012

Sudan, South Sudan war fears loom

Sudan and South Sudan on Wednesday ordered mass civilian mobilisations for defence as their armies battled along their contested border, raising the spectre of a return to all-out war.

A day after Southern troops seized the contested oil-producing Heglig region from Khartoum’s army amid heavy artillery bombardments and air strikes, the parliaments in Juba and Khartoum called for preparation for conflict.

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Analysis, Crisis, Flashpoints, Military, Policy, Risks April 11, 2012

Is Turkey preparing for an intervention in Syria?

The short answer is yes. Although it won’t happen tomorrow or without assistance especially from the United States, which is evidently first going to allow Kofi Annan to try his luck getting Iran to broker a peace deal. But Abdullah Bozkurt, a columnist at Turkey’s Today Zaman newspaper, outlines the legal case for intervention that wouldn’t require UN Security Council authorisation (read: the say-so of Russia and China). This strikes me as the most likely set of events to unfold:

What will happen if the UN cannot get its act together, and Russia and China end up using their veto powers for the third time? Ankara will probably invoke the 1998 Adana agreement with Syria to justify the military interference while calling on NATO members for the application of the Article 5 of the NATO Charter, which says that an attack on any member shall be considered to be an attack on all.

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Analysis, Development, Flashpoints, Hard Power, History, Military, Powerplay April 11, 2012

Inside Russia: Putin’s Private National Guard

Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported that President-elect Vladimir Putin is poised to undertake the most significant reform Russia has seen in recent years by creating a National Guard from scratch. These special forces, numbering up to 400,000 men, would answer directly to the president and would be charged with protecting the country from internal threats.

As a result, Russia would resemble a classic South American or Middle Eastern dictatorship. Take, for example, Syria, where for decades men from the lower classes have had only two career options — a dead-end job with a state company or joining the troops that guard the president. Ironically, Putin is considering adopting such a system even after the entire world witnessed how the Libyan version of this model failed miserably, while the Syrian version of this model is headed toward a similar demise.

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Development, Flashpoints, FUBAR, Policy, Risks April 11, 2012

Uzbekistan Seems About Broke — A Continuing Series

Since the government of Uzbekistan’s economic and budget reports are unreliable, making proxy indicators about the only things that allow for any kind of realistic assessment of the government and country’s financial health. The latest sign of the Uzbek government’s poor financial health is the news that teachers and doctors in Vobkent district of Bukhara province have beenpaid a portion of their salaries in the form of chickens.

Public sector workers get 10 chicks each under the initiative, launched after cabinet ministers in February urged regional governments to boost domestic production of poultry, eggs, meat, and vegetables.

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Development, Diplomacy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Territorial Dispute April 11, 2012

Philippine Warship in Standoff With Chinese Vessels

The Philippines’ largest warship was engaged in a tense standoff with Chinese surveillance vessels Wednesday at a disputed South China Sea shoal, after the ship attempted to arrest Chinese fishermen but was blocked by the surveillance craft.

Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert Del Rosario has summoned Chinese Ambassador Ma Keqing in an attempt to resolve the impasse diplomatically. Del Rosario’s office said in a statement that the Scarborough Shoal “is an integral part of Philippine territory” and Filipino authorities would assert sovereignty over the offshore area.

The Chinese Embassy has accused the Philippine warship of harassing the fishermen.

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Conflict, Development, Flashpoints, Paramilitary April 11, 2012

History Repeating Itself: Afghanistan Fighters Shoved Under The Bus Again!

Afghanistan’s defense minister said Tuesday that his government and the international coalition paying for the war effort had agreed in principle that Afghan security forces would undergo a significant reduction to about 230,000 personnel after theNATO mission ends in 2014.

Under current plans, Afghan security forces are to reach a peak of 352,000 by late this year. Afghan and alliance officials agree that it would be unwise to begin reducing that number before the end of 2014, because in the coming months the number of foreign forces will be reduced and Afghans will be taking over the leading role in defending their nation.

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Development, Flashpoints, Hard Power, Policy, Powerplay April 10, 2012

Ex-Chongqing leader Bo stripped of party posts, wife detained

Bo Xilai, the charismatic former Communist Party chief in the Chinese city of Chongqing, has been stripped of his remaining leadership roles for “violations of party discipline” and his wife has been detained on suspicion of murdering a British businessman, state-run media reported Tuesday.

Bo’s ouster last month as party secretary for Chongqing unleashed one of the most high-profile political shakeups in China since the crushing of pro-democracy demonstrations at Tiananmen Square in 1989.

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Border Incursion, Conflict, Flashpoints April 9, 2012

Syrian violence spills into Lebanon and Turkey

Conflict in Syria burst over the borders into neighboring Lebanon and Turkey on Monday, with one Lebanese cameraman killed and at least four people, two Syrian and two Turkish, injured in fighting on the Syrian-Turkish border.

The violence, on the eve of the deadline of a fading U.N.-backed deal for Syrian troops to withdraw from cities and cease hostilities against a widespread uprising, provoked strong responses from Lebanese and Turkish officials and heightened already tense regional relations.

The incidents came less than two weeks after heavy fighting on the Syrian side of the border with Lebanon threatened to spill into the Qaa area of Lebanon.

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Conflict, Flashpoints, Military, Powerplay April 9, 2012

Special IDF units preparing for mass Lebanon incursion if war breaks out with Hezbollah

Almost six years after the Second Lebanon War, special Israeli units are preparing to take part in mass incursions into Lebanon if another round of fighting with Hezbollah breaks out. Just as important, they are being trained to heed the legal implications.

Officers say the Israel Air Force would destroy targets like training bases and rocket-launching pads within a few days, based on the intelligence gathered by the Israel Defense Forces. But this would not be enough, so a ground offensive would be necessary.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Military, Regime Change April 9, 2012

Belgium Raises Possibility of ‘Military-Aid’ Move in Syria

Belgium said Sunday that humanitarian intervention in Syria under the protection of military forces would be needed if the regime of Bashar Assad pursues the “path of barbarism”.

“The regime has taken the path of barbarism and I trust President Bashar Assad less and less,” said Belgian Foreign Minister Didier Reynders on TV5 television.

“There is a plan on the table with a deadline, April 10,” he added, referring to a formal U.N. Security Council endorsement of April 10 as the deadline for the Syrian army to withdraw from cities, with a complete halt to violence by all sides 48 hours later.

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Development, Flashpoints, Hard Power, Policy, Powerplay, Regime Change April 9, 2012

The Dominoes Are Falling: Key Events That Could Lead to the CCP’s Disintegration

Beginning in February 2012, it became clear that top leaders in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are locked in a power struggle—a power struggle so intense that as it plays out in public, China watchers are able to analyze it with some accuracy.

The following is a timeline of events—with the most recent on top—that our analysts predict are part of a domino effect that will eventually lead to the disintegration of the CCP.

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Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Military, Paramilitary April 8, 2012

Mali: Ecowas Ready to Send Troops to Mali Against Breakaway Tuareg State

Mali’s west African neighbours are threatening to send a military force to the north of the country after the military junta in Bamako agreed to return the country to civilian rule Friday.

An Ecowas communiqué warned armed groups in the north that Mali is “one and indivisible” and that it “shall take all necessary measures, including the use of force, to ensure the territorial integrity of the country”.

The regional grouping “will never recognise” any breakaway state, the statement said.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Military Buildup, News April 8, 2012

North Korea prepares for underground nuclear test

North Korea is preparing for a third underground nuclear test, the South Korean news agency Yonhap reported Sunday.

“North Korea is making clandestine preparations for a third nuclear test at Punggye-ri in North Hamkyong Province, where it conducted two nuclear tests in the past,” the agency quoted an intelligence official as saying on condition of anonymity.

Satellite images show the reclusive communist regime digging a new tunnel underground in the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in the country’s northeast, where it conducted two previous nuclear tests, first in 2006 and then in 2009.The construction is believed to be in its final stage, the intelligence official told the agency.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Military Buildup, Risks, Stratagem April 7, 2012

Russia installs S-400 on Polish Border in response to US missile defense system

The purpose of the S-400 “Triumph” anti-aircraft rocket complex is to combat air attack weapons (tactical and ballistic missiles, aircraft, including those based on “Stealth” technology, and other air targets) in the defense of administrative and political centers, critical facilities and areas in heavy fire and electronic
counteraction. According to open data, the S-400 can detect airborne targets flying at speeds of up to 4.8 km/s at a distance of 600 km. The area of effect from antiaircraft missiles is 400 km at a height of 5 meters to 30 kilometers above the surface. The complex can shoot down ballistic missiles at an altitude of 60 km.

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Analysis, Crisis, Flashpoints, MISO/PSYOP, Public Relations, Risks, Stratagem April 7, 2012

Color Revolution Cliff Notes: What’s the Best Way To Foment Unrest in a Foreign Country?

Shortly after the burning of Qurans at Bagram Air Force Base in Afghanistan became public in February, Iranian agents attempted to “instigate violent protests” inside the country, according to a story published Wednesday by the New York Times. Iran is often accused of instigating,fomenting, or stirring up violence and anti-Americanism in other countries. How, exactly, does a government go about fomenting violence?

With a mixture of videotapes, audio cassettes, and explosives. When U.S. missiles kill Afghan civilians, or U.S. forces commit an affront to Islam, Iran seeks to broadcast the news among the local population. Agents quickly generate and disseminate pieces of audio and video propaganda decrying the indignity and urging civilians to rise up against American forces. Some of these go beyond mere exhortations to violence

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Conflict, Development, Flashpoints, Military Buildup April 7, 2012

Powder Keg In The Caucasus: What Israel Sent To Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan angered its neighbor, Iran, when it recently purchased $1.6 billion in military equipment from Israel. Details of this purchase were never mentioned, but now the veil of secrecy is being lifted.

Among the items ordered were Gabriel anti-ship missiles. These are 522 kg (1,150 pound) weapons with a range of 36 kilometers. Azerbaijan will use these to protect its Caspian Sea coast from the growing number of Iranian warships being introduced in the area.

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StratRisks: Global Insights, Global Intelligence, Strategic News and Risk Assessment "Praemonitus Praemunitus"

StratRisks:
Global Insights, Global Intelligence, Strategic News and Risk Assessment
"Praemonitus Praemunitus"