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Crisis, Economy, Risks May 18, 2013

India at elevated risk of downgrade to junk status credit rating

India is still at significant risk of having its credit rating downgraded to junk status by Standard & Poor’s, despite the government’s efforts to secure an upgrade. S&P on Friday reiterated its negative outlook on India, with its rating sitting just one notch above “junk”.

“The negative outlook signals at least a one-in-three likelihood of a downgrade within the next 12 months,” S&P said. “High fiscal deficits and a heavy government debt burden remain the most significant constraints on our sovereign ratings on India.

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Crisis, Risks May 17, 2013

Venezuela’s military enters high-crime slums

Critics dismiss the “Secure Homeland” initiative as a political charade that risks degenerating into human rights abuses while having no lasting impact on crime. But to many residents, weary of being terrorized by armed gangs, seeing troops on the streets is a welcome projection of government power.

With some 15,000 killings a year, Venezuela’s homicide rate is the fifth highest in the world, according to U.N. statistics. The murder rate doubled during the 14-year-rule of the late President Hugo Chavez as cheap access to guns and an ineffective justice system fed a culture of violence in slums like Petare, parts of which have become no-go zones for outsiders, including police.

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Crisis, Protest May 17, 2013

Egypt faces widespread unrest

Egypt experienced a state of unrest on Friday, as numerous protests across the country took place. While various protests shared similar demands, people largely voiced their concerns on varying issues.

In Alexandria people took to the streets to denounce the rule of President Mohamed Morsi, calling for early presidential elections. A similar protest took place in Cairo, where security surrounding the cabinet building was intensified in preparation.

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Analysis, Crisis, Flashpoints, Military Buildup May 14, 2013

Boston Pretext: Pentagon Unilaterally Grants Itself Authority Over ‘Civil Disturbances’

A new dynamic was introduced to the militarization of domestic law enforcement. By making a few subtle changes to a regulation in the U.S. Code titled “Defense Support of Civilian Law Enforcement Agencies” the military has quietly granted itself the ability to police the streets without obtaining prior local or state consent, upending a precedent that has been in place for more than two centuries.

“Federal military commanders have the authority, in extraordinary emergency circumstances where prior authorization by the President is impossible and duly constituted local authorities are unable to control the situation, to engage temporarily in activities that are necessary to quell large-scale, unexpected civil disturbances.”

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Military Buildup May 14, 2013

As Security in Libya Deteriorates, US Moves Marine Force Closer

Defense Department spokesman George Little confirmed Monday that an element of the U.S. Marine unit in Spain moved over the weekend to Naval Air Station Sigonella in Sicily, Italy. Little said the unit is still on standby, but the move puts it closer to Libya if suddenly needed in Tripoli.

A unit of about 50 Marines has already been providing security at the embassy in Libya since January. Meanwhile, another unit, an elite response team based in Germany and assigned to AFRICOM, was put on alert last week.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Military Buildup May 11, 2013

Libya Plays Down US Military ‘Re-Intervention’

Libyans have played down reports of possible foreign intervention after news reports on Friday said the US has alerted special Marine units to be ready to respond to developments in the security situation in Libya.

Speaking to Libya Al-Hurra TV on Saturday, Mr. Mohamed Abdul Aziz the Libyan Foreign Minister denied the reports of American intervention in Libya and that he was aware that the both the US and Britain withdrew some unessential members of staff in their embassies.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Uprising May 11, 2013

US forces in Europe on alert due to Libya unrest

Marines and other U.S. forces in Europe are on a heightened state of alert in response to a deteriorating security situation in the Libyan capital of Tripoli, a U.S. military official said Friday.

The alert order applies to a U.S. special operations team based in Stuttgart, Germany, as well as a Marine group of air and ground forces based in Moron, Spain, according to the official, who was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity. The forces are under U.S. Africa Command, which acquired the special operations team in the fall.

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Crisis, Economy, News May 5, 2013

Food banks are ‘sign of return to Dickensian world’, warns food expert

Although the Department for Work and Pensions insists that the Government already provides a safety net for essentials such as food through the benefit system, the Prime Minister has acknowledged that many struggle.

Professor Lang said: “There ought to be a very big political debate about food banks. It should be a sign of shame that the sixth-richest economy on the planet has people who are essentially retreating to a Dickensian world. It’s shocking how quickly it’s been normalised.”

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Analysis, Crisis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military May 5, 2013

Fear of new uncertainty hangs over Pakistani elections as military plots

After five years of relatively stable civilian rule, Pakistan seems ready to move ahead with another democratically elected government. But how will that administration behave at home and abroad?

Many longtime observers of Pakistani politics think that the new administration is most likely to be a coalition government of conservative political parties that enjoy the full support of the country’s all-powerful military establishment.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military Buildup May 2, 2013

Indian Army lists counters to Chinese incursion

The army on Wednesday briefed the UPA government on the standoff with China in eastern Ladakh, giving it a slew of options to deal with the Chinese incursion, including a proposal to increase troop levels on the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

Indian soldiers have been eyeball-to-eyeball with the Chinese in the Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO) sector since April 15, after Chinese soldiers pitched tents 19km inside the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control. Army sources have maintained that it is possible to cut off the supply lines of Chinese troops, but some in the military establishment believe it could escalate tensions along the disputed border.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military Buildup May 2, 2013

Chinese incursion may snowball into Kargil-like situation: BJP

BJP today cautioned that the Chinese incursions into Indian territory in Ladakh could snowball into a “Kargil-like” situation and urged the government to take the issue seriously instead of treating it as merely a local issue. “The Prime Minister has said the incursions in Ladakh are a localised issue. To say so is wrong. After all, what had happened in Kargil?” BJP Vice-President Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi told reporters. Incidentally, NDA was in power when the Kargil conflict took place in 1999. The then government was taken by surprise when the incursions from Pakistan were detected. Naqvi said India should give up its “confused and contradictory” policy towards China and take some serious measures.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Paramilitary May 1, 2013

Armed protests in Libya threatening safety in capital

Armed protests targeting Libya’s ministries and media in the capital this week have alarmed international observers who say deteriorating security conditions are becoming a matter of serious concern. Reporters without Borders said there was cause for “grave concern about recent violent attacks on Libyan journalists, whose safety conditions are deteriorating drastically” and called on the government to act. Gunmen in heavily armed vehicles remained in control of Libya’s Foreign Ministry for a fourth day on Wednesday, while the Justice Ministry was similarly surrounded on Tuesday and other institutions including the media have been targeted.

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Analysis, Crisis, Development, GeoPolitics April 30, 2013

Saxo Bank’s Lars Christensen: Political discontent will soon force the Eurozone’s inevitable break-up

A political rebellion is brewing, and many countries are close to breaking point. Beppe Grillo’s success in Italy was just the start – it could have been anyone standing with an anti-euro message. There’s a new anti-euro party in Germany gathering interest. And the anti-bailout True Finns in Finland are now the country’s third largest party. This will happen in every European country, and it’s all down to economic conditions. As long as you’re in the euro, you’ll be less and less competitive, and will get weaker and weaker against Germany.

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Border Incursion, Crisis, Flashpoints, Powerplay April 29, 2013

PLA banner in Ladakh says ‘You are in China’ but Govt insists no intrusion

With the Sino-India standoff in Ladakh now in it’s third week, Chinese are showing no signs of withdrawing from the territory they occupied after their incursion in Ladakh two weeks ago. On Monday news reports said Chinese troops have erected an additional tent in the Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) sector raising to five the number of such structures in the area. The Chinese troops have also deployed Molosser dogs to keep a vigil, according to latest reports on Monday from the site of incursion, 70 km south of Burtse in Ladakh division. A banner hoisted outside the camp reads in English “you are in Chinese side” with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) personnel maintaining a round-the-clock vigil, official sources said.

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Border Incursion, Crisis, Flashpoints, Military Buildup, Stratagem April 29, 2013

Himalayan tensions serve US’ rebalancing strategy

The current tensions on the disputed India-China border – known delightfully for its vagueness as the ‘Line of Actual Control’ – in the western sector of the Ladakh region bordering China’s Xinjiang Autonomous Region hark back to the scenario five decades ago when little skirmishes snowballed into a major outbreak of hostility. Fortunately, however, this time around there is a fundamental difference, too, which obviates the danger of a catastrophic slide to armed conflict. On a systemic plane, there are disquieting signs that the Indian establishment has not been pulling together on the country’s China policy and this disconnect, which has been suspected through the recent past, threatens to introduce its own disharmony.

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Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Paramilitary, Sectarian Violence April 29, 2013

Sectarian Strife: Iraq’s Sunnis gear up against the country’s army

Residents of a number of Sunni cities in Iraq have announced the formation of “military forces” to counter attack the Iraqi army and its crackdown against protesters calling for Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki – a Shiite – to step down, Al Arabiya reported on Thursday. The announcements come after Sunni tribesmen were called to arm following a government sponsored military raid on a Sunni Muslim anti-government protest at a camp in Hawija, near Kirkuk, on Tuesday. Dozens of people were killed and injured in the initial incident. It set off a wave of revenge attacks that hit five different Sunni-majority provinces, killing at least 110 people.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Protest April 26, 2013

Violence flares as protesters ‘besiege’ Spanish parliament

Police and protesters have clashed at an anti-government demo in the Spanish capital, Madrid, with bottles thrown and officers making baton charges. The government is set to reveal a new plan to turn the economy around. There were violent scenes close to the Spanish national parliament on Thursday, as unrest broke out at a demonstration by protesters calling for politicians to stand down. Some 1,000 activists gathered in front of a police barrier surrounding Madrid’s lower house of parliament, some attempting to pull the barricade down. A group threw bottles and firecrackers at police, who responded with baton charges.

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Border Incursion, Crisis, Flashpoints, Military April 25, 2013

Indian Army briefs govt on military options on Chinese intrusion

With China sticking to its stand that its troops have not violated the Line of Actual Control, Army has told the Government about various military options that can be exercised to deal with the situation arising out of the intrusion in Ladakh.

The Army has given its inputs on the incursion by Chinese troops to the National Security Advisor-headed China Study Group which includes the Secretaries of the Ministries of Defence, Home and External Affairs, government sources said here. The inputs given by the force are also about various options including using military aggressively in the situation, they said.

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Border Incursion, Crisis, Military, News April 22, 2013

Indian Army matches China man-for-man on the border

As the Army’s Military Intelligence (MI) and Military Operations (MO) directorates study the Chinese troop incursion into Indian territory at Daulat Beg Oldi, below the towering Karakoram Pass in Ladakh, military analysts are also scanning a newly-released Chinese document for information that might be of help.

Indian military planners who prepare for eventualities like the current PLA incursion spiraling out of control, perhaps even into actual fighting, focus less on total numbers than on the units and formations that can quickly come into action. The White Paper fully corroborates the Army’s estimates of Chinese formations on the Sino-Indian border.

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Analysis, Crisis, History, Military April 21, 2013

Regional Tensions Force Philippine Leaders To Consider Nuclear Weapons

Parallel moves by Washington and Beijing appear to have persuaded Pyongyang not to carry out its nuclear threat against South Korea, the United States and Japan. But unless the threat has been completely neutralized, President B. S. Aquino III may yet succeed in making the Philippines a potential target for North Korea or China.

While we had earlier feared that a North Korean missile could hit the Philippines purely by accident or mistake, in the future Pyongyang or even China could aim its missile directly at the Philippines, should it finally host American military bases all over again.

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Analysis, Crisis, Flashpoints, Military April 21, 2013

The Dragon Has Landed: What does the Chinese incursion into Kashmir mean?

On 15 April, 2013, several dozen soldiers of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) entered as deep as ten kilometers inside the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control in Daulat Beg in Ladakh (Jammu and Kashmir) and set up a camp there. The audacity of the Chinese operation is reflected from the fact that their ground troops were given cover and logistic help by two helicopters to enable them to set up a camp on the Indian territory. Why did the Chinese choose Daulat Beg? The Chinese have not forgotten that it was at this place where the Indians had set up its landing strip during the 1962 Sino-Indian War.

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Analysis, Crisis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, History, Risks April 17, 2013

De Borchgrave: Egypt Could Become the Next Iran

The only democracy Egypt has known in 5,000 years of recorded history lasted six years — from 1946, when the World War II British protectorate came to an end, until 1952 when Col. Gamal Abdel Nasser and his Free Officers movement dethroned and exiled King Farouk. Nasser’s coup was inspired by Egypt’s defeat in the first Arab-Israeli war of 1948. No more than 100 colonels, majors and captains were involved, including Anwar Sadat, who succeeded Nasser upon his death in 1970. Officially, Nasser and his Free Officers said they had taken over to wipe out corruption among their generals who, they charged, had led Egypt to its first defeat by Israel in 1948.

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Crisis, GeoPolitics April 15, 2013

Egypt in dangerous state of limbo

It was what secularists had feared would secure an Islamist state. After granting himself sweeping powers and pushing through a controversial new constitution, President Mohamed Morsi had been calling for parliamentary elections with haste. With the opposition set to boycott, Islamists were poised to dominate. But when a top court cancelled elections last month just weeks before elections were set, the president’s plans were quickly derailed and a more complex struggle reemerged.

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Crisis, News, Risks, Sectarian Violence April 12, 2013

Myanmar police struggle to adapt to post-junta era

After decades in the shadow of the military, Myanmar’s ragtag police force has found itself thrust onto the security frontline – and under fire for failing to stop a wave of religious unrest. Under the former junta that ruled the country also known as Burma for almost half a century, any sign of unrest was quickly quelled by soldiers.

But since a new reformist government took power two years ago, the job of maintaining order has been largely left to police who lack basic equipment and only have about a year of training. “The police were never well-equipped,” said an officer with 20 years in the force who did not want to be named.

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Crisis, Economy, GeoPolitics, Protest April 12, 2013

Santiago on high alert as 150 thousand Chilean students protest

The controversy which almost brought down the government of conservative President Sebastian Piñera promises to be probably the main issue of the coming presidential candidate. Thursday’s was the first joint protest this year by Confech, representing the majority of collegians, and the various organizations of high school students, with support from organized labor.

A crowd estimated by organizers at around 150,000 gathered in Santiago’s Plaza Italia and marched down the Alameda, the capital’s main thoroughfare.

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Crisis, Economy, GeoPolitics April 12, 2013

Cyprus Bailout Swells to 23 Billion Euros, Larger Than Cypriot Economy

Cyprus’ financial sector bailout has swollen in size, according to draft documents from the international creditors including the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Union.

Cyprus’ bailout has swollen some 35 percent in just a few weeks, from an initial estimate of 17 billion euros to 23 billion euros Thursday. Cyprus central bank spokeswoman Aliki Stylianou said that other funds will come in the form of higher taxes, privatization, and selling of gold reserves.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Intelligentsia April 8, 2013

Uganda could degenerate into violence next year – US report

Uganda is “at risk of violent instability” come next year (2014), a US Intelligence threat assessment report has stated. The report, that is released every four years after the US President is elected, by the National Intelligence Council, names Uganda among 14 other countries that risk becoming a failed state, given their potential for conflict and environmental evils. The US Intelligence threat assessment report also places Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo as two other countries in the region likely to suffer in the same manner.

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Crisis, Economy, GeoPolitics, Policy April 7, 2013

Euroserfdom++: “Portugual Mulls Paying Workers in T-Bills”

A person close to the government said it had mulled the idea of paying public employees and pensioners one month of their income in Treasury bills, forcing them, in effect, to lend the Treasury the money the court said it couldn’t cut from their paychecks. A government spokeswoman denied that the idea was being considered.

Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho said he would look for fresh spending cuts to keep Portugal’s €78 billion ($101 billion) international bailout program on track following a Constitutional Court decision that threw his government into crisis by striking down some of its planned austerity measures.

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Crisis, Economy, Protest April 4, 2013

Bread riots or bankruptcy: Egypt faces stark economic choices

It was a perilous time for Egypt. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) was demanding subsidy cuts in exchange for a loan Egypt’s leaders desperately wanted. So they complied, cutting subsidies on the bread, cooking fuel, and gasoline average citizens relied on to live.

Within hours, workers were pouring off the docks in the Suez Canal zone and Alexandria and out of the factories in the Nile Delta, and attacking symbols of the government everywhere – furious about the sudden rise in the price of daily staples. In Cairo’s Tahrir Square, angry youth tore up sidewalks to hurl stones at riot police when they ran out of Molotov cocktails

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Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Military Buildup April 3, 2013

Risky business: China continues military buildup near North Korean border as tanks, armor deploy

China continued moving tanks and armored vehicles and flying flights near North Korea this week as part of a military buildup in the northeastern part of the country that U.S. officials say is related to the crisis with North Korea. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troop and tank movements were reported in Daqing, located in northeastern Heilongjiang Province, and in the border city of Shenyang, in Liaoning Province. According to U.S. officials with access to intelligence reports, both intelligence and Internet reports from the region over the past week revealed the modest military movements in the border region that began in mid-March and are continuing.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics April 2, 2013

North Korea To Restart Nuclear Reactor, China On High Alert

North Korea’s latest provocative declaration has led China to place its military forces at “Level One” readiness – its highest threat level — and increased its military presence on the border with North Korea in response to the country’s declaration of a “state of war” and threats to conduct missile attacks against the U.S. and South Korea. Tensions have risen on the peninsula since North Korea conducted its third nuclear test last month, sparking a new round of UN-led sanctions.

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Analysis, Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Territorial Dispute March 28, 2013

China agencies press territorial claims while serving as a military proxy

When a two-engine Chinese turboprop darted over disputed islands in the East China Sea, the first foreign intrusion into Japanese airspace in more than 50 years, the People’s Liberation Army was able to truthfully profess its innocence.

The tiny turboprop belonged to China Marine Surveillance, a once-obscure cog in the vast bureaucracy that has become a kind of paramilitary force in Asian waters. A host of Chinese agencies with innocuous titles — the Maritime Safety Administration, the Fisheries Law Enforcement Command, the State Oceanic Administration — have become stealth warriors in Beijing’s campaign to press its territorial claims in Asian waters.

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Crisis, Economy, FUBAR, GeoPolitics March 27, 2013

Europe Reels In Shock As Politician Tells Truth That Cyprus Is The Model For Future Bailouts

If a gaffe is what happens when a politician accidentally tells the truth, what’s the word for when a politician deliberately tells the truth? Dutch finance minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the current head of the Eurogroup, held a formal, on-the-record joint interview with Reuters and the FT today, saying that the messy and chaotic Cyprus solution is a model for future bailouts. Those comments are now being walked back, because it’s generally not a good idea for high-ranking policymakers to say the kind of things which could precipitate bank runs across much of the Eurozone.

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Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Policy March 25, 2013

Currency Wars: ‘Race to Debase’ spurs central banks’ gold-buying spree

Today’s unbacked fiat currencies are at the root of an emerging global monetary problem. While the talk of “recovery” in recent months now populates headlines, the desperate actions of politicians and central bankers show the contrary.

There is a saying “the further back you look into the past, the more certain you can be about the future.” History has shown that currency debasement ALWAYS leads to inflation and ultimately hyperinflation. This happened to the Roman Empire, the Weimar Republic in Germany, Argentina and most recently Zimbabwe where inflation peaked at 7.96 billion percent.

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Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Hard Power, Policy, Powerplay March 23, 2013

ECB’s Draconian Measures To Restrict Cypriot Money Transfers

Large depositors face heavy losses and the Central Bank of Cyprus will be given new powers to shut down struggling banks under a last-ditch plan to prevent the island’s exit from the euro. Included in legislation drafted by the European Central Bank are draconian controls on capital, including unprecedented restrictions on debit card use and cash withdrawals. Cypriot MPs were meeting on Friday night in a final attempt to stop the ECB and eurozone from carrying out a threat to withdraw cash support from the country’s banks next Tuesday.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Paramilitary March 22, 2013

Muslim Brotherhood Sets Up ‘Brown Shirts’ to Enforce Rule

Protests against the Muslim Brotherhood continue to rock Egypt without a word being said from the White House. Now, the Brotherhood and allied Islamists are taking a cue from their Shiite counterparts in Tehran and have announced they are setting up a civilian force with the power to arrest those they deem to be criminals.

At around the same time, Jama’a al-Islamiya threatened to set up a pro-Brotherhood militia to “protect private and public property and counter the aggression on innocent citizens.”

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Human Rights March 22, 2013

Mobs roam streets of riot-hit Myanmar town

Parts of Meiktila, in central Myanmar, have been reduced to ashes in the most serious Buddhist-Muslim clashes to hit the country since last year, with the authorities struggling to bring the situation under control.

The violence comes as Myanmar struggles with serious tensions between Muslims and Buddhists that have marred international optimism over dramatic political reforms since the end of military rule two years ago.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Military, Protest March 22, 2013

Muslim Brotherhood and Egypt’s military: On collision course?

The possibility of armed militias and vigilante groups run by the Muslim Brotherhood and other hard-line Islamist groups has raised the spectre of a possible confrontation between such militias and the military.

Already the “power-of-attorney” drive calling on the army to replace the Muslim Brotherhood government, conducted against a backdrop of sharply escalating political tension, police strikes, rioting and angry protest demonstrations in many cities, fuel shortages, rising prices and the clear inability of the current government to cope with on-going crises have caused strains between the army and Islamist groups.

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Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints March 22, 2013

Cyprus Protesters Confront Police as Anastasiades Seeks Deal

Cypriot police scuffled with protesters, including employees of Cyprus Popular Bank Pcl, outside Parliament as President Nicos Anastasiades maneuvered at home and in Russia to stave off financial collapse.

Seeking to unlock an international bailout, the Cypriot central bank proposed a bill to overhaul the banking system that would allow Cyprus Popular, the country’s second-largest lender, to avoid a “catastrophic” bankruptcy and protect insured deposits to an amount of 100,000 euros ($129,000).

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Black Market, Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints March 21, 2013

Euro Beware: The Real Threat May Be Bitcoin, The Online “Crypto-Currency”

With all its other problems, the euro is also getting unexpected — and “underground” — competition from a new virtual currency. It’s called the bitcoin, and in case you haven’t heard, it is the most ambitious (and to-date, successful) attempt to create a new online currency, generated by the calculations of thousands of computers. Some say it amounts to a kind of anarchic money.

This week, as the euro crisis has reached Cyprus, the bitcoin (BTC) marked a record high on the largest online exchange, bitcoin.de. The exchange rate has approached 50 euros, more than doubling the value of the virtual currency within four weeks.

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Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Policy March 21, 2013

Could Cyprus’s gold reserves play a part in the crisis?

The Cyprus bailout proposal made by the Eurogroup is both economically and politically absurd. But what if the real reason behind the whole Cyprus crisis is the desire to confiscate the country’s gold?

The European Union, the IMF and the ECB are pushing Cyprus into bankruptcy while risking a contagion effect that could lead to the meltdown of the eurozone. European leaders have already bailed out Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy. Why is the Cyprus bailout so special? Why do the European leaders prefer to push the country into bankruptcy and raid the Cypriot bank accounts instead of saving it?

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Crisis, Economy, GeoPolitics, Powerplay March 21, 2013

EC Threatens Cyprus with Bank Collapse and Default

Banks in Cyprus will not resume work until the country accepts a bailout plan to rescue the local financial market, stated a European Commission spokesperson. In the statement, the official in effect said that the EC supports the position of Germany, which has requested the Cypriot government to stop financing banks by Friday. “At present, the European Central Bank is supplying half the financial resources for the system in Cyprus. If the ECB flow is shut down, banks in Cyprus will default,” added the EC spokesperson.

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Crisis, Economy, Rigging, Uprising March 21, 2013

Tensions run high as Egypt trials bread rationing plan

Egypt ministers announced controversial plans to introduce a smart-card system that limits the amout of subsidized bread citizens can buy. The government would start rationing “after two months,” Supply Minister Bassem Ouda told Reuters earlier this week. Besides cutting subsidies, the severe economic crisis has forced the Islamist-led government to introduce rationing. Tension is already high in Egypt with the shortage of fuel, and economists have warned that restrictions on bread sales could cause a “revolution of the hungry.”

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Crisis, Economy, GeoPolitics, Resources March 21, 2013

Desperate for bailout, Cyprus plays risky geopolitical game

As it tries to play Russia off against Europe to salvage its economy, Cyprus has embarked on a high-stakes poker game that could see almost everyone lose. Its banks shattered by exposure to Greek debt, the island state urgently needs a way of bailing out its financial system. Cypriot policymakers hope they can begin to monetise as yet undeveloped offshore gas fields and position themselves as a vital source of energy for Europe. However, such income is still years away and delusions of becoming the Qatar of the eastern Mediterranean in the 2020s may prompt Cyprus to overplay its hand now.

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Analysis, Crisis, Flashpoints, Uprising March 19, 2013

The Lesson’s of Saudi Arabia’s Silent Revolution

A lot of people in Europe, especially the French, cheered heedlessly when the Arab Spring took off in 2011. But then came the 70,000 dead from the Syrian war; the proliferation of terrorism in Libya and Mali; the assassination of the main Tunisian opposition leader Chokri Belaid in a country where there is actually less freedom than before; and of course, Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, knee deep in economic and social chaos.
The Arab Spring of these secular republics wasn’t as positive and peaceful as many had expected.

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Analysis, Crisis, Economy, GeoPolitics, Policy March 19, 2013

How German fears of underwriting Russian oligarchs pushed Cyprus to crisis

German politicians and many of their European colleagues suspect Cyprus to be a tax haven and a money-laundering site for Russian oligarchs. Of the 68 billion euros stored in Cypriot bank accounts, around 20 billion ($26 billion) belong to Russian account holders. A report compiled last year by the German secret service, the Bundesnachrichtendienst, claims to have found evidence that Cypriot banks or Russian bank branches based in Cyprus are used to launder illegal money.

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Analysis, Crisis, Economy March 19, 2013

Cyprus savers could just be the first to have bank accounts raided

Although not unseen before – Italy imposed a one-off 0.6 percent bank account tax in 1992 — it is the first time it has been proposed since the eurozone debt crisis began.

Cyprus is the fourth eurozone nation to fall victim to the crisis, which has already resulted in enormous EU/IMF bailout packages for Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Eurozone finance ministers have suggested changes to the bank levy terms to protect the smallest savers.

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Analysis, Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Policy March 18, 2013

Geopolitical Dynamite: Tomorrow, Cyprus could vote to leave the euro

The bailout format is therefore a gamble on several levels. Most importantly, massive questions still linger over the precedent this sets. If Cypriot depositors are forced to pay today, why not Spanish ones tomorrow? People queuing up in massive numbers outside ATM machines is always an incredibly scary sight wherever you are and given the anger in Cyprus, we just don’t know how people will react when banks open again (unclear when, the Cypriot government may declare both Tuesday and Wednesday bank holidays as well). But fears of deposit-led contagion to other parts of the eurozone should definitely not be be overstated.

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Crisis, Diplomacy, GeoPolitics March 18, 2013

Tensions increase in Azerbaijani-Turkish relations

The relations between two regional allies, Turkey and Azerbaijan, are in a state of crisis once again. The Azerbaijani authorities are indignant over Turkey’s initiative to establish an air route with Armenia.

According to media, the Turkish air company Bora Jet is going to start flights to the Armenian capital, Yerevan. Azerbaijan believes that the Turkish government has something to do with the idea. The fact that Turkish President Abdullah Gul immediately congratulated Armenian counterpart Serzh Sarsgyan on his victory at the presidential elections was also a very unpleasant surprise for Azerbaijan.

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Crisis, Economy, FUBAR, GeoPolitics, Policy March 18, 2013

Cyprus President Tries To Calm Public After Anger Over Taxing Scheme For Bailout

The deal reached Saturday imposes a one-time levy of 6.75 percent on all deposits under 100,000 euros and a 9.9 percent levy above that amount. The levy is expected to raise 5.8 billion euros. Cyprus’ bailout follows those for Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain’s banking sector, but it is the first time eurozone states and the IMF have dipped into people’s savings to pay for a bailout.

The deal has met with widespread anger in Cyprus, a run on bank deposits over the weekend and fears that the public unease might spread to other at-risk EU countries such as Spain and Italy.

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Crisis, Regime Change March 16, 2013

North Korea: Kim Jong Un targeted in assassination attempt, South Korean intelligence says

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was recently the target of an assassination attempt, South Korean intelligence has said.

The London Telegraph reported that the alleged murder plot may have been the work of a faction loyal to Kim Yong Chol, a four-star general demoted last year before being restored to his previous rank and rehabilitated. The Telegraph cited the Joong Ang Ilbo newspaper as reporting that an exchange of gunfire in Pyongyang last November may have signaled the attempt.

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Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints, Uprising March 15, 2013

‘Arab Spring’ winds blow on Algeria from desert

Thousands of unemployed Algerians protested on Thursday in the southern town of Ouargla, near the country’s most important oilfield, to demand jobs and an end to lawsuits against them, sources said.

“We are demanding the right to work and an end to the lawsuits against the jobless,” Abdelmalek Aibek, a representative of the town’s unemployed residents, said by phone. “There are thousands of us gathered in the square outside the town hall,” he said, adding that the protesters, “people out of work, but also trade unionists and human rights activists… have come from different locations.”

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Crisis, Economy, GeoPolitics March 8, 2013

The U.S. can’t afford a Chinese economic collapse

Is China about to collapse? That question has been front and center in the past weeks as the country completes its leadership transition and after the exposure of its various real estate bubbles during a widely watched 60 Minutes exposé this past weekend.

Concerns about soaring property prices throughout China are hardly new, but they have been given added weight by the government itself. Recognizing that a rapid implosion of the property market would disrupt economic growth, the central government recently announced far-reaching measures designed to dent the rampant speculation.

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Analysis, Crisis, GeoPolitics, Risks March 8, 2013

Arc of Crisis 2.0?

The Indian Ocean remains a tumultuous zone, where a lack of governance along its shores has spawned a series of security chasms offshore. This spillover effect has been most apparent off the Horn of Africa and the Gulf of Aden, where rampant piracy has prompted a continuous rotation of multinational naval taskforces. Meanwhile, an upsurge in Islamic extremism in countries such as Pakistan and Somalia has heightened regional anxiety over maritime terrorism and seaborne infiltration.

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Analysis, Crisis, Diplomacy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics March 7, 2013

Taiwan’s Regional Security Profile Grows

Taipei was slowly realizing — too slowly, perhaps — that President Ma’s “goodwill” notwithstanding, Beijing has continued to threaten the island with more than 1,600 short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, and refuses to take the military option off the table as a means of bringing about “reunification.” Despite the diplomatic truce, Beijing has relentlessly prevented Taiwan from playing the role that a modern, democratic country of 23 million people should be entitled to play within the international community.

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Analysis, Crisis, Protest March 5, 2013

More Egyptian governorates call on army to ‘manage state’

Around a dozen people went to the notary in Suez governorate on Monday morning to hand in signatures delegating the army to manage the state. People in three different governorates have adopted the idea of giving signatures to notaries to demand that the army runs the nation. Some of those who went to the notary in Suez called on former presidential candidate Khaled Ali to manage the state. The notary has accepted the signatures demanding the army’s intervention but refused the petition calling on Ali to run the nation, stating that delegations to legal entities can be accepted but not to individuals.

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Analysis, Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints, Risks March 5, 2013

Will China’s Consumer Boom Spark U.S. Shortages?

Chinese and Indian consumers are living well and eating well. And that could spark a global crisis. The consumer boom in China and India will touch off global inflation and could lead to food and water riots if investment, policy, and technology don’t keep pace.

Without smart, quick action by the private sector and government alike, surging Chinese and Indian demand for premium foods will lead to commodity volatility, runaway food prices, and worldwide water shortages as the “boomerang effect” brings the unexpected impact of Asian growth to U.S. shores. That’s the conclusion of research by The Boston Consulting Group (BCG). The main findings are presented in “The Boomerang Effect,” a Perspective that is being released today

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Uprising March 5, 2013

Unrest in Egyptian city draws in the military and raises warning of breakdown of order

Clashes between protesters and the police in the restive Egyptian city of Port Said that entered their second day Monday have dragged in the military to a dramatic extent into the nation’s turmoil.

At times in the violence, frictions have arisen between the police that were battling protesters and army forces that tried to break up the fighting. Troops in between the two sides were overwhelmed by police tear gas, one army colonel was wounded by live fire, and troops even opened fire over the heads of police, bringing cheers from protesters.

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Analysis, Crisis, Flashpoints, Military, Protest March 4, 2013

Arab Spring in Bangladesh: Paramilitary force deployed to stop unrest, 42 dead

Bangladesh today deployed paramilitary border guards to beef up security after a top Islamist opposition leader was sentenced to death, sparking nationwide riots that killed at least 42 people.

The violence broke out yesterday after 73-year-old Delwar Hossain Sayedee, vice-president of the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), was sentenced to death by International Crimes Tribunal after he was found guilty of eight counts out of 20 involving rape, mass killings and atrocities during the nine-month freedom war against Pakistan in 1971.

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Crisis, Economy, Protest March 4, 2013

Nearly 1m protesters stage rally against austerity in Portugal

Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets of Lisbon and other Portuguese cities on Saturday to protest against the government’s austerity measures aimed at rescuing the debt-hit eurozone nation. The rallies were organised by a non-political movement which claimed 500,000 marched in the country’s capital and another 400,000 in the main northern city of Porto. There have been no official estimates of the crowds. But the mood of the crowd was clearly political, calling for new elections with banners declaring “Portugal to the polls!” and “If you fall asleep in a democracy, you wake up in a dictatorship”.

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Crisis, Economy, Risks March 4, 2013

Spain’s army of jobless surpasses 5 million mark

The number of people out of work in Spain has risen to more than 5 million people for the first time. The government in Madrid said there was no quick fix, with the economy expected to contract further this year. Registered unemployment in Spain surpassed the five-million mark in February, the country’s Labor Ministry said Monday. It said joblessness now affected 5.04 million people, up some 59,000 from the levels recorded in January. The ministry said many companies across the southern European nation continued to lay off staff because of unfavorable business prospects.

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Crisis, Risks February 28, 2013

Panic in Greek pharmacies as hundreds of medicines run short

Greece is facing a serious shortage of medicines amid claims that pharmaceutical multinationals have halted shipments to the country because of the economic crisis and concerns that the drugs will be exported by middlemen because prices are higher in other European countries.

Hundreds of drugs are in short supply and the situation is getting worse, according to the Greek drug regulator. The government has drawn up a list of more than 50 pharmaceutical companies it accuses of halting or planning to halt supplies because of low prices in the country.Chemists in Athens describe chaotic scenes with desperate customers going from pharmacy to pharmacy to look for prescription drugs that hospitals could no longer dispense.

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Crisis, Development, News, Protest February 28, 2013

Tear Down This Wall – Trapped Inside The New Barricades Of A Divided Cairo

It just happened one day, without prior notice. On Jan. 26, Moheddin Marwan lowered the iron curtain of his grocery store at lunchtime. When he came back to work the next day, he just stood there petrified, as motionless as the new barricade that blocked the access to his shop.

Stacked up like Lego bricks, the concrete blocks literally cut Cairo’s Sheikh-Reyhan Street in two – erected by authorities to protect official buildings from protesters. As if the center of the city wasn’t disfigured enough after two years of clashes between protesters and police forces.

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Analysis, Crisis, Flashpoints February 26, 2013

How will India respond to civil war in Pakistan?

In 1971, India intervened militarily on behalf of Bengalis in the civil war in East Pakistan, dividing the country in two and helping to create Bangladesh. In 2013, prospects of another civil war in Pakistan — this time one that pits radical Islamists against the secular but authoritarian military — have led once again to questions about what India would do. What would trigger Indian intervention, and who would India support?

In the context of a civil war between Islamists and the army in Pakistan, it is hard to imagine Pakistani refugees streaming into India and triggering intervention as the Bengalis did in 1971.

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Analysis, Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, FUBAR, GeoPolitics February 24, 2013

Japan’s PM Abe Shinzo makes moves to return Japan to militaristic state with constitutional changes

Japanese PM Shinzo Abe is pushing ahead with sweeping changes to the constitution, despite concerns that they signal a return to Japan’s inward-looking, militaristic regime of the early years of the 1900s. “My guess is that is that their view of Japan is that it should be more like pre-war Japan of the early 1930s,” said Masako Kamiya, a professor of law at Gakushuin University. “I believe there are a number of LDP members who share the view that it was not such a bad time, that there were some good things in that era,” she added.

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Black Market, Crisis, GeoPolitics, Resources February 19, 2013

EU makes blood diamonds for bloody democracy offer to Zimbabwe

EU countries have said Zimbabwe can start selling diamonds and gold in Europe if it holds democratic elections. The deal – between Belgium, the home of the world’s largest diamond exchange, and the UK, the former colonial power in Zimbabwe – says the Zimbabwe Mining Development Corporation (ZDMC) will be taken off the EU’s blacklist one month after the vote, expected in July. Belgian foreign minister Didier Reynders told press in Brussels on Monday (18 February) that ZDMC will get off the hook automatically, unless all 27 EU countries agree “the elections have not been peaceful, transparent, credible or they have reasonable grounds to believe ZMDC has been involved in activities undermining democracy during the election.”

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Conflict, Crisis, GeoPolitics, History, Strategic Interests February 18, 2013

Kashmir: The Geopolitical Hotspot That Could Lead To A Thermonuclear War

High in the Karakoram, the stubborn armies of India and Pakistan have faced off for 19 years on the Siachen Glacier, the world’s highest battleground and a flash point in the deadly dispute over Kashmir. In this exclusive report, an American writer and photographer spend two months inside the ultimate no-man’s-land, witnessing the human and environmental devastation of a conflict without end. Ten years ago, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency concluded that Kashmir was emerging as the most likely place on earth for a nuclear war to break out.

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Crisis, Development, Diplomacy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Stratagem February 15, 2013

China muscles US in Pacific

WITHIN two decades the United States will be forced out of the western Pacific, says a senior Chinese military officer, amid concerns that increasingly militarised great-power rivalry could lead to war.

Senior Colonel Liu Mingfu, at the People’s Liberation Army’s National Defence University, told Fairfax Media this week that American strategic influence would be confined ”east of the Pacific midline” as it is displaced by Chinese power throughout east Asia, including Australia. Colonel Liu’s interpretation of one facet of what the new Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, calls ”a new type of great-power relationship” adds to the uncertainty and anxiety surrounding China’s strategic ambitions.

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Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics February 15, 2013

Another Regional War in the Wings

In the conflict zone stretching from Syria to Afghanistan lies another war waiting to re-emerge: Nagorno-Karabakh. This dispute is likely to occupy President Obama’s new foreign-policy team whether they want it or not.

Two decades ago the newly independent states of Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a bitter war over this remote area of mountains and valleys. Armenia won the war, but nobody has achieved peace. A fragile ceasefire signed in 1994 remains the only tangible achievement of diplomacy. Since then, a mediation effort led by Washington, Moscow and Paris has sought a solution.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Military Buildup February 15, 2013

Korean Brinksmanship: Seoul to deploy missiles covering whole of NK

South Korea is reinforcing its defence against North Korea including executing a new warfare plan against its weapons of mass destruction and deploying new cruise missiles capable of striking any North Korean location, officials said Wednesday.

The Defence Ministry said it would unveil the new long-range missiles within the week. “We have developed and deployed a cruise missile system with world-class precision and destructive force that can strike any location in North Korea,” Defence Ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Military, News February 13, 2013

S. Korea deploys cruise missiles on N. Korean border

South Korea has deployed cruise missiles on the North Korean border, missiles that can hit targets anywhere in North Korea. This came in a statement for journalists by an official of the South Korean Defence Ministry, Kim Min Sok.

According to him, Seoul will also speed up the development of ballistic missiles with an effective range of 800 kilometres and will set up a national missile defence system. The statement came in the wake of Pyongyang’s underground nuclear test on the February 12. North Korea’s test has triggered bitter criticism from several countries, as well as the UN Security Council.

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Crisis, Military February 8, 2013

China’s one-child policy creates wimpy military recruits, deserters

The ratio among all military personnel of only children rose from about 20 percent in 1996 to more than 70 percent in 2006.

These pampered children began quitting the military for all sorts of frivolous reasons. “I don’t want to get a tan” and “I hate military quarters with no air conditioning” were among excuses cited. In March 2011, Xuexi Shibao (Study Times), the organ of the Central Party School that teaches party ideology, ran an article that said, “Soldiers from the one-child generation are wimps who have absolutely no fighting spirit.”

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Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Risks February 6, 2013

China Navy frigate locked weapons radar on Japanese destroyer

On Tuesday, Japan’s defense ministry said it confirmed that the Chinese navy frigate aimed its weapons-targeting radar at the Japanese vessel. It also said a Japanese military helicopter was targeted with similar radar earlier last month.

Since late last year, China has regularly sent government ships to patrol the Japanese-administered islands, in what observers say is an effort to establish de facto control of the area. Both sides also have scrambled fighter jets to the islands, raising fears of an all-out military conflict.

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Crisis, GeoPolitics, Human Rights, Risks February 6, 2013

‘Yemen on brink of political collapse’

Yemeni Nobel peace laureate Tawakkul Karman warned in an interview with AFP that her country’s transition process is on the brink of collapse and demanded ex-president Ali Abdullah Saleh be banned from politics.

The activist, who was a leading figure during the youth uprising in Yemen in 2011, also claimed that President Abdrabuh Mansur Hadi is unable to implement his plans to reshape Yemen’s security forces because he does not control the army.

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Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Risks February 5, 2013

Regional war a risk as China focuses on the home front

Former Australian foreign minister Gareth Evans, writing for Project Syndicate, notes: “Japan is fuelling nationalist sentiment in China and South Korea, and making even more dangerous the already volatile territorial disputes in the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan.” Focusing on Tokyo’s role in the deteriorating strategic environment, he says: “Japan is again alienating its neighbours and driving its friends to despair over the issue of accepting responsibility for its wartime aggression and atrocities.”

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Crisis, Economy, Risks February 5, 2013

Argentina freezes prices to halt inflation

Argentina has announced a two-month price freeze on supermarket products in an effort to stop spiraling inflation.

The price freeze applies to every product in all of the country’s largest supermarkets – a group including Walmart, Carrefour, Coto, Jumbo, Disco and other large chains. The companies’ trade group, representing 70 per cent of the Argentine supermarket sector, reached the accord with Commerce Secretary Guillermo Moreno, the government’s news agency Telam reported. The commerce ministry wants consumers to keep receipts and complain to a hotline about any price hikes they see before April 1.

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Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints, Risks February 4, 2013

Rise of China and India could spark UK ‘unrest’

A report published by the Ministry of Defence (mod) said many western economies could stall and decline in the face of the growing economic strength of countries like China and India. Such a situation may spark long periods of recession and growing disaffection within the UK, according to the report looking at trends in south Asia until 2040. It added: “This could subsequently lead to increased incidents of internal unrest, a rise of nationalistic groups and a demand for protectionist economic and defence policies.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Military February 4, 2013

Pakistan Tribes Turn Against Army

“We demand an immediate end to the military operation in Khyber Agency because it has not brought any results during the past three years,” says Iqbal Afridi from the Pakistan Tehreek Insaf party. “The military operations are killing the local population while the militants remained unharmed.”

Thousands of local tribal people, including students, civil society members and leaders of political parties joined the bereaved families in the protest against the army. “The military operations have brought lives of the eight million population in FATA to a standstill,” Afridi said. “The seven tribal agencies have remained under curfew and the population has become completely idle.”

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Analysis, Crisis, Diplomacy, Flashpoints, Military January 31, 2013

China’s New Militancy And The PLA’s Influence

In the past, the military’s war talk contrasted with soothing words from senior civilian leaders. Now, with Xi, the aggressive comments from flag officers are consistent with what he, as top leader, is saying. Worse, as the Financial Times notes, Xi’s words of war are now “being bundled” with his rhetoric, which seems calculated to “fan nationalism.”

In this environment, Chinese military officers can get away with advocating “short, sharp wars” and talking about the need to “strike first.” Their boldness suggests, as some privately say, that General Secretary Xi is associating with generals and admirals who think war with the U.S. might be a good idea.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Protest January 31, 2013

Japan ex-minister warns of Okinawa unrest, secession

Shozaburo Jimi, minister in charge of financial services and postal reform, under the last government, suggested Wednesday that residents of the sub-tropical island chain may also push for secession from Japan.

“Okinawa has long had a history of independence movements and movements for self-governance. I hope those things will not blaze up,” he told local media. “There’s a possibility that [Okinawa] will say it will become an independent state,” Jimi said, according to Kyodo News. “Domestic guerilla [struggles] could occur as a result of separatist movements,” and “terrorist bombings could occur in Tokyo, depending on how the state handles” the issue, said Jimi.

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Crisis, Economy, GeoPolitics January 29, 2013

Sacrebleu! Damage control after France’s job czar claims the country is ‘bankrupt’

France’s job czar embarrassed Socialist Party President Francois Hollande with weekend claims the country is “totally bankrupt,” according to various media. But now French politicos are fighting back, calling Labor Minister Michel Sapin’s depiction of the nation’s fiscal health as inappropriate, and untrue. “France is a truly solvent country, France is a truly credible country,” said Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici, in a BBC report. Mr. Sapin made his bankruptcy remarks during a Jan. 27 radio address, during which he spoke of the need for an austerity plan. “It is a totally bankrupt state,” Mr. Sapin said then, according to a report in The Independent. “That is why we had to put a deficit reduction plan in place, and nothing should make us turn away from that objective.”

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Analysis, Crisis January 29, 2013

A Glimpse into a Mysterious African Dictatorship: Is Eritrea on the Verge?

Eritrea made a rare foray into international headlines on Monday, Jan. 21, as news agencies and social-media sites disseminated speculation of a coup attempt. Reliable information on events in Asmara is hard to come by, however, with the tiny East African nation being one of the world’s least open societies and allowing no independent journalists to operate.

One signal that all was not well in the Eritrean capital, however, was the fact that the state television service, which is broadcast from inside the headquarters of the Ministry of Information, went off the air for the first time since its creation in 1993.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Paramilitary January 28, 2013

In Mexico, self-defence squads are springing up against drug-fueled violence

Vigilantes patrol a dozen or more towns in rural Mexico, the unauthorized but often tolerated edge of a growing movement toward armed citizen self-defence squads across the country.

“The situation Mexico is experiencing, the crime, is what has given the communities the legitimacy to say, ‘We will assume the tasks that the government has not been able to fulfil,’” said rights activist Roman Hernandez, whose group Tlachinollan has worked with the community forces.

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Crisis, Protest January 28, 2013

Mursi declares state of emergency after street clashes kill 49

Egyptian President Mohammad Mursi declared a month-long state of emergency Sunday in three cities along the SuezCanal that have been the focus of anti-government violence that has killed dozens of people over the past four days. Seven people were shot dead and hundreds were injured in Port Said Sunday during the funerals of 33 protesters killed at the weekend. A total of 49 people have been killed in demonstrations around the country since Thursday and Mursi’s opponents have called for more protests Monday.

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Crisis, Economy, GeoPolitics, Policy January 25, 2013

Britain Could Be on Path to EU Exit

British Prime Minister David Cameron has begun a process that could lead to Britain’s exit from the European Union – a result analysts say could devastate the country’s economy.

Britain’s economy relies on trade and financial services. The free flow of goods and services with the European continent has been a boon, but more and more Britons see the European Union as an unwelcome infringement on their sovereignty. That has pushed Prime Minister Cameron to promise a re-negotiation of Britain’s ties to the EU and then a referendum within five years, if he is re-elected in the middle of the process.

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Crisis, Economy, Risks January 25, 2013

Honduras on brink of bankruptcy, suspends public services

Street surveillance cameras in one of the world’s most dangerous cities have been turned off because the government of Honduras has not paid millions of pounds it owes. The operator which runs them in the capital Tegucigalpa is now threatening to suspend police radio services as well. Teachers have been demonstrating almost every day as they have not been paid in six months, while doctors complain about the shortage of essential medicines, gauze, needles and latex gloves.

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Crisis, Economy, FUBAR, GeoPolitics January 18, 2013

Welcome to the global currency war: QE3-Ad Infinitum

Mark your calendars. Today is the day the global currency war broke out into the open. This after the Bank of Japan announced it would ramp up its monetary policy stimulus efforts — on an unlimited basis — until it achieves a 2% inflation target.

Now, all three major central banks have committed to open ended easing.

As central banks ramp up one last time, the end game for all this — given the fiscal austerity, budget fights, and policy turmoil just ahead — is higher inflation combined with economic stagnation.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics January 18, 2013

Venezuela military to play central power broker

In a country riven by political strife, Venezuela’s military often has served as the arbiter of power. It has launched coups and frustrated them and dispatched soldiers to guarantee stability, distributing food, fighting crime and securing oil fields.

Now with President Hugo Chavez battling for his life, the stance of the 134,000-strong armed forces again will be crucial. Divisions within the military have clouded attempts to determine who it might support among Chavez loyalists or if it would side with the opposition.

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Crisis, GeoPolitics, Regime Change January 17, 2013

Pakistan’s crisis could end in a military coup as arrest warrant issued for Prime Minister

Experts are not ruling out the possibility of a military takeover in Pakistan after the country’s top court ordered the arrest of the PM. Anti-government protesters continue with their sit-in outside parliament.

An anti-government protest in Islamabad enters its third day as tens of thousands of people demand the resignation of the Pakistan People’s Party’s (PPP) government and that an “impartial,” interim government backed by Pakistan’s powerful army and newly-independent judiciary be formed.

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Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints January 8, 2013

Zambia President Fears Looming Food Riots May Remove Him From Power

President Michael Sata fears that the continued increase of food commodity prices would spark national-wide riots against his government. Speaking today at a State House when he swore in Julius Shawa as new permanent secretary at the minister of Communication and Transport, President Sata said food riots chased first Republican president Kenneth Kaunda and he did not want to see the situation repeated during his reign.

“I will be meeting with the millers from here. We can not continue to buy a bag of maize at K60, 000 and how can the millers sale at K55, 00 a 50kg bag? The people will rise against us. If you remember the food riots chased Kaunda from government and I don’t want to see food riots in this country,” he said.

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Crisis, Economy January 8, 2013

U.S. may default on its debt half a month earlier than expected, new analysis shows

The U.S. government may default on its debt as soon as Feb. 15, a half-month earlier than widely expected, according to a new analysisadding urgency to the debate over how to raise the federal debt ceiling.

The analysis by the Bipartisan Policy Center says that the government will be unable to pay all its bills starting sometime between Feb. 15 and March 1.The government hit the $16.4 trillion statutory debt limit on Dec. 31 , but the Treasury Department is able to undertake a number of accounting schemes to delay when the government runs into funding problems.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, Military, Territorial Dispute January 7, 2013

Japan scrambles eight fighter jets to intercept Chinese plane near Diaoyus

Japan scrambled fighter jets on Saturday to head off a Chinese state-owned plane that flew near the disputed Diaoyu islands, which Japan calls the Senkakus, a Japanese Defence Ministry spokesman said. Japanese jets were mobilised after a Chinese maritime aircraft ventured 120 kilometres north of islands at about noon, the spokesman said. The Chinese Y-12 twin-turboprop later left the zone without entering Japanese airspace, he added. It was the first time Japanese fighters had been scrambled this year to counter Chinese aircraft approaching the islands, the spokesman said.

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Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints, Risks January 2, 2013

Muslim Brotherhood may pay price for currency fall – Importers, shopkeepers see sharp inflation

Life in Egypt is about to get harder for ordinary people who will bear the brunt of inflation caused by a decline in the value of their currency. As elections approach, President Mohamed Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood may pay a political price. After a 3.2 percent slide in the Egyptian pound’s value against the dollar this week, some importers and shopkeepers say they are factoring in an even bigger decline and that the uncertainty will be reflected in steep price rises.

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Crisis, Economy, Risks January 2, 2013

Analyst: Chances of U.S. Default Now 20%

A Washington analyst said that the U.S. government now has a one-in-five chance of defaulting on its debt, citing the acrimonious debate in Washington over resolving the fiscal cliff.

“The next fiscal cliff is going to be more toxic and could end with an almost unthinkable conclusion: a technical default on the U.S. debt,” wrote Chris Krueger, a senior political analyst at Guggenheim Partners’ Washington Research Group. “We are raising our odds of a debt default from 10% to 20%.

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Crisis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Regime Change, Risks January 1, 2013

Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood ‘Arab Spring’ Faction Detained in UAE

The United Arab Emirates has arrested an “Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood cell” that trained local Islamists in how to overthrow Arab governments, a Sharjah-based newspaper reported on Tuesday, citing an unnamed source familiar with the investigation.

The oil-rich Gulf state – of which Sharjah is one part – has previously voiced strong distrust of the Islamist political movement which after long years of being banned took power in free elections in Egypt last year. The cell, of “more than 10 people”, had a defined organisational structure and was recruiting Egyptians in the UAE to join, al-Khaleej newspaper reported.

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Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Military December 29, 2012

Breakdown On Yemen: A Year of Assassinations, Explosions and Drones

After a long year of revolution in Yemen, former President Ali Abdullah Saleh was “toppled” and replaced by President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi on February 27, 2012, through a one-man-election. Nevertheless, Yemen witnessed a year of instability and violence. The year 2012 was a year of unprecedented numbers of suicide bombs, explosive cars, targeted killings, explosions of gas pipelines and electricity cables, besides the constant and frequent US drone attacks.

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Conflict, Crisis, Risks December 29, 2012

Syria’s war creates concern for its neighbor

The effects on Jordan’s economy and on its royal family’s always-precarious grip on power could be serious, especially now, as protests unfurl in a country outraged by the government’s decision to chop fuel subsidies – a necessary action for it to secure $2 billion (1.5 billion euros) in loans from the International Monetary Fund.

“Even before Syria’s revolution, Jordan was facing some serious headwind – a political challenge to the monarchy, an economic strain on resources and a strain of the social fabric,” says Lara Setrakian, a Middle East analyst and founder of the news startup SyriaDeeply.org. “The ripple effects of Syria’s conflict have made all of those problems worse.”

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Crisis, Economy, GeoPolitics December 27, 2012

IMF Concerned about Possible German Austerity

Germany should move slower on fiscal consolidation and savings to counteract the economic effects of austerity programs currently throttling growth in Southern Europe, argues Christine Lagarde. Still, the IMF chief remains cautiously optimistic about the euro-zone’s economic prospects for the next year.

International Monetary Fund head Christine Lagarde has said that Germany should not be looking at measures aimed at consolidating its finances, apparently in concern over a SPIEGEL report indicating that the German Finance Ministry is working on a far-reaching package of spending cuts and tax hikes for introduction

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Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints December 24, 2012

Deadly wave of looting hits Argentina

Looters have broken into supermarkets in several Argentine cities, leaving at least two people dead in the ensuing chaos and stirring memories of the country’s devastating economic crisis 11 years ago.

The government and labour unions blamed each other for the Thursday and Friday violence, which came amid a growing wave of anger with President Cristina Kirchner’s administration over rising crime and economic uncertainty.

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Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints, Protest December 21, 2012

Argentine gov’t sends police to suppress massive protests

Argentine President Cristina Fernandez faced another protest Wednesday led by a union boss who used to be one of her most loyal supporters.

Thousands of people marched from the capital’s iconic obelisk to the Plaza de Mayo main square in front of the presidential palace demanding pay raises and a solution to Argentina’s spiraling inflation. The demonstration was called by Hugo Moyano, the head of the powerful General Labor Confederation union.

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