Leviathan gas field, which is located in the Mediterranean Sea in 135km from the Israeli Haifa, was discovered in 2010 by the American Noble Energy Company, which concluded contract with Israeli government back in 2008 on initiating joint gas and oil exploration in the Mediterranean. The gas reserves found in 2010 can be considered rather impressive as, according to Noble Energy the total natural gas reserves in this field are estimated up to 450 billion m3 which makes it one of the biggest gas fields in the world. The importance of Leviathan for Israel is conditioned by the fact that it will exempt the Jewish state from the energy dependence on Egypt, which imports exports gas to Israel. Taking into consideration that the political processes going on in Egypt since 2011 can bring to power “Muslim brothers”, who are of radical anti-Israeli orientation, discovering and processing of a gas field of its own has become for Israel an issue of paramount national importance.
CIA: Following Trends and Triggers: Estimating State Instability
Estimating state instability is more than warning. It is a structured analysis of instability types, their likelihood and potential impact on US national interests, and their most likely and most dangerous manifestations. This kind of analysis goes beyond determining probabilities. It also structures scenarios and evaluates the potential impact of events.
Sudan at the brink: Hidden hands behind the oil war
Sudan is caught in a multidimensional conflict involving weapons trade, internal instabilities, multiple civil wars and the reality of outside players with their own interests.
None of this is enough to excuse the readiness for war on behalf of Khartoum and Juba, but it certainly presents serious obstacles to any attempt aimed at rectifying the situation.
With a single act of aggression, a whole set of conflicts are prone to flaring up. It is the nature of proxy politics, as many armed groups seek opportunities for territorial advances and financial gains.
Europe’s Collapse Is Becoming Inevitable
For the first time in the history of the European Union, the collapse of the EU has become a realistic scenario. This was stated by the Chairman of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz. Speaking before the board of commissioners, Schulz drew their attention to the fact that the leaders of EU member states are not satisfied with the method of communitarian decision-making in favor of their “re-nationalization”.
Schultz expressed concern over the calls in France and Germany to restore border controls in the Schengen area and the growth of xenophobia in the EU.
Financier George Soros also predicted the imminent end of the euro and the European Union in general. In an interview with the French Le Figaro, Soros has compared the crisis in the European Zone with the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Brain scans of small group of people can predict actions of entire populations
Brain scans of a small group of people can predict the actions of entire populations, according to a new study by researchers from the University of Michigan, the University of Oregon and the University of California at Los Angeles.
The findings are relevant to political advertising, commercial market research and public health campaigns, and broaden the use of brain imaging from a diagnostic to a predictive tool.
Civil Unrest Leads Aon to Downgrade 37 Countries on Political Risk Map
Aon Risk Solutions, the global risk management business of Aon plc, has just issued its latest political risk map, which gauges the level of risk for international business in more than 200 countries. Aon said “37 countries were downgraded in the Aon 2012 Terrorism & Political Violence Map, largely due to civil unrest.”
The principle reason for the downgrades is linked to the “continued effects of the global economic crisis,” Aon said, “as austerity measures and spending cuts took hold, civil unrest, riots, strikes and student protests were witnessed across large parts of Europe.”
Expert: Azerbaijan preparing for war against Iran
The exercises Azerbaijan conducted in the Caspian Sea in the period
from April 12 to 20 are preparations for a war against Iran, Nver
Davtyan, specialist in Iranian studies, told media on April 21.
The State Frontier Service of Armenia conducted tactical exercises
“Protection of the oil and gas recovery regions in the Azerbaijani
sector of the Caspian Sea, pipelines, organization of protection in
case of a threat to oil and gas platforms, rescue operations.”
Uzbekistan & Tajikistan on the brink of war?
Without a mediator, the Tajik-Uzbek conflict could lead to another civil war in Tajikistan and to a serious destabilization of the whole of Central Asia. For Russia, this means it has to urgently develop a new strategy.
The relations between Dushanbe and Tashkent have worsened considerably lately and both countries are on the brink of open conflict as a result of this. Uzbekistan, knowing that Tajikistan is completely dependent on it has completely cut off the country from gas and transport. Tashkent claims that the blockade is purely economic: the Tajiks do not pay for the transit of gas and it is therefore more profitable to sell gas to the Chinese.
‘China and Russia are clearly aiming to become larger powers’
The US is still No.1, with China second and Russia just behind. Isn’t that a shift in the balance?
Does change the balance but the US and China have for quite some time been the two largest spenders globally speaking. Russia is the one that this year is changing a little bit the old balance. Russia had a large increase in 2011, and is now number 3. The European countries have been facing in a different way their own economic problems, and I think that’s why in some cases the picture of Europe shows more weakened economies with large deficits in some countries and in some small countries the impact has been even larger in terms of cuts to the military budgets.
Is NATO’s “Smart Defense” Program a Glass Half Full or Half Empty?
The NATO juggernaut is rolling forward to next month’s summit in Chicago. A key theme of the summit will be improvements to the Alliance’s capability to defend its members and meet evolving threats. NATO has promised concrete deliverables in Chicago including a long-term capability strategy for the so-called “Smart Defense” initiative which focuses on greater prioritization, specialization and cooperation among the NATO members so as to improve actual military capabilities. NATO has already announced that this strategy will consist of three parts: what is called a tangible package of multinational projects to address critical capability shortfalls; a set of longer-term multinational projects that include missile defense, Alliance ground surveillance and air policing; and, strategic projects for 2020 covering areas such as joint intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance and air-to-air refueling.
“Some Western forces try to include Azerbaijan in anti Iranian affairs”
“Some Western forces try to includeAzerbaijan in anti Iranian affairs. At the same time Azerbaijan is unable to act against Iran obviously”. Expert on Azerbaijan Sargis Asatryan announced about this during the press conference at “Armat” press-club today.
The speaker underlined the fact Azerbaijanhave got a great amount of weapon during the last time and added that the events in Caucasian countries make an image as if the countries are getting for the way.
Will EurAsEC grow into Eurasian economic union?
The last of the EurAsEC summit in Moscow demonstrated that for all the optimistic public statements, the integration processes are not advancing well in practice.
It was predicted that the summit will announce the replacement EurAsEC with full fledged Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). However, the results of the summit were more than modest – comprehensive agreement on formation of EEU can be signed only by January 1, 2015.
Is Turkey preparing for an intervention in Syria?
The short answer is yes. Although it won’t happen tomorrow or without assistance especially from the United States, which is evidently first going to allow Kofi Annan to try his luck getting Iran to broker a peace deal. But Abdullah Bozkurt, a columnist at Turkey’s Today Zaman newspaper, outlines the legal case for intervention that wouldn’t require UN Security Council authorisation (read: the say-so of Russia and China). This strikes me as the most likely set of events to unfold:
What will happen if the UN cannot get its act together, and Russia and China end up using their veto powers for the third time? Ankara will probably invoke the 1998 Adana agreement with Syria to justify the military interference while calling on NATO members for the application of the Article 5 of the NATO Charter, which says that an attack on any member shall be considered to be an attack on all.
In Syria, send in the mercenaries
he world community, including the United States, is at a crossroads about the right steps to forcefully prevent the further slaughter of civilians in Syria. There are many good reasons to intervene — to stop the death, detention and probable torture of any number of innocents; to support the democratic right of people to consent to rule by a freely elected government; and to avoid a repeat of the U.S. inaction that allowed Iran’s dictatorship to prevail in 2009.
There are just as many reasons not to intervene — the sovereignty of nations; the moral hazard of providing U.S. troops where our national interest does not dictate; and the uncertainty about those we would be helping take power. All the while, do-nothing diplomatic talks and easily ignored cease-fires continue to fail because the talking doesn’t change the facts on the ground.
Inside Russia: Putin’s Private National Guard
Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported that President-elect Vladimir Putin is poised to undertake the most significant reform Russia has seen in recent years by creating a National Guard from scratch. These special forces, numbering up to 400,000 men, would answer directly to the president and would be charged with protecting the country from internal threats.
As a result, Russia would resemble a classic South American or Middle Eastern dictatorship. Take, for example, Syria, where for decades men from the lower classes have had only two career options — a dead-end job with a state company or joining the troops that guard the president. Ironically, Putin is considering adopting such a system even after the entire world witnessed how the Libyan version of this model failed miserably, while the Syrian version of this model is headed toward a similar demise.
China Buys Inroads in the Caribbean, Catching U.S. Notice
China’s economic might has rolled up to America’s doorstep in the Caribbean, with a flurry of loans from state banks, investments by companies and outright gifts from the government in the form of new stadiums, roads, official buildings, ports and resorts in a region where the United States has long been a prime benefactor.
The Chinese have flexed their economic prowess in nearly every corner of the world. But planting a flag so close to the United States has generated intense vetting — and some raised eyebrows — among diplomats, economists and investors.
Color Revolution Cliff Notes: What’s the Best Way To Foment Unrest in a Foreign Country?
Shortly after the burning of Qurans at Bagram Air Force Base in Afghanistan became public in February, Iranian agents attempted to “instigate violent protests” inside the country, according to a story published Wednesday by the New York Times. Iran is often accused of instigating,fomenting, or stirring up violence and anti-Americanism in other countries. How, exactly, does a government go about fomenting violence?
With a mixture of videotapes, audio cassettes, and explosives. When U.S. missiles kill Afghan civilians, or U.S. forces commit an affront to Islam, Iran seeks to broadcast the news among the local population. Agents quickly generate and disseminate pieces of audio and video propaganda decrying the indignity and urging civilians to rise up against American forces. Some of these go beyond mere exhortations to violence
Our Men in Iran?
It was here that the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) conducted training, beginning in 2005, for members of the Mujahideen-e-Khalq, a dissident Iranian opposition group known in the West as the M.E.K. The M.E.K. had its beginnings as a Marxist-Islamist student-led group and, in the nineteen-seventies, it was linked to the assassination of six American citizens. It was initially part of the broad-based revolution that led to the 1979 overthrow of the Shah of Iran. But, within a few years, the group was waging a bloody internal war with the ruling clerics, and, in 1997, it was listed as a foreign terrorist organization by the State Department. In 2002, the M.E.K. earned some international credibility by publicly revealing—accurately—that Iran had begun enriching uranium at a secret underground location.
West’s intervention in Libya tipped Mali into chaos
When Western forces helped topple Libya’s Moamer Kadhafi they forced hundreds of well-armed Tuareg fighters to flee home to Mali, tipping another fragile African state into chaos, experts say.
And for some observers, the Western powers’ role in helping trigger the crisis now gives them a responsibility to help try to end it.
“It must be said and said again that the factor that unleashed all of this is the Western intervention in Libya,” said Eric Denece, director of the French Centre for Intelligence Research (CF2R), a think tank.
Silence kills, in Sri Lanka and Syria
Riding the tiger is an art that isn’t easy to master in the best of circumstances. While a tiger’s back may be the safest place to be when you are riding it, you should be ready for what comes when the ride inevitably ends.
There was a time when many in India, including the Tamil, identified with Tamil Tigers with the establishment and Indian agencies offering every possible support to “our boys.” The LTTE training camps in Tamil Nadu were a secret that no one bothered to hide.
This support proved crucial in the Tigers’ transformation into one of the deadliest and successful insurgent forces in recent history.
The Iran-Israel military sandwich
News often means the opposite of what it appears to say in the Middle East, as demonstrated by the “news bombing” over recent days regarding the Israel-Iran tensions. Reporting about the possible military attack on Iran and the story that Azerbaijan has given an air base to Israel has led to the Caucasus region, particularly Azerbaijan, becoming sandwiched by the rising Iran-Israel antagonism. New information anonymously leaked to the media, allegedly from former senior US diplomats and military intelligence officers, claims that Azerbaijan is allowing Israel to locate a military air base on its territory.
Myanmar Wants to Be the Next Tiger
Jim Rogers is bullish on Myanmar. The Singapore-based investor, chairman of Rogers Holdings, last month compared the Southeast Asian country today with China in 1979, just as Deng Xiaoping was launching the economic reforms that helped transform China into the world’s second-largest economy. With Myanmar’s authoritarian government finally starting on the road of reform, Rogers said, there’s no end to the possibilities for the country’s economy. “It’s right between China and India, 60 million people, massive natural resources, agriculture,” Rogers said. “You could feed much of Asia, they have metals, they have energy, they have everything.”
Mali Coup a New Step towards Global Resources Grab
The media uniformly stress that Mali is among the world’s poorest countries, which is basically true considering that it ranks 127th in the global GDP listing and 168th (of 179) (6) in terms of the index of human development (7). The ratings, however, should not overshadow the strategic importance and the economic potential of the territory of Mali. It borders seven other countries – Algeria, Mauritania, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Senegal – and sits on considerable natural reserves of gold, uranium, bauxites, iron, manganese, tin, and copper. According to fresh reports, the northern part of Mali is found to be rich in oil and, importantly, contains a usable underground water ecosystem.
Flashpoint Caucasus: Israel’s Secret Staging Ground
In 2009, the deputy chief of mission of the U.S. embassy in Baku, Donald Lu, sent a cable to the State Department’s headquarters in Foggy Bottom titled “Azerbaijan’s discreet symbiosis with Israel.” The memo, later released by WikiLeaks, quotes Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev as describing his country’s relationship with the Jewish state as an iceberg: “nine-tenths of it is below the surface.”
Why does it matter? Because Azerbaijan is strategically located on Iran’s northern border and, according to several high-level sources I’ve spoken with inside the U.S. government, Obama administration officials now believe that the “submerged” aspect of the Israeli-Azerbaijani alliance — the security cooperation between the two countries — is heightening the risks of an Israeli strike on Iran.
In particular, four senior diplomats and military intelligence officers say that the United States has concluded that Israel has recently been granted access to airbases on Iran’s northern border. To do what, exactly, is not clear. “The Israelis have bought an airfield,” a senior administration official told me in early February, “and the airfield is called Azerbaijan.”
NATO Could Not Handle Intervention in Syria
Calls are intensifying for the United States, NATO and the Arab League to intervene to halt the bloodbath being perpetrated in Syria. Commentators on both the Left and Right are castigating the Obama Administration for its seeming hypocrisy in refusing to act in Syria having done so in Libya. The same arguments that were made to justify intervention in Libya apply in spades to the situation in Syria.
The White House’s reluctance to intervene in Syria is based on two simple facts. The first of these is that Syria is not Libya. As Pentagon leaders have pointed out, Syria deploys four times the air defenses that were available to Libya. Syria has a real Army. Access to Syrian airspace would pose a greater challenge than was the case in Libya, particularly if Turkey isn’t involved.
The second reason is that NATO would be only a limited player in such an operation.
How Russia Plays the Great Game
Russia is playing a careful balancing game in Central Asia – stirring up worries about the U.S. military presence is just part of the game.
In keeping with their post-Soviet realpolitik, Russian officials consistently voice support for NATO’s Afghanistan mission. After all, they don’t
want NATO forces to withdraw from Afghanistan too soon for fear that the Afghan War burden will be dumped on them. But should the alliance’s stabilization effort succeed, Russians will be the first to demand the departure of Western troops. And in the meantime, Russian officials are determined to constrain NATO’s military presence in Eurasia by making it dependent on Moscow’s goodwill.
Flashpoint Region: Supply of Weapons to South Caucasus
The South Caucasus can no longer be viewed as a region in regard to which the balance of forces is arranged. The states of the south Caucasus were not given the opportunity to be more independent, their policy was practically aimed at the external actors.
In the course of a number of years the impression was that the United States and Russia mostly had shared goals. Now one can claim confidently that the United States, Russia and other great powers were interested in limited factors of the states of the South Caucasus because not only the possibility of ousting their opponents but also the possibility of holding active operations of political and military character is there, having a larger scale of importance than just regional.
How Oligarchy Wastes Armenia
t is difficult to guess how much money the government will spend on the parliamentary elections. I don’t mean the budget money – everything is clear with the costs of all the election campaign solutions, such as the social benefits for public servants, subsidy of car fuel for village people, the so-called tax amnesty etc.
I mean the costs which will not be reported anywhere. I mean the election bribes both for the majority system and proportional representation, the coalition candidates and lists of the RPA, BHP and OYP.
How India created Bangladesh & lessons for Sri Lanka
With a population of 1.2billion living across a landmass of 2973190 square kilometers, there is no denying India’s power. Yet, if not for its inferiority we cannot comprehend why India would desire to adopt a consistent policy and go to great lengths to destabilize each of its neighbors whilst pretending to be their friend.
The example of Bangladesh is perfect to describe the birth of Indian intelligence agency RAW tasked to partition Pakistan and create Bangladesh in 1971. It was in 1947 that 2 different countries were created – Pakistan and India. Muslims were divided into 2 countries bearing 2 different nationalities. West Pakistan was dominated by Punjabi’s while East Pakistan was the home to Sindhis, Pathans, Balochis and Mohajirs.
India’s arms mostly target Pakistan
India and China have never been serious military rivals. Never in history, other than the minor Sino-Indian Border Conflict of 1962, has India fought a sustained war with China. The probability of a future war between India and China is minimal. And that is so because the Great Himalayas run through the entire 3,380 km of the India-China border.
According to a report by Stratfor, the Texas-based private intelligence agency, “China has been seen as a threat to India, and simplistic models show them to be potential rivals. In fact, however, China and India might as well be on different planets. Their entire frontier runs through the highest elevations of the Himalayas. It would be impossible for a substantial army to fight its way through the few passes that exist, and it would be utterly impossible for either country to sustain an army there in the long term. The two countries are irrevocably walled off from each other.
Pentagon war game forecasts U.S. would be pulled into a new war if Israel strikes Iran
A classified Pentagon war game this month forecast that an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities would likely draw the United States into a wider regional war in which hundreds of American forces could be killed, the New York Times reported Tuesday.
The war games’ results have “raised fears among top American planners that it may be impossible to preclude American involvement in any escalating confrontation with Iran,” the Times Mark Mazzetti and Thom Shanker wrote.
Defense experts said the reported war games results are another attempted warning signal to Israel not to go it alone or risk harming relations with the United States.
Pakistani Generals Conjure up a New Terror body
Pakistan seems to be back with its old ways. Its policy of using terrorism as an instrument of foreign policy continues with regard to India. This is despite the right noises made recently by Pakistan in granting Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to India in trade by this year end and invigorating bilateral trade ties in a big way. Though Pakistan seems to have dumped its “Kashmir first, trade later” policy for good, the Pakistani Generals are focused on another ‘T’ – Terror.
Terrorist and extremist groups and leaders, guilty of several terrorist attacks, hosting Osama bin Laden and his al Qaida and killing hundreds of minorities in Pakistan, are now staging a major comeback with the backing of ISI and Pakistan Army.
Think tank: US intervention in Syria could require 300K troops, cost $300 billion
A think tank report says that U.S. intervention in Syria involving on-the-ground forces could require between 200,000 and 300,000 troops and cost up to $300 billion per year to be executed properly.
While no one is advocating a strategy involving an invasion, the report from the Brookings Institution’s Saban Center for Middle East Policy highlights the difficulties of accomplishing the Obama administration’s goal of removing Syrian President Bashar Assad from power.
To the Chinese and the Indians go … the spoils of war
The money and blood pit that is Afghanistan – where the United States and Britain have spent more than 2100 lives and £302 billion ($580 billion) – is about to pay a dividend.
But it won’t be going to the countries which have made this considerable sacrifice. The contracts to open up Afghanistan’s mineral and fossil-fuel wealth, and to build the railways that will transport it out of the country, are being won or pursued by China, India, Iran, and Russia.
China’s Force Multipliers?
China’s penchant for breaching technological barriers has been in the news and is frequently being discussed in many forums. It is obvious that China’s “Peaceful Development” has more to do with preparing for higher levels of war in many theatres while declaring to the world that it means peace. Unfortunately for China there are not many takers for this declaration amongst the comity of nations, where China seems to have more adversaries than friends.
There has been plenty of speculation about whether some of the critical technologies would indeed be game changers in any future conflict. This paper seeks to examine some of the critical technologies where there is demonstrated potential to be game changers. The hype and overestimation of how this would tilt the balance of power in favour of China is largely due to a lack of understanding of the present state of such developments, gestation period prior to operationalisation and the limitations thereof. Let us look at them one by one.
“Military Balance 2012” is published: regional conflicts are included
London international institute of strategic researches published the report “Military Balance 2012”. The report can be found on the official web-site of the institute.
“This year’s Military Balance sees further improvements to the book’s presentation, information and assessments. The land data sections have been revised to improve understanding of the combined-arms capabilities of modern land forces and the book carries extra detail on armies’ combat support, such as engineering assets. We analyse policy and defense economics questions for the countries with the largest defense budgets in greater detail than before. For many nations, the IISS this year includes brief textual summaries of countries’ military capabilities to help inform readers’ understanding of the numerical data. Also for the first time, the book has brief assessments of individual states’ cyber capacities, including relevant organisations and assessed capabilities.
Iran muscles in on Azerbaijan
Wars between Russia and Persia in the early 19th century ended the rule of local khans and established the present border between Azerbaijan and Iran, as the former was made part of the Russian Empire (and later Soviet Union) while “southern Azerbaijan” became part of the Persian Empire. Since 1991, the independent Republic of Azerbaijan has emerged as an autonomous player in Caspian Sea and world energy markets with significant offshore deposits of oil and gas.
With a population just over 9 million scattered over an area of 86,600 square kilometers (approximately the size of Portugal), including Nagorno-Karabakh, the 20% of Azerbaijan’s land surface occupied by Armenia since the 1994 ceasefire in the Nagorno-Karabakh War, Azerbaijan’s energy resources and geopolitical location have given it over the past two decades an international profile far higher than could otherwise be expected.
Beyond the Fall of the Syrian Regime
Syrians are approaching the one-year anniversary of what has become the most tragic, far-reaching and uncertain episode of the Arab uprisings. Since protesters first took to the streets in towns and villages across the country in March 2011, they have paid an exorbitant price in a domestic crisis that has become intertwined with a strategic struggle over the future of Syria.
The regime of Bashar al-Asad has fought its citizens in an unsuccessful attempt to put down any serious challenge to its four-decade rule, leaving several thousand dead. Many more languish in jail. The regime has polarized the population, rallying its supporters by decrying the protesters as saboteurs, Islamists and part of a foreign conspiracy.
US targeted at destabilizing situation in South Caucasus
Destabilization of the South Caucasus is within the U.S. plans and will be realized through the American Greater Middle East project, Polish expert Mateusz Piskorski told Armenian News-NEWS.am. According to him, it will be more real if the ruling regime in Syria falls.
“After the regime falls, a real war will be launched. Syria is the key partner of Iran in the region and Iran’s position will weaken if Syria’s authorities fall. Furthermore, the events will reflect into the South Caucasus,” the expert said.
FAR EAST FOCUS: China’s growing military presence has Russia on edge
In Moscow, China is increasingly seen as a threat. Aleksandr Khramchikhin, deputy director at the Institute for Political and Military Analysis in Moscow, and other defense analysts say that Russia, given its current military strength, cannot counter NATO on its west and China on its east.
The strength of the Russian military significantly weakened after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the social and economic turmoil that followed.
In contrast, China, drawing on its rapid economic growth, has successfully pursued military expansion.
Vladimir Putin: “Be strong: guarantee of national security for Russia”
The world is changing. Going it processes global transformation fraught with risks of different, often unpredictable nature. In terms of global economic and other shocks is always a temptation to solve their problems at the expense of others, by the force of pressure. Not by chance that today there are voices that say, soon, “objective” will be a question that national sovereignty should not be subject to the resources of global importance.
That even such hypothetical possibilities with regard to Russia should not be. That means – we will not have to enter into the temptation of their weaknesses.
Analysis: The system will provoke a revolution in Russia
There is already a number of factors that work to decay and disintegration of the system. First – it is the volatility of oil prices, which could undermine our stability at any time, as soon as the price of oil close to $ 70 dollars per barrel. The second – starting collapse of the Soviet industrial structure. Third – the very fact that raskochegarennye hope people, pensioners and working to improve the material status is not justified. reserve fund will be depleted by the end of 2012.
Is China Ripe for a Revolution?
ONE HUNDRED years ago, on Feb. 12, 1912, the 6-year-old child emperor of the Qing Dynasty abdicated, ending more than 2,000 years of imperial rule in China. But this watershed moment for modern China will not be widely celebrated in the People’s Republic. The political climate in Beijing is tense as the ruling Communist Party prepares for a secretive transition to the next generation of leaders, with the untested vice president, Xi Jinping, expected to become president. Reminders of past regime change and the end of dynasties are not welcome.
India Upgrades Military to Match China
India has decided to buy 126 fighter jets from France, taken delivery of a nuclear-powered submarine from Russia and prepared for its first aircraft carrier in recent weeks as it modernizes its military to match China’s.
India and China have had tensions since a 1962 border war, and New Delhi has watched with dismay in recent years as Beijing has increased its influence in the Indian Ocean.
Bold Alligator: Massive 11-Nation Military Drill Aimed At Fending Off Iran In The Straits of Hormuz
The scenario was part of Bold Alligator, an 11-nation training exercise involving upwards of 19,000 troops.
While the scenario may have been a fiction, the reality for all involved is a shifting military focus, as the US and other participating nations are increasingly watchful of coastal areas of the Middle East – in particular Iran – and countries like China and North Korea in the Pacific.
The Bold Alligator exercise involves scenarios of mine warfare, fighting in shallow water and fending off attacks from smaller boats; methods known to be familiar to the Iranian Navy.
Is Jordan Next? MENA Civil Unrest
The Exclusive Analysis special report states that, “there is a low but increasing risk in the 6-12 month outlook, that in the face of unmanageable mass civil unrest, key elements of the security forces and the Hashemite family would be driven to depose King Abdullah II, in an attempt to appease protesters, while preserving the Hashemite monarchy. The Jordan civil unrest risk score has increased to 3.2 (severe risk) on Exclusive Analysis’s Foresight Country Risk online platform.
In October 2011, the Retired Military Veterans’ Movement, made up of East Bank tribes, criticised Prime Minister Khasawneh, appointed by King Abdullah, for not reforming electoral law and ‘not confronting threats to national identity’.
Oil war in South Atlantic: Great Britain vs. Latin America
At present a new escalation of tension between Argentina and Great Britain is being intensively discussed in the media. Does it mean that Las Malvinas (the Folkland Islands for Great Britain) may become the theater of war again? In the current situation a new war may become even fiercer – the reserves of the oil and gas fields which were discovered on the shelf of the archipelago are comparable with the reserves of the oil fields in the North Sea. The British experts, who estimate the reserves at 60 billion barrels, are probably lowering the real figure in order not to tease Argentine people.
Offshore Free-Fire Zone Everywhere: The Plan to End National Sovereignty as We Know It
For Washington, “offshore” means the world’s boundary-less waters and skies, but also, more metaphorically, it means being repositioned off the coast of national sovereignty and all its knotty problems. This change, on its way for years, will officially rebrand the planet as an American free-fire zone, unchaining Washington from the limits that national borders once imposed. New ways to cross borders and new technology for doing it without permission are clearly in the planning stages, and U.S. forces are being reconfigured accordingly.
Think of the raid that killed Osama bin Laden as a harbinger of and model for what’s to come. It was an operation enveloped in a cloak of secrecy. There was no consultation with the “ally” on whose territory the raid was to occur. It involved combat by an elite special operations unit backed by drones and other high-tech weaponry and supported by the CIA. A national boundary was crossed without either permission or any declaration of hostilities.
Run-up to proxy war over Syria
The Syrian situation has evolved since October and has surged as a geopolitical struggle over the future of the Iranian regime, control of the Middle East’s oil and the perpetuation of the West’s preponderant influence in that region. Russia and China sense that they could be booted out of the Middle East.
With the double veto, the only option available for the US and its allies in Syria is to flout both international law and the UN charter and overthrow the regime in Damascus. Indeed, the option exists to backtrack from the path of covert intervention, but it is a remote possibility.
US Intelligence: India may be drawn into ‘limited war’ with China
“The Indian Army believes a major Sino-Indian conflict is not imminent, but the Indian military is strengthening its forces in preparation to fight a limited conflict along the disputed border, and is working to balance Chinese power projection in the Indian Ocean,” a PTI report quoted him as saying.
Clapper said India has expressed support for a strong US military posture in East Asia and US engagement in Asia. He said China in 2011 appeared to temper the assertive behavior that characterised its foreign policy the year before, but the internal and external drivers of that behaviour persist.
Smaller ‘stans fret at Russia’s dominance
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia’s two smallest economies, are discovering that breaking free of Russian domination is a hard task, particularly when they lack their own hydrocarbon resources and struggle to forge good relations with other neighbors that might make up for that shortage.
Russian oil supplies meet more than 90% of Kyrgyzstan’s and Tajikistan’s oil needs, but Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are rich in hydrocarbon resources and could potentially overtake Russia as the two smaller countries’ main source of petroleum and other fossil-fuel supplies.
The Dangerous Idea of NATO Expansion Will Not Die
If anything, the reasons for keeping Georgia out of NATO are stronger than ever. Trying to bring Georgia into the alliance does not enhance European security in any way, and Russia would still regard it as an intolerable provocation. Just as it did not in April 2008 during the Bucharest summit, Georgia still does not have full control of its territory. It is ridiculous to ask members of the alliance to extend an Article V guarantee to a country with ongoing territorial disputes. Those disputes are farther from being resolved than ever. It is even harder to justify including Georgia in the alliance when its government was largely responsible for escalating the conflict in 2008. Georgia would be an enormous liability for the alliance and would add nothing to it.
Year of The Water Dragon: 12 Chinese Maritime Developments to Look for in 2012
China has now entered the Year of the Dragon. According to traditional geomancy, for the first time since 1952, the year will be associated with the element water. Sixty years ago, in the throes of the Korean War, Beijing could scarcely have been further from the water. Today, however, China’s shipyards are humming and the PLA Navy (PLAN) is sustaining operations half a world away in the Gulf of Aden.
Beginning with the major potential newsmakers, here are 12 key things to watch for and what they mean:
Russian Sixth Generation Warfare and Recent Developments
While press attention on developments in Russia focused on the disputed parliamentary elections and the following protests, which seemed to revive political activism in Moscow and other urban centers, there have been some military developments that deserve some attention. One such theme is an old topic, sixth generation warfare and its impact upon the nuclear threshold – do advanced conventional systems, which approach nuclear effects, blur the line on nuclear deterrence? The Russian press has had several recent articles that suggest this issue is becoming more acute.
The Eurasian Triple Entente: Touch Iran in a War, You Will Hear Russia and China
Despite the areas of difference and the rivalries between Moscow and Tehran, Russian and Iranian ties are increasing. Both Russia and Iran share many commonalities. They are both major energy exporters, have deeply seated interests in the South Caucasus, oppose NATO’s missile shield, and want to keep the U.S. and E.U. from controlling the energy corridors around the Caspian Sea Basin. Moscow and Tehran also share many of the same allies, from Armenia, Tajikistan, and Belarus to Syria and Venezuela. Yet, above all things, both republics are also two of Washington’s main geo-strategic targets.
World Economic Forum: Global experts fear geopolitical disruption
The bleak outlook at the start of this year is shared by a majority of 345 respondents from business, government, international organisations and academia.
“A major geopolitical disruption early in the new year would certainly tip the global economy in the wrong direction given current confidence levels,” said Lee Howell, the managing director at the WEF responsible for the Forum’s Global Risks Report 2012.
“The possibility of a geoeconomic disruption, such as sovereign default, is to some degree reflected in the market, but a major geopolitical disruption clearly is not,” added Howell.
Eurasian Union and Russia’s Geostrategic Stability
US top foreign-policy strategist and a die-hard Russophobe Zbigniew Brzeziński had a point when he wrote in The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives that “Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire. Russia without Ukraine can still strive for imperial status, but it would then become a predominantly Asian imperial state”, moreover, a one under permanent pressure from Central Asian republics and China. He also stressed quite appropriately therein that “However, if Moscow regains control over Ukraine, with its 52 million people and major resources as well as its access to the Black Sea, Russia automatically again regains the wherewithal to become a powerful imperial state, spanning Europe and Asia”.
David Arkhangelski : “Azerbaijan is a potential market for armament and military technology”
There are series of fields where Azerbaijan and Georgia should boost cooperation. Security zone is a many critical as we face a lot of identical threats like terrorisms, trafficking and solidified conflicts.
Azerbaijan has a really engaging and quick building military-industrial complex. Georgia would be meddlesome in a technological team-work with your country. Azerbaijan is also a intensity marketplace for armament and troops technology.
I would like to underline a significance of a preparation in counterclaim field, sell programs and knowledge pity would be profitable for both a countries.
Vladimir Putin’s support of spying is of Cold War calibre
Russian spies haven’t been this visibly active since the height of the Cold War.
“Much of this goes on sub rosa and never comes to public view,” said Wesley Wark, a University of Toronto security expert.
“But the general view is that the post-Soviet Russian state remains wedded to a very intensive overseas intelligence collection effort. The Putin administration in particular seems extremely keen on investing in foreign intelligence, which is perhaps not very surprising, given his KGB background.” (Mr. Putin is a former KGB spy, who was stationed in Dresden, East Germany, in 1985-90.)
EU in uncharted legal waters on Scottish independence
Last week’s announcement by Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond that he intends to hold a referendum on Scotland’s independence in 2014 implies uncharted legal territory for the EU.
A newly independent Scotland would raise a number of thorny questions around its relations with the European Union – including whether it would have to fully renegotiate membership and whether it would be obliged to become a member of the euro.
For the EU itself, the issue would present a political and legal conundrum.
Russia’s Iran war games: responding to threats, or making them?
There’s been some interesting reporting on Russia’s annual ‘Kavkaz’ war games and their connection with the situation in Iran. Unlike previous years, the exercises – scheduled for the autumn – are explicitly designed with events ‘in the Persian Gulf’ (i.e. Iran) in mind. Specifically, they revolve around the scenario that a US-Israeli attack on Iran creates ‘spillover’, that old buzzword of the armchair general, in the Caucasus.
Significantly, this year’s exercises will probably not be confined to Russian soil: they will include components in the Georgia’s breakaway, Russian-backed territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and maybe in Armenia too.
Azerbaijan ‘must not be platform for strikes on Iran’
I think that a large scale war between Iran and the US and its allies will not happen yet. Everything is leading to the Americans and their allies launching pinpoint strikes on a number of Iran’s military and strategic facilities. This is regardless of the fact that Iran is not like Iraq and Libya and, therefore, the US and its allies will face the most serious resistance. And all of this will fill Azerbaijan with refugees and bring the region face to face with a humanitarian and ecological catastrophe.
The Turkish-Iranian partition of the Middle East
During the last decade many right-wing American and Israeli analysts have described the geo-strategic struggles unfolding in the Middle East as a new “Cold War” pitting the United States against Shiite Iran. They have warned of an Arab “Shiite Crescent” ― stretching from Lebanon to Iraq ― connected to Iran via ties of religion, commerce and geostrategy.
The new year has started with an attempted Shiite power play by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to dominate the Iraqi government, and an Iranian demonstration of missile and nuclear fuel rod capacity coupled with threats to close the Straits of Hormuz if Iranian oil exports are blocked. These events can be interpreted as ample evidence of Iranian expansionism and combined with fears that Iran will obtain a nuclear weapon, rendering its present regime and regional clients untouchable.
China and India: Rival Middle East strategies
Claiming that a great deal of uncertainty hangs over the contemporary security/strategic environment in the Middle East is neither a novel statement nor an exaggeration. Although it is commonly acknowledged that the regional politics will have a stronger Islamic flavour in the years ahead, it is not at all clear how various Islamic parties will conduct themselves once in government, and how their political activism will affect extremist groups in the region and beyond. Similarly, while there is a general consensus that US power in the region is waning, the trajectory of this expected demise is yet to be determined; will it be a sudden fall or will it be a gradual one?
Danger Waters: The Three Top Hot Spots of Potential Conflict in the Geo-Energy Era
In the years to come, the location of energy supplies and of energy supply routes — pipelines, oil ports, and tanker routes — will be pivotal landmarks on the global strategic map. Key producing areas, like the Persian Gulf, will remain critically important, but so will oil chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca (between the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea) and the “sea lines of communication,” or SLOCs (as naval strategists like to call them) connecting producing areas to overseas markets. More and more, the major powers led by the United States, Russia, and China will restructure their militaries to fight in such locales.
Zbigniew Brzezinksi: 8 Geopolitically Endangered Species That Will Suffer From America’s Decline
With the decline of America’s global preeminence, weaker countries will be more susceptible to the assertive influence of major regional powers. India and China are rising, Russia is increasingly imperially minded, and the Middle East is growing ever more unstable. The potential for regional conflict in the absence of an internationally active America is real. Get ready for a global reality characterized by the survival of the strongest.
U.S. debt is now equal to entire economy
The amount of money the federal government owes to its creditors, combined with IOUs to government retirement and other programs, now tops $15.23 trillion.
That’s roughly equal to the value of all goods and services the U.S. economy produces in one year: $15.17 trillion as of September, the latest estimate. Private projections show the economy likely grew to about $15.3 trillion by December — a level the debt is likely to surpass this month.
Balance of Power: Changing Geometrics of Asia-Pacific & Containment of China
Asia-Pacific, as the name suggests, refers to a large part of the earth, whereby countries and continents surround the vast Pacific Ocean. More than being merely a geographical entity, this region has many strategic, economic & political connotations to it. Groupings like ASEAN, ASEAN+3, EAS, APEC etc. provide the various contexts in which the politics, economics and security of the region is defined.
Importance of this region can be gauged from the fact that the countries in Asia-Pacific account for over 40% of the world’s population, 55% of the world’s GDP and about 45% of global trade. And these numbers are rapidly growing.
Report: Israel could take out Iran’s nuclear infrastructure ‘in two days’
A report by a leading aide to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the
Israel Air Force could destroy most of Iran’s infrastructure in two days.
The report by Yoaz Hendel, a senior adviser to Netanyahu, said air strikes
could be augmented by naval operations.
“The Israeli Air Force is capable of striking the necessary targets with two to three full squadrons of fighter-bombers with escorts to shoot down enemy aircraft,” the report titled “Iran’s Nukes and Israel’s Dilemma,” said. “However, most of the escorts will require refueling to strike the necessary targets in Iran. In addition, the Israelis can make use of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles from their Dolphin-class submarines.”
Eurasia Group’s Top Risks for 2012
As we begin 2012, political risks dominate global headlines in a way we’ve not experienced in decades. Everywhere you look in today’s global economy, concerns over insular, gridlocked, or fractured politics affecting markets stare back at you. Continuation of the politically driven crisis in the eurozone appears virtually guaranteed. There is profound instability across the Middle East. Grassroots opposition to entrenched governments is spreading to countries such as Russia and Kazakhstan that were thought more insulated. Nuclear powers North Korea and Pakistan (and soon Iran?) face unprecedented internal political pressure.
Turkey: Cold War v2.0
Amidst its growing engagement in the Middle East and the Arab Spring, as well as its resurrecting Kurdish insurgency problem, Turkey
installed the NATO Missile Defense Shield in September 2011. Many observers interpreted Turkey’s decision as a move against Iran, as a
response to its expanding nuclear and missile capabilities, while Turkish officials indicated that the installment of this missile
shield in Turkey was agreed upon much earlier and has nothing to do with Iran. The purpose of the missile shield also exposed differences
within NATO countries.
Why Putin failed and the Russian democrats may too: The Sources and Risks of Russia’s White Revolution
It is yet unclear what the exact outcome of the current upheaval in Moscow will eventually be. Nonetheless, speaking of an – at least, attempted – Color Revolution is already justified. To be sure, neither will Russia’s possible White Revolution become a real revolution, nor were the other Color Revolutions fully fledged revolutionary upheavals. Yet, we have now, in Russia, the typical pattern of mass protests after a falsified election that partly delegitimizes the incumbent leadership – a sequence similar to, though not (yet) identical with, what we observed in Serbia in 2000, Georgia in 2003, Ukraine in 2004 and Kyrgysztan in 2005 – as well as, perhaps, the Arab world, more recently. Why is the Putin system which looked stable as recently as a year ago currently failing? And what are the risks for the re-emerging democratic movement in Russia?
Analysis: Saber-rattling in Strait of Hormuz
It is just 34 miles (55 kilometers) wide and dotted with islands and rocky outcrops, a channel that links the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean. Like many marine “chokepoints,” the Strait of Hormuz has long commanded the attention of empires and their navies.
And in recent decades it has become even more critical: one-third of the oil carried by sea passes through Hormuz — that’s some 15 million barrels every day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Now Iran’s Vice-President is warning that the Islamic Republic could block the Strait if sanctions are imposed on its exports of crude. France, Britain and Germany have proposed such sanctions as punishment for Iran’s lack of co-operation on its nuclear program.
Chinese Politburo’s Official Statement: The West tries out old tricks in Russia
The West assumes that the disintegration of the Soviet Union was the result of its victory in the Cold War. It hopes that with Western support, separatists and criminals will take the next step to cause the collapse of Russia. In their writings, American politicians such as political scientist and former national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski and former secretary of state Madeleine Albright have described scenarios of an expected collapse of Russia and even redrawn its national borders.
Putin, who posed the main geopolitical obstacle to the realization of such goals, outlined the strategy for Russia’s revival and consolidation of its status as an important independent country that would cooperate with other countries, including the US, on the principle of equal rights.
Is Russia on the verge of an ‘Egypt scenario’?
Some 80,000 Russians took to the streets of Moscow on December 24, calling for Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to step down and the December 4 parliamentary elections to be rerun fairly. There were a larger number of demonstrators than at a similar gathering on December 10 on Bolotnaya Square – but even more importantly, their demographic and political diversity indicated that the rally gathered support well beyond the ‘Facebook generation.’
The respected Levada Centre surveyed attendees and found that two-fifths were over 40 years old. The next-largest demographic was 23-39 year-olds (31.0%), followed by 18-24 year-olds (24.5%). Between two-thirds and four-fifths wanted Putin to leave office, the parliamentary elections to be cancelled, criminal charges to be brought against those who carried out election fraud and a new, liberal electoral law to be adopted.
Potentially explosive movements on a volatile Asian chessboard
A new era of increasing instability is opening in East Asia.
The death of North Korean leader Kim Il-Jong is only adding another, if explosive, element to an already volatile equation:
China enters a period of substantially slower economic growth, if not a crash, on the eve next autumn of a takeover by a new generation of undistinguished Communist Party leaders.
Japan wrestles with efforts to remake its domestic politics, but buoyed by its always magnificent; if constipated; bureaucracy, pursues a security buildup despite, ironically, a left-leaning governing party precariously clinging to power.
Fallout is just beginning in North Korea
There are many surprising things about Kim Jong-il’s sudden death, not the least of which is that it took two days for the rest of the world to hear about it. Yet most surprising is the sanguine reaction of the global and especially the Asian markets. On Monday, or actually Sunday as we now know, the world woke up to its first leaderless nuclear power. Coming as close as anyone could to filling his seat was his youngest son, who is in his late twenties. There’s no way these facts were accurately priced into markets that took just a relatively minor dip as a first response. The news from North Korea appears to have been taken far too lightly, and just a few days out, it’s disappearing from the front pages.
Central Asia Focus of Russia-China Rivalry
The years to come will see Central Asia at the centre of an economic competition as traditional ally Russia tries to regain ground from an increasingly powerful Chinese presence, a leading Italian expert on the region says.
IWPR asked Fabio Indeo, a research fellow at the University of Camerino who specialises in the geopolitics of Central Asia and the competition of external players for influence in the region, to comment on the growing role of China, and how Moscow is trying to counter it.
Russian Military Post in Armenia Cut, Russia Preparing for Iranian Invasion: Analysis
More than a year ago, Russia began to take steps to minimize losses from a possible military action against Tehran, and now preparations are nearly complete. The Russian military base in Armenia is fully optimized, military families have been evacuated from the country, the Russian garrison stationed near Yerevan has been cut, and military units have been moved to Gyumri, closer to the Turkish border. The US troops can hit targets in Iran from Turkey, writes Russian news source Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
In connection with the prospect of war against Iran, Russia’s Ministry of Defense is wary of Azerbaijan, which in the past three years has doubled its military budget, acquiring Israeli drones and other advanced means of intelligence. In addition, Baku has stepped up pressure on Moscow, demanding that it pay more in rent for the use of its Gabala radar station.
Russian expert: Iran will be apparently attacked from Georgia’s territory
The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq is a sign of future war against Iran, according to head of the Center for Strategic Research into Contemporary Religion and Politics.
“Should the U.S. forces remain in Iraq, it would inevitably lead to unpredictable consequences, with Iran striking heavy blows on the U.S. bases,” Maxim Shevchenko told vesti.az.
‘Blow-fly zone’ takes hold over Syria
Russia’s announcement of major Mediterranean drills, is designed to prevent another attempt at manufacturing cover for an invasion, or lighter warmaking, such as an embargo on arms and ammunition, jamming of military communications, or sabotage. Russian officials say that there is no special plan for the Admiral Kuznetsov to call on the Syrian port of Tartus.
The blow flies this time are being sent in to sniff and snuff out the prospects, before Assad and his men are corpses. The blow-fly zone is a Russian military trip-wire – the first such strategic move outside the borders of the old Soviet Union for more than 20 years.
It isn’t known whether (but it can be expected that) they will be supported under the Mediterranean by hunter-killer submarines to add uncertainty and nervousness for the British and US submarines around the US surface squadron, already in position in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Eurasian Union as an attempt to restore the Soviet Union. Part I
In order to implement the ultimate objective it was deemed necessary:
- To unite representative of the media of the post-Soviet space, which against the background of the last 20 years of political battles and geopolitical changes, is not easy;
- To begin establishing relations with a view of their subsequent strengthening, which in turn implies choosing relevant, more or less favourably disposed to the Kremlin media sources in these countries – and this too is not easy;
- Gradual selection of participants in the project framework and awakening a favourable approach toward Russia in them, as well as a desire to participate in future meetings and the timing of the announcement of final objectives
Thinking the Unthinkable: How to Break Up the Euro Area
The unthinkable is becoming possible. Until recently, the breakup of the euro area seemed nothing but an illusion, but suddenly this possibility is a clear and evident danger. If the euro area is to be broken up, it should be done as amicably, cleanly, symmetrically —and as fast as possible.
A collapse of the euro only a dozen years after its introduction would be a great folly. But as Wolfgang Munchau of the Financial Times has pointed out, such a risk is steadily rising and policymakers need to consider how to minimize the damage of such an economic disaster.
Collapses of currency zones are usually very painful, and a dissolution of the euro area will be no exception.
Arabs, Turks attempt to redefine Arab uprisings, political trajectories
It was the 25th in a series of gatherings organized by Zirve University and the Abant Platform, yet this time participants found a rare opportunity to discuss political developments elsewhere and the possible role Turkey might have in this political turmoil.
Comprising largely Turkish intellectuals both from Turkey and from around the world, Arab and Western commentators, activists and professors also joined in during the three-day event. Discussions primarily centered on redefining the Arab Spring, ways to cushion the pain of the transition period in post-revolution Arab nations and Turkey’s contribution to political developments participants hoped signaled the birth pangs of consolidated democracies.
Why is Turkey Betting Big on the Syrian Uprising?
A new Syrian regime sympathetic to Turkey, would plug the last whole in Turkey’s quest for regional hegemony.
On the security front, Syria has remained the only country which has failed to cooperate with the Turkish war against Kurdish separatists, many of whom are said to now be funded and supported by the Assad Regime in retaliation for Erdogan’s policies.
Economically, Syria has remained one of Turkey’s largest trading partners, and a Sunni regime in place of Assad would ensure clear waters for future development of ties.
Lastly, the loss of the Allawite regime would constitute a major loss for Iran, Turkey’s primary non-Arab contender for regional domination, cutting off its primary hub in the Mediterranean Sea.
NATO-Pakistan: New path of confrontation
Pakistan is not a NATO member state, but rather a strategic partner in military operations in Afghanistan. Islamabad and NATO have concluded an intelligence data exchange agreement.
U.S.-Pakistani relations were spoilt after the liquidation of Osama bin Laden on May 2, 2011. As Bin Laden had lived near Islamabad, Washington suspected the Pakistani authorities of providing assistance to the international criminal.
The bilateral relations were tested on Nov. 26.
Do Oligarchies Create Insurgencies?
One of the tenets of pop-centric COIN is that better governance will deliver the loyalty of the people who are the center of gravity over whom the insurgent and state contest. This usually means cajoling the state to reform and remove the worst abuses that serve to politically fuel the insurgency. Occasionally this is successful (El Salvador), frequently it is not (South Vietnam, Afghanistan) and in other cases it may be irrelevant as the method is eschewed in favor of indiscriminate brute force and punitive expeditions (Sri Lanka, Soviet COIN) but it begs the question of:
“What kind of governance is most likely to create insurgencies in the first place?”
Breakdown: Russia sends aircraft carrier to Lebanon, Syria
In December a vessel group led by the Northern Fleet’s aircraft carrier “Admiral Kuznetsov” will sail to the Mediterranean and the Russian naval base of Tartus in Syria.
The mission has nothing to do with the deadly violence in Syria between forces loyal to President Bashar Assad and the opposition, a naval spokesman told Izvestia.
- This was planned already in 2010 when there were no such events there. There has been active preparation and there is no need to cancel this, the spokesman said, adding that “Admiral Kuznetsov” will also visit Beirut, Genoa and Cyprus.
On pins and needles and missiles in Tehran
On Nov. 12, two massive blasts at a nearby town rocked Tehran, the Iranian capital, and may have been an attempt to assassinate the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had been scheduled to be there at the time of the explosions. Now Israel and the West must be prepared for possible Iranian retaliation.
After the explosions, Iranians found themselves wondering whether Israel had attacked. The recent report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Iran’s nuclear weapons program and the warnings of military action by Israeli officials have alarmed Iranians about the threat of war.
The simultaneous explosions, which hit the Iranian Revolutionary Guards base 28 miles west of Tehran, not only shook the surrounding area but were heard and felt throughout Tehran, even breaking car and building windows.
Syria: Military Intervention A La Carte
After nine months of brutal repression that has killed over 3,500 people—the vast majority being nonviolent protestors—Syrian opposition groups are escalating the frequency and variety of their demands for international military support. What form that external intervention might take, what the intended military and political objectives would be, and what countries may contribute, remain altogether unclear.
On Thursday, Colonel Riyadh al-Assad, chief of the Free Syrian Army (FSA)—an armed opposition group of reportedly 15,000 Syrian soldiers who defected—explained:
“We are not in favor of the entry of foreign troops as was the case in Iraq but we want the international community to give us logistical support. We also want international protection, the establishment of a no-fly zone, a buffer zone and strikes on certain strategic targets considered as crucial by the regime.”
Analysis: Syria and the unfolding hegemonic game
In spite of mounting international and regional pressure on Bashar al-Assad’s regime, there is still no real prospect of a quick end to the on-going instability and instead Syria is set to enter a long and bloody civil war. And as political stalemate continues, a genuinely regional hegemonic contest between Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey over this small but strategically important nation has begun to unfold.
Since the fall of Mubarak, Saudis have decided to drastically reduce their reliance on the US for securing their foreign policy interests. Riyadh has not only begun to strengthen its armed forces, but it has also decided to use its petro-dollar more aggressively seeking to buy influence in return for the provision of generous financial assistance.
Former Mossad Head Yatom: Israel Can’t Afford Not to Strike Iran
The Begin Sadat Center, a respected think tank based at Bar Ilan University, held a conference on November 23, 2011 on the subject of “Israeli Security in a New Regional Envornment”, which focused on the so-called “Arab Spring” and its implicatons. Its experts concluded that the Arab Spring is not going to result in democracy, despite original hopes in the West, and may make things even worse for Israel.
“As steep as the price for hitting Iran may be, a military strike on Iran will be less painful than the cost of living with an Iranian nuclear weapons threat,” argues former Mossad head Maj. Gen. (res.) Danny Yatom. “The backlash from a strike on Iran’s nuclear sites will not be as bad for Israel as will an Iran armed with nuclear weapons,” he says. “I don’t think that those predicting apocalyptic repercussions of a strike on Tehran are correct, and even if they are, Israel can’t afford to wonder if Tehran will go crazy and bomb us.”
China Spending Big Money To Avoid Arab Spring Fever
China’s ruling Communist Party is looking within for threats to its control over the country, spending more money on securing its population of over one billion than it did on its military last year, according to a new report to the U.S. Congress.
Conflicts in the Middle East with the popular Arab Spring movement have done nothing to assuage the government’s fears, according to the report from a Congressional advisory panel.
“The party has created an extensive police and surveillance network to monitor its citizens and react to any potential threat to stability,” the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission stated in the report.
After the US pulls out, will CIA rely more on Afghan mercenaries?
Part of the job description for Americans left behind after 2014, in the words of the US government’s latest counterterrorism strategy document, will be tackling Al Qaeda and its adherents by using covert tactics that go “beyond traditional intelligence, military, and law enforcement functions.”
Security analysts say that the practice of raising paramilitary units, trained by US Special Operations Forces, run and funded by the CIA, and working closely with local intelligence officials, fits that bill perfectly.
Zenko analyzes military strategy
The use of specialized military force operations, including unmanned drones and localized airstrikes, is not an effective long-term strategy to combat insurgency problems given the “persistent era of conflict” that nations across the world face today, Micah Zenko, a conflict prevention fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, a nonpartisan think tank, said in a lecture Thursday afternoon in the Haldeman Center.
Zenko identified 36 cases of Discrete Military Operations, defined as limited strikes against insurgency forces, conducted by the United States military since 1991. While 16 operations were successful, six produced “mixed” results, five proved “inconclusive” and nine failed to meet the military’s desired objective, he said.
SR FlashPoint Analysis 2012/1: History repeats itself, Dire straits in Hormuz
Iran has set the stage for their own demise when they foolishly positioned themselves in the Straits of Hormuz. History has repeated itself once again and those who are students of history are patiently waiting for things to unfold as they should. From the Middle East to Middle America you can cut the tension with a knife. Iran has passed their Rubicon but no one is entirely sure how deep the ramifications will be felt and just how much they will reverberate and permeate autocratic leadership in the gulf.